War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Lol at the posting sanctions section, that got a good chuckle out of me

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:30

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 07:41

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

People wanted a chiller thread, and it's the 1st of April, and I've evidently made a decision to post it. That said, between this post being the immediate response to it and that post being the last on its page, the joke will definitely land closer to the heart of your post than to its desired effect.

I appreciated the joke and fell for it lol

# ¿ Apr 2, 2023 03:23

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

We got a lot closer to Clancychat than was admitted or reported at the time. Remember that British surveillance plane that had a missile fired near it?

Yeah it wasn't an accident. It was intentional. The pilot misinterpreted what ground radar operators told him and he thought he had permission to fire. The missile was locked on and targeted correctly and the only thing that averted likely nuclear escalation is that the missile malfunctioned and failed to fire properly.

Phew.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1646298946552352768?s=20

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 19:23

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Deliberately targeting and downing a NATO plane with 30 NATO troops on it seems like a great on-ramp to escalation over a single pilot fighter where the pilot can eject.

Telsa Cola posted:

I would dearly love to hear your explanation of reasoning for the bolded.

It says so in the news article cited in the tweet that the missile malfunctioned and failed to fire properly when launched but that the targeting was accurate

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 20:01

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

The Soviets shot down a civilian 747 with a sitting US Senator on it at the height of the 1980s cold war nuclear tension and that didn't cause WW3.

That airliner was in soviet airspace over a restricted flight zone before it was shot down, the British plane was in international waters. Quite different

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 20:09

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

And so what, how is that connected to nuclear war in your mind? I read that whole article, and it doesn't come within the earshot of Clancychat masturbation that your post did pull off.

Deliberately shooting down a crewed NATO military craft would not go from shootdown directly to nukes. There would be escalatory steps in between, but those escalatory steps would not be possible without the plane being shot down to begin with. 30 military deaths in a deliberately targeted action in international waters by a hostile nation would absolutely demand a response of some kind and it's at THAT point that the path to nuclear escalation begins. None of it would be possible without that kind of antagonistic aggression in the first place. Would cooler heads prevail? Probably. I'd like to hope so. My formal training and education in this area tells me that historically, cooler heads have prevailed, but that same training and education also highlights how precarious that knife-edge balance is whenever it happens (eg, Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer 87, and the like). But without that shootdown there would be nothing for cooler heads to prevail over. It would represent a fundamentally different change in hostilities. This incident should be looked at in the same way as we look at Able Archer 87 and Stanislav Petrov: "Holy poo poo that was close, look how narrowly we avoided a hot war"

The difference between this and when Turkey shot down a Russian jet is that there was enough plausible deniability for everyone involved to get off without further escalation and, unfortunately, that the incident was in connection to the Syrian war which the West just does not care as much about as they do a hot war in Europe. The jet was in Turkish territory, it was a single pilot craft where the pilot could eject and no loss of life, and an attack by Turkey/NATO on Russia wouldn't trigger article 5 so it's a fundamentally different set of conditions and circumstances vs downing a NATO plane in international waters in a deliberately hostile action and only being saved by a missile misfire. A further example of how the circumstances are different would be in examining the battle between the US forces and Wagner in which upwards of 400 Wagnerites were casualties in a single engagement that was cleared with the Russian command prior to the start of fighting. It's all about the plausible deniability; in realpolitik the US engaged the Russian military in a kinetic action and it resulted in multiple hundreds of Russian military casualties (given the true relationship of Wagner vis a vis the RUAF), with no further escalation. It's just a fundamentally different situation and circumstance, and the consequences would be just as fundamentally different.

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 20:50 on Apr 13, 2023

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 20:42

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

That's how you wrote your post, though. Do you think like a dozen posters are just randomly yelling at you?

That's fair, and a valid point. I could have structured my post better. I just forget not everyone is in my own head and isn't privy to my thinking so I forget to inform people about the logical progression in my thoughts and just jump from start to finish and wonder why nobody else is understanding what I write. My mistake

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 20:57

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/13/us/documents-leak-pentagon/3c61ae8a-ebf5-5bd4-b805-43c9c701df5d

We'll see I guess, but if they do the 1 count per page thing, then it's going to be a while.

