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Zwabu posted:It seems… strange to me for the Biden campaign to not get on the ballot in NH (understandable given the situation with change in rules making SC first and NH defying those rules) but then try to rely on a write in campaign to make sure they win. I mean, Biden's campaign isn't doing that though, someone just posted the article about who runs the PAC. I can see why Biden fans might be eager to prevent anyone else from even trying to claim the state, but Biden refusing to get on the ballot is important because the DNC needs to draw a hard line so that no one tries any funny business at the next truly contested primary. Things along this line have happened most presidential years that I can remember, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
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Jan 21, 2024 00:14
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Charlz Guybon posted:Trump still underperforming his polls https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1762670772768665992?s=20 Kind of seems like if this is happening with every single state primary there's reason to expect that his general election polling is gonna be skewed similarly by what I would assume is response bias. I suppose state primary polls tend to be smaller sample sizes and lower reliability anyway, so maybe this isn't a lock, but I'm not really sure how polling is going to get better from here. Definitely going to be miserable year if we have to keep hearing "Biden down by 10" every week, so hopefully I'm wrong or the polling companies get it together
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Feb 28, 2024 15:12
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Yeah, looks like Haley clinched VT, but lost all the others by fairly wide margins so far with just Utah and Alaska to go. Obviously no one expected Haley to win a meaningful number of states, but I don't really see what message there is to read in these tea leaves. I guess you could point out that even his best showings were only around 80% despite Haley's campaign being moribund, but so what? In "typical" primaries it isn't like that is super uncommon, and the reasoning for why that logic shouldn't hold is that Trump has previously held office so he "should" have something like incumbent advantage, I guess? But there hasn't been a candidate in the same situation as Trump since the modern primary was established, so that assumption is basically a gut feel thing. If Haley had won in any states that were even marginally in play for Rs this cycle I think there would be more to talk about, but winning Vermont and nothing else makes this kind of a dud narratively IMO. There's no particular evidence that never-Trump will be any more of a thing this year than it was in 2020, so if he loses it will probably be for the same reasons as it was then and/or that Republicans performed poorly in the years since then.
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Mar 6, 2024 06:09
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