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DarklyDreaming posted:Yeah Ron's campaign strategy makes sense on paper. In practice he keeps face-planting on every little thing As long as Trump is still in the race, running your campaign message as "Trump is great, Trump won the election in 2016 and 2020, he is being railroaded, even though I definitely think he won in 2016 and 2020 I also think he might be unelectable and you should vote for me because I am almost as great as Trump" is going to be a losing strategy. DeSantis also doesn't really have a compelling reason to be the race or have a distinctive platform. If you asked someone to sum up DeSantis' campaign message in less than 5 words, could anyone do it? Could you get 80 out of 100 people to give you the same answer when you asked them? Say what you will about them personally or how they ran their campaigns, but Trump, Obama, Bernie Sanders, George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and John McCain all had very clear messages and narratives around why they were running to be President. DeSantis is just "I'm almost as good as Trump and people might not remember me in 6 years, so I gotta do this now."
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Jul 26, 2023 19:45
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BiggerBoat posted:Agreed. As a resident I can tell you that the state (or at least where I live) is getting dumber, meaner and less affordable but, in conservative ideology, is held up as a shining beacon of Freedom because they stayed open for business during Covid and only 89,000 people died. There already is a non-profit/public insurer in Florida, but it is only available if you can't get a policy from anyone else. FEMA redid their flood insurance policies in 2021 to stop fully subsidizing people who build in flood zones and make claims every 3 years, so now the Florida state fund is slowly on track for bankruptcy because the state government knows it is a losing battle and doesn't want to raise taxes to dump in there. Going to be interesting to see how that looks in 15 years.
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Jul 28, 2023 13:54
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Ron DeSantis and Rick Perry are the most bizarrely successful politicians who can win elections in huge states, raise millions of dollars, and convince other people that they should vote for them/not run against them, but apparently completely melt down as soon as they leave their state. https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1684690327750254592
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Jul 28, 2023 14:20
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Extreme Jeb energy from DeSantis:quote:For $1, New Hampshire voters were invited to drink beer with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday in Concord. quote:Audience Member: I'm 15 and a member of JROTC. I really want to continue my family's tradition of military service when I become an adult, but I struggle with major depressive disorder. I can't legally vote, but I -- quote:Later that evening, in Osceola, an 82-year-old farmer told DeSantis that he tends fewer acres since his wife died of cancer five years ago, and asked about the candidate’s thoughts on ethanol, a corn-based renewable fuel used in cars. quote:DeSantis defended his personal touch in an interview with NBC News last week, arguing that critics are off-base when they say he has difficulty connecting. https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1686179239974813696
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Aug 1, 2023 19:12
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Did he mean to say that Biden is doing better than Trump would? Seems like Biden would be doing both better and worse by default considering Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:56
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Ron DeSantis - in his new more relatable and human form - is having his wife give interviews to stress his humility and compassion. The two examples she gave of his humility and compassion during their 14-year marriage were: 1) He took her out to dinner as a surprise in 2014. 2) After she was diagnosed with breast cancer, he would pick up their kids from school on days when her cancer treatment was scheduled at the same time as their kids' school or sports. https://twitter.com/VABVOX/status/1689358167975534592
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Aug 10, 2023 14:59
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Nixon winning in 1960 would have been a pretty huge change. - Nixon would be Pres during the Cuban missile crisis. - No JFK starting civil rights and Johnson finishing it up/Democrats losing the south forever. - No JFK/LBJ means no Great Society/Medicare/Medicaid. Seems like every 20 years the U.S. has a Presidential election that seems really unimportant, but ends up being a dramatically huge moment. FDR broke everyone's brain and ended up getting a constitutional amendment passed by running for a 3rd term in 1940. Kennedy over Nixon in 1960. Nobody predicted what a massive change the Reagan revolution would end up being in 1980. 2000 was supposed to be a boring inconsequential election that instead lead to the Iraq War, Bush tax cuts, a conservative Supreme court majority, and Medicare Part D.
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Aug 11, 2023 04:36
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i say swears online posted:lmfao gently caress off with the numerology. fdr's 1940 win was not even his own career's most consequential election That's not what numerology is, lol. That is just the linear measure of time.
