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Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Budzilla posted:

It will be a wonderful freakshow. I am surprised anyone would try to have a go when Trump is running.
well, I’d first keep in mind that a lot of no-hopers are running more for a VP pick than anything.

Second, if Trump has to drop out, then this primary could get wild. I mean, it could also be the more boring path of everyone falling behind DeSantis, but it’s hard to say. But Trump has a lot of factors that could kneecap him: there’s the obvious indictments that keep piling up, there’s his age, and remember back in November his groupies were showing signs of wavering loyalty thanks to him being obnoxious about DeSantis and NFTs.

I mean, in 2015 a lot of people had Trump pegged as a doomed primary candidate. Lots of unexpected poo poo happens during an election.

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Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

VorpalBunny posted:

Sorry to derail a bit, how is the feeling on the ground in VA? Should we hope for a blue wave or is Youngkin getting his trifecta?
Polls are fairly even, although I’ve seen a slight edge to dems. So possibly we stay split, but this is pilling for a state legislature so it’s iffy territory. Youngkin does have approval over 50% by a thin margin, but he his election was before Roe got overturned, and he’s been getting flack for already turning his eye to loftier ambitions by focusing on campaigning for out-of-state Republicans and the whispers of a 2024 or 2028 presidential. This is not uncommon for VA governors given their single term limit, but it is earlier than normal for them to already look towards the national stage.

Soooo…I dunno. We got a lot of other variables like redistricting, but I feel like we should at least keep the legislature split. VA Dems were dumbasses in 2021, and they seemed to have learned from that and aren’t just screaming Trump expecting to win. Christ if I’m not tired of seeing transphobic attack ads though.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Does this mean no more debates given it’s just Haley and Trump?

I imagine she’ll use that as a point of attack, but I guess get ready for more town hall presentations.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Retro42 posted:

I was going to go into a way too in depth post about how Haley is only running as a backup to when Trump goes to jail or his brain LITERALLY starts oozing out his ears. But thinking on it I can't honestly picture a single scenario where they wouldn't just run the drooling/jailed/corpse of Trump and be totally fine with that.
Trump dying would be years of conspiracy theories as to how he was murdered. Like there will be no natural causes death his cult would accept, even a decade after his political career ended along with any incentive.

But the earliest conspiracies would be “he was murdered by the swamp” vs “he’s not dead! It’s a plot to trick the swamp!”

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Will Haley win a state? Stayed tuned.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

VA already called for VA, but Haley seems to be hanging in there for VT.

Most polls close around 8 EST, so the fun is about to begin.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Vermont is the only race you can call competitive, and with 70% of the vote in I don’t think Haley has managed to pull ahead once. Currently she’s down by 2-3%.

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Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

The only time it was in question was around Nov 2022 when Trump was pissing the party off by teasing his campaign announcement right before election day, getting into fights with DeSantis for no reason, and then stating there would be another big announcement after his campaign announcement which turned out to be cringey NFTs.

Had the primaries kicked off in 2023, things may have been more competitive. But once the legal troubles kicked into high gear, the wagons got circled and his nomination was party writ.

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