|
Pants Donkey posted:Will Haley win a state? Stayed tuned. She's got a shot at Vermont. The state party by and large hates Trump, as does our governor.
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 20:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:11 |
|
|
Captain_Maclaine posted:She's got a shot at Vermont. The state party by and large hates Trump, as does our governor. Could be, even the ones that didn't switch parties are presumably still old (ancient) school Republicans compared to the rest of the country. They might see even vaguely evangelical Haley as being preferable to Trump. If it does happen, he'll just spin it like DC, though. Of course the lefty state would vote for Haley! It's not like he has anything to lose by alienating Vermont, which would never vote for him in the GE in the first place.
|
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 20:48
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Could be, even the ones that didn't switch parties are presumably still old (ancient) school Republicans compared to the rest of the country. They might see even vaguely evangelical Haley as being preferable to Trump. Yeah, a significant percentage of VT Republicans are pre-Gingrich holdouts (sometimes literally; we're an old state) and even a few remnants of the long-defunct Rockefeller wing. I agree that Trump will spin it if it happens and he remembers we exist.
|
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 21:03
|
|
|
Pants Donkey posted:Will Haley win a state? Stayed tuned. she could win vermont and virginia. but who knows
|
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 21:06
|
|
|
CNN thinks Utah might be a Haley state but it seems unlikely to me, Mormons aren't putting a woman in charge.
|
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 22:07
|
|
|
Relevant Tangent posted:CNN thinks Utah might be a Haley state but it seems unlikely to me, Mormons aren't putting a woman in charge. maybe but mormons also dont like trump for various reasons, will they still bend the knee to a trump lead elephant. sure, but apperently trumps just not liked there.
|
|
#
?
Mar 5, 2024 22:22
|
|
|
VA already called for VA, but Haley seems to be hanging in there for VT. Most polls close around 8 EST, so the fun is about to begin.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 01:54
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1765169549547053313 Unlikely that this exit poll number means anything, but if Dean Phillips got a third of the vote and 74% of his supporters said they might not vote for Biden in November it would be the only thing politics reporters talked about for weeks
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 02:37
|
|
|
What it means is mostly that tons of Democrats voted in the Republican primary. I think it's one of the states where you don't need to be registered with a specific party to vote in its primary, right? e: so calling them 'Haley supporters' is probably a little misleading
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 02:39
|
|
|
That's correct. Virginia has open primaries, meaning you can select which of the two you vote in freely (although you do have to pick one). I am a poll worker in Virginia and I know we had a lot more people choose to vote in the GOP primary this time around than I would ordinarily expect, some of whom directly expressed a desire to protest Trump. We also had a lot of Trump weirdos though, so who can say! Working elections is so fun in the age of Trump! 
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 02:49
|
|
|
Quorum posted:We also had a lot of Trump weirdos though, so who can say! Working elections is so fun in the age of Trump! I assume a non-zero amount of them brandished firearms
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 02:57
|
|
|
Quorum posted:That's correct. Virginia has open primaries, meaning you can select which of the two you vote in freely (although you do have to pick one). I am a poll worker in Virginia and I know we had a lot more people choose to vote in the GOP primary this time around than I would ordinarily expect, some of whom directly expressed a desire to protest Trump. We also had a lot of Trump weirdos though, so who can say! Working elections is so fun in the age of Trump! So even if Haley wins Virginia, he's just going to say he lost because Democrats voted for her, and he'd actually be right this time.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 03:08
|
|
|
Vermont is the only race you can call competitive, and with 70% of the vote in I don’t think Haley has managed to pull ahead once. Currently she’s down by 2-3%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 04:13
|
|
|
For what its worth Wasserman and the NYT have called VT for Haley.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 04:27
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:maybe but mormons also dont like trump for various reasons, will they still bend the knee to a trump lead elephant. sure, but apperently trumps just not liked there. They had their chance with Mormon candidate Evan McMullin on two different occasions and voted for Trump/Trumper Senator instead. Mitt Romney retired instead of facing reelection because his opposition to Trump pissed off too many of them. I grew up Mormon and hoped for better, but they've been disappointing to say the least.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 04:33
|
|
|
Mistaken Frisbee posted:They had their chance with Mormon candidate Evan McMullin on two different occasions and voted for Trump/Trumper Senator instead. Mitt Romney retired instead of facing reelection because his opposition to Trump pissed off too many of them. Romney's opposition to Trump began in 2016, and was elected in 2018 despite this. He's 77 years old and hated Washington, that's why he retired.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 06:00
|
|
|
