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There instead of being a trend towards more globalization will be a trend towards more regional and /or ideologically aligned trade partners in supply chains I do not think outside of specific industries of consequence (eg. semiconductor and Li ion / equivalent battery) that what is already globalized will recede significantly, but that as a trend it’s growth will stop and that new trade growth will be regional. This scenario could be worse. Years ago during the Obama admin there was a NIE that outlined future scenarios. We are looking at a partial stalled engines. Things are going to continue to get more expensive. But also labor will continue to gain power. And transitions needed for climate change may hit crossover points sooner in this more expensive world. The other trend that isn’t being talked about yet is US oil consumption and production several of the consultancies model our consumption to be at 25% of current by 2050 due to transition to electric vehicles. That’s going to hugely affect international politics. It’s already affecting international politics.
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Apr 7, 2023 05:29
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| # ¿ May 12, 2024 07:07 |
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