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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Keisari
May 24, 2011

Moon Slayer posted:

Finland is in.


The final act of Finland's accession was completed as Finland's foreign minister handed the accession document to Antony Blinken

I can finally say it: Haista sinä Erdogan pitkä paska.

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Keisari
May 24, 2011

Rappaport posted:

Without any regard for our cousins in the West? Well I'll be.

Ah, right. It would be very on-brand for Erdogan to hold the Swedish application hostage because someone told him to sniff poo on the internet.

Ynglaur posted:

To any Goon Finns, congratulations on joining NATO. I unironically hope this means your country remains at peace for many years to come.

gently caress Putin.

Thank you. It feels absolutely surreal to watch that flag with the others. It's hard to grasp and truly comprehend (on an emotional level) how monumental change this is. There also hasn't been much fanfare here, almost everyone just seems to be quietly relieved.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

How do we know these are genuine?

Ukraine's counteroffensive capability might well be understrength, but it seems to me that leaking false intel to your enemy that underestimates Ukraine's counteroffensive would be a good play.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

No.

Hell no.

I refuse to believe this. You all must be doing some kind of elaborate and coordinated troll. :psyduck:

Keisari
May 24, 2011

sube posted:

yes though he has a map at his office how russia should be divided between different countries, so on this topic it's not just him saying stuff


Is the Kola peninsula and East Karelia etc assigned to Finland? If so, lmao.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Rip Cinci. Hope he will post again once he has served time for his internet crimes. He was great at moderating this thread. (I do not mean this as an attack on anyone else who is now moderating)

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Chalks posted:

I'm finding the theory that the drone attack was done to put pressure on Putin to relocate some air defenses from the front line pretty convincing.

I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another.

If Ukraine had the capability to strike Kremlin, they would have picked some other target that had actual military value, instead of a loving flag.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Considering how well this is going for Ukraine so far, wouldn't it be smart to launch multiple similar operations across the front?

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Nenonen posted:

Dunno if it would be smart to do it - Russians are now more alert at the border, and you need to plan such endeavours carefully not to end with a fiasco, and the people who are most capable of pulling it off are needed elsewhere right now. Also I wouldn't call it "going well" when we haven't seen anything conclusive yet, occupying a village does nothing to threaten Putin and it can still end in a disaster for the raiding party.

But giving the impression that Ukraine could launch more such raids? Yeah that could result in some panic reactions like generals getting fired and morale dropping which would be nice at the eve of a counter-offensive.

Oh by "going well" I meant as a psy op it's going well. I don't expect them to run all the way to Moscow after all.

But good point that this requires quite a bit of planning and can't just be copypasted.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

KillHour posted:

Depends on the intent - if they're trying to hold territory for leverage, it probably won't end well. If they're trying to distract and panic Russia's command chain from something else that's about to happen, I think it could be very successful. Rockets and planes here mean rockets and planes missing elsewhere.

Yeah this is analogous to checking in chess. Russia absolutely has to put an end to this fast, or it could escalate domestically.

And them diverting everything they can muster to counter this can be exploited elsewhere.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

CeeJee posted:

The last paragraph is incredibly dumb and designed to make Ukraine look bad. If a powerful enemy invaded the US and had a realistic chance of winning there is no chance the US Army would maintain its current deployment restrictions.
Using the words "every American conflict since the Second World War" should make you delete the line if you look at the nature of these conflicts compared to a literal war of survival as a nation with no nukes to fall back on. It's Amnesty International all over again where people who genuinely believe the best outcome is for Ukraine to just stop fighting.

Yeah. In Finland, the maximum wartime penalty for desertion of over 4 days is 12 years. 3 days of being AWOL can land you several years of prison.

There is nothing unprecedented about this. In world war 2, deserters were unceremoniously shot. If that was the law, I would get the criticism.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

So, my dad visited Ukraine and delivered some humanitarian aid. He has asked if I wanted to join him on his next trip, whenever that will be. I think he visited the Lutsk area if memory serves me right. I am wondering if anyone here knows how dangerous it would be to go there? We wouldn’t stay there for too long, under a day. Basically we’d go in, drop off the gear and chat a bit, and get the gently caress out. He says it’s perfectly fine but he’s… the kind of a person who will drive to a war zone to drop off poo poo and I don’t want to rely only on his word :v:

I have tried to figure it out and it would seem that Russia has nothing left that they could hit Lutsk with anymore, and statistically I would probably more likely die several times over in a car crash during the drive, but now that the trip is approaching and becoming more likely every week that passes, I have started to have a quite visceral worry about visiting a war zone. It would seem that at least in October last year they hit Lutsk with missiles in a way that broke the news threshold. The border stations are something I am especially worried that could be a target, as it has a lot of people in line.