Yeah, looks like Haley clinched VT, but lost all the others by fairly wide margins so far with just Utah and Alaska to go. Obviously no one expected Haley to win a meaningful number of states, but I don't really see what message there is to read in these tea leaves. I guess you could point out that even his best showings were only around 80% despite Haley's campaign being moribund, but so what? In "typical" primaries it isn't like that is super uncommon, and the reasoning for why that logic shouldn't hold is that Trump has previously held office so he "should" have something like incumbent advantage, I guess? But there hasn't been a candidate in the same situation as Trump since the modern primary was established, so that assumption is basically a gut feel thing. If Haley had won in any states that were even marginally in play for Rs this cycle I think there would be more to talk about, but winning Vermont and nothing else makes this kind of a dud narratively IMO. There's no particular evidence that never-Trump will be any more of a thing this year than it was in 2020, so if he loses it will probably be for the same reasons as it was then and/or that Republicans performed poorly in the years since then.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 06:09
|
|
|
Wrong thread
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 06:09
|
|
|
I don't think you can infer anything about the general election from Haley beating the polls, the main thing is if Dean Phillips were beating the polls in every state and his voters were saying they wouldn't necessarily support Biden it would be the only thing politics journalists ever talked about.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 08:01
|
|
|
But we do have something equivalent to that for the Democrats, namely all the 'uncommitted' votes, apparently up to 20% in Minnesota.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 14:31
|
|
|
Haley drops out, thread does not care. Sums up the GOP primary.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 14:54
|
|
|
Pretty much. Trump was always going to be the nominee unless something very big happened, and nothing big ever happened. Edit: Like, the GOP was moderately pro-Trump in 2016 (he really only had about 30-40% support in the race, the rest was momentum) but the four years that followed forced most of the non-commital support to make the decision to either leave or flip to unwavering support. He's been clearly the head of a smaller, more fanatical party since, and there was no indication that any other candidate was somehow going to change voters' minds about Trump being their personal Avatar of Grievances. skeleton warrior fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Mar 6, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 15:00
|
|
|
skeleton warrior posted:Pretty much. Trump was always going to be the nominee unless something very big happened, and nothing big ever happened. i think its funny because i think Haley would have a much easier time running against biden because she would probably siphon a bunch of conservative moderates who arnt a fans of biden but are super scared of trump.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 15:52
|
|
|
If you spent a single minute of your life paying attention to that sham of a primary I don’t know what to tell you. This was always going to be the result.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 16:14
|
|
|
The only time it was in question was around Nov 2022 when Trump was pissing the party off by teasing his campaign announcement right before election day, getting into fights with DeSantis for no reason, and then stating there would be another big announcement after his campaign announcement which turned out to be cringey NFTs. Had the primaries kicked off in 2023, things may have been more competitive. But once the legal troubles kicked into high gear, the wagons got circled and his nomination was party writ.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 16:35
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i think its funny because i think Haley would have a much easier time running against biden because she would probably siphon a bunch of conservative moderates who arnt a fans of biden but are super scared of trump. Yeah, Haley would've stood a very good chance of beating Biden in the general election. Too bad the Republican party threw that away.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 17:23
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:But we do have something equivalent to that for the Democrats, namely all the 'uncommitted' votes, apparently up to 20% in Minnesota. It’s just as meaningful. Those people aren’t voting for Trump who is eagerly talking about personally genociding Gaza if Joe Biden’s current level of Israel support is a problem, and Minnesota is pretty safely Democratic.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 17:35
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i think its funny because i think Haley would have a much easier time running against biden because she would probably siphon a bunch of conservative moderates who arnt a fans of biden but are super scared of trump. Haley would beat Biden in a slam dunk but her victory wouldn't give Republican voters what they truly crave. The Republicans think they can win and get whiskey so they aren't gonna vote for beer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 17:41
|
|
|
Kchama posted:It’s just as meaningful. Those people aren’t voting for Trump who is eagerly talking about personally genociding Gaza if Joe Biden’s current level of Israel support is a problem, and Minnesota is pretty safely Democratic. I'm not saying he WILL lose Minnesota but people do not actively need to switch to the other side to effect results, they can also just not vote when they otherwise would have
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 18:00
|
|
|
reignonyourparade posted:I'm not saying he WILL lose Minnesota but people do not actively need to switch to the other side to effect results, they can also just not vote when they otherwise would have If Biden still wins Minnesota, then the results are not meaningfully affected.
|
|
#
?
