(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Small White Dragon posted:So going back to a topic from the previous thread: Swede here: it has zero effect. All countries involved have a lot of cooperation already and there are specific Nordic frameworks for mutual defense (such as Nordefco) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Defence_Cooperation Also Sweden is as close to a Nato member as you can be without being an official member.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:28
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 09:46 |
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Every helicopter and BTR redirected to Belgorod today is one that is not ready to react to a ukraine counterattack. They could keep making lots of jabs like this which neither us nor Russia knows if they are feints or not. Suddenly, blam, one of many flashpoints is backed by nine battalions.
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May 22, 2023 21:43
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Paladinus posted:According to Oryx, confirmed military equipment losses are roughly equal on both sides in the past week Equal losses for a defender behind well prepared lines in a peer-to-peer conflict is.... not good.
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Jun 13, 2023 15:07
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Huggybear posted:Yes, I accept those realities. They are harsh. The possibility of the West to prove fickle if gains are not maintained seems unfounded, so I would appreciate elaboration on that. There are political forces in pretty much every Western country that want to either decrease or remove aid to Ukraine, both civilian and military aid. There are countries in both EU and Nato who are, well, not clearly opposed to Russia’s invasion, or at least want use it for their own gain (Hungary and Turkey most notably). If things in Ukraine went into something like a one or two year stalemate, you’d hear a lot more calls for less support to Ukraine. For context, our nationalist populist party here in Sweden, with 20% support in voters, was pretty much pro-putin at the start of 2022 and only shut up about it when it got obvious how massive popular support for Ukraine was when Russia got stuck. They’d be very quick to return to their previous position when/if people got pessimistic of any fruitful outcome of the war. And there are similar parties in many, maybe most, countries in Europe. It’s not a completely empty threat to Ukraine. And as mentioned above there are several high ranking GOP people openly calling for a decrease in US support for Ukraine as well. That’s an even bigger threat than if one or a few European countries were to withdraw support. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jun 17, 2023 |
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Jun 17, 2023 04:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:You say this like it might not be a good outcome. Problem is that Sweden doesn't have a competent prince to send to rule them.
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Jun 30, 2023 09:43
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It’s just the typical faults of academics who fall in love with a simplified, elegant model and then ignores when reality is messier and more complex. See: pretty much every economist model based on every single person and entity being rational, beep-boop robot actors (with ”rational” meaning acting acording to what the economist deems rational).
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Jul 3, 2023 09:02
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Regarding cluster bombs: There has been several posters trying to imply, or openly say, that the only reasons for opposing the use of cluster munitions by Ukraine is that you're: a) a pearl-clutching pacifist, b) a moron, or c) a proud z-wearing Putinist (or a combination of the options above) Meanwhile, in the real world, the act of sending cluster munitions is being critizised by pretty much every relevant NGO, which could be expected. But also by most governments supporting Ukraine's war effort, including countries like Spain, Germany and the UK. A UK, mind you, that was ready to send MBTs to Ukraine when the US still said they were off limits. A UK that sent Storm Shadows when the US said that longer range missiles were off limits. Hardly the dove faction of the coalition supplying Ukraine with weapons. With that said, there is clearly room to support sending cluster munitions to Ukraine. Obviously, the national leadership of the US and Ukraine both deemed it necessary. But that position is, internationally, in the minority. There are a lot more actors that are opposed to this act. And not just internet posters, but national governments, which I hope have a little bit more insight in the matter than D&D. So I find the very aggressive posts the last couple of pages that have been browbeating other posters that are critical to the cluster munition packages to be in very poor form, as they try to imply that it is an unfathomable position, when it is actually the more common one.
