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funmanguy posted:I've always been a big mavs fan but a combo of the 2006 finals and Cuban existing slowly drove me away. I got back into it last year just in time to see the mavs do work after the allstar break. Between the Kyrie trade and Cuban still existing, I am ready to stop caring about specific teams and just root for players. One of the reasons I watch basketball is to escape from the constant feeling of trying to band together with others to do your best in an environment of toxic and incompetent management. Thanks a lot, Mavs.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:21
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| # ? May 2, 2024 17:32 |
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Mostly whenever there is a high disparity between WS/48 and what like your perception of a player is, that's probably a good sign to like actually sit back and think about that player's role on the team and how key they are to what the team is doing even if it's not particularly flashy and doesn't get much attention. Sometimes it's obvious, Like Obviously Joker is p much the modern WS/48 King, and you watch that dude on the court and you can tell just how important he is to everything the Nuggets do. In other cases players could be just as important, but don't get the recognition, as it's more rote workmanlike poo poo. Or if it's just like their minutes are low, and with more minutes their usefulness falls off a cliff. Edit: But yeah VORP is probably a better Advanced stat to use to compare players across teams. As it continually shows that Jimmy Butler is one of the most underrated stars in the league lol. Dexo fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 15:24
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Hooray for meaningful basketball.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:39
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go, the cavs, and also go, the kings
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Apr 10, 2023 15:45
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Declan MacManus posted:go, the cavs, and also go, the kings Hell, same
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Apr 10, 2023 15:58
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I loving despise this frustrating insane bulls team and I will watch every minute of their pathetic loser playoff bid if it is one of 6 games, go bulls.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:01
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I want to see Pat Bev go wild again
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Apr 10, 2023 16:02
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Pat Bev giving up like 45 to Tre Young but somehow being vaguely in the vicinity as a desperate 35 footer rolls out of the rim and then celebrating like he just won a ring would be very funny IMO.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:08
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Anyone but the Celtics
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Apr 10, 2023 16:10
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Dexo posted:Mostly whenever there is a high disparity between WS/48 and what like your perception of a player is, that's probably a good sign to like actually sit back and think about that player's role on the team and how key they are to what the team is doing even if it's not particularly flashy and doesn't get much attention. I have some qualms with VORP but overall it's pretty good. Winshare tends to overrate very efficient but low production players, which I think people tend to UNDERRATE as guys who just efficiently use possessions and aren't flashy tend not to stick out. WS also probably overrates assists, which is aging poorly as having ball handling skills is getting more and more common so, while still important, it's probably not the standout that it was 20 years ago. Remember though, WS/48 is a rate stat and VORP isn't. So if you're looking at the two use Winshare instead of WS/48 and that knocks some of the low minute guys out.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:12
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Nodoze posted:Anyone but the Celtics this but the opposite
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Apr 10, 2023 16:12
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I want the bulls to lose but am predicting they will win, and then get smeared by the bucks in a gentleman’s sweep
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Apr 10, 2023 16:12
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No Celtics and no Warriors. But also yes Cavs.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:15
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i dont like relying on advanced stats that much. a team isnt actually an abstract collection of stats and i think in the nba it largely comes down to specific matchups. as in, theres probably a reason a lesser team like orlando beat the crap out of the celtics this year but the celtics beat the crap out of the bucks. thank you for reading this post which im 100% sure is new information to you
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Apr 10, 2023 16:19
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Bismack Billabongo posted:I want the bulls to lose mods???????
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Apr 10, 2023 16:20
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R.D. Mangles posted:mods??????? Feels like we got a heavy conflict of interest on this one gonna have to bring in an outside mod to adjudicate.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:23
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The bulls posters are wya better when the team is downtrodden. I’m not prepared for the bulls to actually win anything of consequence
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Apr 10, 2023 16:28
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Don't worry, there is no path to then winning anything for like 5 years at least.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:29
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what happens in year 6?