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Aug 11, 2023 14:04
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VitalSigns posted:Bush didn't create the conservative Supreme Court majority, Nixon did (with an assist from conservative Democrats who blocked Johnson's nomination in his final year) it had been conservative since 1969. It had a majority of justices appointed by a Republican since the 1970's. But, those Republican appointments included people like Souter, Blackmun, and John Paul Stevens (who eventually became liberal bloc leaders on the court). They didn't get a full 5-vote majority of extremely conservative justices until the GWB-era. yronic heroism posted:Aside from whatever may have happened with the Cuban Missile Crisis, I don’t think it’s that simple and you’re sort of relying on the Great Man fallacy. I’d argue most of the domestic policy could have probably happened in some form, albeit a lot of Great Society would be delayed until the next time there was a Democratic president with a workable majority, which could still be as early the mid to late 60s. Yeah, obviously I don't mean that civil rights would never happen if Kennedy wasn't elected. Just that they wouldn't have happened at the same time or the same way.
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Aug 11, 2023 14:59
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VitalSigns posted:That would be Trump then because the Roberts court from the GWB era still upheld Roe and wrote Obergefell since Kennedy joined the liberal bloc on social issues Roberts gutted the VRA, upended 200 years of gun laws, dramatically scaled back the administrative state/regulatory agencies, allowed a lot of "religious freedom" arguments to eat away at those social issues, and prevented the federal government from compelling states to make Medicaid policy changes by conditioning money in the Obamacare case. Those are all precedents that previous courts, even conservative courts, refused to touch. I think it is pretty fair to call him a conservative justice in a way that John Paul Stevens or Blackmun (who was appointed by a Republican, but was one of the most liberal justices in modern history) was not.
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Aug 11, 2023 15:18
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VitalSigns posted:At this point you're just drawing a bullseye around the bulletholes to make your numerology true. All of the conservative courts have written major decisions and the rolling back of liberal victories has been a continuous process, and John Roberts' appointment isn't the best place to draw the line. What does the 20 year thing have to do with how conservative Blackmun is vs. Roberts? I don't think it is a hot take that the Roberts court is the most conservative Supreme Court in modern history and that for a long time being appointed by a Republican (like Stevens, Blackmun, or Souter) did not necessarily equal "very conservative judicial philosophy."
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Aug 11, 2023 15:37
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Mustang posted:There's no way someone with such a nasally and whiny voice would ever make it and become president. Not even remotely intimidating 
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Sep 1, 2023 14:31
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I know that it is basically the #1 or #2 issue nationwide for Republican voters, but it is still a little funny that there is so much focus on the Mexican border in New Hampshire.
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Sep 19, 2023 14:51
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Timmy Age 6 posted:I'm a little disappointed - I'm also in New Hampshire, but the closest I've come to the primary circus has been working on a dock adjacent to where Vivek Ramaswamy was giving a speech to a boatload of Republican donors. No mailers. Maybe the fact that my roommates and I are all registered Dems is influencing the spam? It's not all fun and games. There can be severe material and mental costs. Barack Obama destroyed my very nice umbrella 16 years ago. I was walking through a park to go to a meeting. I always walk through this park on my way to this side of town. But, Obama was giving a speech there and the Secret Service wouldn't let me into the park because my umbrella was spring-loaded. He had just made it big onto the national scene and was getting Secret Service protection really early in the process. So, I had to either leave the park and pay money for a cab to get to the meeting in time or watch the Secret Service Officer destroy my beloved umbrella. That was when I lost my faith in democracy.
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Sep 21, 2023 14:36
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Mustang posted:I really don't see how Trump is going to win having already lost once to Biden and the GOP consistently underperforming in elections. They are. Plus, every President has lower enthusiasm for their re-election, the out party generally has higher enthusiasm, and you don't have an ongoing major crisis like COVID and Trump's first term to motivate people. It is definitely not impossible.
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Sep 29, 2023 16:54
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Zotix posted:Trump's campaign is absolutely bleeding money from what I've been reading. I'll be curious how it works out for him through next year. He just may not have the money to run ads when it's needed. He still has plenty of money. He has raised an enormous amount of money, but he is diverting his "outside spending" that would normally go to Super PACs to his legal defense fund. He can't use any actual campaign money for it. He's raised well over $140 million through his campaign and various political funds. But, he's spent about $22 million on his legal defense. He's "wasted" a large amount of money, but still has a good bit. He can also theoretically go back to the same donors for more money because they are "outside political organizations" and not part of his campaign. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Sep 29, 2023 |
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Sep 29, 2023 19:56
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Vivek isn't even really involved in pharma or biotech. He is in finance. His "biotech/pharma" career is: 1) He bought a biotech company and bought patents for failed drugs from pharma companies for basically nothing. 2) He hyped up that he had a system to turn the failed drugs around and make them work. 3) He pitched it to investors and said they could get potentially enormous returns because they would be blockbuster drugs that he bought for pennies because they failed clinical trials. 4) He got about $1.5 billion in investments and then sold the company. 5) It turns out that his "system" wasn't successful, the drugs still didn't work, and the people who bought it from him took a huge bath.
