(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Deltasquid posted:Plus you’d either have to take the Eastern Bloc’s pre-1990 statistics at face value (lol. Lmao, even) or you’d have to exclude Eastern Europe from your statistics to avoid comparing pre-1990 apples to post-1990 pears Yes indeed, I was earlier phone posting and had difficulty in writing what I meant. There's a 'countries' missing there too... In theory and I suppose also often in practise there was zero unemployment in the socialist block. It doesn't mean that everyone was working, though, they just weren't unemployed. My primary school teacher told this story when I was kid, about his trip to socialist Poland. At the airport he witnessed a jeep of some kind driving to a flag pole to raise the flag, and there were three workers in the vehicle. He then said that there was zero unemployment there and winked. Weeeelll, I wouldn't take anecdotal account at face value because I too have experienced in market capitalist system that some times it's worth it to put lots of guys in one car and send them to do a simple task, because AFTER THAT they go to their actual destination where everyone's input is needed. Some inefficiency happens in every system, but some of it is acceptable because it would be even more inefficient to split the team in two parts with their own vehicles. So my teacher was bullshitting to make a point. I guess it worked because I still remember it so well. But the matter remains that under socialist system no one is left without a worker status, even if there is no work. Like a ferry driver who has no ferry but still has the ferry driver's hut so he can go to spend his days there watching the river. And like you say, under a one party rule official statistics are what they are. There's just no continuity. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Apr 27, 2024 |
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Apr 27, 2024 22:08
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Nenonen posted:
There was a saying in socialist Poland addressing that phenomenon - "whether you lie or stand, you deserve two grand"
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Apr 27, 2024 22:37
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Nenonen posted:My primary school teacher told this story when I was kid, about his trip to socialist Poland. At the airport he witnessed a jeep of some kind driving to a flag pole to raise the flag, and there were three workers in the vehicle. He then said that there was zero unemployment there and winked.
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Apr 28, 2024 00:17
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Back Hack posted:everything in power have this thing categorize as a light reconnaissance vehicle. It is mobile protected firepower  They came a hair’s breadth from just calling it a mobile field gun bunker.
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Apr 28, 2024 04:36
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Szarrukin posted:There was a saying in socialist Poland addressing that phenomenon - "whether you lie or stand, you deserve two grand" V. nice translation.
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Apr 28, 2024 06:57
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I've only heard the five grand version, must have been adjusted for inflation  Very nice translation, even keeping the rhyme.
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Apr 28, 2024 08:55
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Mr. Apollo posted:I remember reading that cars from the eastern bloc, like the Trabant, were designed to be inefficient to produce so the factories would require a lot of workers. So, while the countries had lots of employment, their productivity rates were low compared to western countries.
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Apr 28, 2024 15:13
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM
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Apr 28, 2024 16:29
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:I’ve read similar anecdotes that factory output was often measured in tons not units, so it was better as a factory manager to make 100 refrigerators that weighed 100kg each than to make 150 refrigerators weighing 50kg each. Then you could tell your boss you produced 10 tons of refrigerators instead of 7.5 tons and get promoted, or similarly just make the refrigerators you already make 10% heavier and boom you have an paper 10% increase in production. I think the most famous story on this topic, which as far as I know is mostly true, is the nail factory that produced only the tiniest most useless nails to meet unit quotas. When this was noticed due to a shortage of actual useful nails, the quota was changed to weight instead, so they immediately started producing only the biggest, most useless nails. Mission accomplished!
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Apr 29, 2024 06:37
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Lot of reports from a variety of news services about increased Russian ''tactical gains'' along the entire front the past few days. I am have trouble finding anything concrete on exactly where and what that means, ISW interactive map not telling much. Anyone have other sources reporting on this, and if breakthroughs are actually occurring or are the Ukrainians falling back in order?
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Apr 29, 2024 14:07
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Dick Ripple posted:Lot of reports from a variety of news services about increased Russian ''tactical gains'' along the entire front the past few days. I am have trouble finding anything concrete on exactly where and what that means, ISW interactive map not telling much. Anyone have other sources reporting on this, and if breakthroughs are actually occurring or are the Ukrainians falling back in order? On the Avdiivka direction in Ocheretyne Russians managed to exploit a Ukranian mistake in troop rotation and have broken through there. Nothing major but Ukraine has to fall back to better defensible positions. On the Bakhmut direction Chasiv Yar is being threatened. It's not a great situation.
