War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1641852678106906630

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 20:53

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 01:36

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Ynglaur posted:

That said, over time Russia may be able to improve

Wouldn't that requiring fixing all the corruption and other endemic mismanagement that defines the way Putin runs Russia?

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 21:04

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.ft.com/content/bdd8c518-bf10-4c9c-b53b-bfbe512e2e92

A UK-registered company has been caught shipping like $1bn worth of sanctioned semiconductors and high-tech electronics to Russia since February 2022, with their business �suddenly� booming in 2022. Going to be a good test of the UK actually putting its money where its mouth is.

It's currently stupidy easy to register a company in the UK with no checks. So you get stuff like ten thousand Chinese firms registered at a random person's flat as a tax scam.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/07/cardiff-flat-owner-gets-tax-bills-for-11000-chinese-firms

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 20:21

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

The BBC have a new 1hr documentary out, Ready for War?. (VPN+Free account should work), following a group of Ukrainians through the five week training operation in the UK. It gives an insight in to what training they get, but mostly it's a fairly bleak, emotional gut wrenching story of people.

# ¿ Apr 12, 2023 18:10

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

I seem to recall reading an article on the F117 shootdown recently, and it mentioned part of the issue was every tom, dick and harry on the base.

Fake edit:
600 people had access in the first two weeks of the Serbian campaign, later reduced to 100.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/mar/09/balkans2

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 19:03

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

We'll know the counter offense has started when footage of Challenger 2/Leopard 2/Bradleys/Abrams/AMX10 being used in anger starts to leak.

# ¿ Apr 19, 2023 14:30

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Looks like we want to supply some longer range weapons.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1652565974753615874

Stormshadow has been previously rumoured. That's 450kg warhead and 350km.

# ¿ Apr 30, 2023 12:30

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Willo567 posted:

So is it guaranteed that Britain will actually buy the missiles for Ukraine? It says that it's a proposal

Like Ahdinko says, it's not guaranteed. However it at least points towards the UK Govt. not being concerned about red lines that have delayed so many other aid items. It's should be a question of whether anyone has a feasible weapon at a justifiable price.

# ¿ Apr 30, 2023 22:03

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1655722764198707201
Why is this being reported as Britain is definitely sending long range missiles? I know Storm Shadows were talked about but there still hasn't been anything concrete.

My guess is their contacts with the UK government have confirmed it's no longer of question of "should we?" but only a practical question of finding the best suitable weapon(s). P,us the Tories took a beating in elections last week and supporting Ukraine is the only thing they have that isn't a complete poo poo-show. They're desperate for distractions.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 00:26 on May 10, 2023

# ¿ May 10, 2023 00:22

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Willo567 posted:

Are they enough to take down the Kerch bridge?

Right now, the bridge is right on the edge of the quoted range
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1656612051668664320/photo/1

Exact performance isn't ever going to be in the public domain, but there's a reasonable chance it has the accuracy and warhead to take out the required bridge supports. This is the most detailed overview of it I know.
https://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2022/11/storm-shadow/

I'm not sure it's ever been used against a foe to the level of Russia, so it'll be interesting to see how it does in a much more contested airspace. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen didn't/don't have the same level of air defences.

# ¿ May 11, 2023 12:57

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

ought ten posted:

Are these air launched or do they have a surface to surface version?

I'm not aware of anything ever pointing towards surface launch being an option. I suspect the turbojet engine is insufficient to give it take-of under it's own steam, and it lacks the solid booster stage of something like a tomahawk.

# ¿ May 11, 2023 13:22

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

ought ten posted:

So that map of the territory these can hit is probably bullshit. I don�t know what Russia�s effective AD envelope is but it feels safe to assume Ukraine isn�t going to be able to fly its jets right up to the front lines.

My attempt at a map:

Red is approximately where the frontline is. The yellow line is roughly the 300km limit line to hit anywhere in Ukraine. The far extents of Crimea might still be a challenge but everywhere shouldn't need a near the frontline launch. Usually they're seen being launched by the RAF at a high altitude then they drop down to terrain follow at low altitude. If they can be launched at a low altitude that will make it a lot easier for Ukraine as we know they already fly near the front-line at low altitude to do unguided rocket tosses.

# ¿ May 11, 2023 17:53

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Zelenskyy is back in the UK:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-welcomes-president-zelenskyy-to-the-uk-ahead-of-anticipated-ukrainian-military-surge

More talk about training Ukrainian pilots to NATO standard; we don't have any suitable planes to give but it's clearly again another play to break the seal anothers don't want to be first on. So sooner or later expect some PR of Ukrainians on Eurofighters.

quote:

This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programme used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets � Ukraine�s fighter jets of choice.

It's not clear what "long range attack drones" refers to. It would be a funny way to talk about Stormshadow but I don't think we have anything else already in our arsenal. Perhaps we've found a foreign supplier with something we can pay for, or we've managed to speed up something that was nascent domestically.

quote:

Today the Prime Minister will confirm the further UK provision of hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems including hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km

# ¿ May 15, 2023 11:29

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

WW2 is pretty much the founding myth of modern post-empire Britain. We might be living off food banks and our rivers full of poo poo (thanks to privitised water companies) but the chance to stand up to something militarily is the perfect reason to wave our union jacks.

# ¿ May 15, 2023 14:09

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Some details about the new UK drones starting to leak out but it's still quite vague.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/15/britain-send-ukraine-suicide-drones-twice-the-range-himars/

# ¿ May 16, 2023 16:30

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1659526582757732354
Zelenskyy doing a lot more travelling lately. Can't say I have much hope that the ruling class of the various Middle East kingdoms consistently do The Right Thing and not just lip service.