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Oct 1, 2023 04:55
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Clarste posted:I am aware of several people who have lived past their 80s. Source?
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Oct 6, 2023 13:54
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Ron is between 5'6" and 5'7". That's definitely shorter than the average man by a couple inches, but it isn't horrendously short. Trump does the same thing where he is actually fairly tall, but still lies about his height. He claims he is 6'3", but he is shorter than Obama who is 6'2". He's probably actually around 6 feet or 6'1", which is still pretty tall! daslog posted:I've been remiss in posting the mailings. Here are the last two weeks worth. If I posted a double by mistake, it's because after a while they all look the same. Our kids are failing capitalism and socialism in this scenario. Supply and Demand 101 should tell us that nobody is going to purchase a glass of lemonade for $33 trillion. Haley wants us to think of the children, but also apparently thinks they are morons who are (even worse) bad at business.
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Nov 3, 2023 13:51
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i say swears online posted:the supreme court said he couldn't use covid money to forgive it or something but he never tried to use the full power of the executive, which has been a remarkably robust legal theory the last few decades The Supreme Court said he couldn't do it via executive action without congress appropriating money for it via the law used during covid (HEROES Act of 2003). The other law that may allow the Secretary of Education to forgive debt is the Higher Education Act of 1965, but it requires significant time due to legally required rule-making procedures. They started that up this summer and it probably won't be resolved until the end of next year. That act also requires a committee made up of various stakeholders to determine the details about forgiveness and state specific groups or statuses that will trigger forgiveness. The literal wording of the law says that the Secretary of Education can "compromise, waive, or release" loans held by the Department of Education. On its face, it seems pretty robust. But, it also defines student loans as several different types of loans that don't exist anymore. He is using the "full power of the executive" for loan forgiveness now, but I also wouldn't count on the current Supreme Court taking a very generous interpretation of the wording of the law.
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Nov 6, 2023 18:22
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VitalSigns posted:Executive authority doesn't seem that robust to me, because can't Trump just undo that if he wins? Or congress can overturn it with the Congressional Review Act if they win, like what happened to a bunch of stuff Obama implemented using rulemaking? (Shouldn't they have done something about the CRA?) Or overturned by the right-wing court like so many of Biden's other executive actions which he relied on instead of doing the hard work of passing a law? (A right-wing court he's done nothing about btw). The CRA only applies to rules submitted within the last 60 days of congress, so it wouldn't apply to any rulemaking in effect right now. If it was something that was done exclusively via executive action, then it is likely something that Trump could also reverse via executive action, though.
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Nov 20, 2023 20:16
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Captain_Maclaine posted:"The United States will in some form continue to exist" is precious little comfort for the various already-vulnerable minority groups who get unpersoned and crushed in the interim should this come to pass. It's like when Politifact made Obama's claim that Paul Ryan's plan "would end Medicare as we know it" the "Lie of the Year" because his plan would keep the Medicare name and just redo every aspect of how it works instead of abolishing it and starting a new program with a different name.
