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blackmet
Aug 5, 2006

I believe there is a universal Truth to the process of doing things right (Not that I have any idea what that actually means).

Mooseontheloose posted:

I mean there is a play for 2028 if she can be the next in line DeSantis and get fawning coverage about how's different than Trump (despite being in the admin).

I think she's a huge threat for 2028.

If Trump doesn't win the general in 2024 and is still alive and not jailed in 2028...I mean, I'm sure he'll run again, but I don't think he will have nearly as much power left. Eventually, people do get sick of losing, schticks do get old, and it will be time to move on.

If you want to pivot, a folksy young-ish minority woman who talks tough about China is a fairly clear sign that you are at least making surface level changes. The core is still rotten, but it's a fresh coat of paint that might trick just enough people to eke out a win.

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blackmet
Aug 5, 2006

I believe there is a universal Truth to the process of doing things right (Not that I have any idea what that actually means).

Ethics_Gradient posted:

Actually, no, the numbers are just distorted by alcoholics pulling the average way up:



Something like half of Americans are either teatotalers or effectively abstinent (only have a glass of wine or champagne at a wedding/holiday dinner).

While reducing your alcohol consumption can only be beneficial for your health and longevity (those "glass of red wine a day" studies have been debunked), I think you are overstating the risks of alcohol consumption. IIRC think chances of getting certain kinds of cancer might rise like 1-3 percentage points or something?

Man, I feel like I've put in an epic amount of work to go from 9th to 8th decile.

blackmet
Aug 5, 2006

I believe there is a universal Truth to the process of doing things right (Not that I have any idea what that actually means).

daslog posted:

It doesn't matter, Trump is going to win unless something out of the blue happens. Maybe a heart attack or a dementia moment.

I'm not as sure about this.

I think he could win. But there was an interesting thing I heard on an Atlantic podcast where they believed a lot of his current strength in polls is because he's too distracted by his court cases to campaign. Nor does he actually have to at this point.

Once he actually starts campaigning and talking and holding rallies, a small but substantial enough amount of people are going to remember "Oh, yeah, this dude SUCKS," and vote accordingly.

It's not like 2017-2020 was some amazing age of enlightenment. It was a bunch of yelling and fighting and being governed by Twitter, capped off with a pandemic. The after effects of it are still being felt. Let's not bring back the disease.

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