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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

The point is not that it isn't possible to circumvent sanctions or embargos (I think it has been well established that smuggling works, you can't stop it even to prisons), it's that doing so is going to be inefficient/expensive compared to purchasing directly and good luck getting support from manufacturer when you encounter undocumented issues or need warranty replacements. In the end it throws a major spanner in the works, the more so when it comes to things that require technical support from manufacturer instead of something that you just take out of the box and start using.

Additionally it gives opportunity for CIA et al to run their own smuggle op where they deliver industrial goods that have been altered in interesting ways. It wouldn't be the first time.

As an example of sophisticated smuggling techniques, here's 100 kg of Finnish cheese caught from a minivan by Russian customs in 2017. Cheese exports to Russia were banned in 2014.




And another 150 kg of cheese, butter and meat products.



The bosses of those Russian customs officials lived like kings for months, I believe. Anyway, when you buy smuggled goods you are paying the smugglers a premium for something that is probably not up to standards.

Is Finnish cheese particularly good or is this a case of Russian smugglers going with what they can get their mits on? I ask because I'm curious what the Finnish contribution to the NATO conference steam table will be, because usually it's the Dutch and the French who bring the cheese.

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

uncleTomOfFinland posted:

Let's just say that the fact they are smuggling Oltermanni shows how dire the cheese situation in Russia is. (it's not good)

EDIT: Probably the most visible effect of the 2014 invasion was that for a while you could get really cheap cheese in Finnish supermarkets with Finnish ingredient labels slapped on top of the cyrillic ones.

So I've never heard of it before but Oltermanni is something like a processed cheese product version of Tilsit, I guess? Woof.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Your comment, please.

That seems like a lot of trench.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I'm reminding Moon Slayer of the changed expectations for sharing links.

Oh, I was just making an observation. It's a loving lot of trench.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
This whole leak story just keeps getting stupider and stupider. I'm a genuine loss for words.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

This guy is about to have a really, really bad time and he totally deserves it. Military justice does not look kindly on his sort.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1646622737580933121

The T-54/55 is a design from World War Two (it's a development of the abortive T-44 design which was a mid-war attempt at a T-34 replacement) that entered production in 1946 and Russia supposedly sold the last of their reserve stock off back in 2012.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Morrow posted:

Do the nukes even, like, work. Because one half of the start inspections is making sure that reported nuclear arsenals are actually extant.

Anyone who knows the answer isn't telling so the logical thing to do is assume they do.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I don't know an answer to this, but I would be very surprised if Russia has been keeping this shadow corps of tank ammo loaders for “what if a war goes so badly that we're rolling WW2 gear out”.

Yeah, anyone claiming this is absolutely huffing Putin's farts. T-54/55s are being pressed into frontline service because Russia is just that desperate for working vehicles. The End.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Гжегож Бженчищикевич

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
EDIT: Redacted

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

adebisi lives posted:

I don't like the guy either but can we not poo poo on people for having disabilities?

What the hell are you talking about?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Didn't see this mentioned in re: Putin's stupid parade, and it should be.

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1655945049526669316

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

Tracks are just wheels that you put over multiple wheels.

You are J. Walter Christie and I claim my five Euro.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OddObserver posted:

Remember the guy who leaked documents for discord cred? Well, looks like discipline may be as bad as compartmentlization in there:
https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1659162367823863809

Yeah, there's a reason that unit was stood down and stripped of its mission.

I imagine the unit commander's last meeting with his superior went something like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onBZBAHB_ws

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Djarum posted:

The US and UK get to celebrate a big victory in Ukraine and the defeat of the big bad Russians which I know in the mind of a lot of Americans still are the boogyman.

Can't imagine why a country that invades and brutalizes its neighbors is considered a boogeyman.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Libluini posted:

very funny, I guess the next step is to ask Russian citizens to use their magic powers to conjure missing materials out of thin air, too

Potassium nitrate for gunpowder can be produced from human waste, so get making GBS threads tovarisch!

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

They're all under your bed and Vladimir Putin told me he's going to set them off tonight.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

fatherboxx posted:

Yeah, he is very weird, has a pet toad and a map of divided Russia in the cabinet and leans heavily into his meme status of a man who is behind every fire or crash in Russia and occupied territories. Uncommon to have an intelligence guy in a such public position, but Ukraine has been writing the new playbook for doing the media game, so maybe it is worth it. Its gonna be some time before it gets clear if his command over HUR got tangible results or if it is mostly smoke.

Try as I might I cannot picture, say, George Smiley posting a photo of his lighter on Twitter with a bunch of :elon: emojis underneath it.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
She has another website too.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Just for the record, I and many fellow Americans fully endorse throwing Lindsey Graham into Lubyanka. So your tit-for-tat kinda backfired here, Vladi.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Willo567 posted:

So should we expect drone attacks in Moscow to be a regular occurrence now, or only a once in a while scenario?