It's my feeling he is going to be made an example of. US foreign policy has defintely shifted towards Russia lately with this war (in the near term), and with a longer view of the US vs China over Taiwan looming in the years to come, if I were the US government I would find a lot of benefits in making an example of military allied intelligence leaks re: Ukraine if I'm also looking at the future and considering what the US may need in Taiwan should China decide to act

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 22:45

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Djarum posted:

What is just as concerning is this idiot had the access and ability to let poo poo walk out for the lulz on Discord. Makes to wonder how many others are doing the same thing elsewhere and giving that to others?

This is one of my worries too. This guy was dumb enough to leak to an audience that would re-broadcast it. Who, if anyone, if even able to, is keeping an eye on the ones smart enough not to leak it in a white nationalist discord?

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 22:58

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

T-55s and T-62s are just mobile coffins in this war, end of story.

Can Russia use them like artillery, lobbing shells from behind the line? If you can call in accurate fire with 80 year-old ammunition and guns, and the enemy is all bunched up and immobile like a bunch of idiots, maybe it could be effective. Outside of Iran-Iraq War human wave circumstances, no.

Can you dig them in and have them act like bunkers? You'd need to know exactly where the enemy was coming and meanwhile not have to worry about any sort of precision munitions, including drones with RPG rounds, maybe it could hit something.

T-62s were in service with reserve units even before Ukraine, so they did have loaders in the modern army. The problem is that being a loader in a T-62 is rough. The main ammo stowage is in the front chassis, next to the driver and inside the frontal fuel tank. The other stowage bin is in the rear of the chassis. There are "ready racks" inside the turret, which are just shelves that you can have rounds sitting in for more convenient loading. There is no turret basket, only a rotating floor, which means that the loader can have great difficulty pulling shells out of the main stowage if the turret rotates too far right or left and there are no rounds in the ready racks. The rounds themselves are single-piece and very long and heavy, so they are difficult to move around inside the crew compartment.

T-55s have slightly different ammo storage and much less powerful guns. The rounds are roughly as big as the 62's if I remember right, if a bit smaller.

I could go on all day about how abhorrent the idea of these vehicles serving on the frontline as tanks is (if you're Russia, at least).

Please do, I absolutely love tankchat. This was a great post

# ¿ Apr 15, 2023 05:02

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

e: nvm, just saw fatherboxx's post

# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 08:18

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Fuschia tude posted:

Rivers wind all over the place, sometimes turning 180º or even 360º in a short distance, so east/west terminology can be ambiguous. The one thing rivers don't do is flow backwards.

(Flooding and other rare/localized events don't count. )

I believe you will find that the Chicago River disagrees with you there. They civil engineered it into flowing backwards in 1900

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 00:15

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

someone's gonna be real mad if they ever start reading contemporary informal russian and seeing how many english loanwords are in use for things that could reasonably use a word of russian origin

dehumanize yourself and face to фейки and смайлики

gonna go down to Бургер Кинг and get myself a juicy биг кинг :v:

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 19:19

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

A flash occurred to me that if cinci zoo sniper was still here this extremely fun and interesting derail into loanwords would not have been allowed to continue and everyone involved with joke loan words would eat a sixer

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 22:47

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

The US forces in the area cleared the action against Wagner by having James Mattis call the Russian commander and basically go "those guys are coming for us, are they yours?" Russia denied it, Mattis asked again and specifically said it was going to engage, Russia denied it again, Mattis shrugged and casually proceeded to annihilate most of a Wagner battalion. The air power the US brought to bear included AC-130 gunships, F-22 Raptor and F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned combat aerial vehicles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, and B-52s bombers.

Wagner didn't have any aircraft because their promised air support was uniformed Russian Air Force and that would be Bad.

