War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Jumping on the "post things that got a bit lost at the end of the last thread" bandwagon:

quote:

-At the close of this month (March), 4,000+ soldiers done with training in Germany, and 1x M2 Bradley Brigade and 1x Stryker brigade will be done with combined arms training and be returned to Ukraine.
-Training two motorized infantry battalions in Germany presently

Just in time for a summer offensive. These things are going to go through the Russian lines like a hot knife through butter that's been rotting in a warehouse for 30 years.

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:38

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 00:33

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

The whole point of sanctions, though, is to make it difficult to impossible for them to replace a lot of stuff even if they do "fully militarize" their industry. You can convert all the Aeroflot factories to make kalibr missiles you want, it's not going to do any good when you can't get a single semiconductor.

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:55

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

A couple of feel-good stories I found on the Washington Post today:

WaPo posted:

After fleeing war, Ukrainians rush to help Mississippi tornado victims

The seven Ukrainians set out just before midnight to make the long drive to their destination. They were on an aid mission to a grimly familiar scene of devastated communities and leveled homes.

But the refugees were thousands of miles from their homeland and the war that changed their lives. Their journey wound down Interstate 55, starting in Minnesota, where they had resettled just months earlier, and ended in a disaster zone wracked not by bombs, but by the wind: several towns in Mississippi recovering from a devastating tornado that killed at least 25 in late March.

...

Aswar Rahman, a Minneapolis-based digital producer, founded the agency in March 2022 after visiting the Polish-Ukrainian border and seeing the challenges facing refugees there, he said. A month later, when the Biden administration�s Uniting for Ukraine program created a path for Ukrainians with an American sponsor to secure two-year stays in the United States, the American Service started helping refugees resettle in Minneapolis.

Rahman said he was struck by the kinship that grew in the apartment building where the American Service found housing for Ukrainian refugees. Those who had been there for a few weeks or months were quick to help with the myriad challenges facing new arrivals: like buying SIM cards, applying for Social Security numbers and completing post-arrival immigration forms.

�I feel like I have a big family,� said the American Service�s Minnesota director, Sofiia Rudenko, who arrived in the United States from Ukraine in late December. �I realized that last week, I didn�t even cook because my neighbors kept feeding me every day.�

That spirit convinced Rahman that the refugees wouldn�t hesitate to help other communities in need, too. When he saw news of the March 24 tornadoes that devastated Mississippi towns, he pitched the idea of taking a team to deliver aid. Rudenko, 22, thought it was a great idea.

�I didn�t even think whether I should say yes or no,� she said. �I just started thinking that I need to invite people, like [other] Ukrainians.�

As she expected, everyone leaped at the proposal. The team of eight � seven recent Ukrainian arrivals, accompanied by Rahman � had to turn down additional volunteers because they no longer had room in their cars, Rahman said. None of the Ukrainians had been in the United States for longer than three months. Pavliuk and Hasiuk didn�t mind that it had been less than two weeks since they arrived.

�They decided to go immediately and started packing their clothes,� Rudenko said. �I guess they didn�t unpack it, even.�

I live next door in St. Paul and will be looking for ways to volunteer with this group if possible.

WaPo posted:

Mark Hamill, as Luke Skywalker, voices air raid alerts in Ukraine

...

�Attention. Air raid alert,� Hamill�s voice booms when the country�s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. �Proceed to the nearest shelter.�

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: �Don�t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,� a nod to a Skywalker line from �Return of the Jedi.�

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: �May the force be with you.�

...

Last year, he was named ambassador for an initiative set up by the Ukrainian armed forces to raise money for drones to combat Russian aggression.

The �Dronation� campaign (tagline: �These are the drones you�re looking for�) helped fund 1,400 drones in three months, according to the campaign website.

...

For some in Ukraine, Hamill�s voice is a balm during difficult moments. One fan wrote on Twitter that his voice �cheers me up.� Another said, �It�s such a little thing, but it keeps our spirits up and helps handle stress from almost daily air raid sirens.�

[/quote]

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 16:01

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Finland is in.