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Nov 21, 2023 15:54
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Honestly surprised that DeSantis and Haley are doing so well and Trump is currently being held to just 51%. I wonder if the very low turnout and sense of inevitability about Trump had an impact.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:28
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Phlegmish posted:Looks like they were reasonably close...except when it comes to DeSantis, for some reason. I'm guessing a lot of people decided to vote for him at the last second, out of pity. He's been trying so hard. DeSantis is within the margin of error for most polls. Some polls were significantly off, but the overall average of polls did very well. Caucuses are also generally more difficult to poll than primaries. The only thing that was a little off was not really the polls fault. A lot of people were assuming that the undecideds were eventually going to just go with Trump because they usually just go for the default choice. But, they either voted for someone else or didn't show up.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:46
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Hutch-mentum is dead. https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1747288921468240319
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Jan 16, 2024 17:12
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OctaMurk posted:Ron's loss is yet another blow to the italian american community https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1747122489887805536
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Jan 16, 2024 20:21
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Former DeSantis campaign advisor spills the beans on how sad the campaign was. Nothing too surprising, but the details are funny.quote:Over the last few weeks, about half a dozen reporters told me they were getting ready to write the obituary on DeSantis’s campaign and wanted to include comments I made to them in off-the-record meetings. quote:For months, I warned Governor DeSantis and his team about their campaign strategy; everything from the super PAC to his message seemed wrong, and I made it known. So here’s what happened. quote:On May 10, I boarded a Delta Airlines flight to Tallahassee to meet the governor, his wife and his campaign team. It was a sort of meet and greet and strategy session for “influencers,” a term I despise, but I’ll go with it, given that’s what everyone was calling it. I need to clarify from the start that DeSantis, his team and the campaign did NOT pay for my hotel or flight. Every influencer had to pay their own way. quote:At the kick-off of the meeting, the team introduced themselves and gave a brief résumé of their past campaign experience. My political Spidey-sense immediately started tingling because I began to hear the same thing repeatedly: “I worked for Ted Cruz in 2016.” quote:“Thirty percent of the Republican electorate is always Trump, 20 percent is with DeSantis, 15 percent is NeverTrump and 35 percent is like Trump but is considering an alternative who holds his opinions,” DeSantis’s pollster said. quote:“You always mention Florida, but I don’t want to move to Florida. I like mountains and seasons. You need to speak to people who want to stay in the Midwest; you need a national vision. You can’t plant palm trees in Michigan; what are you going to do for people in the Midwest.” quote:DeSantis said he mentioned China, and then the next influencer began to speak. Like the first influencer, I spoke to him beforehand, saying we need to be honest that things aren’t going well, and he agreed. quote:DeSantis asked the room another question, “What are the biggest issues facing the country?” quote:I said, “You need to attack Trump.” quote:I made my way to a car with another influencer. We sat in the back seat and looked at each other. He said, “Dude, that was horrible, wasn’t it? Like this is not good.” I agreed and thought I had to speak to the campaign team during the dinner. quote:Weeks later, I received word that he was announcing his run on a Twitter Space with Elon Musk onstage. quote:As the weeks went by, I grew more frustrated. The advance team was doing a terrible job with his videos off-center with awful lighting, and he was tripling down on the Evangelical vote in Iowa. He appeared on a Christian television show, and it came off terribly to me; it took several times for DeSantis to mention he was Catholic after being asked. When asked about the Vatican, he talked about Israel. Evangelicals are not who they were in the year 2000 — many don’t go to church, most Republicans don’t go to church on a weekly basis and they’re much more transactional in how they approach politics. quote:I said that the advance team was an embarrassment and should be fired, the messaging was all wrong, that doubling down to try to sound like an Evangelical when he was not an Evangelical would not work and his interview on the Christian show was embarrassing. https://thespectator.com/politics/told-ron-desantis-campaign-2024/
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Jan 16, 2024 21:39
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Eric Cantonese posted:That is such a load of crap. Yeah, he's still such a DeSantis fan that he dropped his career to become a campaign advisor and has awful political views. But, he is leaking all the emails and conversations now because he is mad and most of them have already been leaked for an upcoming book that he is trying to get ahead of.
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Jan 16, 2024 21:48
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Are white women still the biggest beneficiary of AA policies? Sort of. White women didn't really benefit "the most" from AA policies. They were just the group with the largest absolute amount of beneficiaries because there are 5x more white women than non-white women applying for college. Percentage-wise, black women were the biggest beneficiaries. (This is for college admissions and not other AA policies)
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Jan 16, 2024 23:00
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Remember that this was a real ad put together by someone running for President for who had $200 million in funding for his campaign? The article by his former campaign advisor commenting about all the people he hired being ex-Ted Cruz staffers and weirdo 4chan people in their 20's makes a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/RegimeTwink/status/1747113347877687435
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Jan 17, 2024 16:10
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DynamicSloth posted:She has a shot at keeping the race 'alive' for a few more weeks but winning New Hampshire doesn't give her a path to the nomination, there is no state between now and super Tuesday where she actually likely to win. She knows what she is doing and isn't just dumb. She had previously (10+ years ago) said that someone tried to tell her she couldn't win a beauty pagent in South Carolina because she was "a brown girl" and that her father was discriminated against for wearing a turban. She just (correctly) realizes that the modern GOP voter does not want to hear that racism exists.
