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smackfu posted:Ha, 7000 people bothered to vote in the Nevada Democratic primary but picked “None of these candidates”. Marianne Williamson destroyed.
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Feb 9, 2024 05:13
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Trump projected to win South Carolina primary: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-68355787 60 to 40. I guess it was such a foregone conclusion that no one bothered to post in this thread lol
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Feb 25, 2024 02:24
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I heard from someone he was expected to win by 30, so good on Haley I guess
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Feb 25, 2024 02:29
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StumblyWumbly posted:I heard from someone he was expected to win by 30, so good on Haley I guess I've been drowning in Haley stuff here in Asheville. She had to have blown out the war chest to try to win her home state.
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Feb 25, 2024 02:36
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Yeah, 40% would be respectable except that it's in her home state. She's not giving up, though. Definitely getting name recognition, I'll give her that much
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Feb 25, 2024 02:52
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StumblyWumbly posted:I heard from someone he was expected to win by 30, so good on Haley I guess
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Feb 25, 2024 03:42
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Budzilla posted:I don't think that is nowhere near good enough, it being her homestate. At this stage it looks like she is staying in the race so that if anything happens to Trump and he has to quit she will become the nominee by default. Wasn’t this basically the strategy of everyone in the primary outside of Christie and Hutch? Not a single one of them except those two said anything against Trump or gave any plausible reason why a GOP voter should pick them instead of Trump until way too late.
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Feb 25, 2024 03:49
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Zwabu posted:Wasn’t this basically the strategy of everyone in the primary outside of Christie and Hutch? Not a single one of them except those two said anything against Trump or gave any plausible reason why a GOP voter should pick them instead of Trump until way too late. Both parties seem to be taking the same strategy with respect to their respective nominees. With Genocide Joe, Kamala is waiting in the background. With Trump, we've got Nimrata waiting in the wings. 
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Feb 25, 2024 03:56
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i loled at this: A memo sent out this week by top Trump advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita called Haley a “wailing loser hell-bent on an alternative reality and refusing to come to grips with her imminent political mortality.”
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Feb 25, 2024 04:03
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I still find it near impossible to believe that the GOP would run an ancient unstable loser whose closets have been flying open and skeletons are falling out. As he, broke and busted, saps whatever money billionaire donors can hold their nose to donate. It just doesn't add up. I mean, the GOP definitely just noticed something in their internal polling that spooked them, on ivf. It wasn't well meaning sympathy for the young couple pursuing medical help with fertility that motivated the quick roll back. They saw something that scared the poo poo out of them. And we just found out the the "impeach Biden" poo poo was a actual Russian op.
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Feb 25, 2024 05:30
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StumblyWumbly posted:I heard from someone he was expected to win by 30, so good on Haley I guess Trump gets 51% of the vote 54% and 60% against sacks of literal manure but escaped any criticism of doing kind of bad given his alleged mystique.
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Feb 25, 2024 05:30
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Uglycat posted:I still find it near impossible to believe that the GOP would run There is no GOP to make such a choice. There's just victims of trumps con job, which makes sense because Trump is a better con artist than the people who previously ran the GOP.
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Feb 25, 2024 05:54
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Uglycat posted:I still find it near impossible to believe that the GOP would run an ancient unstable loser whose closets have been flying open and skeletons are falling out. A lot of the GOP rank-and-file is caught in the position where they've wrapped their own egos in Trump. They wrapped themselves up in hate for the people who oppose Trump - in part because Trump and the GOP media machine was selling that hate and branding it as good and righteous to hate liberals/women/blacks/queer people/immigrants/foreigners/etc. - and to step back and say "yes, I think Trump is bad for the party" meant agreeing with and making happy those very people they hated. So to keep from making people they hate happy, they twist themselves into excuses or cognitive dissonance or just drop pretenses of following any logic whatsoever because what's most important is the hate and being allowed to hate and to do all of the transference and disassociation that hate allows them to do. But then, every time they twist themselves into a counterfactual, they inherently up the stakes. Now the next time Trump fucks up it's not just "I think Trump is bad" it's "I think Trump is bad and also I was clearly wrong before when I said Trump was right" and now the potential ego injury is even bigger. And so the need for defense is bigger, which means doubling down and screaming louder that Trump is not just right, he's the best; and next time he's the best president we've ever had, and next time he's Christ-like, and so on. And so nothing: no skeletons, no speech where Trump makes it clear he has dementia, no policy position that threatens democracy, no massive fraud or indictments or jail time or anything is going to get his base to drop him, because to drop him they'd have to admit that they're wrong, and that's an injury to their narcissistic egos. And the number of people who are this way are just enough that the GOP leadership can't win primaries if they piss them off. And every GOP leader remembers very well Eric Cantor getting destroyed in a primary in 2014 where no amount of money, DC press, or being treated as the "future of the party" by the business wing was enough to save him from a vacuous nobody whose political philosophy was "we should burn it all down and stop collecting taxes". So, yeah, they're going to let Trump run, because standing against Trump is absolutely suicide for their careers, and if Trump runs and loses, it might only be bad for their careers.