The final act of Finland's accession was completed as Finland's foreign minister handed the accession document to Antony Blinken

# ¿ Apr 4, 2023 14:09

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1643258720393019393?t=KUjMsj1_tln3v61ZQR23bg&s=19

# ¿ Apr 4, 2023 15:37

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1643323819698913285?t=-McuYCwHbsbIqnk0Z_nxPQ&s=19

Specifically:

quote:

The $2.1 billion, which is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a funding program led by the Department of Defense, will be used to purchase missiles for NASAMS air defense systems. The money will also be used to purchase antiaircraft ammunition, mobile laser-guided rocket systems, fuel tankers and other equipment, according to the Pentagon.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2023 19:54

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah there's a big difference between a visit and a state visit, but everyone including the media often use the terms interchangeably.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2023 18:29

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

WarpedLichen posted:

What is the difference besides the pomp and circumstance?

That's literally it.

Wikipedia posted:

A state visit is a formal visit by a head of state to a foreign country, at the invitation of the head of state of that foreign country, with the latter also acting as the official host for the duration of the state visit. Speaking for the host, it is generally called a state reception. State visits are considered to be the highest expression of friendly bilateral relations between two sovereign states, and are in general characterised by an emphasis on official public ceremonies.

Less formal visits than a state visit to another country with a lesser emphasis on ceremonial events, by either a head of state or a head of government, can be classified (in descending order of magnitude) as either an official visit, an official working visit, a working visit, a guest-of-government visit, or a private visit.[1][2]

quote:

State visits typically involve some or all the following components (each host country has its own traditions):

- The visiting head of state is immediately greeted upon arrival by the host (or by a lesser official representative, if the two heads of state are to meet later at another location) and by his or her ambassador (or other head of mission) accredited to the host country.
- A 21-gun salute is fired in honor of the visiting head of state.
- The playing of the two national anthems by a military band. The guest country's anthem is usually played first.
- A review of a military guard of honour.
- The visiting head of state is formally introduced to senior officials/representatives of the host country and the hosting head of state is introduced to the delegation accompanying the visiting head of state.
- An exchange of gifts between the two heads of state.
- A state dinner, either white tie or black tie, is mounted by the hosting head of state, with the visiting head of state being the guest of honour.
- A visit to the legislature of the host country, often with the visiting head of state being invited to deliver a formal address to the assembled members of the legislature.
- High-profile visits by the visiting heads of state to host country landmarks such as laying a wreath at a military shrine or cemetery.
- The staging of cultural events celebrating links between the two nations.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Apr 5, 2023

# ¿ Apr 5, 2023 19:18

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Comstar posted:

So it was secret information that was posted to 4 chan to win an argument and then someone else took the casualties figures and swapped them around.

21st century warfare is remarkable stupid at times.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 14:50

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Thinking about it more, yeah it's dumb and silly as all hell but at the end of the day is it any dumber and sillier than "oops I dropped a copy of all of our troop movements right where the enemy army is going to set up camp" or "we put some fake orders on a dead body and floated it over to the enemy and they actually believed it lol"?

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 15:45

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

The wow_mao papers.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 18:08

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Each month it gets pushed back when they were actually posted they become less damaging. I mean yeah it's not great but logistics reports from January aren't going to be super accurate in April.

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 00:21

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1644682219825373184

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 13:50

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah. Big trench, huh?

Alternate thought: take a look at this invading army’s big trench.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Apr 8, 2023

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 14:58

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

NY Times has an in-depth summary of the stuff that leaked:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html

Some excerpts I found interesting:

quote:

The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow�s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself.

The documents lay bare the American assessment of a Ukrainian military that is also in dire straits. The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages of air defense munitions and discuss the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine�s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington�s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine�s fighting strategies.