Basically, I’d like to help out but don’t want my balls to get kinzhal’d. So yeah, does anyone know what Russia could bomb Western Ukraine with at this point, and if they have been bombing it lately? I haven't been able to find out for sure.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Moon Slayer posted:

Yeah if you're not 100% on board mentally, just don't go. Best case you'll be a bundle of nerves and no help to anyone.

MikeC posted:

I am unsure how far CNN's journalistic practices have fallen but I wouldn't expect "senior US military official" to be a random nobody or that they would quote someone who isn't informed on the file. Nor is CNN to my knowledge in the habit of of spreading doubt on the Ukrainians when in fact I find their coverage to be quite optimistic and pro-Ukraine. I posted this since Milley himself is quoted to as saying 'it will likely take a considerable amount of time' a week earlier, hence my "harsh" qualifier. Seems like some dichotomy in opinion in US circles?

VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV

Ukraine is not a place to visit if you have any doubts about whether you should go or not.

enigma74 posted:

Don't go if your presence will be a net negative contribution. Better to just stay home and support them with donations or something similar. If my friends or parents asked me to go, I'd say no too.

Yeah, these are good points.

Nenonen posted:

I think you will have a higher chance of getting killed in an accident with some Polish drunk driver or food poisoning at a service station than by being hit by a missile. How many western aid workers in western Ukraine do you think have been killed by Russian missiles so far?

This is the funny thing, I wholeheartedly agree that the chance is absurdly low compared to the chance of getting killed in a traffic accident on the way. Even inside Ukraine, dying in a car crash is assuredly far more likely than getting smoked by fascists. But it's funny how you can be taken over by an irrational (perhaps rational?) fear when push comes to shove. The feeling is hard to explain, but it feels a bit like fear of flight if you've ever had it. You know the chance is very low, but the thought of ending up in a plane crash can be terrifying. It's irrational and you know it.

Man I can only wonder how the Ukrainians feel. On the other hand, my dad said that the experience was kinda surreal, people lived their lives pretty normally, children walked to school on their own and so on. In Lutsk, that is. It's really sad that you get used to that kind of existential dread.

All-in-all, I'll keep an eye on if Western Ukraine gets any strikes or not and see how I feel about it when the time comes. And I'll be very careful around Polish gas stations if I muster the courage (and time off work, the trip takes a week after all) to go. :ninja:

Thanks for the posts, I probably won't whip myself as much if I do end up chickening out.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Saladman posted:

I mean, that’s not really sad, kind of the opposite? It would be way more sad if the 20 million or whatever people in Western Ukraine lived paralyzed in fear and kept their children in basements because a missile falls within 10 km of their house once every few months. It’s lovely that happens but spending their next five years living in a cave is a worse option.

Based on your way of thinking about it in vocabulary used ("chicken out") I would agree to not go. I don’t even get the point anyway of going to deliver supplies, just use DHL or whatever. If you want to go and your around and support the local hotel and restaurant industry and see Western Ukraine then that’s fine too, it’s not like you’re visiting a direct disaster zone where every resource you take is a resource not going to a needy local.

You can DHL poo poo in? :psyduck: but of course you can. I have no idea why I thought you couldn't. Lmao. Well that's good to know.

Perhaps I was unclear what I meant, I meant it's sad that people have had to live with such dangers for so long they have gotten used to it. Definitely good that people aren't terrified 24/7. Like, when I saw a 6 year old kid interviewed about getting harrassed by racists and them replying nonchalantly "You get used to it" it made me literally cry.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Nelson Mandingo posted:

The CIA is not all powerful. If the CIA was really this powerful, America would rule the world by now. No other nations governments could stand a loving chance. This is just a greedy goblin man who was about to lose his money and his protection and at threat of liquidation managed to convince his boys who are in a cult of personality to help him undermine the incompetent and bloated Russian leadership. The rewards are great, and the risk is a ignoble death. Which they'd also get that risk if they just stayed in Ukraine.

Yeah, also other countries and people have agency. USA is powerful yes, but is not a player in every event that happens in the world.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

So while I think the Ukrainian army will kick Russia out of Melitopol, I don't have high hopes they will do it tonight.

So I lost my toxx, and as promised will pay 50 euros to a charity.

