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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Moon Slayer posted:

There's a big splash of smoke in the air around where it looks like it started falling so I would certainly put my money on an explosion of some kind.
It might have been an explosive loaded on to the plane rather than a missile.

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OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Moon Slayer posted:

Don't ask me what this actually means for Ukraine in the short or medium term but I'm guessing not much as more aid will be passed in the future.
It's a pretty bad sign, the idiot caucus was able to get the aid stripped by refusing to vote for the bill if it included it, and threatening McCarthy's speaker post if he went to the Dems for votes, and in the end even though a wide majority of both chambers support Ukraine aid, apparently not nearly enough are willing to stand up for it if it's a make-or-break, and it has become a make-or-break because McCarthy is a chickenshit. Now they know they can get this concession out and nothing is stopping them from doing it again.

OneEightHundred fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Sep 30, 2023

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

DancingMachine posted:

An up or down clean vote would pass but GOP leadership isn't going to bring such a bill to the floor because it divides their caucus. They have a rule that they won't bring bills to the floor that don't have majority support from within their party.

To make a more specific prediction: I don't believe McCarthy will allow a clean Ukraine funding bill to get a vote. If such a bill happens it probably involves other turmoil with house leadership. Hope I'm wrong, but folks in this thread pretty consistently underrate the depth of rot in the GOP and the depth of dysfunction in US legislative process.
There's no reason to spin it off as a separate bill unless it's to make it fail. Usually rolling stuff into larger bills is easier because reluctant members can be brought on-board with sweeteners, and both houses of Congress right now are plagued with bullshit fake rules and leadership cowardice that allows blocking minorities to kill legislation.

The idiot caucus just gave up most of what Republicans USUALLY demand in concessions over $300M in Ukraine aid, what do you think they're going to do over a $24b stand-alone bill?

Usually this type of thing could also get resolved by party leadership threatening to torpedo members' district pet projects, but that doesn't work when dealing with members that don't care about governing and think humiliating McCarthy and showing they can get away with anything is its own goal.

OneEightHundred fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Oct 1, 2023

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Mr. Apollo posted:

I’ve come across several articles this evening that says that Biden is open to “significant concessions” on border security in exchange for getting the Ukraine funding bill passed. So it looks like the funding bill will play out like many people suspected.
https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1732799829401632942

Not soon, and it's really not looking good.

This shouldn't have needed a sweetener in the first place, and tying it to an Israel aid package was supposed to be a sweetener and it's still not sweet enough so now they "want" border security crap added on to it.

The problem is, Republicans don't care about policy right now, they care about this stupid obstructionist showboating crap and sticking it to Joe Biden. In normal times, the cost of doing this would be going back to constituents asking "why didn't you pass this?" but they can 100% get away with not passing anything. "Not passing anything" is pretty much the way they govern anyway. Israel will do just fine without an aid package unless they get embroiled in a regional conflict, and the border security crap looks way more like a poison pill than an important policy objective.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Dapper_Swindler posted:

My guess is biden gives them concessions on border stuff at least for the senate and then we see what happens in the house.
My guess is the Senate will come up with a compromise that will die in the House, and the House will continue to blockade Ukraine aid until it gets tied to something that's actually painful for them to vote down, and it's not clear what that would be, especially since it's already split off from the NDAA.

Just bringing up "border security" should be a hint that they want to just kill it because it's pretty well-established that they care way less about reducing illegal immigration than they do about getting mad about Democrats allowing it.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
Another layer of the problem is that as underprepared as the EU is for rule-of-law breakdown in a member state, the mechanisms that it does have largely stop functioning in a Poland+Hungary situation where there are 2 broken states protecting each other from anything that would require unanimity from the other member states.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Quixzlizx posted:

The funniest part about this is NATO is near the bottom of the average MAGA voter's list of priorities
I dunno how long that's gonna last with the MAGA information ecosystem being highly plugged into Russian propaganda efforts, which is how we got to this point of cutting Ukraine aid being a priority for Republicans in the first place.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
Tucker wanted to do it because it would trigger the libs, unfortunately for him Putin doesn't really care what Tucker wants.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
The fundamental problem is that too many Americans don't perceive it as an attack, which is made much worse by the fact that it's wormed its way into one of the major political parties in a way that it's all being inflected through domestic politics.

Like what do you even do when a hostile foreign power wants to elect a guy partly because he's sympathetic to them but mostly because he's a staggeringly-incompetent moron, and 30% of the country is like "but we want the staggeringly incompetent moron!"

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
The irony is that English is fairly unusual among European languages for NOT adjusting the spelling of foreign words in Latin script to meet its own spelling conventions, which is why English orthography is a complete trash fire of incompatible spelling conventions.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
You all laughed at the cybertrukk but now it is the future of warfare.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
Splitting it into separate bills was also done to make it easier for it to fail in the Senate so this isn't really over yet.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

small butter posted:

Is the House using the Hassert rule for Ukraine? As in, do a majority of Republicans have to be in favor for a floor vote? If so, is a majority of Republicans for Ukraine aid?
They've probably had majority Republican support for it for the whole 6 months that this debacle has gone on, they're not in this situation because of the "Hastert rule," they're in it because of the 1-vote motion to vacate threshold that they set in exchange for the speakership votes of idiots like Gaetz and MTG.

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OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Mr. Apollo posted:

Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”.
Because the Republican base has turned into a low-friction environment for Russian propaganda due to its anti-Biden alignment, and because they're still mad at Zelensky because of Trump Impeachment #1.

I mean they'll give other reasons, but those are the actual reasons.

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