The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. Intelligence collection is often difficult and sometimes wrong, but the trove of documents offers perhaps the most complete picture yet of the inner workings of the largest land war in Europe in decades.

quote:

Senior U.S. officials said an inquiry, launched Friday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, would try to move swiftly to determine the source of the leak. The officials acknowledged that the documents appear to be legitimate intelligence and operational briefs compiled by the Pentagon�s Joint Staff, using reports from the government�s intelligence community, but that at least one had been modified from the original at some later point.

quote:

The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way. For example, one entry, marked top secret, discusses the Russian General Staff�s plans to counter the tanks NATO countries were providing to Ukraine, including creating different �fire zones� and beginning training of Russian soldiers on the vulnerabilities of different allied tanks.

Another entry talks about an information campaign being planned by the GRU, Russia�s military intelligence unit, in Africa trying to shape public opinion against the United States and �promote Russian foreign policy.�

The US also has some "signals intelligence" sources in the South Korean government gave them insight into government deliberations. Hacked phones? Bugs?

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 20:30

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Well several factories did catch fire mid-2022 in what was speculated to be industrial accidents caused by ramping up production in already unsafe conditions.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 14:38

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah the chain of events appears to be 1: Documents leaked earlier this year on some random Discord server -> 2: Some Russian bad actors found them and did some modifications like inflating Ukrainian and reducing Russian casualties (by just switching them around lol) -> Telegram/Russian media boosted the altered documents which lead reporters down the rabbit hole to the original source -> US intel community went "oh poo poo."

# ¿ Apr 11, 2023 18:22

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Either way, we don't have enough adjectives in the English language to describe just how hosed this guy is.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 14:30

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

hailthefish posted:

celebrating your 87th birthday in leavenworth because your christofascist militia sycophants didn't have enough appreciation for the hard work you were doing preparing briefings on stolen classified intel for them

incredible

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 15:18

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

OddObserver posted:

If he gets to Russia he probably has a TV guest gig waiting for him. Good chance he gets arrested ~~in Bulgaria or something,~~ at an Alabama rest stop after being reported AWOL from Fort Benning, though.

We're not exactly dealing with a master of espionage here.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 16:31

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

"Members of Thug Shaker Central who spoke to The Times said ..."

So many good sentences coming out of this thing.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 17:33

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

I know, it rules.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 17:36

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Why the gently caress did someone from a state national guard have a security clearance for information more sensitive than where the national parks are located?

https://twitter.com/johnismay/status/1646647045229256704

quote:

The wing commander�s biography says he is responsible for 1,260 military and civilian personnel, and their duties include responding to domestic emergencies in Massachusetts while training for wartime missions.

Those missions are given as �intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations, cryptologic intelligence, cyberengineering and installation support, medical and expeditionary combat support.�

A unit at the Otis base also processes intelligence from U-2 spy planes, RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-4 Reaper drones and provides support to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. That unit, the 102nd Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Group, is a subordinate unit of the 102nd Intelligence Wing.

"National Guard" units in the US are technically state militias but in reality are fully fledged military units that basically do everything the "real" Army/Air Force does, including intelligence and logistics support.

# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 03:31

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/drewharwell/status/1646886505917423616

# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 23:46

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Isn't he making a joke about how Putin thinks Ukraine is an artificial state?

# ¿ Apr 17, 2023 18:25

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

A state's "territorial waters" (often referred to as just "x's waters") is not the same as its Exclusive Economic Zone, which is 200 nautical miles offshore or until the continental shelf drops off, and is often also confusingly referred to in media as "x's waters." In crowded places like the Baltic, Med, or areas where many different states are crowded along a coast like West Africa it can get confusing fast.

Maritime law and arguing over quirks in geography is a huge part of international law.

# ¿ Apr 19, 2023 15:10

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me?