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Feb 25, 2024 07:08
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:There is no GOP to make such a choice. There's just victims of trumps con job, which makes sense because Trump is a better con artist than the people who previously ran the GOP. yeah that is consistently the sort of take I disagree with: this isn't the UK (whose parties are still somewhat swingable) and this isn't smoky back room days, there's not a shadowy conspiracy going "you know who need in 2020/2024? Donald Trump" Donald Trump in particular is the victory of populism and the base running the party, and it couldn't be more fitting
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Feb 25, 2024 07:17
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I understand that 40% is not a good outcome for Haley and couldn’t care less about that, but it was my understanding that Haley getting 40%+ was a sign that Trump is still really weak with moderates and “good” news for Democrats in the general?
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Feb 25, 2024 07:41
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dpkg chopra posted:I understand that 40% is not a good outcome for Haley and couldn’t care less about that, but it was my understanding that Haley getting 40%+ was a sign that Trump is still really weak with moderates and “good” news for Democrats in the general? Unfortunately, Haley only got 39.5%.
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Feb 25, 2024 08:09
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FizFashizzle posted:I've been drowning in Haley stuff here in Asheville. She had to have blown out the war chest to try to win her home state. The idea of home states has been increasingly meaningless for years. The nationalization of everything has only been accelerating since Gore couldn't carry his home state in 2000. This is especially true for someone who last held a state office just as we all were hurled into the darkest timeline. We're over 7 years away from the last time that Nikki Haley was even a South Carolina politician. There's only a very small handful of politicians who have shown any sort of ability to buck the national trends of their state in the last decade or so, and Nikki Haley was never even within sight of them. She's still not winning poo poo, and it's probably going to be 60/40 everywhere until team Koch tells her to pack it in. Can't wait to laugh when she takes DeSantis's spot in 2028 as the presumed front runner, only for ol' Donny Trump to run again.
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Feb 25, 2024 08:31
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B B posted:Both parties seem to be taking the same strategy with respect to their respective nominees. With Genocide Joe, Kamala is waiting in the background. With Trump, we've got Nimrata waiting in the wings. Kamala is the VP that is literally her job. Like, it is her literal Constitutional duty. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Feb 25, 2024 |
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Feb 25, 2024 09:06
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Kchama posted:Kamala is the VP that is literally her job. Of course it is. With that said, I think those constitutional provisions were made for the case where the president accidentally or unexpectedly becomes incapacitated. I doubt that the framers wrote that part of the constitution for the case where one of the parties knowingly runs a candidate who is experiencing obvious cognitive decline and has a pretty high statistical chance of dying in his sleep.
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Feb 25, 2024 16:28
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B B posted:Of course it is. With that said, I think those constitutional provisions were made for the case where the president accidentally or unexpectedly becomes incapacitated. I doubt that the framers wrote that part of the constitution for the case where one of the parties knowingly runs a candidate who is experiencing obvious cognitive decline and has a pretty high statistical chance of dying in his sleep. The framers didn't write the vp provisions with the idea of parties in mind at all, the vp was just whoever was the runner up in the electoral college vote. There was no concept of a presidential party ticket.
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Feb 25, 2024 16:35
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The Vice President was a bad and poorly constructed office and within the lifetime of the Founders was salvaged into being a deputy/backup president. Outside a handful of modern VPs, it's basically been where important people go to be forgotten.