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Jan 17, 2024 20:38
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PT6A posted:Well isn't there that moron nobody who will surely make a strong showing in the NH Dem primary? I mean, I saw him on TV once, I think his name might have been Dean or something but who can tell? Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson are the only names on the NH primary ballot, so they will probably do better than you would expect since they are technically the only options. An official write-in campaign for Biden is currently polling at around 55%, so they probably still won't win. Biden removed his name from the ballot and RFK Jr. never qualified before he eventually decided to run as an independent anyway.
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Jan 22, 2024 20:36
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Personally I think it's dangerous to assume any fascist chooses fascism because they are stupid. They know what they are doing. They might also be ignorant / stupid, but there isn't anyone out there who doesn't realize Trump is a huge racist. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He's been open about it for decades now. Yeah. I think a lot of them just retroactively justify what they really wanted. There are definitely a lot of dumb people who think "Rich person = good at economy" or "I like Democrats/Republicans, but since there is a Democratic/Republican President or Congress, then I have to vote for the other party to balance it out." But, one of the people they interview in the Politico piece said he voted for Trump in 2016 because both of the party establishments hated him. Then, he said he voted for Trump in 2020 for the same reason. Now, he says that he doesn't care that the Republican establishment is all in on Trump now because they learned he was "good at the economy", so he can vote for Trump even though he isn't opposed by both parties anymore.
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Jan 23, 2024 15:04
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Haley currently has an unprecedented 100-point margin over Trump in the early NH primary results. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1749660885985976421
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Jan 23, 2024 15:33
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Dixville Notch gave Haley a 100-point lead, but it is much closer on the Democratic side. A three-way tie for 0. All 6 of the town's eligible voters decided to vote in the Republican primary and none in the Democratic primary.
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Jan 23, 2024 16:32
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Just for clarification: Trump's base is pretty much the same as the generic Republican base. He does have a slightly different coalition, though. He does disproportionately well with white voters without degrees and disproportionately worse with white voters with degrees than a generic Republican. Sometimes, people talking about his "base" mean the groups that he does disproportionately well with and not the group that supplies the majority of the votes.
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Jan 23, 2024 18:23
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STAC Goat posted:Trump seemed very bitter in his speech that Haley isn’t dropping out and kissing the ring. So I wonder if that could kind of extend her viability. If he’s all salty and insecure about her even as he’s beating her that seems like it potentially makes her a bigger threat and effectively does for her what she’s unwilling to do with direct attacks. She can just be all southern passive aggressive about it. It's sort of a worst-case version of the best-case scenario for Trump. He is clearly winning enough that he is going to win every primary, but he is pulling just over 50% even against Nikki Haley who is basically just a stand-in for an anti-Trump protest vote and she is refusing to drop out. So, he is in no danger of losing the race, but he is being disrespected by her refusal to kiss the ring and embarrassed that as a presumed nominee he is still only pulling a little more than 50% in what is essentially an uncontested primary. Looking weak, being embarrassed, and not having everyone kiss his rear end are Trump's least favorite things. It's basically the worst version of the best possible outcome (winning every primary) for him and it is clearly annoying him even if it isn't threatening him based on his speech last night.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:16
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Pillowpants posted:If I’m Haley I’m sticking it out to the very end. There’s just so much that could happen. Trump has already had the OG strain of Covid that was much deadlier, is vaccinated, and has access to very good healthcare. It's pretty unlikely that it would kill him. Statistically, it would much more likely be something with his heart. People also way overestimate the likelihood of death for both candidates. If you make it to 75, then the average person is going to live about 14 more years. I would guess that Biden and probably Trump will beat the average. Either way, the odds of Trump dropping dead in the next 5 months are incredibly low.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:01
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Inferior Third Season posted:People also underestimate low probability events. Those are also all average American calculations. I would assume that Biden and Trump are going to beat the average American. That means that the 4.9% is the absolute high point of probability and it is closer to 2-3% (and even lower than that if we are still talking about Haley and the nomination which would be about 5 months away instead of the inauguration that is 12 months away). 2-3% isn't impossible, but people are way overestimating the likelihood of the "Trump dies before the primaries are finished" event.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:poo poo how many of us lost a few years to mmo's much less actual addictions World of Warcraft is the most effective form of birth control and almost certainly responsible for the massive decline in teen pregnancies starting in the early 2000's. According to the DSM, an addiction has to actually have a negative impact on your life to be considered an addiction. Technically, World of Warcraft is a medical contraceptive device.
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Jan 31, 2024 15:58
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