# ¿ May 6, 2023 00:01

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Sebastian Flyte posted:

As a Dane I need to point out that in 1949 when Nato was founded we had huge and impressive amounts of Atlantic coastline. A whole lot more than most. But then some decades later Greenland wanted autonomy...

bigly coasts, the coldest and most frozen

# ¿ May 10, 2023 22:57

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

A BRICS country supplying another BRICS country with assistance is not really a surprising thing though, the only thing surprising to me about this is that it didn't happen sooner

# ¿ May 11, 2023 18:31

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Quick q for the IK/mods lurking around: is cinci's weird rule about not being allowed to post the text of paywalled articles still in effect? I don't wanna eat a sixer for a Guardian article about life in occupied Mariupol a year on from Russian occupation just because it wants you to subscribe

# ¿ May 18, 2023 18:25

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

fatherboxx posted:

I am not against it but I think it is at forum mods discretion since it is copyrightable material

Thanks, I'll hold off til a mod weighs in because I wanted to get into a deeper discussion of the topic beyond what would fit in for the GBS thread

Lum_ posted:

Guardian isn't paywalled though, you can just click through the subscribe nag and read the article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation

Strange, it won't let me read anything after I hit 11 free articles read unless I VPN into another location

# ¿ May 18, 2023 18:33

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

AlternateNu posted:

Cross posting from the GIP thread. But, I feel like arresting your own hypersonic weapons scientists for "treason" is a quintessentially Russia act.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-three-scientists-face-very-serious-accusations-treason-case-2023-05-17/

It was soviet de facto policy to force prominent engineers/scientists/etc to work on state projects (nuke programs were one) by arresting them and then sending them to a closed city to do the work

# ¿ May 19, 2023 00:39

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Ukraine's getting F-16s
_{timeline for delivery unclear but not for this counteroffensive}

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/us-allies-plan-provide-ukrainian-pilots-f-16-fighter-jets-official-say-rcna85270

quote:

HIROSHIMA, Japan � America and its allies plan to provide F-16s to Ukraine � although the fighter jets may not necessarily come directly from the United States � as part of a long-term effort to strengthen the country's security, a senior Biden administration official said Friday.

The timing for when Ukraine will receive the fighter jets � and which countries will provide them � remains unclear, but the official said the planes would not be used for Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive against Russia. In the coming months, the U.S. and its allies �will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them,� the official said. The news comes as President Joe Biden on Friday informed leaders of leading industrialized nations that the U.S. will support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

�Discussions about improving the Ukrainian air force reflect our long-term commitment to Ukraine�s self-defense," the senior administration official said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on the U.S. to provide F-16s, but Biden had so far refused the requests. In February, Biden said in an interview with ABC News that U.S. military advice showed that Ukraine did not need F-16s at the time.

�I�m ruling it out for now,� he had said about sending F-16s to Ukraine.

Officials from France and Poland had previously expressed openness to providing Ukraine with the advanced fighter jets. But any transfer of the American-made planes requires permission from the U.S. government.

News of the decision to provide Ukraine with F-16s comes as Biden attends a Group of Seven summit in Japan.

The U.S. and its allies' joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets could start in the coming weeks, the official said. The training �will take place outside Ukraine at sites in Europe and will require months to complete," the official continued.

Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy official, previously told Congress that training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s could take �about 18 months.� Other U.S. defense officials have said the training could be shortened to only six to nine months based on pilots' previous training and knowledge of fighter aircraft.

In his appearance before the House Armed Services Committee, Kahl said that it could cost up to $11 billion to revitalize Ukraine's military with F-16 jets. G-7 leaders have not announced who would pay to provide Ukraine with the planes.

In March, NBC News reported that two Ukrainian pilots were in the U.S. undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16s. Washington had also approved bringing up to 10 more Ukrainian pilots to the U.S. for further assessment.

# ¿ May 19, 2023 18:56

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

WarpedLichen posted:

It would be interesting to read an after action report on Bakhmut someday, just to get a feel of whether or not staying in was worth it. It seems insane that Ukraine stayed that long while they had only one road for logistics and it was actively being contested.

Til you see how many Russians it took out of the fight and for how long

# ¿ May 21, 2023 17:40

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Russia can't deal with 200 guys in a few humvees taking over border villages in a day-plus long raid. I'm pretty sure this counteroffensive is going to go well for Ukraine.

# ¿ May 23, 2023 18:06

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

tatankatonk posted:

Genuine question for those in the thread who are currently against a ceasefire or peace while Russia has illegally occupied/annexed Ukrainian territory - what do you think Ukraine should do if the counteroffensive fails to achieve a significant result? Is there any price in casualties and infrastructure that you would consider too steep for Ukraine to pay?