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Feb 25, 2024 16:42
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It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Haley can pull in states that are not South Carolina. If she can stay at 20-25 even when Trump is clearly the nominee I would guess that is a real bad sign for him and would indicate there is a significant chunk that will not turn out for him in the general election.
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Feb 25, 2024 16:48
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Morrow posted:The Vice President was a bad and poorly constructed office and within the lifetime of the Founders was salvaged into being a deputy/backup president. Outside a handful of modern VPs, it's basically been where important people go to be forgotten. John Nance Gardner, one of FDR's VPs, famously described the position as "Not worth a bucket of warm piss."
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Feb 25, 2024 17:31
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Uglycat posted:I mean, the GOP definitely just noticed something in their internal polling that spooked them, on ivf. It wasn't well meaning sympathy for the young couple pursuing medical help with fertility that motivated the quick roll back. They saw something that scared the poo poo out of them. What they saw is that no one except the absolute most batshit insane religious fundamentalists is opposed to fertility treatment, which they already knew. Since Trump himself has never given a poo poo about traditional evangelical issues anyway, it's an easy way for him to project himself as the reasonable one for once. Same reason why these abortion referendums keep failing in deep red states - the Republican Party has shifted from focusing on ethical/religious issues to being more in line with the European (far) right, where the focus is on things like identity and immigration instead. e: I do agree with the rest of your post, Trump increasingly has the stink of a loser on him, even though he tapped into primal emotions to win his first presidency, he's just alienating/pissing off too many people even on the right to be viable. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Feb 25, 2024 |
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Feb 25, 2024 17:31
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B B posted:Of course it is. With that said, I think those constitutional provisions were made for the case where the president accidentally or unexpectedly becomes incapacitated. I doubt that the framers wrote that part of the constitution for the case where one of the parties knowingly runs a candidate who is experiencing obvious cognitive decline and has a pretty high statistical chance of dying in his sleep. This argument is not nearly as persuasive as you think it is. The Founders didn't write a lot of things into the constitution because they weren't perfectly foresighted. Especially when you consider that they immediately had to amend it to fill in a lot of stuff they hadn't thought of when they initially wrote the Constitution. As mentioned, one of those things were 'parties' to begin with. Hell our entire election system came from the 12th amendment as well as the vice president's current status in general. So maybe they didn't foresee it when they wrote the constitution, but they deliberately added it in on purpose. The vice president's job is be there in case something happens to the president. Old age was old age even in the early 1800s, and it's not like the Founding Fathers would be blind to the idea that a disease could slowly but surely strike down the president and necessitate their replacement with the Vice President who they wrote in as... being there pretty much for that moment.
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Feb 25, 2024 17:34
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B B posted:Of course it is. With that said, I think those constitutional provisions were made for the case where the president accidentally or unexpectedly becomes incapacitated. I doubt that the framers wrote that part of the constitution for the case where one of the parties knowingly runs a candidate who is experiencing obvious cognitive decline and has a pretty high statistical chance of dying in his sleep. There's also the 25th Amendment and the various succession laws. What exactly is the point you are trying to make again? I am very confused.
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Feb 25, 2024 17:57
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Zwabu posted:It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Haley can pull in states that are not South Carolina. If she can stay at 20-25 even when Trump is clearly the nominee I would guess that is a real bad sign for him and would indicate there is a significant chunk that will not turn out for him in the general election. I hope you're right but I don't think this is the case. He gained voters in 2020 despite everyone knowing full well what and who he is.
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Feb 25, 2024 18:17
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Uglycat posted:I still find it near impossible to believe that the GOP would run an ancient unstable loser whose closets have been flying open and skeletons are falling out. You're making the mistake of thinking that the GOP is still a political party pursuing its own self interest. It's not. The GOP is now a personality cult blindly following Dear Leader as even those who recognize what's happened are too scared of the zealots to break ranks.
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Feb 25, 2024 19:09
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:I hope you're right but I don't think this is the case. He gained voters in 2020 despite everyone knowing full well what and who he is. My point is that I am hoping the fact he is pulling 60 percent in a primary instead of 80-90 is evidence of him having lost some voters instead of gaining them. Obviously most of Haley’s 20-40 percent will still vote for him, but it will not take many of them failing to turn out to lose him swing states.
