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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Deteriorata posted:

Oryx includes drones and has confirmed nearly 400. Given the lifetime of drones at the front and the difficulty in confirmation of them, 600 is not outlandish.

UAVs are a separate category, though--they're claiming almost 2500 of those.

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Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/vofchekpan/status/1654413658296840194?t=Gx9qiNU9qsIc2kExUmjKuw&s=19

Guy on twitter says that his brigade managed to shoot down the fearsome Kinzhal missile from a Patriot. File this under "guy on twitter says" of course, but if true, I expect Ukrainian MOD to make a big deal out of it soon.

Here are photos, I'll let experts verify

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1654420929206800384?t=STu2HUDAI5Bxy9QLy9v9cA&s=19

Officially, apparently Ukrainian MOD has denied it happened:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1654467767737696256

e: But also, others think differently:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654448035445784576

So, :shrug: ?

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 00:14 on May 6, 2023

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

Really, are there stats on income/education of recruits from recent years? Hard to believe that.

In very broad strokes, kind of:

quote:

Most members of the military come from middle-class neighborhoods. The middle three quintiles for household income were overrepresented among enlisted recruits, and the top and bottom quintiles were underrepresented.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military

But really the one of the biggest predictors now is apparently "had a relative who served," not really loving boom-booms:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/us/military-enlistment.html

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 15:14 on May 24, 2023

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

acidx posted:

This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672414619275517952

Why do people think this is Wagner rather than regular Russian military/security forces, even assuming it's from the right location, date, and time (not saying it's not, just wondering what the proof is)?

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jun 24, 2023

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

acidx posted:

No Z poo poo on the vehicles for one.

Does Wagner not use the Z symbol? I thought they did.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

with a rebel yell she QQd posted:

So, looks like there will be no speech... at all. "Putin will not make any further comment on the issue. The invasion of Ukraine will continue as normal."

Where are you getting this from?

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Thanks! Very weird ending, if that's what this is. Have to imagine there's a lot more happening behind the scenes, but I don't know if we'll ever find out what.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Residency Evil posted:

I don’t understand how Prigozhin survives next week.

I think it's likely there's more to the deal than the Russian government is admitting to publicly:

quote:

Peskov declined to say whether any concessions had been made to Prigozhin, other than guarantees of safety for him - something he said Putin had given his word to vouch for - and for Prigozhin's men, to persuade him to withdraw all his forces.

He called the events of the day "tragic".

"There are no more conditions that I can tell you about," said Peskov.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-prigozhin-move-belarus-under-wagner-deal-kremlin-says-2023-06-24/

"That I can tell you about" seems like a pretty big caveat there.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

TheRat posted:

Last spring showed us that Soviet-era armour doesn't particularly enjoy deep mud at least.

My impression is Western armor (at least MBTs) would hate it even more given that they tend to be heavier.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Nenonen posted:

It's mainly a matter of ground pressure, so mass matters but so does track area that touches ground. Here's values for some basic tank models (kg/cm^2), actual values are higher depending on how much additional crap like ERA has been piled on them:

M2 Bradley 0.54
BMP-2 0.63
T-54 0.83
T-80 0.92
T-90 0.94
Leopard 2 0.83
Challenger 2 1.00
M1A2 1.09

So no drastic differences.

Fair enough--I remember it being a talking point back when people were debating whether to send Western MBTs, but that may have been an excuse/misguided.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

daslog posted:

Exactly! Losing Estonia and Latvia was bad enough. Losing Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Moscow and must be stopped from Putin's point of view.

Helsinki-St. Petersburg is an eight hour drive. Just saying, as long as we're measuring strategic significance in terms of drive time.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Okay having made that drive I had to check and ???



Fair enough--the first result I got from Google Maps said 7.something hours, but now I get 4.5ish. Doesn't really change the point, though.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Orthanc6 posted:

2 missiles were shot down when they collided with the interceptor. Said interceptor was the Black Sea Fleet HQ. 2 birds with 1 stone, it didn't even have to move to perform a successful intercept!

That reporter is being so careful to show nothing and talk vaguely and I still feel like he's walking a very fine tightrope.

To be clear, that "reporter" is really more of a Russian-side propagandist, if you look at the rest of his account.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

khwarezm posted:

Can I go out on a limb and think that a proper shooting war starting between Iran and Israel is going to be really, really bad for American support for Ukraine?

May depend--a serious, full-on war between Israel and Iran probably would be. A "war" where each sporadically launches ineffectual drones and missiles at the other, and Israel continues to periodically engage with Iranian proxy groups in Syria and Lebanon, maybe not, and might actually get Congress to pass the kind of combined Israel/Ukraine funding package that they've been trying to pass for a while (not a comment on the morality of it, to be clear).

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Apr 13, 2024

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Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

spankmeister posted:

The Tik Tok bill made it in, interestingly. ByteDance has to sell within a year or be banned in the US.

Well, pending the inevitable court cases.

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