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No activity in this thread? I guess everyone is expecting a Trump blowout tomorrow, and that's almost certainly what's going to happen. It'll be interesting to see how well Haley does, though, and if the rest of the losers eventually drop out and endorse her, despite some very heated exchanges between them.
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Jan 14, 2024 14:53
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It does seem like a foregone conclusion. Even the weather could be good for Trump, he probably has the most die-hard supporters. He also literally told them to go out and vote today even if it kills them
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Jan 15, 2024 21:23
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I actually didn't realize the caucuses hadn't even started yet, but it makes sense since it's a weekday. Don't know when we can expect the first results, but apparently the Iowa GOP has their own site with live vote count updates: https://results.iacaucus2024.com/
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Jan 15, 2024 22:17
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If every not-Trump except Haley dropped out and consolidated behind her, maybe she'd have a chance. But I doubt this will happen before it's too late, DeSantis is firmly in sunk cost fallacy mode.
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Jan 16, 2024 00:30
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Assuming that anyone who considers themselves MAGA would almost certainly vote for Trump, 53% seems reasonable. That's probably the big one, whether or not he can top 50%.
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Jan 16, 2024 01:52
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B B posted:Here's the breakdown for how these people voted according to the entrance poll, by the way: I was way off but I guess it makes sense since both DeSantis and Ramaswamy present themselves as off-brand Trump
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Jan 16, 2024 02:15
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To be fair, it only applies to the pêople who consider themselves MAGA, but I doubt the overall percentage is much higher
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Jan 16, 2024 02:20
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Yup. Extremely preliminary results from the Iowa GOP site, but the final percentages will probably be similar. Only thing up in the air is Haley vs. DeSantis. e: Asa Hutchinson 1 vote lol
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Jan 16, 2024 02:47
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Bigger chunk of results now in: Hutchinson at 0.1%, much better than the projected -9%, and also massively outperforming Christie
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Jan 16, 2024 03:49
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Final results are in. Trump has won with 51% of the vote, and also got at least a plurality in every single county (except Johnson County, where the University of Iowa is located, and where Haley apparently won by a single vote). Not as crushing a victory as he might have wanted, but getting more than every other candidate combined is still nothing to sneeze at. To no one's surprise, Ramaswamy has dropped out and endorsed Trump. e: Hutchinson, buoyed by his massive 0.2% landslide, has of course vowed to stay in the race Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 15:56
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Looks like they were reasonably close...except when it comes to DeSantis, for some reason. I'm guessing a lot of people decided to vote for him at the last second, out of pity. He's been trying so hard. More seriously, he put a lot of effort into gaining support among local opinion leaders, which probably helped him when the time came for the representatives to deliver their speeches.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:15
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whydirt posted:Barely topping 50% in a rural midwestern caucus is not great for Trump given how tailor made the contest was for him. I don't see anyone beating him for the GOP nomination, but I don't see the results as good news for him in terms of the general election. With the exception of maybe the towns along the Mississippi that are arguably part of the Rust Belt, Iowa is not Trump country at all. He got trounced by Ted Cruz there back in 2016. However, it is true that he has managed to win over evangelicals since then, as they realized that (despite him personally being an immoral philanderer) he would implement their policies and appoint conservatives wherever possible, so I guess you could still say that 51% isn't too impressive
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Jan 16, 2024 17:47
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DalaranJ posted:He couldn’t handle losing to... I am lolling at him throwing shade at the state of Iowa on the way out quote:My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current frontrunner did not sell in Iowa. I am the best candidate, however, these loving idiots couldn't see that. The Hutch out
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Jan 16, 2024 18:20
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Oh, he's absolutely correct, that's what makes it even funnier
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Jan 16, 2024 18:51
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Eric Cantonese posted:https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/06/29/affirmative-action-who-benefits-white-women/70371219007/ This statistic does surprise me somewhat, not so much the white part, which is what you would expect from a numbers perspective (assuming affirmative action in the US also applies to factors such as income and level of disability), but that it's white women specifically. Women are already significantly overrepresented in tertiary education, and have been for a while now, at least where I live.
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Jan 17, 2024 09:02
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That's the one thing you can say for empty suit Haley, she's the only one willing to unambiguously distance herself from Trump at times. Of course, since the latter has so thoroughly co-opted the GOP, it won't matter in the end, but at least she tried.
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Jan 17, 2024 20:07
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That's the problem, New Hampshire is the special snowflake state where they love voting differently from the rest of the country. If she can't even win there, not much hope elsewhere.