Why do you continually ask questions ITT that none of us can actually answer with any sort of accuracy?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Meanwhile in Russia...

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1664959992225493001

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OAquinas posted:

I think the larger issue is that this could cause a meltdown since the reactor needs to be actively cooled. Ukraine doesn't want a meltdown and I'm sure they'd prefer to keep their hydro dam in place, so...it's almost certainly russia. Or maybe just stress-induced failure. Either way...

The reactor is supposedly in cold shutdown, which IIRC means there's far less danger of a meltdown related to interruption of coolant.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

MikeC posted:

Yep, all signs before and current show that "success" is going to look much like the late summer offensive of 2022 in Kherson. Russians are prepared and willing to fight and the Ukrainians don't appear have clear edge and it is probably going to be a slog with a decent chance they will end up with not a ton to show for it. Goons should temper their expectations now. I know some folks were hoping for Kharkiv round 2 but that is very unlikely to happen.

Your evidence, please.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Russia might be worried. They're deploying Ted Rall cartoons to talk about Ukrainian Nazis.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Ynglaur posted:

Yeah, I was posting from the perspective of Allied close air support the day of. Probably too narrow a perspective.

Very very very too narrow a perspective. You're possibly correct if you're talking about actual close air support strikes in the vicinity of the actual beachheads on June 6th, but air power as a whole had a massive and fundamental impact on the success of the landings (which notably included three divisions that arrived in France entirely by air).

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Jun 13, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

fatherboxx posted:

Weird, probably Kadyrov's idea of a joke post since a lot of Russian officials insist that Delimkhanov is alive

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668911534184038403?t=tAa5BjCFhP72SlsP8i5F9Q&s=19

him name is Adam Delimkhanov

I lost my Delimkhanov

ps. i'll find my Delimkhanov
who took my Delimkhanov

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Willo567 posted:

So hoe mang months will it likely be before we know how well the counteroffensive is going?

How the gently caress would anyone in this thread know that?

The answer is "we don't know" just like the last time you and your soon-to-be-nuked balls asked this sort of question not even three weeks ago.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Jun 22, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Willo567 posted:

Doesn't Putin have their equivalent of the brief case and Prigozhin can't use them?

No, Prigozhin has the briefcase and he's launching twenty ICBMs directly at your balls.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Flavahbeast posted:

Crazy theory: the "coup" is manufactured, the special military operation is actually near a breaking point and the narrative of withdrawing from most of Ukraine due to a crisis at home is more palatable than the narrative of being defeated outright by the Ukrainians

I mean it's an interesting idea, but what about the Russian government's performance over the past few years suggests they could pull off such a thing?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Looks like we're at the Kornilov Phase of Russia loving up a war.

EDIT: I mean in terms of deranged Russian generals Prigozhin is much closer to that psycho who tried to start a new Mongol empire but I can't think of a way to finish this pedantic correction.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Jun 24, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Jesus Christ what a clusterfuck.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Comstar posted:

Are you channeling the ghost of field Marshal Haig. Can you ask him his opinion on stealth aircraft.

Haig wasn't that stupid. He'd have loving loved precision munitions because one of his earliest problems was a shortage of artillery shells.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nix Panicus posted:

You know an artillery shell isnt the same thing as a bullet, right? You don't need to hit the target dead center. Close enough is good enough, and getting close enough with 100 shells is going to blow the target up just as well, with the added bonus of also saturating the entire area.

Its one shell Michael, how much could it cost? Ten dollars?

Great now multiply that over a million shells a year

This is one of the most terminally wrong things I've ever read.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Libluini posted:

That conflict ended with South Vietnam eventually being annexed by North Vietnam, so I guess the answer is: "Ukraine should annex Russia and restore the Kievan Rus", which is probably not what you were going for

You say this like it might not be a good outcome.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nervous posted:

I'm pre-conditioned by propaganda and Hollywood to assume Russians are evil and/or the enemy.

Dude, seriously?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

MikeC posted:

I subscribe to IR Realism since imo, it has the best explanatory power of how nations behave.

I'm so sorry.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

whydirt posted:

Isn’t Newsweek a crank brand coasting on its old print reputation these days?

Yes, it is.

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

BillsPhoenix posted:

With unconfirmable rumors that the US has sent a team to start negotiating peace with Russia, is there a possibility that the conflict, battles, and horrific loss of life end up largely irrelevant?

From a pure military standpoint, Russia is showing weakness.

But outside that, Russia seems to have strengthened ties with India and Russia, and global trade, supply chains and economies are messy.

It'd be wild if non military issues end up with much of Ukraine being given to Russia, despite their losses. I'm assuming Ukraine can't fight hardly at all without western aid, which is a flawed assumption.

What in the hell are you talking about?

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