Cinci said that the admins will pick a charity, however I was wondering if it was ok if I pick one from this thread? https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3994478

I have understood that they are all vetted to a degree and enjoy the admins' approval. Who do I message with proof? (Don't want to just plaster it here)

Sorry, first time toxx. :v:

Edit: (about to go to sleep I'm 95% sure I'll be able to clear this tomorrow, dunno what the timetable is with these)

Edit 2: yea I'll wait a few days for instructions, and will then just go with one of the charities in the thread if I get none.

Keisari fucked around with this message at 11:57 on Sep 10, 2023

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Nenonen posted:

I will take part in your shame and also donate fifty to charity. Inform me about the procedure.

Sure, misery loses company. :v:

I am still convinced that the reverse-fall (rise?) of Melitopol isn't far off. :colbert:

EDIT:

And would toxx on it too if my dog hadn't required multiple surgeries this summer.

Keisari fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Sep 10, 2023

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Ok so I now went ahead and picked the children's charity from the donation thread and threw in 50 euros + paypal's cut, which was an euro or something. I consider my :toxx: now resolved.

Nenonen posted:

I will take part in your shame and also donate fifty to charity. Inform me about the procedure.

As promised, I did it and will now tell you how to easily join my shame entourage: This thread (https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3994478) has a list of charities. I picked the children's psychological help as it was something that was for sure 100 % concentrated on Ukraine and giving 50 euros to Ukraine is what I promised. Also, the thought of traumatized children played a big part in the selection.

There are many options but just using Paypal and giving them the 1 euro or whatever they take their cut as seemed as the most reliable, as direct wire transfers sounded like something that could have hidden fees or something.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Nenonen posted:

Thanks, will look into it later!

No problem!

Keisari
May 24, 2011


Space station

Keisari
May 24, 2011

EasilyConfused posted:

Agreed, really improves the joke.

Thanks for your sacrifice stevey666 :pressf:

Same, it was hilarious as hell. A true pre-coffee morning probe. Please let it stand!

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Eric Cantonese posted:

What does he actually want to do, though?

To be the President of the Republic of Finland.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Eric Cantonese posted:

I meant with respect to supporting or not supporting Ukraine. I admit that I walked into that vaudeville joke setup though, so I deserved that.


Right, right yeah. Being anti ukraine is political suicide in Finland. With regards to supporting Ukraine, he is a fanatic supporter. More accurately, he is rabidly anti-russian.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Bholder posted:

So the winner is capitalism

Not every phenomenon you hate is capitalism, or caused by capitalism.

This time it's "imperialism."

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Considering the dogshit state the Russian army is in, I reckon that if US cuts out all support to Ukraine they will still be able to defend Ukraine (presuming Europe continues to support), but any hope of liberation for currently occupied territory will be lost.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

DarklyDreaming posted:

On the one hand this benefits Russia because as far as most of its leadership class is concerned, this cost them nothing and can do it again for slightly more land whenever they think they have the advantage

On the other, it's gonna be a long time before they have anything resembling an advantage again

I didn't mean that any treaty would be signed, just that it would likely stagnate into trench warfare. But yeah, we can't allow Russia to just consolidate and try this poo poo again in 20 years.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

EasilyConfused posted:

Yeah, why haven't the mods probed Macron yet?!?

Only Cinci was a mod powerful enough to probe him.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Young Freud posted:

Apparently there was an alert from MARCH 7TH that Islamic State - Khrorasan was planning on an external operation to Afghanistan.
https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1771230886970683771?s=20

Evidently the best response is clear - Russia should attack Afghanistan. It's guaranteed to be a great idea, and also it's Russia's turn again.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Nenonen posted:

Obviously you first need to annex a few small states between Russia and Afghanistan first.

Nonsense, they are all CSTO members. CSTO members always help each out right? Russia has never hung a CSTO member out to dry after all.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

acidx posted:

It's the Kursk all over again lol. The Russian government values Russian lives even less than they value non-Russian lives.

Can you elaborate what you mean with "the Kursk" in this context? I'd like to read about it if it's something similar

Keisari
May 24, 2011


:stare:

Holy poo poo. It gets worse and worse the more you read.

In hindsight this foreboded the disastrous performance of the black sea fleet in this war.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

acidx posted:

When the Kursk incident happened, the US and other countries knew pretty much right away what happened, because they picked up the explosion. Putin denied there was an accident, and insisted everything was fine and they didn't need help. The West scrambled resources for a rescue mission but Putin turned them away. By the time he conceded they were in over their heads, it was a salvage mission, not a rescue. Turned out that there was an air pocket, and the sailors were alive for hours and hours after the explosion. They were just stuck there until they suffocated.