# ¿ May 19, 2023 13:21

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Djarum posted:

fake Dragon's Teeth

Talking of which, I came across this video a few days ago. No idea of the source but it's got to Ukrainian given the appearance of the concrete tetrahedrons of shame.
https://twitter.com/MMaenpaa1/status/1659934483758436353

# ¿ May 23, 2023 23:03

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

How many dumb shells is a 155 Bonus or Smart shell worth?

# ¿ May 25, 2023 12:12

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Libluini posted:

Ukraine has started asking for the German cruise missile Taurus.

Which made me sit up, since development of that thing was a giant pain for the Bundeswehr. But looking the thing up on Wikipedia, Germany apparently eventually managed to make some, and even Spain and some other country I think? got some.

Our current stock (Germany) is something like 600, but we also don't need a bunker-busting cruise missile right now, so there's really no reason not to give them over. Eventually, since the thing is mainly launched from a fighter.

The one minor obstacle: The F-16 is one of the fighters that can't carry a Taurus. The things are only compatible with Tornados, Eurofighters, F-18s, F-15s and JAs-39 Gripen.

But since Germany is thinking about training jet pilots for Ukraine, maybe eventually we'll see something like German Tornados and a bunch of those approx. 500 km range missiles showing up on the front? Maybe 1-2 years from now, if the war hasn't ended by then.

If they give Ukraine Taurus, I'd expect it to be launched from Su24 just like Stormshadow apparently is.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1661410105366020107

# ¿ May 26, 2023 21:57

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

SlowBloke posted:

Ajax has noise and vibration issues big enough to had a formal review being done about them.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ajax-noise-and-vibration-review/ajax-noise-and-vibration-review

They now claim to be back on track but most of the fixes sound like band aids to make it a workable environment rather than solving the underlying cause of the vibration (special seats, inproved headphones, etc). I mostly expect that they'll have bad long term reliability due to shaking themselves apart.

Re: ERA. Ukraine will almost certainly get a load of HESH rounds to use with the Challengers, so we might get some idea of modern NATO HESH vs Russian ERA during the counter offense.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Jun 2, 2023

# ¿ Jun 2, 2023 11:23

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Challenger 2 doesn't exclusively use HESH so I assume part of the training they had is appropriate round selection and HESH won't be the one for Russian tanks. But in the heat of battle, there's got to be the chance a Ukrainian ends up using one.

The only C2 lost in combat was to a friendly fire HESH round from another C2, but that was due to the HESH hitting an open hatch.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Jun 2, 2023

# ¿ Jun 2, 2023 12:40

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

It's ok, the missile attacks on Kyiv while the African delegation were there didn't really happy. Just more fake news.

https://twitter.com/PieterDuToit/status/1669683740044324865

# ¿ Jun 16, 2023 14:18

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Kikas posted:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1678699399570939904

"New" munitions, but SCALPs are basically Storm Shadows, so it's just more of the same.

Macron said same back in Mid-May so it's not a new promise.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-france-sending-scalp-eg-cruise-missiles

# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 11:54

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Comte de Saint-Germain posted:

I don't think he's being bad faith, I think the people in this thread have been extremely hostile to any notion that anything should be off the table when it comes to ukraine defeating russia. The mere idea that anyone could be against the use of cluster munitiions seems to be regarded by this thread as simply unacceptable wrongthink, an opinion only held by the deranged, idiototic, or evil. It is, in fact, a pretty mainstream opinion.

I think that there are a not insignificant number of people in this thread so caught up in righteous blood lust that they've simply decided that any opinions they don't share are simply unacceptable. That's honestly troubling, but I guess war does tend to do that to people- though the fact that the majority of you are americans is a little hosed up.

I think it's that this is a thread of little debate. This thread gets used as a way of sharing the constant stream of the most interesting new happenings, and occasionally posting follow ups that explains stuff in more details. Nobody is interested in have the same topics debated for page after page where it goes no-where. Everybody knows both sides of the argument for cluster munitions, everybody has already made up their mind, and so it's a bit boring hearing it again.

# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 16:06

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Sounds like there's a formal agreement on how to start F-16 training.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1678783312137953282

Who actually hands over F-16 (or cash or substitute planes for those handing over F-16) is presumably still a pain point to be solved.

# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 16:31

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Ynglaur posted:

EFFORT-POST ON INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLE LESSONS FROM UKRAINE
My guess is that they're proposing something based on the Griffin III, which came from Ajax (aka ASCOD).

As a Brit, my suggestion is that anything Ajax should only be touched with bargepole.

# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 08:43

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Operation Interflex now quoted as having passed the 18,000 trained mark.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1680215747430064128

# ¿ Jul 15, 2023 18:03

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

The only stuff that hasn't shown up in combat footage are the Challenger 2s. The Russian bots on twitter like to claim it;s because Russia destroyed them and/or their ammunition as they were being delivered. The more prosaic explanation is they have a lot more Leopards 1 & 2 so it probably makes sense to use those initially.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2023 23:29

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

My mistake. I'm sure I've seen them in footage but Onyx hasn't documented any losses.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2023 23:37

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

How many times do you trust the Russian Graft Machine to fix the bridge before accumulated damage causes a more catastrophic failure?

# ¿ Jul 31, 2023 16:34

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 01:36

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

The UK has done trials using the Malloy T400

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXPg-GW5EnU

We've definitely supplied the smaller T150 to them (one of which was captured by Russia). It's entirely possible they've also had a small number of the T400s donated.

# ¿ Aug 5, 2023 13:40

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