War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Turns out Twitter has been categorising posts about Ukraine in the same suppression bucket as Election and Medical Misinfo.

https://twitter.com/aakashg0/status/1641976925064245249

# ¿ Apr 1, 2023 21:28

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 10:08

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Looks like Russia has continued grinding out progress in Bakhmut. Contested sure, but slowly taking ground, wonder if the 5:1 ratio the Ukranians have been claiming in that area has any solid backing
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1642852858709016576

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 12:37

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Comstar posted:

So someone with secret or top secret access is posting on 4chan.

Secret is now the 'baseline' security clearance for anyone in the Australian military, who use the same classification structure as the US and is even included in that leak (FVEY). It's not as sensitive as it might seem on first guess.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 11:36

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

https://twitter.com/Troliadorpolska/status/1644389462976102422?t=oQv_wsfBSltE-sFfLN1zrw&s=19

Sharing secret info is no reason to be under investigation right guys?

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 18:21

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Another leak has hit the discord server

(unlocked link)
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/...USAEDMgxwcBipuQ

"The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites on Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an assessment of Ukraine�s air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled �Secret/NoForn,� meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries."

That's bad!

# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 22:49

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Crimea, the true "Thug Shaker Zone"

# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 01:14

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Vice now reporting that the tranche of classified docs had some homebrew dnd material thrown in as well
https://twitter.com/jason_koebler/status/1645482243056615426?t=PavCMg_xxBtQwbP1vP9Sew&s=19

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 18:52

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Deteriorata posted:

That's not D&D stats or class. Obviously a related TTRPG, though.

Sorry, used that as shorthand for ttrpg, it's actually a homebrew Call of Cthulhu sheet

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 19:31

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Turns out that media has been getting access to previously undisclosed docs from the leak (or from the discord screenshots at least) that outline some core concerns about the coming months.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1645693756182601728

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1645697584311173120

# ¿ Apr 11, 2023 09:01

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

ummel posted:

It begs the question, if the NSA isn't snooping on these types of discords, wtf is it even doing?

Much more targeted work against foreign militaries and state actors, or dragnets against entire capabilities?

# ¿ Apr 12, 2023 00:02

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Bit of a longer write up in Foreign Affairs about prospects of the spring offensive

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraines-best-chance

quote:

The West should have no illusions about what will be required of it on the military and economic fronts, even after the war. Although Kyiv has been grateful for Western weaponry, it has stressed repeatedly that much more is needed soon and indefinitely. If a Ukrainian victory seems nigh, U.S. and European policymakers will face urgent demands to boost their already substantial military support (even at the cost of diminishing their own military preparedness) to ensure that Kyiv clinches it.

In the economic realm, the war has produced staggering destruction in Ukraine as well as massive budget deficits. The latter, nearly $25 billion in 2022, could reach $38 billion this year. Kyiv�s needs for economic and humanitarian aid will increase as the war grinds on but will also persist once it ends. The World Bank estimates the cost of postwar reconstruction at $411 billion, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has put it at $750 billion.

These challenges should, however, be seen in the context of what has happened since February 24. Not only has Ukraine averted defeat and subjugation, but its army has pushed Russia out of large parts of the country with a blend of grit, savvy military commanders, and abundant Western training and arms. Even if Kyiv ultimately has to settle for a political settlement that requires concessions, Putin will have failed to subordinate Ukraine, shear off vast tracts of its territory, including its coasts, and attach them to a Greater Russia. When the war began, it seemed as though he would succeed in achieving all this and perhaps more. Now, a Ukrainian victory, even if it does not match Kyiv�s ideal, has become not just imaginable but also probable.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 00:57

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

The identity of the leaker is getting closer to being confirmed, interviews to come;

https://twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1646326727872749576

https://twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1646331360577986562

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 03:05

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Jimlit posted:

My favorite part is he had been posting classified info for a long time it's just that none of the kids cared since it wasn't game related.

The anti-warthunder to be frank, peak zoomerleaks.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 04:59

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1646598529610141697?t=WD3CYmwKHwKh-MoBLcbKbw&s=19
I hope everyone in his dogshit national guard unit gets put onto an Alaskan island to watch walrus migrations

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 21:23

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

No it's definitely this

Mooseontheloose posted:

To be fair, if everything is by the book NSA/FBI/whoever probably has to get warrants and have procedures in place to take an action.

FBI can't just pre-arrest someone

And basically the counter-intelligence environment is now this,
https://twitter.com/mjgault/status/1646622546022760454

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 22:21

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Nytimes have now posted a podcast on the hunt for blue shitposter

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/14/podcasts/hard-fork-discord-leaker.html

e: the actual Bellingcat investigation and methodology starts about 12min in and goes for about 15min.

Paracausal fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Apr 14, 2023

# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 11:01

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

BBC recently did a good story about the ongoing Cyber War that erupted out of the invasion and the blurring between criminal and government sanctioned hacking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zX9emwKYemE

Australia's ABC investigative reporting program 4corners is also airing an episode about Russian hacking groups targeting countries that have supported Ukraine, much more focused on domestic incidents in Australia but still related to the Cyber front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m6Ydx0TGMY

# ¿ Apr 17, 2023 12:30

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

clearer footage of the belgorod self-bomb have surfaced, you can see something bury into the road, then a few seconds later detonate as cars speed past
nsfw for a road (and possibly some cars) exploding
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649318357538045953

# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 09:24

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

"About 20 percent of recruits in Russian prisoner units are H.I.V. positive, Ukrainian authorities estimate based on infection rates in captured soldiers. Serving on the front lines seemed less risky than staying in prison, the detainees said in interviews with The New York Times"

Pretty loving wild situation these people have been put in.