# ¿ Apr 20, 2023 14:35

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

This would have been wild:

quote:

Ukraine planned to attack Russian forces in Syria, leaked document shows

Last winter, according to a top secret document from the Discord Leaks, Ukraine�s military intelligence directorate put in motion a plan to strike Russian troops and Wagner mercenaries in Syria, before President Volodymyr Zelensky directed a halt to the operations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/

# ¿ Apr 20, 2023 22:24

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

WaPo got their hands on some interesting documents, surprisingly not from the Discord leak.

quote:

Kremlin tried to forge an antiwar coalition of the far left and far right in Germany to hinder support for Ukraine, documents show

The Post reviewed documents obtained by a European intelligence service that recorded Kremlin officials ordering Russian political operatives to focus on Germany to build antiwar sentiment in Europe and dampen support for Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/21/germany-russia-interference-afd-wagenknecht/

quote:

The documents � details of which were broadly corroborated by officials in Western governments � show for the first time the Kremlin�s direct attempts to interfere in German politics by seeking to forge a new coalition among Wagenknecht, the far left and the AfD, as well as to support protests by extremists on the left and right against the German government.

The aim of a new political formation, according to a document dated Sept. 9, would be to win �a majority in elections at any level� in Germany and reset the AfD to boost its standing beyond the 13 percent the party was polling at then. The reset, laid out among the documents in a proposed manifesto for the AfD that was written by Kremlin political strategists, includes forging the AfD into the party of �German unity� and declaring sanctions on Russia as counter to German interests.

quote:

Wagenknecht, 53, is a former Communist who grew up in East Germany and has clashed several times with the more traditional leadership of Die Linke, including over her populist stance against unauthorized immigration and her claims that the party was too focused on left-wing academic elites, not the working class.

Opinion polls show that her popularity is growing nationally and she is openly mulling forming a new party.

quote:

The AfD � called the party of �Putin understanders� by some in Germany � has echoed the Kremlin�s view that the war in Ukraine was triggered by the United States and that Russia was simply defending itself from NATO encirclement while protecting Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. Moscow has long cultivated dozens of AfD members, especially through lavish, all-expenses-paid trips to Russia, documents and interviews show.

It is not clear from the documents how the political strategists working with the Kremlin attempted to communicate with members of the AfD or other potential German allies about Moscow�s plans. But soon after the Kremlin gave the order for a union to be forged between Wagenknecht and the far right, AfD deputies began speaking in support of her in parliament and party members chanted her name at rallies. Bj�rn H�cke, chairman of the AfD in Th�ringen in eastern Germany, publicly invited her to join the party.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Apr 21, 2023

# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 16:20

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Yeah the deeper I get into this article the more hyperbolic the headline and lede seem.

quote:

One of the individuals in contact with Russian officials was Ralph Niemeyer, Wagenknecht�s ex-husband. He told The Post that he was still in near-daily communication with Wagenknecht and that during recent meetings with top-level Kremlin officials in Moscow it was clear to him that �there are certain people in Russia who have [an] interest� in a union between Wagenknecht and the far right.

�I know from private talks with these people that they are aware of the potential that this would have,� said Niemeyer, whose house was raided in late March as part of a criminal investigation over his alleged involvement in a plot by the ultra-right Reichsb�rger movement to overthrow the German government � allegations that Niemeyer denies.

So she's a member of the left-wing party but her ex-husband and still-current confidant is one of those German equivalent of a Sovereign Citizen?

quote:

In early July, Putin declared that �even in the countries that are still satellites of the United States, there is a growing understanding that their ruling elites� blind obedience to their overlord, as a rule, does not necessarily coincide with their national interests, and most often simply and even radically contradicts them.�

Days later, Kiriyenko summoned the political strategists to the Kremlin, and they began to try to exploit the perceived contradiction identified by Putin, the documents show. The political strategists had been told at the meeting with Kiriyenko that their main target was Germany, where they were to discredit the European Union, the United States, Britain and NATO while convincing Germans they were being harmed by the sanctions imposed on Russia, one of the documents dated July 13 shows. The share of the German population in favor of improving relations with Russia, Kiriyenko demanded, was to be boosted by 10 percent within a three-month time frame, a later document shows.