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Apr 10, 2023 16:31
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fart simpson posted:i dont like relying on advanced stats that much. a team isnt actually an abstract collection of stats and i think in the nba it largely comes down to specific matchups. as in, theres probably a reason a lesser team like orlando beat the crap out of the celtics this year but the celtics beat the crap out of the bucks. thank you for reading this post which im 100% sure is new information to you Advanced Stats are just Data points on their own they don't mean much, but look at like 4-5 of them and some of the other stats and you can get a pretty solid idea of a player's contribution to a team and winning.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:32
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fart simpson posted:what happens in year 6? they might finally get a draft pick and then drop in the lottery to seventh.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:33
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R.D. Mangles posted:Don't worry, there is no path to then winning anything for like 5 years at least. There needs to be an NBA2K+Hitman crossover video game where you get to make your cursed franchise better by dressing up as a chef to push Jerry Reinsdorf down an elevator shaft.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:34
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fart simpson posted:what happens in year 6? Backbreaking trade for a fully washed KAT
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Apr 10, 2023 16:34
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ChickenMedium posted:There needs to be an NBA2K+Hitman crossover video game where you get to make your cursed franchise better by dressing up as a chef to push Jerry Reinsdorf down an elevator shaft. Yeah I love the Bulls.... They fight and fight even if they know they're dead. That coaching is... Killer + 50 Target Eliminated + 25 Unnoticed Kill + 25 Body Disposal
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Apr 10, 2023 16:39
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Feel like Jeff Downtin is going to be X-factor for at least 3 possessions in the play-in game.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:45
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Dexo posted:Advanced Stats are just Data points on their own they don't mean much, but look at like 4-5 of them and some of the other stats and you can get a pretty solid idea of a player's contribution to a team and winning. They're not a bad way of predicting outcomes across a whole season, though I think playoffs come down to matchups way more than we think. It's amazing how fast we go from "Team X is going to roll" to "Everyone knows Team X was frauds". This season is fun as there really isn't anything that looks inevitable right off the bat. I do think there is probably a need for a revamp/redo of NBA advanced stats to accomodate how much has really changed in the game. In particular most stats have an underlying assumption of "position", some explicitly, some in just how the stats are weighted. The concept of position is really dying in the NBA though.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:45
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Dexo posted:Advanced Stats are just Data points on their own they don't mean much, but look at like 4-5 of them and some of the other stats and you can get a pretty solid idea of a player's contribution to a team and winning. most of the advanced stats are just multiplying points times rebounds or whatever which different formula weights, or they’re even derivatives of each other. im not sure how much more info you really get by looking at a bunch of them. i really mean that, im not sure because i don’t actually know the formulas for calculating most of them
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Apr 10, 2023 16:49
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fart simpson posted:lol this is why i dont care about advanced stats
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Apr 10, 2023 16:50
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fart simpson posted:most of the advanced stats are just multiplying points times rebounds or whatever which different formula weights, or they’re even derivatives of each other. im not sure how much more info you really get by looking at a bunch of them. WS and VORP (derived from WS/48 and BPM respectively) try to account to impact of whats happening on the court when the player gets on and off the court. So yeah, they are basically similar with different weightings. I used to strongly prefer WS to VORP but now I think they are pretty close and just weighting things a bit different. PER is accounting for production only, it doesn't care if you are winning or losing, +/-, etc. PER, despite the E standing for efficiency, tends to value production more than efficiency. RPM is another one, based on RAPM, which doesn't use a formula but ridge regression to look at +/- and then assign who is responsible for what. It can get wonky especially on lower minute guys but it's defensive stats are probably the best (though that's a really low bar that it only barely clears). They all mostly allign.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:05
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Spring Break My Heart posted:A big issue with WS/48 is that it goes nuts with centres. 10 of the top 15 WS/48 players are Centres and I can't imagine anyone actually has that high of an opinion on like 2023 Clint Capela clint capela is really good at what he does even among The Garbagemen but your point is well taken advanced statistics in general value rebounding without context (percentage of rebounds vs. rebounds/rebounding opportunities created by boxing out, or rebounds given up to allow someone like prime westbrook to start a fast break, or other things of that nature) and advanced stats favor highly efficient use of very few possessions over relatively efficient use of a large number of possessions these are my beefs with statistic, as we all know e: and to be clear they're not invalidating complaints, it's just that you shouldn't trust any stat as gospel, especially not an all-in-one stat
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Apr 10, 2023 17:12