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Jan 17, 2024 20:37
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Betting the China one's from Haley, she seems obsessed with that country for some reason
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Jan 20, 2024 02:44
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Ah, so he's...opposed to surrendering, and in favor of strength?  Want to see the Haley pamphlet where she explains that, actually, DeSantis is the one who's weak on China
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Jan 20, 2024 14:22
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Huh? Why is he not on the ballot?
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Jan 20, 2024 15:34
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The gently caress lol, I wouldn't vote for him either if I were in NH, but I guess no one's running against him
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Jan 20, 2024 15:45
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Bird in a Blender posted:The DNC has stripped NH of all of its delegates and has threatened politicians with sanctions if they campaign in the state. This is all because the democrats wanted to switch who gets the first in the nation primary, which will be South Carolina. NH has it in their state constitution that they must be first, so they refused to change it despite what the DNC is doing. Bad look for them but I guess it makes sense to care more about South Carolina than tiny New Hampshire, and the latter might still vote Democratic anyway
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Jan 20, 2024 22:31
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Wonder what he'd do if he dropped out. Endorsing Trump would be incredibly humiliating at this point, but he's just spent half a year calling Haley a treasonous China-loving bitch, so that'd be a hard sell too.
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Jan 21, 2024 13:53
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I think even Haley herself doesn't expect to get the nomination at this point, but she's doing well enough that she can justify staying in the race, boosting her profile and becoming the darling of whatever's left of the old GOP establishment.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:08
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Civilized Fishbot posted:There's got to be at least a 1% chance that Trump can't get the nomination because he dies/has a totally disastrous medical condition/has incredibly serious evidence emerge from one of his many lawsuits. Hmm...that is true. They don't call him Chaos Trump  for nothing, you never know what's going to happen, and she's in a perfect position to get the nod if he finally succeeds in eliminating himself for whatever reason, as being one of the few who dared to challenge him and actually had a measure of success.
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Jan 21, 2024 17:35
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I know this isn't a novel observation, but it's a fine line to tread, distancing yourself from Trump, but not his massive base, and I think she's done a decent job of it. At least compared to charisma black hole DeSantis
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Jan 21, 2024 18:13
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C. Everett Koop posted:I feel like Haley's in a weird place where she can't win a GOP primary against any white male with a pulse (which does thin out the herd quite a bit) but could win a general against most Democrats, but especially Biden. If Trump were to drop dead tomorrow or get kicked off the ballot by the SC, there'd be about 20 people jumping into the race and Haley would lose the primary to either DeSantis or Tom Cotton or some other ghoul in a stiff suit. I just don't think she can overcome the inate racism of the GOP primary electoriate. She could get VP; she was all but screaming pick her for VP in '16 but didn't want to hitch her wagon to what everyone was assuming was a doomed Trump campaign and we all know how that's turned out. I don't think you understand the modern (white) right-wing mindset if you believe this. There's a whole cottage industry of 'POC' on YouTube telling conservative and/or alt-right white people exactly what they want to hear, and some of them are very popular. People like that are perfect for the right to latch on to, because it means they are partially shielded from accusations of racism, and it reinforces the narrative of their side being the voice of reason in a world gone woke. Even this black woman agrees with us! Sure, some of the more primitive primary Republicans might instinctively object to having to vote for an Indian woman, but generally they understand the strategic value of having their viewpoints be defended by someone like that. Haley is not dumb, she herself understands this very well, and that's why she's saying all this poo poo about the Civil War not being about slavery, and the US never having been a racist country. She doesn't actually believe that, she just knows that it will be popular with the base, and that she has a better chance of getting away with it due to not being white. Additionally, she goes by Nikki Haley, the most bog-standard Anglo name imaginable, and she's Christian. She ticks all the right assimilationist boxes to be considered 'one of the good ones'. I honestly don't think her background is a handicap, it might actually be helping her.
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Jan 21, 2024 23:24
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Well, I guess you're right. He did, in fact, just endorse Trump.
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Jan 22, 2024 02:29
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:Yeah, a big part of DeSantis' appeal to conservatives outside of Florida was the "proof" that his win in 2022 was a sign that the Culture War was alive and well, and people still enthusiastically voted for him after his passage of "controversial" (anti-LGBT) laws and a public fight with Disney. Like, it wasn't the man himself, but the idea that anti-gay and anti-trans bills could be passed and actually be beneficial to the person passing them was a shot in the arm for a bunch of conservative Evangelical types. It was a sign to them that their bigoted causes are now political wins, and they should keep fighting that good fight. Interesting point. Part of the discourse among certain sections of the right is that they are the plucky underdogs protecting free speech, the rational exchange of ideas, and true critical thought against an ideologically intolerant elite who utterly and one-sidedly dominate the media and academia. When your side not only gains power, but immediately turns out to be even more intolerant to the extent that it can't be handwaved away, it ruins that gratifying narrative for some of the more self-aware Republicans. DeSantis's playbook worked well in Florida for whatever reason, but it's not easily transferable to every other part of the country. Especially places like New Hampshire, where Haley was projected to completely destroy DeSantis, despite presenting herself as a more traditionally evangelical (yes I know she is actually a Methodist) Republican, which they usually don't much like either in New England.
