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Trazz
Jun 11, 2008
Can someone explain how Nikki Haley would be a stronger candidate than Trump? Because I don't see it. I don't think she beats Biden when she loses millions of votes and doesn't gain any.

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blossommirage
Nov 7, 2012

Trazz posted:

Can someone explain how Nikki Haley would be a stronger candidate than Trump? Because I don't see it. I don't think she beats Biden when she loses millions of votes and doesn't gain any.

I honestly believe that people that argue this forget that she's a woman. Like not that they think she's not one, but it just doesn't occur to them that the party that wants to ban abortion while claiming a right to life might actually just really really hate women.

This Is the Zodiac
Feb 4, 2003

They're imagining a suburban wine mom demographic who wouldn't (openly) support Trump, but are willing to vote for a woman who would do more or less the same things.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Eletriarnation posted:

If my quick research is correct, the last incumbent president who was eligible to run for re-election and declined was Coolidge, who had almost a term and a half nearly a century ago. (e: Not Ford, as I initially said - he ran and lost.) It's a very well entrenched standard that a first-term president will run and be nominated again.

I think that in the current day, absent some kind of exceptional and obvious justification, it would be seen as a strong admission of weakness and/or lack of confidence if an incumbent president declined to run again. If I had to guess, other highly-placed Democratic politicians probably do not want Biden to step back any more than Biden wants himself to step back because the uncertainty of what would come next for the whole ticket is scarier than Biden's known weaknesses.

e2: Aw drat, I forgot about Johnson. I think he was clearly just completely defeated by Vietnam, underlined by the fact that he died barely a full presidential term after leaving office.

Johnson was also from a different, pre Fox News Rush LImbaugh era where partisan affiliations in American politics was more fluid. Now massive failures like Johnson’s involvement in Vietnam or Trump’s management of Covid or raising an insurrection mob will only move the needle small amounts and not cause a guaranteed dumpstering in the next election.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Trazz posted:

Can someone explain how Nikki Haley would be a stronger candidate than Trump? Because I don't see it. I don't think she beats Biden when she loses millions of votes and doesn't gain any.

I think she'd win mainly on the basis of not being super old.

This Is the Zodiac posted:

They're imagining a suburban wine mom demographic who wouldn't (openly) support Trump, but are willing to vote for a woman who would do more or less the same things.

I actually know people irl who would vote for Biden over Trump, but would vote for Haley over Biden.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



People say Haley is a stronger candidate than Trump because there are tons of polls out there literally showing that she does much better against Biden in a head-to-head. That's it. That's the reason. Example:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4444133-haley-holds-13-point-lead-over-biden-in-new-head-to-head-poll/

You can say that the polls are wrong, but even then there's just no evidence whatsoever for this claim that significant numbers of people would refuse to vote for her because she's a woman.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

The idea seems like it is stated from time to time that Americans in general, not just GOP, would not elect a woman. Clinton pretty much disproved that. She won the popular vote and only lost the EC by small margins. Americans will vote for a woman president, it just has to be a different, better candidate than her. Or it could even have been her against a different opponent.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

blossommirage posted:

I honestly believe that people that argue this forget that she's a woman. Like not that they think she's not one, but it just doesn't occur to them that the party that wants to ban abortion while claiming a right to life might actually just really really hate women.

Fair point but right wingers are generally fine voting for minority candidates these days so long as they're "one of the good ones" (see: Tim Scott; also Nikki Haley). Haley was quite popular in SC and defeated all right wing challengers handily. Being brown was a bigger hurdle for her than being a woman, there were several incidents of SC politicians referring to her with ethnic slurs.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007
Haley is basically the Generic Republican candidate right now, which is why she's doing better than Trump vs Biden.

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008
I don't think Nikki Haley's problem is that she's a woman
Her problem is that she's Not Donald Trump
She simply does not have the juice to get 75 million Americans to vote for her, let alone debase themselves into a cult-like following for her

Like, do you really see family-shattering arguments occurring because of Nikki Haley?

Jethro
Jun 1, 2000

I was raised on the dairy, Bitch!