The Russian political strategists rued the difficulty of their task. �This is going to be complicated,� one of them noted. They immediately scrambled to work with Russian troll farms to pump out slogans for German social media platforms and protests � �Buy gas, not war� and �Ukraine wants war, Germany want peace.� Preparing slogans for protests over soaring energy costs formed another part of the strategy, according to the documents, though that issue failed to get much traction because of a mild winter in Europe and the German government�s ability to diversify energy supplies.

The campaign even extended to graffiti to be painted on walls across Germany and then photographed and placed in the German press, the documents show. These included a drawing of a fat �Uncle Sam� saying, �Bear it a few more years.� Another depicted German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sitting on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, waving a Ukrainian flag and saying, �I don�t care what the Germans think.� It is unclear whether any of this graffiti appeared.

Sounds like a real elite operation they had running there.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Apr 21, 2023

# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 17:48

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Willo567 posted:

So EuromaidanPR is considered a lovely source right? Would this footage then be likely fake?
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1650439450155970560

Oh you didn't hear? Yeah, a drone put a grenade through Putin's office window. I guess the nukes are in the air right now. You'd better start working out for when your draft number comes up.

# ¿ Apr 24, 2023 18:36

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

NPR's Tim Mak has always been a pro follow and now he's striking off on his own.

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1650863472165650437?t=Ltx3e3MaUCU3hkc6mQH6zQ&s=19

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 19:39

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Some more news from the Discord leaks, this time kinda depressing news:

Washington Post posted:

Russia can fund its war against Ukraine for another year despite sanctions, leaked document says

While some of Russia�s economic elites might not agree with the country�s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment that appears to date from early March � part of a trove of documents shared in a Discord chatroom, and obtained by The Washington Post.

# ¿ Apr 26, 2023 21:11

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

When the leaks first blew up I kinda felt sorry for the guy because it seemed like he was only a huge idiot who had just destroyed his life in order to be a big fish in a small Discord server and impress teenagers. Now, though, him being in prison is the best outcome to all of this.

# ¿ Apr 27, 2023 17:29

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

The whole thing is very weird so I'm guessing it's going to be one of those wartime events that we never actually get a satisfactory explanation for.

# ¿ May 4, 2023 18:52

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Ok, I gotta come clean because this is getting out of hand. I did it. I work at Amazon and one of the guards at the Kremlin ordered a bulk package of butane lighters so I sent it over by drone and, well, I'd had a few drinks as one does to get through the day and the drone just got away from me.

# ¿ May 5, 2023 03:45

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

That's the one with the intercepted radio chatter where the Wagner guys are going "holy poo poo they kicked our asses!"

# ¿ May 5, 2023 17:51

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I did read it. What is your point here exactly because its way better to get told that your time is up as opposed to being forced to leave. He made a mistake but took the high road. Good for him?

That's what I thought.

You guys are talking past each other because you're using different definitions of "his career was over," hth.

Not sure if it's comparable but the general in charge of US troops in Afghanistan also got "fired" for being extremely unprofessional in the presence of a reporter.

# ¿ May 6, 2023 22:51

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

mlmp08 posted:

Patriot is designed to detect and engage cruise missiles, anti-radiation missiles, tactical ballistic missiles, fixed-wing aircraft, unmanned aircraft, and rotary-wing aircraft.

So what you're saying is "anything between a quad-rotor drone and one of the city-killer ships from Independence Day."

# ¿ May 8, 2023 14:27

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 00:33

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Ynglaur posted:

There's some dark irony in Russia invading Ukraine and somehow making the US military even more capable by side effect.

This war has already had so many knock-on effects that Putin's War is going to be up there with the invasion of Iraq and the fall of the Berlin Wall in terms of watershed moments in history.

e: also "generals are always prepared to fight the previous war" doesn't apply when you get to watch someone fight the next war. The US military has a huge motivation for reform now that they know a military geared to fight low-tech insurgencies is going to get absolutely mulched by a near-peer opponent.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 20:26 on May 9, 2023

# ¿ May 9, 2023 20:23

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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