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Jul 9, 2023 18:48
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Rugz posted:You're missing a lot of nuance, particularly things like the fact that countries that are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions are pretty much required to oppose the move, regardless of their actual feelings on it. What has the UK, Spain or Germany actually done, threatened to do, or mused over doing apart from saying 'Yeah we still think those things are bad'? The idea that a country opposing something is somehow noteworthy when they are effectively contractually obligated to oppose it isn't exactly a zinger. I don't agree, they could have been far less silent in their opposition if they didn't actually think it was important to make a point. And of course they have not threatened to do anything, that'd be insane. Threaten the US with what? Stern words are the only realistic option if they are opposed, and they've used stern words. If they thought it was ace they'd shuffle their feet. If the US wants to send cluster munitions, there's nothing anyone can do about it. Neither this thread or the UK (or any other) government. That doesn't make it an impossible position to have, to look at the facts and believe that the negatives outweigh the positives. My point is that that's a position that is actually the norm, rather than an insane outlier. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 19:06
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Moon Slayer posted:These are some fair points and I'm probably guilty of the top one, but you have to admit a lot of people seem to be coming at this from a "Ukraine will use these weapons in the same way the Russians have" i.e. indiscriminate use with no regard for noncombatants and for terror stance. Honestly I think a lot of the opposition from ukraine’s allies are due to this normalizing the use of cluster munitions in general, not just the long term effect it will have on Ukraine specifically. E: that is, there are things that would be tactically advantageous for Ukraine on the short term that are negative on the long term, especially outside the scope of just the war in Ukraine. Which I think most people agree with as general principle, even if we disagree on where that line is. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 19:36
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Zwabu posted:Is there a good article, site, video or podcast that runs down the various countries that are hovering around the threshold of EU and NATO memberships, the various issues in favor or against membership and the countries that throw a wrench in their membership campaigns and why? It's a pretty interesting topic that comes up repeatedly here and is directly relevant to this war. On wikipedia you can find the basics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_enlargement_of_the_European_Union
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Jul 9, 2023 21:35
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Ynglaur posted:Seems like a reasonable compromise. Erdogan gets to look big and tough, but (still) doesn't get F-35s. I'm happy for Sweden, and hope that Swedish goons itt (are there any?) are happy too. Nah, our PM promised Erdogan a ”special security cooperation”, which sounds like we’ll help him hunt Kurds and oppositional party members. An embarassing shitshow of smooching an autocratic rear end in a top hat until it’s shining. It also seems we promised to work inside EU to help Turkey’s application, which is funny. Like yes, I am sure everyone opposed to Turkey joining will change their tune now that Erdogan has mighty Sweden as their partner in crime. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jul 10, 2023 |
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Jul 10, 2023 22:33
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EasilyConfused posted:Pretty sure somebody called an F-16s for Swedish accession deal when this got started. Sweden will also work on lifting the ban on selling weapons to Turkey, so yeah, even if he doesn’t end up with F-16’s, Erdogan can waste the rapidly crumbling Turkish economy on buying Swedish weapons for killing Kurds.
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Jul 10, 2023 22:40
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spankmeister posted:This discussion isn't even really about cluster munitions. Ok this is going in circles but this is an insane strawman, nobody said that Russia using cluster munitions was a-ok. Indeed, there was a huge outcry about it at the start of the war, just as there was a lot of outcry about Russia using thermobaric missiles. It was definitely an issue, don't try to gaslight this as a "you only say it's bad because the US does it" topic. I'll happily leave the cluster bomb discussion, but this is such a bad strawman.