Mar 6, 2024 18:03
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Haley would beat Biden in a slam dunk but her victory wouldn't give Republican voters what they truly crave. The Republicans think they can win and get whiskey so they aren't gonna vote for beer. I don't agree with that. Never underestimate the misogyny of the American public.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 18:57
|
|
|
If Haley had been the nominee I am positive Biden would've stepped down and handed the baton to someone else at the convention.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 19:33
|
|
|
whydirt posted:I don't agree with that. Never underestimate the misogyny of the American public. I don't see it. The people who might refuse to vote for her because she's a woman would probably be more than canceled out by the people wanting to bring about the 'historic first' of a female president, the same way that Obama was comfortably elected in 2008. You can bring up Hillary Clinton as a counterpoint, but her problem was more that she was broadly disliked and seen as insincere. It doesn't really matter either way, because that traditional neocon/evangelical type of Republican doesn't stand a chance of becoming the nominee as long as Trumpism is a thing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 19:39
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:I don't see it. The people who might refuse to vote for her because she's a woman would probably be more than canceled out by the people wanting to bring about the 'historic first' of a female president, the same way that Obama was comfortably elected in 2008. You can bring up Hillary Clinton as a counterpoint, but her problem was more that she was broadly disliked and seen as insincere. as someone who believes haley would have a much better shot. i do think alot of that would depend on the chuds and also the moderates. like my dad would vote for haley over biden BUT my chud relatives would sit out. i guess its more do the losses of maga types off set some moderate conservatives coming home.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 19:43
|
|
|
Hmm. I think it would mostly depend on how the primaries had played out exactly. Trump is not a gracious loser, so if he felt like the nomination was stolen from him and he refused to endorse her, even told his followers not to vote for the globalist, that could cost her the election in that scenario. If he did begrudgingly support her or just refrained from openly attacking her, yes, she would stand a better chance than Trump at defeating Biden. I also believe that.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 19:50
|
|
|
Bodyholes posted:If Haley had been the nominee I am positive Biden would've stepped down and handed the baton to someone else at the convention. I super doubt it. It would guarantee Democratic defeat.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 22:24
|
|
|
Kchama posted:I super doubt it. It would guarantee Democratic defeat. this. biden still has a good shot of winning against haley. Harris is a charisma vacum.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 22:27
|
|
|
Kchama posted:I super doubt it. It would guarantee Democratic defeat. There's this weird "Biden's going to step down and be replaced " thing going around for some reason. On the list of things that will never happen that will never happen the second most, right after Donald Trump suspends his campaign to enter a monastery.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 22:48
|
|
|
yeah I'm plotting for convention delegates again but it's not in case Biden steps down, it's in case Biden dies
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 22:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:11 |
|
|
If my quick research is correct, the last incumbent president who was eligible to run for re-election and declined was Coolidge, who had almost a term and a half nearly a century ago. (e: Not Ford, as I initially said - he ran and lost.) It's a very well entrenched standard that a first-term president will run and be nominated again. I think that in the current day, absent some kind of exceptional and obvious justification, it would be seen as a strong admission of weakness and/or lack of confidence if an incumbent president declined to run again. If I had to guess, other highly-placed Democratic politicians probably do not want Biden to step back any more than Biden wants himself to step back because the uncertainty of what would come next for the whole ticket is scarier than Biden's known weaknesses. e2: Aw drat, I forgot about Johnson. I think he was clearly just completely defeated by Vietnam, underlined by the fact that he died barely a full presidential term after leaving office. Eletriarnation fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Mar 7, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2024 23:43
|
|