Essentially, they all died so that Putin wouldn't have to look like he needed the Wests help. But the accident made Russia look like a ridiculous trash can country that desperately needed help, so their deaths didn't even get to achieve that. Just an unbelievably stupid affair that we will likely see more parallels to in days to come.

Thanks! I can see the parallels now.


Popete posted:

The Kremlin did not handle the aftermath of the Kursk incident any better, including sedating a grieving widow with a syringe from behind well she yelled at a senior naval officer.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/aug/25/kursk.russia3

What the gently caress. This is totally nuts.

Edit:

"You'll get your sons" god drat that's cold.

Keisari fucked around with this message at 02:19 on Mar 23, 2024

Keisari
May 24, 2011


Thread title right there

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Putting a killswitch to your missiles sounds like a terrible idea to me. You are one hack away from losing your entire arsenal.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Volmarias posted:

Not your own, just the exports.

Lmao, good point. However, buying such missiles seems like a terrible idea to me for the same reason.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

BabyFur Denny posted:

Both sides are throwing absolutely everything at each other, are we also gonna make fun of Ukranian artillery teams for only having one shell a day to shoot?

Ukraine doesn't claim to be a great power, so no. Russia however...

Keisari
May 24, 2011

BabyFur Denny posted:

Only an empty-headed person could be persuaded to die for their country. I'd also nope the gently caress out of there if my country was under attack and I was in danger of being drafted. Especially to frontlines like the ones in Ukraine.

Lmao. Have fun living a life of exile and being shamed and shunned by everyone you know if your country ever gets attacked. And if everyone in your country shares your view, it will lose.

Edit:
Let me put it this way. If Russia attacked Finland and I chose to desert, these would be the consequences:

My father would certainly disown me. Would never talk to me again. My friends would go to the frontline and wonder why I left them to die. They would never talk to me. If caught, I would be sentenced to prison for over 10 years and would definitely receive a lot of abuse for abandoning my country. All other men and many women would shame me for running while they risk their lives. Most other women would shame me for not being there to protect them as is expected of me as a conscriptable man. I would never have a career again and would forever carry a stain of dishonor the like of which hasn't been attached on anyone for almost a century in here. And, I would probably still die in Russian terror strikes.

Want to re-examine your argument?

Keisari fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Apr 26, 2024

Keisari
May 24, 2011

BabyFur Denny posted:

I already left my home country, should I travel back and die defending a place I have no more ties to?
Of course I'd do my best to help out anyone I care about, but my loyalty is to the community I chose, not some artificial nation state construct I happened to be born in.

What about your current country?

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Grimnarsson posted:

I wonder if this is an expectation you put on yourself and think others put on you, while others, your family members, friends, etc would in reality be less harsh upon you? There's obviously various ways to refuse to fight, some more detestable like a rich person just moving away, and some more acceptable or understandable, like being in terror because you think you couldn't handle the stress of battle, but in general would you be as harsh to your family members or friends who deserted? Like I feel that people put more expectations on themselves than are actually expected of them. I also believe that someone who is not willing to do a thing has no right to shame someone else who is not willing to do that thing either and I think most people instinctively know that, in reference to "most other women would shame me" and that most of them would in fact not shame you.

It is not. I mean, ok, maybe I wouldn't lose all my friends, but I would be disowned by my father, go to jail for over a decade (if I don't get lynched in there or summarily executed or some poo poo) and I'd be professionally hosed. To what extent this would materialize doesn't really matter, as my point wasn't to ":qq: woe is me I can't desert without being reviled :qq:" but to retort the post that argued that anyone who goes to the front to fight is an empty-headed goober who was tricked into it. There are real pressures that make people choose to fight. When the war started I made the calculus that it's likely better to accept my duty should it come to that and just try to survive. Most soldiers survive wars.

I do not know how strong the conscription culture in Ukraine is exactly, but I am sure it is stronger after the war started than before it. Finnish society was electrified after the war in Ukraine started, you could almost taste it. I'd bet that the resolve in Ukraine is strong, but it's hard to get a realistic picture as we only get cherry picked anecdotes from different kinds of media.

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

all i can think of with all this finnish consript chat is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0SSif6CiOI

lmao

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Keisari
May 24, 2011

Cpt_Obvious posted:

You want someone to prove that a 10:1 kill ratio against a peer adversary is unlikely at best? Shouldn't such a statement be the baseline assumption and the opposite be the one to require proof?

I mean, with good enough gear and training it's more than possible... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

Yes, I know this isn't US and Iraq, but if the West finally pulled their heads out of their asses and gave Ukraine a lot of the good stuff, we could wrap this up in [training time for gear] + 3-6 months.

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