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Jul 11, 2023 10:49
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funk_mata posted:Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? No there will be no US Navy in the Black Sea. There are a thousand options that are more likely. That would be a ww3 scenario.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:41
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funk_mata posted:Fair enough. I wasn't aware U.S. Navy presence (in that capacity) in the Black Sea would be a trigger. Thanks! The Black Sea is such a sensitive place that RUSSIA has not been able to send more of their ships there since the war begun, and the international rules governing the issue are so clear that they haven’t even tried to push it.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:47
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Paladinus posted:True. Both sides indicate it's in progress. It may or may not be going well, but it's definitely still going. Also Ukraine's leadership has repeatedly pointed out that it has been harder than expected and that the initial plan didn't work out as they hoped. I'm thinking that one of the big "what ifs" of this war that scholars will debate in the future is whether it paid off to postpone the spring offensive. As someone on the outside who has no real info on what the decisions were based on, it SEEMS that one of the reasons for the delayed offensive was to raise more mobile brigades, especially to equip them with the Western tanks that took a lot of time to actually get and train crews for. This gave Russia extra time to prepare and dig in, preparations that have proven to make the immediate use of said tanks moot as they have been barely deployed, almost two months into the offensive. So if the offensive would be fought with attritional artillery and light infantry skirmishes, would it have been better to start it in April when the Russian lines were not quite as daunting? Would two months less of Russian fortifications matter? Or was the Ukrainian infantry forces not ready anyways for a Spring offensive? I have no idea, and I don't think anyone has all the data to give a honest answer, but maybe it'll be possible to puzzle it out after the war.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:21
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Also breaking through a line at any point could force the opponent to pull back troops along a lot of that line to defenses further back, as they'd be risking getting outflanked otherwise. Even if the breakthrough is not at an immediately important spot, any breakthrough can force the rest of the line to buckle. IIRC we saw this at least several times in the Kherson offensive.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:24
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Kraftwerk posted:
Counterpoint: the Russian army are currently defending like the Soviet army, but lack the resources and skills of the Soviet army. We'll see which imperfect approach is the most imperfect soon enough.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:41
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Eric Cantonese posted:
Not just the US but basically everyone for the first week or so IIRC. Maybe more. And going by memory, it was mostly removed as a potential scenario after the columns towards Kiev retreated. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 27, 2023 20:17
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MadDogMike posted:Kinda interesting to compare that example to what we're seeing with Russia in this conflict. The US military and MIC obviously have corruption issues, but it does seem like we generally get at least SOMETHING for the money instead of Russia effectively winding up with an empty box every time because somebody sold the actual item off. I wonder what specifically makes the difference there. Fewer levels of it? US corruption seems to focus pretty hard at the high political end of the chain vs. apparently everybody with any access in the process dipping their hands into the till in Russia. More accountability built into the process? More respect for the military socially (or at least open disrespect frequently gets you publicly dunked on anyway)? Or something else? The us pile of money is enormous, and billions are just disappearing into proverbial empty boxes. https://www.city-journal.org/article/americas-missing-money https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2014/06/19/how-the-us-lost-billions-over-nine-years-in-iraq.html https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-pentagon-missing-billions-in-military-equipment-2716923/amp/ But shovel even more trillions into the MIC and eventually something comes out. E: that said, the levels of outright fraud between russia and the US are on different levels. I think Perun’s video on defense sector corruption was great. The types of audits in a military and society in general will affect what kinds of corruption you see. It’s easier in the Russian army than in the US army to do outright theft on a physical level. Charging 600 bucks for a wrench is an easier, and riskfree, form of corruption instead. Perun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4 lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Jul 28, 2023 |
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Jul 28, 2023 20:18
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:a significant segment of the media certainly didn't help. i think the broader takeaway for both conflicts (and plenty more before) is that mass sentiment about people and events far far away from them are abstracted and quite malleable, and that elites with the ability to mold them have limited qualms about propagating views that are, in hindsight, considered reprehensible by most, even those that espoused or agreed with them at the time Yeah Americans should not point and laugh at other countries' propaganda given just how absurd post-9/11 US TV was. As an outsider looking it, it was scary AF.
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Aug 11, 2023 11:51
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Libluini posted:Something new from the Zeit Liveblog. Another news from the meeting in Sweden is that Ukraine will be allowed to locally produce stridsvagn 90, which while not a bleeding edge tank in any way has been reported to do well for Ukraine as a workhorse afv. It’s another step for making the long term prospect of the Ukraine armed forces improve.
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Aug 19, 2023 20:40
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It would be amazing if this thread could discuss the war in Ukraine instead of pages upon pages of discussions about general moral questions of armed conflicts. Maybe that would benefit of being done in, I don't know, a thread about general moral questions of armed conflicts?