No, because Ukraine decides when Ukraine stops fighting and not any of us. Ukraine's current stated goals are the restoration of its territory before any negotiations can occur, and they haven't wavered from that. Unless you are Ukrainian, whatever opinions you might have about price in casualties or infrastructure being worth it or not for the continued survival of the Ukrainian people and state is irrelevant.

On an unrelated note, have some truly awful Harry Potter fanfiction written by Igor Girkin:

https://vk.com/@iistrelkov-progulki-po-hogvartsu-s-ritoi-skiter

# ¿ May 24, 2023 06:23

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Nobody that can send 10,000 drones in a mass swarm at you is going to do that over using conventional air power and long range precision munitions. A massive drone swarm like that would be very ineffective and impossible to control in any meaningful capacity and a million dollars in drones wouldn't buy you the same equivalent destructive power as two Tomahawk cruise missiles would if they are remotely similar to the dinner-roll dimensions in the post. The scenario described in that post is one step removed from literal Skynet style autonomous target seeking miniaturized hunter-killer drones and kind of fantastical

The anti-drone answer is, for the foreseeable future until laser weaponry is progressed enough to take over an anti-drone capability (similar to how they are used already for anti-ship missile defense in task forces) are going to be variations of cheap laser guided rocket munitions like have already been sent to Ukraine:

https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2023/04/us-sending-experimental-anti-drone-weapons-ukraine/384801/

# ¿ Sep 7, 2023 23:50

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

daslog posted:

Is there so little worthy of discussion going on right now in the Ukraine? Been away for a bit and I feel like I just read 5 pages of a General Dynamics wish list.

Quite a bit is going on actually! Crossposting my earlier post for some discussion topics:

----------------------------------------

Insider posted:

Russia's infamous 'dragon's teeth' defenses are a joke and were easily overcome, says Ukrainian ex-commander

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-dragons-teeth-defenses-a-joke-says-ex-ukraine-commander-2023-9?utm_source=reddit.com

quote:

"To begin with the amusing, it includes the so-called dragon's teeth. I think everyone has already seen photos or videos [of those]. These are white concrete pyramids that, in the Russian imagination, were supposed to stop our tanks, somehow."

"Why these pyramids were built, to be honest, is a mystery to me," Dykyi said. "The only rational explanation is that someone simply gobbled up the budget. Because there is absolutely no use from them as they don't stop tanks."

---------------------------------------------

Ukrainska Pravda posted:

US intelligence believes Ukraine can break through Russia's remaining defense lines by end of year

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/7/7418820/

quote:

The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency believes that the recent successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suggest a "realistic possibility" of a breakthrough in the rest of the Russian defence lines by the end of the year, although it would be extremely difficult.

Source: Trent Maul, Director of Analysis at Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in a rare interview with The Economist

After three months of slow progress, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is gaining momentum. "Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic. Their breakthrough on that second defensive belt…is actually pretty considerable," Trent Maul says.

----------------------------------------------

Ukrainska Pravda posted:

Car containing two FSB officers who tortured Ukrainians is blown up in Oleshky

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/7/7418878/

quote:

Details: One of the FSB employees was killed instantly by the explosion, and the other is in intensive care in a serious condition. Three Russian soldiers who were escorting the car were injured.

According to information available to Ukrainska Pravda, the Security Service of Ukraine was involved in the explosion. The FSB officers targeted "worked" in occupied Skadovsk. They used to visit Oleshky to carry out filtration activities and torture Ukrainian citizens.

--------------------------------------------------

Jens Stoltenberg posted:

"The reality is that Ukrainians are exceeding expectations again and again"

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699824195436151300?s=20

quote:

You cannot, sitting in Brussels, tell Ukrainians how to fight. They risk their lives, and we need to support and praise them for their bravery.

----------------------------------------------------

ISW posted:

Ukrainian forces advance as Russian commentators complain of low supplies

https://kyivindependent.com/isw-ukrainian-forces-advance-as-russian-commentators-complain-of-low-supplies/

quote:

Ukrainian troops continue to advance in parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Sept. 6 report.

