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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
New thread! Here's hoping Russia goes home before we need another.

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Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
I think Prigozhin just wants to be the first to declare victory in Bakhmut to dunk on his opponents in the military.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
I think it's extremely optimistic to assume anyone on the Russian side even considered the possibility of an accident during the mission. They just drew a line on the map that they felt gave them the best chance of hitting their intended target and let loose, who cares what's on the ground under the plane, that's not where the bomb is going!

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Libluini posted:

Russia actually tried this under Soviet-regime in the Polish-SU war and when they pushed beyond the borders of Poland to take Warsaw, their army quite literally disintegrated because the Red Army soldiers in that stage of the war had been recruited on the promise of defending the motherland, and invading and taking Poland wasn't that, so the desertion rate skyrocketed after it became clear there was no second miracle to save the Polish army and the war was basically over.

Either you are confused about the sequence of events or explaining yourself very poorly. What moment are you referring to? What second miracle?

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
Red, white, and blue have been "adopted" as Pan-Slavic colours during the 1848 Prague Slavic Congress. They made it onto the flags of the Slavic states formed after the Congress mostly for this reason.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Hryme posted:

Isn't it a reasonable move to relocate top leadership from an area that can develop into an active combat zone? I don't get this he fleeing so he is a coward stuff. Shows that the situation is very uncomfortable though.

Is it reasonable? Very much so! But it also says that you are allowing the possibility that Moscow becomes an active combat zone. This is the big message: you are not 100% sure you will stop Wagner dead in their tracks, they are, in fact, capable of reaching Moscow in an appreciable percentage of possible scenarios, according to your assessments. In other words, when people say this means everything is over, they're exaggerating, but it certainly means it's quite real.

(Setting aside the possibility that the plane carried someone other than Putin and that Putin himself remains in the city, of course.)

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
So, Putin has just hosed Prigozhin, right? Just made promises and then refused to deliver the moment the boot was off his neck? Wagner's still getting folded into MOD, Prigozhin gets "exiled" to Belarus where he can be kept on a short leash, Shoigu and Gerasimov stay?

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

How big is Wagner exactly?

Is Putin literally going to let a bunch of mercenaries who were about to invade the capital simply go home and act as if it never happened? I guess in American politics people get pardoned too but that's a weird way to do it!

Prigozhin said he had 25 thousand people. Estimates say it was around 10 thousand before the war, then augmented with 40 thousand new prison recruits, then it got ground down in Bakhmut.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Moon Slayer posted:

The Air Force designating their planes depending on which company made them is much better; if we did it the F-15 could be a "McDoug-15" or the F-35 is instead the "LockMan-35"

This is comically backwards. Who cares if the plane was made by Sukhoi or Mikoyan-Gurevich? What does that actually tell you? Nothing. A Mi-2 is a tiny little chopper, the Mi-24 is a giant-rear end Hind. A MiG-27 is a variable geometry ground attack plane, the Mig-29 is a twin-engine air superiority fighter. Meanwhile, an F-15 is a fighter. A UH-1 is a utility helicopter. An AH-64 is an attack helicopter. C-130? Cargo. EA-6B? Electronic warfare derived from an attack plane. Sure, the numbers are pretty much random, but the prefixes are always there to tell you what you're dealing with.

It's the other way with ground stuff, obviously. The fact that there's an M1 rifle, M1 carbine, M1 helmet, M1 MBT, and probably some more M1s, should be proof positive that the entire system is stupid and ought to be discarded. Why is an M4 a replacement for M-16? Why is M60 both a machine gun and a tank, both developed roughly around the same period? And why do the numbers go well into quadruple digits, but literal hundreds have been skipped?

Meanwhile, the Russians have it much simpler here. T is a tank, and those get the year of introduction at the end. BMP stands for Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty, which means "Infantry Fighting Vehicle," and unsurprisingly, all of them are IFVs. AK? Avtomat Kalashnikova. SVD? Snayperskaya Vintovka Dragunova. And so on, and so forth. It gets weird with artillery pieces, since those are frequently referred to primarily with their GRAU designation (e.g. 2K11), which is also logical, but kind of esoteric in that the first number designates the broad type of equipment (2 - artillery), the letter designates the specific branch (K - air defence), and the second number (11 - "Krug") identifies the specific system. Some of them also have army designations that sometimes are more prevalent, or actual names that may or may not fit a theme (Akatsiya and Gvozdika both being self-propelled guns named after flowers, Krug, Kub, Romb, and Tor all being SAM systems named after geometric shapes, and so on). But it's a lot messier than the general army designations used for most stuff (e.g. there are several numbers assigned to rocketry and it seems kind of random what gets assigned where, the Krug is 2K11, but Tor is 9K333; the MANPADS Igla is 9K38, but 9K37 is a Buk SAM; the Metis ATGM is 9K115, but Kornet ATGM is 9M133).

So yeah. That's my objectively correct opinion.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

BillsPhoenix posted:

I'm not trying to be obtuse if that helps? I got similar down vote feedback sometimes on r/worldnews.

I typo'd Russia instead of China.

Here's the NBC link: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610

If Russia is getting its rear end kicked in the military side, why would the US be pushing for peace?

I think economic, trade, or supply chain issues is the answer.

With military fronts seemingly being bogged down in Ukraine, I can't see Russia even having secret talks unless the topic includes land gain for Russia, because Putin would kill someone for making Russia look weak.

Russia's ties to China haven't strengthened. China is mealy-mouthed and wishy-washy on the subject and from what is being said - and to an extent shown - the side whose opinion they care about in this conflict is not Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter), but USA. Their economic links have changed to make Russia more dependent on China, although even that is not such a big shift in the grand scheme of things. I'm not well versed on India.