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Aug 20, 2023 13:05
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Ukraine getting F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-netherlands-f16-9252de3ad10357a41212262c560874aa Swedish news says 42 planes from Netherlands, yet unknown about Denmark. That’s… pretty nice.
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Aug 20, 2023 14:06
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Slashrat posted:Now that the band-aid is off I'd be surprised if the US doesn't eventually dip into their huge stock of F-16 airframes too, but the number of trained pilots and mechanics are going to be bottleneck for a while still. Good thing that several countries are helping training pilots for them.
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Aug 20, 2023 14:09
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Sad Panda posted:What impact will getting F16 have for Ukraine? Obviously given training they won't have them in this counter offensive, but if they did how would it have helped? The difference is mainly (except for more planes = more better) is that a small fleet of F-16 means they can now use NATO produced missiles of various types that their MIGs were not compatible with. So both more missiles = more better, but also new types of anti-radar missiles, longer range anti-air missiles etc. So this is bad news for Russia’s air force.
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Aug 20, 2023 15:04
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Djarum posted:I posted this a couple days ago and it went completely ignored for more bridge chat. It was confirmed a few days that US greenlighted other countries to send f-16s. This is Ukraine saying that they have a deal with Netherlands and Denmark and planes will actually be sent.
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Aug 20, 2023 17:15
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Nenonen posted:Netherlands have denied Zelensky's claim, they have 42 F-16's in total but they will look into how many can be given away. However many that is, hopefully they will be delivered sooner than later so Ukraine gets to start building operational experience with the equipment. Yeah it was always a hard cap on how long they would scrape by on what warsaw pact airframes could be scrounged up from Eastern Europe. Hopefully it’ll be just like with the tanks that this is just the official start of more countries supplying support.
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Aug 20, 2023 20:49
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Paladinus posted:My understanding is it has some strategic value for getting to Melitopol through Tokmak as it gives access to the main road on that path. Obviously, it's only step one. Also that it's a good sign for future events that Russia seems unable to scramble enough forces to halt or even significantly slow the gains that, if I'm not mistaken, have picked up pace on that vector the last week or so.
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Aug 22, 2023 12:59
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d64 posted:We are hoping the Ukrainians are slowly grinding down the Russian forces. But do we have evidence this is happening, and not just as well the other way around? All we seem to know for sure is Ukraine is slowly taking some territory, and not much more. Various medias report that the counter offensive has had a high price for them, but concrete details seem scarce. Not 100% slam dunk evidence where Putin published a paper saying "all our tanks are dead!", but if you check the updates from Institute of Study of War they are overall more openly talking about noticable degradation of Russian assets lately. https://www.understandingwar.org/ Among others there are signs of the Russian counter-artillery assets really getting plummeted, which means that Ukrainian artillery can operate more freely, which in turn means that Russian soldiers getting caught by artillery while repositioning are taking higher casualties. I'm seeing more videos of Russian columns getting bombed to bits than I've seen before in the offensive. This is also something Russian milbloggers are complaining about. Milbloggers are not a reliable source, but there's often at least a kernel of truth there. E: it's interesting that I'm starting to see mainstream media here in Sweden finally making articles on how the offensive is stuck and Ukraine can't budge Russia, now that there's been more progress the last week or so than in a long while. It's like MSM is always lagging behind a lot in this conflict. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Aug 22, 2023 |
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Aug 22, 2023 22:26
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Nenonen posted:Here's a map of the crash site's surroundings. Source is Yle, I used Google to translate the image, it didn't understand that "42ITOR" is "42nd air defense regiment". The Assassination of Jevgenij Viktorovitj Prigozjin by the Coward Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin. That’s a lot of AA regiments close by.
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Aug 24, 2023 21:30
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Once they have broken through the second line of defense, how many layers of defense remain before they can entire the Russian rear unopposed? And how many of these have anti-tank ditches? It’s not 100% identical across the entire front, but in general there are third lines that are weaker overall and are more meant to be for reserves and fall back points. If Ukraine breaks through the second line it’s really bad for Russia, it’s not like there’s a third line that is just as impressive waiting for them. Also the defense works themselves are not the only, or even main, factor. It seems from reports that the artillery exchange has been favourable for Ukraine lately, which means that the Russian advantage of artillery plus minefields is weaker. I think that’s a big part of why Ukraine is having an easier time pushing through the defense lines now than during the first stages of the offensive.