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Feb 25, 2024 19:20
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Acebuckeye13 posted:John Nance Gardner, one of FDR's VPs, famously described the position as "Not worth a bucket of warm piss." It is kind of ironic that the only people who can get the gig of being paid 6 figures a year to quietly twiddle your thumbs in obscurity are exactly the people for whom that would be torture. FLIPADELPHIA posted:I hope you're right but I don't think this is the case. He gained voters in 2020 despite everyone knowing full well what and who he is. It's hard to tell how much of the increase was people converted to the cult and how much of it was people excitedly waiting to join the cult once it proved it had legs. A decent factor in 2016 was nobody thinking Donny Trump could pull it off, which absolutely kept otherwise excited to be openly racist shitheads at home waiting to see if it was safe to wear the hood as a hat instead of a mask.
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Feb 26, 2024 00:01
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Haley is absolutely right to stay in the race. Trump, as per usual, argues the opposite of what is visibly true.
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Feb 26, 2024 00:31
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dpkg chopra posted:I understand that 40% is not a good outcome for Haley and couldn’t care less about that, but it was my understanding that Haley getting 40%+ was a sign that Trump is still really weak with moderates and “good” news for Democrats in the general? it's Haley's home state so you would expect it to be way higher than national avg If Haley ends up getting 40% -nationally- that would be a pretty big deal (spoilers: she's not), but getting it in her home state is really kinda 
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Feb 26, 2024 04:40
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Home States aren't really a thing in 2024. Especially if you aren't even a sitting official.
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Feb 26, 2024 04:59
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Gyges posted:Home States aren't really a thing in 2024. Especially if you aren't even a sitting official. we'll have to see: if she gets 40% nationally that's pretty bad for Trump considering he's effectively running as the imcumbent to put things in perspective the last 3 times a serious primary challenge against an imcumbent happened were 1976 (Reagan got 45% vs Ford), 1980 (Ted Kennedy got 37% vs Carter) and 1992 (Buchanan got 25% or so vs Bush sr). Haley getting ~40% nationally would put it at a Reagan level challenge.
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Feb 26, 2024 05:25
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Typo posted:to put things in perspective the last 3 times a serious primary challenge against an imcumbent happened were 1976 (Reagan got 45% vs Ford), 1980 (Ted Kennedy got 37% vs Carter) and 1992 (Buchanan got 25% or so vs Bush sr). Haley getting ~40% nationally would put it at a Reagan level challenge. Yes But the GOP is no longer a political party with Platforms. It is a death cult lead by a high priest who will end his life in jail, the noose or as a god emperor over the ruins of a civil war racked nation. Trump has no other end game (short of him having an entirely timely death).
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Feb 26, 2024 10:08
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Typo posted:it's Haley's home state so you would expect it to be way higher than national avg Seems to be running 7% behind his polls https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1761578567345815818?s=20
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Feb 26, 2024 10:17
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the koch family had pulled their financing apparatus and funding networks away from trump, warning conservatives that the continued cultish obedience to trump was going to do unimaginable damage to them in the long run, and then after loving around trying to figure out how to be an anti-trump conservative movement, went in for haley but now they just withdrew support and funding of haley so there ya go
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Feb 26, 2024 10:20
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Unless Haley can pick up another billionaire sugar daddy for her campaign she's out then. It will be interesting to see if the Koch crew swallows their pride and funds all the Republicans not named Trump, or if they decide their best bet for a future libertopia is to sit it out and let them burn this cycle.
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Feb 26, 2024 10:38
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Gyges posted:Unless Haley can pick up another billionaire sugar daddy for her campaign she's out then. It will be interesting to see if the Koch crew swallows their pride and funds all the Republicans not named Trump, or if they decide their best bet for a future libertopia is to sit it out and let them burn this cycle. they big mad and they petty so its a real toss up the RNC and all the state conservative orgs are just seriously hurting in general from nobody wanting to empty their wallets into their coffers anymore in general and outright losing the expected support and presence of the koch donor network was ... quite a thing
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Feb 26, 2024 10:59
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Heh. “Given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory.”
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Feb 26, 2024 14:48
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