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Apr 29, 2024 14:16
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https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/fronteline-analysis-a-concise-look This is a current assessment.
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Apr 29, 2024 14:18
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The thing about tactical gains is that they're almost invisible on a strategic map like from ISW. But tactical gains are still gains and they can add up. The coming few weeks/months we're gonna see Russia going all in to gain as much territory as possible before the ammo arrives at the front and Ukraine can stabilize things more.
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Apr 29, 2024 14:35
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Some numbers on how many Ukrainian men actually try to avoid conscription. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/223135-za-dva-roky-v-ukrayini-vidkryly-mayze-11-tysiach-sprav-shchodo-ukhyliantiv-ofis-henprokurora Hromadske posted:Almost 11 Thousand Cases Against Military Service Evaders Opened in Ukraine over Two Years - Prosecutor General's Office It's interesting how few, comparatively speaking, actually go to court, and that only 60 cases resulted in imprisonment.
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Apr 29, 2024 17:52
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Paladinus posted:Some numbers on how many Ukrainian men actually try to avoid conscription. I'm guessing getting sent out there is considered punishment enough for all but the most egregious.
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Apr 29, 2024 17:54
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mawarannahr posted:I'm guessing getting sent out there is considered punishment enough for all but the most egregious. There are no numbers on how many of them end up at the front lines and I don't think it's even impossible to gauge how many that would be. To be clear, those cases are opened when someone fails to report to their local conscription office in time, and that includes people who wouldn't be sent to fight anyway. So I'm sure that a non-insignificant number of cases were either due to just pure clerical errors or people not getting their summons at the right address/not being able to make it in time despite their best efforts in the chaos of internal migration. The 60 who went to prison, I would assume, actually tried to skip town when it was clear they would be sent to fight.
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Apr 29, 2024 18:04
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Is Ukraine eventually going to have to conscript every able bodied male 18+?
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Apr 29, 2024 18:19
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Charliegrs posted:Is Ukraine eventually going to have to conscript every able bodied male 18+? Literally every male You, me, all of us
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Apr 29, 2024 18:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Literally every male They said "able bodied" so goons don't need to bother
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Apr 29, 2024 18:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Literally every male Even my balls??????
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Apr 29, 2024 18:41
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Xiahou Dun posted:Even my balls?????? I know there's a whole book series on "what if spy novels but also Lovecraftian horrors", but you'd think unleashing the Deep Ones on the battle field would be a major war crime 
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Apr 29, 2024 18:54
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MikeC posted:https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/fronteline-analysis-a-concise-look Thank you, this is good stuff. Although a rather bleak assessment in that they do not think Ukraine will be able to stabilize the line until the fall. And the lack of fortifications being built is another one of those head scratchers. I can only assume it has something to do with the lack of manpower.
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Apr 29, 2024 19:36
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/timeso...w/109696911.cms U.S. buys 81 old Soviet era aircraft for "reasons". Some talk of being used as decoys or for parts. I'm leaning towards parts myself but I know nothing of the shelf life for avionics.
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Apr 29, 2024 19:56
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Dick Ripple posted:Thank you, this is good stuff. Although a rather bleak assessment in that they do not think Ukraine will be able to stabilize the line until the fall. And the lack of fortifications being built is another one of those head scratchers. I can only assume it has something to do with the lack of manpower. Noteworthy fortifications across large sectors of front are a major investment of resources. When your cities are getting bombed, you have to make choices like whether to build more shelters in cities or build new housing for people who have lost their homes or build bunkers for a fortified line that may or may not end up being useful. Without hard shelters extensive trenchworks are also useless. Ukraine has given up anti-personnel land mines as part of the Ottawa treaty, so they can't build the same kind of extensive minefield as Russians did either - and one has to wonder if they'd want to do so to that degree even if they still had them, as it's their land that needs to be cleaned afterwards. Antitank mines alone don't make a strong defensive construction, as infantry or ~*golf carts*~ can run across without triggering them.
