2024 GOP Primary: Ron DeSantis Humiliation Station

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2024 GOP Primary: Ron DeSantis Humiliation Station

gurragadon: Jul 28, 2006

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

As long as Trump is still in the race, running your campaign message as "Trump is great, Trump won the election in 2016 and 2020, he is being railroaded, even though I definitely think he won in 2016 and 2020 I also think he might be unelectable and you should vote for me because I am almost as great as Trump" is going to be a losing strategy.

DeSantis also doesn't really have a compelling reason to be the race or have a distinctive platform. If you asked someone to sum up DeSantis' campaign message in less than 5 words, could anyone do it? Could you get 80 out of 100 people to give you the same answer when you asked them?

Say what you will about them personally or how they ran their campaigns, but Trump, Obama, Bernie Sanders, George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and John McCain all had very clear messages and narratives around why they were running to be President.

DeSantis is just "I'm almost as good as Trump and people might not remember me in 6 years, so I gotta do this now."

A noun, a verb, and woke. Thats 6 words but close enough.

Edit: He's running a hard right campaign with his "war on woke" taking on cultural issues and positioning himself to the right of Trump. He's also positioning or trying to position himself with the nazi right wingers with his weird internet videos. I feel like his campaign is basically conservative culture personified.

gurragadon fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Jul 28, 2023

# ¿ Jul 28, 2023 15:33

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 17:32

gurragadon: Jul 28, 2006

Yeah, it just doesn't seem like any kind of contest. Cable news keeps harping on how Desantis did "the full Grassley" and the other candidates besides Trump are all over Iowa. It doesn't seem to matter though, and Iowa seems to not care as much about 'retail politics.' But that poll from the Des Moines Register came out last night and it's looking like it's going to be Trump. Can't link the actual poll because I can't find a non paywalled version of it.

https://cnnpolitics.com/2024/01/13/politics/trump-holds-wide-lead-over-gop-field-ahead-of-iowa-caucuses-poll-finds/index.html

CNN posted:

Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.

Trump still has a commanding lead, but it looks like DeSantis is falling behind Haley for second place.

CNN posted:

And Trump�s backers are likewise more enthusiastic about supporting him than are supporters of either Haley or DeSantis. While 88% of Trump-backing likely caucusgoers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about him, a smaller majority of DeSantis backers � 62% � feel the same way and just 39% of Haley�s supporters in Iowa express that level of enthusiasm for her.

There are more people supporting Trump and they are more enthusiastic. The other story is the brutal cold weather and if you're not enthusiastic it's gonna hold people back from going.

CNN posted:

The poll also finds Trump with the highest favorability ratings in the field; 69% hold a favorable view of the former president, compared with 58% who view DeSantis favorably, 52% who have a favorable view of Vivek Ramaswamy and 48% who have a favorable view of Haley.

And they like him the most.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2024 15:13

gurragadon: Jul 28, 2006

I'm thinking it's just Republicans still being all in for Trump. It was really cold, and Trump was probably going to win so a lot of people just stayed home.

This article says who voted for Haley as opposed to Trump. They seem like the Republicans (and probably some Democrats and Independents) who caucused for Haley are the ones who already stopped supporting Trump.

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224874558/takeaways-iowa-republican-caucus-2024

NPR posted:

But there are some red flags for Haley going forward.

Her win in Johnson County is indicative of the problem she faces. The county, home to the University of Iowa, has the highest percentage of college degrees in the state. And look at the groups Haley won in the state overall:

-moderates
-those who said if Trump was convicted, he would not be fit to serve as president
-those with foreign policy as their top issue
-those who said they didn't consider themselves part of the MAGA movement
-those who thought Biden legitimately won in 2020
-those who said the candidate quality that mattered most to them was having the right temperament
-those with advanced degrees

Those are hardly the majority of Republican Party rank-and-file voters.

NPR posted:

Put another way ... almost $124 million was spent on campaign ads in Iowa by the Republican candidates, more than any other state by far.

That translates to $1,124 per person who showed up to vote.

This is a crazy stat though. Such as waste of money, at least if voters were bribed, they could spend that money on food. This is all on advertising that isn't changing anybody's minds. This CNN article has the breakdown of who spend what. About 105 million for the non Trump candidates and 18 million for Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/politics/advertising-spending-iowa-republicans/index.html

# ¿ Jan 16, 2024 17:20

gurragadon: Jul 28, 2006

daslog posted:

Haley lost the Nevada Primary to "None of the above?"

I guess that's a wrap then?

Yeah, pretty much. It's been over the whole time though really because Republicans have been voting for Trump while crossover Democrats and "moderate" Republicans (which don't exist outside of the media) are the only ones who want Haley. Pretty embarrassing to lose to "None of the above" though, especially because the Haley campaign went with the primary in Nevada for the media win at the expense of delegates.

# ¿ Feb 7, 2024 19:03

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