At the same time, Russian war commentators claim that Russian brigades in Ukraine lack sufficient supplies, particularly artillery munitions.

According to the ISW, Russian commentators who follow the war closely have claimed that troops are relying on "limited stockpiles" of artillery, thus "performing poorly along the front in Ukraine."

Complaints that the Russian military has inadequately equipped front-line soldiers have become common among certain Russian sources, causing tension with the Kremlin.

Artillery shortages remain an ongoing problem for Russian forces. The New York Times reported on Sept. 4 that Russia hopes to secure a deal with North Korea for additional artillery shells during Kim Jong-Un's planned visit to Vladivostok on Sept. 10-13.

---------------------------------------------------

Wall Street Journal posted:

In Crimea, pro-Ukraine feelings prompt a Russian crackdown

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos9

quote:

Every few days, Russian occupation authorities on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula parade newly caught “traitors” in front of the cameras.

For some, the crime consisted of playing Ukrainian songs in public, running a pro-Ukrainian social-media account or tying yellow cloth strips, a sign of resistance to Russian rule, to fences and trees. Other detainees include shopkeepers and gas-station attendants who had refused service to Russian soldiers. Still others stand accused of more-serious acts of resistance: blowing up railroad tracks or gathering intelligence for Ukrainian missile and drone strikes.

While this crackdown is meant to cow pro-Ukraine residents of Crimea into submission, it also highlights a worrying fact for Russian occupation authorities: Despite their claims, believed by many outside Russia, that the people of Crimea solidly stand with Moscow, many Crimeans openly yearn for a return to Ukrainian rule.

---------------------------------------------

Jens Stoltenberg posted:

Russian army now second strongest in Ukraine

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3758290-russian-army-now-second-strongest-in-ukraine-stoltenberg.html

quote:

"Ukrainian forces are gaining ground, breaking through Russian fortifications and liberating their land, proving that the Russian army, which used to be the second strongest in the world, has now become the second strongest in Ukraine."

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this in Brussels at the joint meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and the Subcommittee on Security and Defense (SEDE), according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

----------------------------------------------------

The counteroffensive progresses apace

# ¿ Sep 8, 2023 00:25

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

i say swears online posted:

there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for

In the original language it is more clear that he is being sarcastic there. That is a direct reference to the quality of the dragon teeth and how they were used improperly (not even anchored into the ground!!! AND THEY WERE HOLLOW!!) to the point where it became a "what are these even here for and why bother?" thing

# ¿ Sep 8, 2023 00:50

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Mr SuperAwesome posted:

The New York Times is a reputable newspaper, I�m sure they will have checked their facts and to claim that the NYT is pushing propaganda is a bit silly. Is the NYT supposed to be pro-Russian now? I don�t think so.

Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesn�t make a big difference.

Are you for real saying that there's not a big difference between a GPS guided tail-fin Caesar shell that can hit within 7 feet of the target and a normal 155mm HE dumbfire shell that can hit the same target with an 867 foot margin of error

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Sep 15, 2023

# ¿ Sep 15, 2023 03:26

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

EasilyConfused posted:

I'm not sure what islands you're thinking of, but it sure wasn't the Aleutians. The US considered the islands highly important and drove the Japanese out. That campaign is most famous for when they failed to realize the Japanese had withdrawn from Kiska before the US landing and subsequently lost hundreds of troops to an enemy that wasn't even there.

The Battle of Attu was a pretty notable battle as well. That's what finally ended the occupation of the Aleutians. You're correct that the US took that very seriously, mostly because of the potential for the Japanese to use those islands as strategic bomber bases

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Attu

# ¿ Sep 15, 2023 22:50

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

BillsPhoenix posted:

The cold war is a literal, war.

If the Ukraine conflict is a continuation or restarting of the cold war, then the US and Russia are at war.

If we're short of that, what level of US involvement would mean the US and Russia are at war?

Americans and Russians shooting at each other without bothering with plausible deniability.

# ¿ Sep 16, 2023 00:32

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 07:41

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Popete posted:

0 American service members have died in this war, kinda tough to have a war when one side isn't even there.

# ¿ Sep 16, 2023 04:42

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War