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Apr 29, 2024 19:58
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Dirt5o8 posted:https://www.google.com/amp/s/timeso...w/109696911.cms Parts, yes, but mostly denying said parts to the Russians I'd wager.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:04
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Parts, yes, but mostly denying said parts to the Russians I'd wager. A lot of those models aren't really used by Russia any more.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:06
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OddObserver posted:A lot of those models aren't really used by Russia any more. I am confident that their newer planes share 50% of their parts with the stuff from the 70's and 80's.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:14
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Charliegrs posted:Is Ukraine eventually going to have to conscript every able bodied male 18+?
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Apr 29, 2024 22:54
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Dick Ripple posted:Thank you, this is good stuff. Although a rather bleak assessment in that they do not think Ukraine will be able to stabilize the line until the fall. And the lack of fortifications being built is another one of those head scratchers. I can only assume it has something to do with the lack of manpower. What goes unsaid in that report is that they have a ton of understrength brigades because they wrecked many of their new western equipped units in a mind-boggling and stubborn attempt to break Russian lines through attrition the entire summer of 2023. There were already eyebrows raised early on when we learned the lion's share of western equipment went to building new units with no combat experience, rather than rotating out veteran with combat experience to be equipped. The Ukrainians also decided to dilute their attacks across 3 major sectors instead of focusing on one and often called on its most experienced (and worn down) units to lead attacks in the Bakhmut and Vuldehar sectors. The result was that the AFU drained what was left of its old regular units that had borne the brunt of the fighting in the first year of the war while allowing newly raised units to waste precious men and equipment on fruitless attacks on Russia's best-defended sector while pissing away all their ammo. Much of what ails to AFU since Q4 2023 is self inflicted. Did the pause in US support hurt? Absolutely yes. Did the Ukrainians put themselves in such a vulnerable position for not a lot of good reasons (likely because they feared the loss of face if their offensive was called off)? Also an unqualified yes.
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Apr 30, 2024 04:18
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MikeC posted:What goes unsaid in that report is that they have a ton of understrength brigades because they wrecked many of their new western equipped units in a mind-boggling and stubborn attempt to break Russian lines through attrition the entire summer of 2023. There were already eyebrows raised early on when we learned the lion's share of western equipment went to building new units with no combat experience, rather than rotating out veteran with combat experience to be equipped. The Ukrainians also decided to dilute their attacks across 3 major sectors instead of focusing on one and often called on its most experienced (and worn down) units to lead attacks in the Bakhmut and Vuldehar sectors. The result was that the AFU drained what was left of its old regular units that had borne the brunt of the fighting in the first year of the war while allowing newly raised units to waste precious men and equipment on fruitless attacks on Russia's best-defended sector while pissing away all their ammo. Haven't US sources been on the record saying not only were they pushing the Ukrainians to attack, but to keep attacking, and to attack with more force? With quite a strong implication that if they didn't go on the offensive and actually take land back the US would start reducing supply of weapons because the war would be seen as a quagmire that could only be ended via negotiation? Ukrainian leaders were apparently the ones slowing down the attacks, and trying to make them less costly to reduce casualties. With hindsight yes the offensive should have been called off after the first couple of weeks when it was very clearly going nowhere. But with so much external, and domestic civilian, pressure to attack in force to reclaim territory its not surprising at all that they did it.
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Apr 30, 2024 15:36
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US wanted all-in at one spot, Ukraine wanted three axis of attack
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Apr 30, 2024 15:45
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OddObserver posted:A lot of those models aren't really used by Russia any more. A lot of other countries the US doesn't like are flying elderly Russian planes though
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Apr 30, 2024 15:52
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Dandywalken posted:US wanted all-in at one spot, Ukraine wanted three axis of attack Also we may or may not replace your losses.
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Apr 30, 2024 16:04
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Also the US was telling the Ukrainians they need to use smoke rounds while crossing large open areas during the counteroffensive but Ukrainian commanders rejected that because then they wouldn't be able to see what was going on when viewing the battleground with drones.
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Apr 30, 2024 16:15
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Charliegrs posted:Also the US was telling the Ukrainians they need to use smoke rounds while crossing large open areas during the counteroffensive but Ukrainian commanders rejected that because then they wouldn't be able to see what was going on when viewing the battleground with drones. I wonder if the modern era has conditioned us to expect immediate payoff/results for every input we make resulting in hyperfixation on things like real-time combat data at the expense of tactical and strategic success... Haven't battlefield commanders historically had to rely on training and planning an attack super carefully and then relying on their NCO corps to make the right choice once contact is made? Wasn't there a lot of painful waiting at the command center and only limited verbal or written feedback on how the fight is going?