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Jan 22, 2024 10:21
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Personally I think it's dangerous to assume any fascist chooses fascism because they are stupid. They know what they are doing. They might also be ignorant / stupid, but there isn't anyone out there who doesn't realize Trump is a huge racist. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He's been open about it for decades now. This is surface-level analysis. The entire state of West Virginia did not wake up one day and decide to be horrible bigots just because. The narrative of 'white privilege' holds true in a general sense, and especially in metro areas, but if you are a laid-off coal miner living in a trailer in a declining 98% white town, and your only son has just died from an overdose, you probably don't feel very privileged. In fact, you are likely to resent the suggestion, especially when it comes from Democrats who are supposed to have your interests at heart. Then along comes Trump, who not only will not disparage you for being deplorable white trash, but promises he will magically get back all of the jobs that went overseas. That's where the core of his support comes from. That's why he's popular in these areas. Their main motivation is not racism or a desire to stick it to uppity minorities, which often barely exist where they live, and in fact many of them voted for Obama in 2008. This is obviously not to say that Trump himself is not a horrible racist and a horrible person in general, or that people shouldn't be criticized for voting for him. However, presenting elections (especially in a two-party system) as a Manichean battle of good versus evil, without examining the structural (particularly economic) factors that might cause people to vote a certain way, is just lazy.
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Jan 23, 2024 08:13
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Gyges posted:It's important to keep in mind that Ron's agenda has not "worked well". It just hasn't overturned more than 2 decades of Republican rule within 3 years. Almost everything that he's done that you know him for, other then being a COVID moron, has taken place between April of 2021(Riot idiocy) and May of 2023(finally jumped in the race). Prior to that, he was a JEB level tolerable evil outside of COVID. The ratfucking of Florida's Felon Voting Amendment wasn't his baby, and he just went along with it. Though maybe you could push his non COVID bullshit 4/5 months if you want for his idiotic raids on felons who voted. Fair point. I should have said 'worked well enough' in the sense that DeSantis wasn't immediately disavowed by his own party, which is what almost certainly would have happened in some other states. I've seen people in this thread conclude from this that it is not a good electoral strategy to double down on the culture war, but I don't necessarily agree. This sudden focus on things like critical race theory in high schools might seem random, but is actually quite clever. It plays on the long-standing and not entirely unwarranted right-wing fear of leftist institutional domination, as well as white fears of displacement and the loss of ascendancy. There is also a legitimate discussion to be had about whether or not it is appropriate to teach this subject in high schools, even if the arguments are often made in bad faith. It's often pointed out with glee that many of the people who adamantly oppose CRT don't understand what it is, that they lack the educational background or even cognitive capacities to understand it, and this is true, but the same obviously also holds true for the average high school student. In the past decade and a half, we've seen an endless stream of people on places like tumblr, X, YouTube, and TikTok using and abusing popularized academic concepts that they barely grasp even on a surface level, let alone the complexities and nuances involved in their original formulation. In a way that's indicative of the way popular culture has shifted in a certain direction, but it also has a tendency to backfire spectacularly. So the Republican culture warriors have focused on a very specific strain of sociology that has built-in controversy even among parts of the left, pretended it was something that Democrats uniformly wanted to impose on the curriculum, and then proceeded to attack their own strawman. It's not a bad strategy at all. It puts Democrats in the position of having to either deny that they support CRT, which puts them at odds with the more identity-focused parts of their own base, or defend it, which can be electoral poison in competitive districts in certain parts of the country. The problem with DeSantis is that he took it one step further, with the book bans and Don't Say Gay and such. Not only should children be shielded from certain topics even if they are presented neutrally and factually, people are not even allowed to voluntarily seek out information on specific subjects, as determined by the government. Doing this immediately undermines the previously established rational-thinking, freedom-loving underdog narrative, for obvious reasons. Suddenly it's your own side that is censoring and banning opposing viewpoints. It creates a massive amount of cognitive dissonance in certain Republican voters, and repels enough of them that it turns from a winning into a losing strategy.