As has been noted above, the US is not pushing for peace. This was not performed at the behest of the American executive or legislative authorities and did not involve any sitting public officials on the US side. It appears Russia is treating this a lot more seriously, since Lavrov is the minister of foreign affairs. If you believe that pushing for peace is the sign of military failure, then Russians are appearing to push a lot harder.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Discendo Vox posted:

Bakhmut is not where I’d have expected (nor particularly desired) a breakthrough

It's the one part of the front that isn't a minefield.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
Mi-24s are also the best helicopters ever made

I will not debate this because there is no room for debate here

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

fatherboxx posted:

Is this actually Budanov or someone making up an account that day for a joke tweet



Regarding Wagner nukes: it is virtually 100% certain they would be unable to do anything serious even if they captured any nuclear weapons in the base. Like people have said, those things have layers and layers of security to them, and it's not like Wagner had any nuke specialists. If they were pushing for the base, which is a big if, they were looking for conventional materiel.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Discendo Vox posted:

1,2,3,4.

I declare a Thumb War.

You'll have your day at The Hague, you monster.

Any news from the counter-offensive? Seems to have gotten quiet in the past week or so.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Cpt_Obvious posted:

The soviets mourned the Jews as fellow countrymen while the Polish government helped build the ovens even though Hitler's lebensraum explicitly targeted Polish and Soviet citizens for slavery and extermination.

what in the gently caress are you smoking

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Neurolimal posted:

Cpt_Obvious is intentionally being aggro for the hell of it, and while enormous swathes of Polish society happily cooperated with the Nazis I don't believe Poland's government was particularly happy about being invaded & turned into a more literal satellite state, but I will say that the portrayal of Poland as an uwu smol bean that was unjustly preyed upon by two powers is extremely tedious.

This post is misleading. The claim that "enormous swathes of Polish society happily cooperated with the Nazis" is straight up false. While obviously there were people who did reprehensible things like selling out their own neighbours (Jews, people hiding Jews, resistance figures) for money, or even initiating their own pogroms under German occupation (including without any German encouragement or "encouragement"), and obviously the Polish nation as a whole cannot just disavow them and act like they don't count (as it is unfortunately wont to do), they did not represent "enormous swathes" of anything. Similar crimes were perpetrated elsewhere in Europe, including in places like France, where both the rewards of collaboration and punishments for resistance were smaller. Meanwhile, the Germans never formed a collaborationist government in Poland. Half of the land they captured was integrated directly into the Reich and the other half was put under military occupation, which did not involve any Polish officials or figureheads (in contrast with France, Norway, Slovakia, etc.). This is in no small part because there were no significant figures who favoured collaboration. Pétain or Quisling had some kind of recognition and some degree of influence in their respective nations before German invasion, but Poland produced no collaborationist of even remotely similar standing. Instead, it saw the flourishing of armed resistance forces of ~650,000 people at their peak and thousands more in passive resistance, little sabotage, and diversionary activities, all this where large-scale Allied support was logistically impracticable and the German occupation immensely brutal.

The phrasing "more literal satellite state" is unclear here, but I find it suspect within the general tone of the post. The invasion did turn Poland's government into a satellite dependent on the Western Allies, that much is true. But the tone of the posts suggests a reading - and correct me if I am wrong in this reading - that Poland was throughout its existence a satellite state of Germany and became more so after the invasion. Such a claim would also be untrue. Firstly because, again, there was no collaborationist government, just a military occupation authority. I do not believe that exhausts the definition of a satellite state (you are free to differ), and I certainly do not believe that this military authority represented either the will of the Polish people or some kind of continuation of the legal Polish government. Finally, Poland's foreign policy throughout the interwar period revolved largely around conflict with Germany, which Germany itself pursued and which the Polish side believed would eventually lead to war if not stopped. Germany started a trade war with Poland in 1925, lasting until 1934, and Poland's economic policy since its beginning was to disentangle its economy from the German (which was never completely accomplished, because it was a monumental task - remember that the most industrialised areas of Poland were part of Germany until 1918-1921, and finding new markets for Polish coal and steel, building the necessary infrastructure, and developing the requisite merchant navy and ports were no small feats for a very poor country like Poland). Poland opposed the Rapallo agreement, was explicitly not covered by the Locarno treaties, recommended to the Western Allies a military response to German provocations between 1936 and 1938, and, well, refused the German ultimatum that led to the outbreak of World War II. These are not the actions of a government aligned with Germany, much less a satellite state.

With regards to the Vilnius and Spisz/Orawa questions, to avoid getting into the weeds of Eastern European international relations in the interwar period - this is not the thread for that, after all - all I will say is that they are of no immediate consequence to the events of September 1939 and, frankly, bringing them up borders on whataboutism.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
I think either the word "actively" is an instinctive empty insert or refers to the fact that the military is actively pursuing and prioritising such cases and executions to instil discipline, rather than putting them on a backburner. "Find me deserters to hang!" rather than "We got a report of some refuseniks, let's look into it."

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Tuna-Fish posted:

What?

Carfentanil, usually sold on the streets as fentanyl, is a very real problem. It became the darling of smugglers when they started getting cheap supply out of China, because it's by weight about 4000 times more potent than heroin, meaning you can smuggle in a suitcase more doses than you can fit into a 20ft container full of heroin.

When they get it past the border, they can then cut it until it matches other available opiates. Except that criminals cutting drugs are generally not great at mixing quality, which is why tons and tons of people die of overdose.

You've cut out the key part. It's not just fentanyl that's a social contagion, it's the specific combination of US cops fainting and having "difficulty breathing" (panic attacks) when they notice anything resembling a white powder.

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Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend
Great use of colour there, Kiel Institute

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