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Apr 30, 2024 16:35
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Kraftwerk posted:I wonder if the modern era has conditioned us to expect immediate payoff/results for every input we make resulting in hyperfixation on things like real-time combat data at the expense of tactical and strategic success... Haven't battlefield commanders historically had to rely on training and planning an attack super carefully and then relying on their NCO corps to make the right choice once contact is made? Wasn't there a lot of painful waiting at the command center and only limited verbal or written feedback on how the fight is going? Historically fog of war was much more prevalent than what you see now with satellites/drones/better and more radios etc, but I believe one of the issues with Ukraine specifically is that their officer corp was trained in the soviet style where personal initiative was discouraged and higher level commanders were micromanaging things instead of the American style where the lower level officers are given objectives and the how of execution is up to them.
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Apr 30, 2024 17:13
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Wasn't one if the biggest problems being that ex soviet and the Ukranian armed forces don't really have NCOs like American and western armies?
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Apr 30, 2024 17:14
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mustard_tiger posted:Wasn't one if the biggest problems being that ex soviet and the Ukranian armed forces don't really have NCOs like American and western armies? Prior to the invasion Ukraine was trying to restructure its command structure along NATO lines and junior officer/NCO independence was credited for a lot of successes in 2022, but when they mobilized their reserves they had to bring back a lot of mothballed ex-Soviet officers--who were disproportionately used for the training pipeline, since Ukraine needed their best and brightest in the field (and also it's a lot easier to train people to shut up and follow orders than it is to train them to be effective flexible tacticians.) So as attrition has depleted Ukraine's low level commanders they haven't been able to replace them up to the same caliber, leading to the situation where they can't maintain cohesion without a higher up having eyeballs on them.
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Apr 30, 2024 17:34
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Blut posted:With hindsight yes the offensive should have been called off after the first couple of weeks when it was very clearly going nowhere. But with so much external, and domestic civilian, pressure to attack in force to reclaim territory its not surprising at all that they did it. I was already speculating a week in that the AFU would call it off because the conditions weren't right. This was right after the debacle where a dozen Bradleys and demining vehicles got destroyed by Russian attack helicopters and artillery / drones. It was obvious at that point the Surovkin line was indeednl formidable and well manned. As the attack continued at a snail’s pace, Ukrainian cheerleading promised a breakthrough that never happened based largely on the hopes that the AFU was operating on information not available to the public (ie the casualty ratios were very favorable or that Russian reserves were lacking and that the secondary or tertiary lines were largely undermanned. As I said, it is now clear that the attacks continued without any reasonable expectations of success and it largely drained the AFU's manpower and ammunition. There was a stretch during summer when the AFU held a clear artillery advantage in out going fires. Then as they ran out of shells in late summer, the while cluster munitions debate flared up as the everyone desperately tried to funnel shells to keep the AFU going hoping that Russian collapse was imminent. Now we know the truth of the matter. The Russians were never close to breaking thanks to the diluted nature of the AFU offensive and were shoveling their most expendable men in the front lines while pulling their artillery back to preserve them. The shoe is currently on the other foot now with exhausted and understrength Ukrainian units defending with no artillery support.
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Apr 30, 2024 18:21
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The part that gets me is how much men and material the Russians lost and yet they reconstituted their military and are double (triple?) the size they were at the start of the conflict while Ukraine is running out of troops and having a hard time finding new ones. At this rate Russia could take Kharkhiv if they work fast enough vs the aid. It's very possible that Russia could defeat Ukraine or at least reduce it by fully annexing and locking in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. I just don't see how Ukraine can reconstitute itself and basically have 10:1 kill ratios when western support is so fragile and only sufficient enough to sustain Ukraine when it's on the defensive. It almost feels like we're delaying the inevitable rather than fighting for victory. It's frustrating to watch when we could've nipped this conflict in the bud back in 2022-2023 if we just had the political will to do so. Putin is resting comfortably and China seems to be backing Russia to the hilt and gaining some sort of geopolitical upper hand against America in future struggles. These threats just aren't being taken seriously enough for my liking. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Apr 30, 2024 |
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Apr 30, 2024 19:38
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