‘A Quick Death or a Slow Death’: Prisoners Choose War to Get Lifesaving Drugs https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/...lX5LJbWHt7ElI2c

# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 13:36

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Turns out zoomerleaks went for a lot longer than initially thought.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1649561761022967821?t=Z_CS6HMV10mtMac5phJX1w&s=19

# ¿ Apr 22, 2023 08:24

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1650213316298457091?t=6f_b2FCNtOOThKhXi8vf_Q&s=19

Coming out and saying you're not taking prisoners is a good way to ensure you receive no quarter in kind? Also seems to qualify your organisation for terrorist status.

# ¿ Apr 24, 2023 03:24

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

There's some more specific rumbling around Tokmak as well. Nothing verifiable as of yet.

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 12:23

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Brown Moses posted:

There's no serious sources reporting this claim, it's just a rumour that started on Twitter.

Remember that blue ticks are now a sign of negative credibility now

# ¿ Apr 26, 2023 23:39

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

US Government motion for pretrial detention of Jack Teixeira was just posted where they now detail his (laughable) efforts to hide his footprints.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.255930/gov.uscourts.mad.255930.19.0_3.pdf

"the Defendant�s own obstructive and deceptive acts to date compound his risk of flight and dangerousness, have undermined any counterarguments he could offer in response, and give rise to �a serious risk that such person will obstruct or attempt to obstruct justice.�

"...following his arrest, authorities searched a dumpster at his residence and found a tablet, a laptop, and an Xbox gaming console, all of which had been smashed."

drat, can't believe the feds checked his trash!

"In November 2022, the Defendant stated that if he had his way, he would �kill a [expletive] ton of people� because it would be �culling the weak minded.�
� In February 2023, the Defendant told a user that he was tempted to make a specific type of minivan into an �assassination van.�
� Also in February 2023, the Defendant sought advice from another user about what type of rifle would be easy to operate from the back of an SUV. He describes how he would conduct the shooting in a �crowded urban or suburban environment.�
� In March 2023, the Defendant described SUVs and crossovers as �mobile gun trucks� and �[o]ff-road and good assassination vehicles.�

Very normal that he passed his security clearance checks.

"Moreover, as discussed above, the Defendant had multiple weapons just feet from his bed. A search of the Defendant�s primary and secondary residences�that of his mother and father� also revealed the existence of a virtual arsenal of weapons, including bolt-action rifles, rifles, AR-and AK-style weapons, and a bazooka."

That's my 2nd Amendment Bazooka please your honour.

# ¿ Apr 27, 2023 03:33

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Chalks posted:

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529

It really isn't minor, potentially drowning thousands of civilians through an intentional disaster is far in excess of anything Russia has done so far. Maybe not in body count but in the scale of a single action? What even comes close?

I don't think it's useful to draft the Buzzfeed list of Russian warcrimes, but to date they've abducted thousands of children, raped and murdered their way through dozens of villages etc etc, the whole thing 'is close'

# ¿ Jun 6, 2023 11:03

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

There's definitely footage of a Leopard 2 (non-tractor variants) in a staging area near Zaporizhzhia that have been hit by artillery, not sure about the progress of the other fronts, apparently 3 being developed atm, but the Western armour is being deployed

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 23:32

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Wait, I just woke up and it's over? Huh? I'm going back to bed.

# ¿ Jun 24, 2023 20:51

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

yeah man nothing bad has been done by people explicitly referring to certain people as 'kebabs', you just have brainworms or something

# ¿ Jul 9, 2023 00:02

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

A big flaming stink posted:

I don't have access past the paywall so forgive me if this is a misleading headline

Here you go

# ¿ Jul 9, 2023 18:59

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Another bad faith poster wanders in and everyone obliges their bad faith arguments. Claiming Ukraine "doesn't care" that their civilians might die from the results of weapons used trying to expel a hostile genocidal invader after dozens of mass graves, child abductions and whatever other horrors Russia has visited on Ukraine is one of the laziest pieces of 'analysis' I've seen. gently caress off.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Jul 11, 2023 05:59

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

ISW seem to support the idea of reserves being committed;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023

Key Points -
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.

The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains.

Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector.

Today�s actions around Robotyne are likely the start of any �main thrust� Ukrainian forces might be launching, if the US officials are correct, rather than the sum of such a thrust.

# ¿ Jul 27, 2023 05:59

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

adebisi lives posted:

Sorry I didn't mean to mischaracterize the weapon type known for blowing civilian limbs off years after they get littered across a farm.

Oh is this something that only the Ukrainians have done? I suppose all those thousands of mines the Russians used are totally guilt free, wonder what the war crime apologist tweeted about it.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Sep 4, 2023 02:22

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 10:08

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

MikeC posted:

Re: Left bank operations near Kherson

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur (Paywalled)

Here you go

# ¿ Dec 17, 2023 02:48

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