Trazz posted:

Can someone explain how Nikki Haley would be a stronger candidate than Trump? Because I don't see it. I don't think she beats Biden when she loses millions of votes and doesn't gain any.
I also don't think she is, but there are at least some nominal Republicans who haaaaaaate Trump that would come back to the fold if anyone else was the Republican nominee. And she gives cover for the party misogyny. But ultimately I don't think that makes up for the fact that she would have no base.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Trazz posted:

I don't think Nikki Haley's problem is that she's a woman
Her problem is that she's Not Donald Trump
She simply does not have the juice to get 75 million Americans to vote for her, let alone debase themselves into a cult-like following for her

Like, do you really see family-shattering arguments occurring because of Nikki Haley?

You don't need to be a member of someone's cult to vote for them. Biden does not have 80 million cult followers. The entire appeal of Haley is that she's Not Donald Trump, and that you're unlikely to get into family-shattering arguments because of her. Even though she's a standard lovely Republican from a left-wing perspective, she represents the return to relative normalcy and decorum that many in the center are craving.

That's what these polls are showing. She does better against Biden than Trump does. If you think the polls are wrong, explain why. The only problem with them that I see is that they don't account for a potential scenario in which Trump urges his MAGA followers not to vote for the globalist Haley, or even launches his own campaign as an independent. Then she would be in trouble, yes.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Trazz posted:

Can someone explain how Nikki Haley would be a stronger candidate than Trump? Because I don't see it. I don't think she beats Biden when she loses millions of votes and doesn't gain any.

all the "moderates" and suburbanites that usually hammer Republican that are turned off by Trump

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008

Phlegmish posted:

You don't need to be a member of someone's cult to vote for them. Biden does not have 80 million cult followers. The entire appeal of Haley is that she's Not Donald Trump, and that you're unlikely to get into family-shattering arguments because of her. Even though she's a standard lovely Republican from a left-wing perspective, she represents the return to relative normalcy and decorum that many in the center are craving.

That's what these polls are showing. She does better against Biden than Trump does. If you think the polls are wrong, explain why. The only problem with them that I see is that they don't account for a potential scenario in which Trump urges his MAGA followers not to vote for the globalist Haley, or even launches his own campaign as an independent. Then she would be in trouble, yes.

The polls are wrong because Democrats have been consistently over-performing them and Republicans are consistently underperforming them.
Nikki Haley wouldn't even crack 70 million votes. The polls are literally just assuming that Haley has the same baseline of votes as Trump has.
Donald Trump could run a write-in campaign from jail and he'd still pull more votes than Haley. The Nevada primary proved this.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

all the "moderates" and suburbanites that usually hammer Republican that are turned off by Trump

I think the gop in general has lost the suburbs longer than trump for the time being because the suburbs tend to be realitivly socially liberal. Soccer mom Sarah isn’t some boomer conservative any more. She knows people who are lgbtq and minorities or maybe is one herself.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

DaveWoo posted:

Yeah, Haley would've stood a very good chance of beating Biden in the general election. Too bad the Republican party threw that away.

I think Trump stands a good chance of beating Biden

Trazz posted:

I don't think Nikki Haley's problem is that she's a woman
Her problem is that she's Not Donald Trump
She simply does not have the juice to get 75 million Americans to vote for her, let alone debase themselves into a cult-like following for her

Like, do you really see family-shattering arguments occurring because of Nikki Haley?

100% this. Trump, at this stage, simply IS the GOP base and his rabid cult like following makes him unbeatable in a primary.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Dapper_Swindler posted:

this. biden still has a good shot of winning against haley. Harris is a charisma vacum.
Would Biden spittin fires against everyone in his State of the Union tonight provide sufficient firepower?

MixMasterMalaria
Jul 26, 2007
edit: wrong thread.

MixMasterMalaria fucked around with this message at 03:53 on Mar 8, 2024

Aztec Galactus
Sep 12, 2002

Nikki haley does well with the type of voters that Biden wants to court

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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Grouchio posted:

Would Biden spittin fires against everyone in his State of the Union tonight provide sufficient firepower?

probably but i think if trump was gone, the GOP would have backed those various bills way earlier and he probably be calmer. again its all hypothetical.

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