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Jan 23, 2024 09:20
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reignonyourparade posted:That is absolutely why he is super popular in those specific areas, where they exist, but that is not actually the CORE of his support. The core of his support is generally the Slightly Better Off Than Average. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, I believe the median Trump supporter is well educated with a higher than average income. You have to be doing fairly well to have the time to watch all that fox news. I've seen statistics on this in the past, but I don't remember them by heart. If I had to guess, I would say that (white) Trump voters are slightly better off compared to the general electorate, but that they are worse off than the average white voter, which is possible due to race and income being correlated in the United States. As for education, I am almost certain that they are less educated on average, if not generally, then at least (again) compared to the white electorate. With level of education (negatively correlated) being a more reliable indicator than income when it comes to voting for Trump. Could be wrong, but that's what would make the most sense given existing voting patterns. My example was specific mostly to the Rust Belt and places like West Virginia, true enough. I won't deny that a large factor in his popularity elsewhere is due to the 'white backlash' that periodically occurs in American politics. The point I wanted to make more generally is that it is counterproductive to talk about Trump voters in these moralistic and slightly melodramatic terms. Yes, personality does play a role in how you vote, but far more important than that are structural economic, sociological, and cultural factors. People do not exist in a vacuum. A specific ideology and worldview is not a static quality that you as a person inherently possess. If you want to change society, you have to start by understanding what makes people tick, including the hated Other. Note that, again, this does not necessarily extend to the individual of Trump himself, and that there are many 'objective' reasons to condemn him personally, including the fact that he consciously manipulates and preys on people's insecurities and fears simply to gain power for himself, regardless of whether or not he actually believes the things he says.
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Jan 23, 2024 09:52
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I don't see how that possibly could have been debunked, given the characteristics of the areas that went from being Democratic or purple to being blood-red. But if there are studies that contradict it, I would love to see them, which I mean sincerely. The melodramatic charge I will take in stride, I know I have a tendendy to get carried away in my prose. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Jan 23, 2024 |
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Jan 23, 2024 10:54
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In other news, Haley has received 100% of the Republican primary vote in New Hampshire so far. That is to say, everyone in Dixville Notch voted for her. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68064703 quote:Most voters in New Hampshire will cast their ballots during the day on Tuesday but in tiny Dixville Notch, a handful of people voted at midnight in a decades-old tradition. All six registered voters in the resort town chose Nikki Haley over Donald Trump.
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Jan 23, 2024 11:43
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If I'm summarizing correctly, reasonably wealthy in economic terms (although not as wealthy as supporters of other Republican candidates), not so much when it comes to cultural capital, much like Trump himself. That's about what I expected, them displaying a 'working class' sense of aesthetics and values, while not necessarily struggling financially, in fact even less than I thought. I'm often reminded of that image of Trump proudly hosting a White House dinner consisting mostly of McDonald's.
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Jan 23, 2024 14:06
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43.5% would honestly be an impressive result, in isolation. Problem for Haley is that's in one of her most favorable states, after going all-in. She's unlikely to top this anywhere else, including her home state of South Carolina. The race is over, barring major surprises.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:40
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Leon Sumbitches posted:On the flip side, there are tons of Trumpists who will absolutely stay home on election day if their big wet boy isn't on the ballot. I don't know which group is bigger. Haley does much better against Biden than Trump in hypothetical match-ups, IIRC. However, I could see Trump outperforming her in the handful of Rust Belt swing states that have decided the last two elections. Could be a situation where Haley pulls in more votes than Trump, but not necessarily where it matters.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:21
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Rigel posted:I'm not sure it matters which group is bigger because they are throwing the election away to Biden. Since Trump is not immortal (that we know of) the more often he is a major party candidate, the more unpalatable the GOP becomes to the electorate outside of the hard core MAGA fringe, and the longer it will take to rebuild from the wreckage. Is this actually the case, though? They've run him as a candidate twice now, the first time he outright won, the second time he still got pretty close. Yes, he got clobbered in absolute terms, but that doesn't matter due to the US's screwy electoral system. I want to believe that this time everything is finally going to catch up to him, and all signs do point to him being less electable at this point than other Republicans, but he still seems to have enough support to make the upcoming election close.
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Jan 25, 2024 12:11
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The good news, your wife is not cheating on you. The bad news, she is instead a huge nerd who plays MMOs all day
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Jan 31, 2024 21:21
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What the hell is going on in the US this year, their primary thing is even more chaotic than usual
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Feb 7, 2024 17:33
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