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tadashi
Feb 20, 2006

Main Paineframe posted:

The big problem with this line of thinking is that you don't have a long history of specialized education or experience in ChatGPT prompting. There's plenty of fresh-out-of-college kids who have just as much training and experience in using ChatGPT as you do. When managers are looking for ChatGPT operators, they're not going to want existing mid-to-senior-level employees with all the skills and experience (and salary expectations) that ChatGPT is meant to trivialize. They're going to replace your whole team with an intern who spent their summer break tinkering with prompts for fun. For a while, they might keep one or two senior employees around to check the AI's output and advise the intern, but the end goal of all this is going to be to render your existing skills and experience totally obsolete. It seems like you get that, but the consequences run deeper than you seem to think.

ChatGPT3 has only been out for a few months, which means that few people have more than a few months' experience making prompts for it. This creates a level playing field - a high schooler who thought "ChatGPT is the future" and has been studying prompting since the day it came out will have just as much experience as a senior engineer who thought "ChatGPT is the future" and has been studying prompting since the day it came out. Except that the senior engineer also has twenty years of engineering experience and is used to high salaries, while the high schooler has no particular specialized skills besides prompt-writing and will be thrilled to be brought on as an intern for entry-level wages.

For a while, the existing employees' product knowledge and specialized skills/experience may allow a few of them to move into "ChatGPT operator" roles while the technology is still new, although employers will probably try to weasel a pay cut out of it. But in the long run, if ChatGPT makes your existing skills and experience completely unnecessary, taking a couple of ChatGPT courses isn't necessarily going to put you on a competitive playing field against an obedient fresh college grad with low salary expectations who took a ChatGPT course in college.

I feel like the cloud vs onsite infrastructure debate in IT is very relevant to what's coming in AI.

Some of the things that held back a lot of cloud migrations in IT were:
  • Traditional IT workers didn't understand how to deal with serverless environments since their entire careers were built on dealing with pushing buttons on a server
  • Old Guard IT supervisors tried to build a moat around onsite servers because cloud hosted services were "not secure" or "too risky" because someone else controlled your data
  • IT managers without a lot of time left before retirement want to play it safe and run out the clock with the skills they have rather than embrace next generation skills

So you can see how the "empire building" nature of careers built on skills that can be replaced by new technology ultimately hurt workers - because the opportunity to gain skills is counteracted by senior level workers who are actively fighting an inevitable embrace of emerging tech.

There are always an army of recent university/tech school graduates boasting the latest certifications for corporations to chew through, but they can also undercut the justification to migrate to emerging tech because inexperienced workers may not be ready to handle the inevitable (and frequent) set backs and failures that happen in technology because that's just the nature of the beast.

Experienced workers (especially at SMBs) with skills based on older tech have the experience to navigate corporate politics and, ultimately, will control what companies choose because companies are more likely to stick to what works than embrace change.

All this is to say that AI is the future, and people who are still early or-mid career in jobs threatened by AI would do best to keep tabs on what AI can do for them. This is the lesson I see in the contentious migration to cloud computing.

The first AI-enabled jobs will pay a lot better than the same jobs that come around later and most companies (especially SMBs) are a lot more likely to promote internally than taking risks on new employees to serve as lead or management roles.

TL;DR - cloud computing is finally eating up the last of the "old guard" IT engineers about 10-13 years after corporate America started embracing cloud computing. The same thing will happen in AI related jobs- the transition will start slow but will accelerate to the point where it's ingrained in everything and you'd do best understand how it can enhance your job if your career is at all threatened by it.

tadashi fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jun 2, 2023

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