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Aug 27, 2023 21:04
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. This would be the best thing Russia could hope for right now.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:23
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ethanol posted:begs the question what does the us secretary of defense actually do Duh obviously the secretary takes notes at meetings.
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Sep 3, 2023 22:36
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Tomn posted:There's an interesting thought - one of the takeaways a lot of people are getting from this war is the importance of artillery and artillery shell supply, but part of that is because both Ukraine and Russia are, well, built around artillery as a doctrine. I wonder if shell and artillery supply would be quite as important if we were looking at a major NATO combatant with full NATO training and equipment? Would effective air power be enough to make artillery shortages less pressing? The answer, given that NATO's European forces, even with the help of some non-NATO countries, almost ran out of several types of missiles when attacking the military powerhouse of.. *checks note* Libya? after just a week of sorties, is that no, nobody was even close to prepared ammo-wise for an actual war between two non-third countries that goes on for more than a few months.
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Sep 6, 2023 07:29
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I feel like this gets reported every couple of months. Nah this is new, started being reported the last couple of days. Russia shuffling units southwards in lack of proper reserves has been widely reported for weeks, and the Ukrainian recent successes at Donetsk and south of Bakhmut might just be a result of the defenses there thinning out.
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Sep 10, 2023 21:42
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Paladinus posted:
What has changed is that Russia is much more afraid of operating outside their ports between the triple threats of drone boats, western-provided long range cruise missiles and Ukraine-made anti-ship long range missiles coming online. Much of the Russian fleet was moved eastwards in the Black Sea and is now mostly sitting in port afaik. That's party why their grain blockade is not working. Can't stop and inspect cargo ships if you are afraid of going into the western half of the Black Sea. And you can't just shoot all international cargo traffic from a distance without seriously pissing off your last semi-neutral neighbours such as Turkey. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 12:32
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Sigmund Fraud posted:Sweden is looking to donating one to two divisions (16-18 planes each) of SAAB Gripen jets. The government will soon request the ministry of defense to report how fesable it would be. The Gripen is a 4.5 gen multi role jet fighter capable of operating from improvised air strips such as highways. The govt. is hoping for a short time frame with deliveries next year. There is political unity in supporting Ukraine militarily but the cost of donating upwards 36 modern fighters is eye watering for such a small country. Fyi it was reported yesterday and today in Swedish media that the previously promised training on gripen is under way and Ukrainian pilots and techniciams are on site in Sweden for training. And yes the Gripen is literally designed to defend against Russia in terrain and climate very similar to Ukraine so it would be a very good fit. e: from a more cynical perspective, there's also the angle that Sweden's defence industry has tried for decades to get more export deals for Gripen, but have often lost out either due to the plane being untested in combat or because of the US waving enough carrots and sticks for countries to buy F-35s that they don't need instead. Sweden suddenly wanting to intervene in Libya by sending Gripen planes was, at the time, often described as a marketing ploy. So while sending 30 planes to Ukraine would be a staggering chunk of our defense budget, it's possible that there are talks about future contracts (either for the Ukrainian airforce or other countries) that could make it it slightly more palatable. For perspective, it'd be 1/3 of our fleet of Gripen. I'd be like the US sending 180 F-35s. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Sep 13, 2023 |
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Sep 13, 2023 20:59
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eke out posted:yeah i'm not an expert but i think that's too many big missile holes for a submarine to have It's mostly a matter of how many buckets and mobiks you can fit in what is left of the internal structure.
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Sep 18, 2023 12:58
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 09:46 |
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Close anti-air weaponry is also effective if not a single shot it fired because it has forced CAS to stay out of range.
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Sep 22, 2023 09:42
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