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I have not seen and compared individual calculations done for individual current players, but my suspicion about the win shares getting weird (on top of them always just sort of guessing about defense) is the part of the calculation that gives players credit for the percentage of their team's offensive rebounds they pull down. In the 90s/early 00s offensive rebounds really were a strong clue about players that were secretly generating a lot of value for their teams, and an individual offensive rebound is still a very valuable event. But players miss a lot less these days, and in analyzing the trade-off that's historically happened between crashing the boards and getting back on defense, a lot of teams on a lot of plays have 0-1 players that are even trying to make this happen. Being the one that gets that assignment doesn't necessarily say a lot of your player quality, and I think it's exacerbated the big-man bias that's always kind of existed with the basketball win shares formulation. It's also just true right now that a lot of teams have their most efficient offensive plays go disproportionately through a big man who is seen as not especially skilled other than as a finisher. Adjusted shooting numbers also reflect the trend where the top 20 are a mix of the best players in the league and a lot of random big men that teams use to finish good plays. It's possible that in the set of impossible choices NBA defenses are currently having to make, regular season teams would be better off focusing a little less on the 3-point line and a little more on not getting yammed on.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:14
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Lockback posted:WS and VORP (derived from WS/48 and BPM respectively) try to account to impact of whats happening on the court when the player gets on and off the court. So yeah, they are basically similar with different weightings. I used to strongly prefer WS to VORP but now I think they are pretty close and just weighting things a bit different. i assume this means someone like jaylen brown's stats look worse than they "should" because he spends about half the game alternating floor time with tatum, so i bet a lot of his on/off court numbers are sort of just comparing how well he leads the bench unit vs how well tatum leads the bench unit
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Apr 10, 2023 17:18
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fart simpson posted:i assume this means someone like jaylen brown's stats look worse than they "should" because he spends about half the game alternating floor time with tatum, so i bet a lot of his on/off court numbers are sort of just comparing how well he leads the bench unit vs how well tatum leads the bench unit It gets balanced out by them being really good being on the floor together, but yeah, you can get hurt sharing the floor with other really good players. However, you also tend to get more efficient which gives you a boost even though that efficiency isn't entirely to your credit. It's complex. PER can be weird but I always like it along with WS. Like Clint Capela, All-NBA Winshare, "Very good starter" level PER. Looney: All-NBA, pushing MVP-level WS, "decent starter" PER. The other way works too. Anthony Edwards is a guy who Winshare hates (VORP likes him more). Winshare rates him as a rotation guy or maybe low-end starter. But his PER is as a "Decent Starter". Advanced stats will like him a lot more if he gets his TO down a bit, his Rebound/Assists up a bit and he cuts out his penchant for throwing up bad shots for empty possessions. But he's almost certainly a lot better than his WS rating.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:29
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Jaylen Brown has very high scoring usage while doing literally everything at about league average efficiency. I don't really know where there's a lot of value from that that advanced stats are missing. My assumption would be that if a really great scorer were playing disproportionately against bench players they'd have a pretty easy time scoring. He's a really good defensive player, and I think all-around good defensive player, but watching him in games as a creator has always looked just about as dicey to me as the stats would suggest. And his numbers have been about like this his whole career. People do seem very sure that he's the second best player in Boston and clearly separated from all of his other very good teammates, so presumably I'm missing something.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:30
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All around very good wings without real holes in their game are super super valuable in the NBA.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:33
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advanced stats is reddit karma for basketball players
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Apr 10, 2023 17:36
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here's an advanced stat: the dallas mavericks pooped their pants
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Apr 10, 2023 17:37
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Stagger_Lee posted:Jaylen Brown has very high scoring usage while doing literally everything at about league average efficiency. I don't really know where there's a lot of value from that that advanced stats are missing. what your missing is that there actually aren’t that many players who can do everything needed of the position he plays at league average efficiency with that high of a usage rate and who don’t have any real significant weaknesses he’s also mentally pretty strong and there’s been a ton of games the celtics have stayed in despite everyone looking a bit off, because he just kind of powers them through the rough patch. idk what stat captures that but it’s a skill not every player has sometimes you can’t get efficiency and you need a westbrick to just do something and try to get everything going again, imo fart simpson fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 17:46
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Stagger_Lee posted:Jaylen Brown has very high scoring usage while doing literally everything at about league average efficiency. I don't really know where there's a lot of value from that that advanced stats are missing. so there is value in one player being able to use a large number of possessions at league average efficiency, because somebody has to take those shots the presumption is that you cannot find two 18 mpg players to take 10 shots a game at 58.1% true shooting that will garner the same respect on defense, that can also switch between the 2 and the 3, etc. etc. etc. even if his creation doesn't seem as valuable or skilled, you're not losing anything by giving him shots and letting him create off the dribble which frees up other players because you have to check him
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Apr 10, 2023 17:51
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I will not stand for this Kevon Looney erasure. He plays 20 minutes a game but grabbed more offensive rebounds than anyone in the league this year. He sets great screens, and is one of the best big men at switching and sticking with guards on the perimeter and not falling for pump fakes. Most people don't know that he was Lebron-lite in high school, a 6'9" point forward with handles who dished 7 assists a game, before he went to UCLA and they broke his body into little pieces. He has salvaged an NBA career by totally remaking his game within his new physical limitations. More importantly, he is a beautiful human being, one of the least arrogant, most likeable players in the entire league. Even people who loathe the Warriors like Kevon Looney.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:52
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