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Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Crazyweasel posted:

I live in a purple state and in 2022 I honestly thought I might be having a “Big Short” moment because there were so.many.republican.signs for the MAGA candidates that won the primaries. I was like “this is not good for our Dems” and then the polls started showing coin-flip chances and I got worried.

And then, the Republicans got loving spanked by double digits. It was incredible. And so what I learned was (a) polls are trash still and (b) it’s easy to be convinced that the louder party is the majority. And these loving people don’t know how to be anything but loud.

I’m not saying there isn’t work to do to make sure Biden wins in ‘24, but you have to think about how many people actually think life would improve under a Trump admin, when we all know inflation is baked into the economy no matter who wins, and then vote that way. The old R’s have it right, generic Republican would probably smash Biden to bits…too bad they have an albatross in Trump….

I live in a purple state and the situation was much bleaker in 2022.

NC is a poster child for what America will look like if Republicans ever get enough power. Dems have completely failed to consolidate a state that has more favorable demographics than GA, and they fail hard at motivating turnout.

When your supporters lose rights and have their quality of life reduced your message can't be "well, it's the supreme court. or it's gerrymandering. we can't do anything for the next 50 years. Vote for us to keep it from getting worse". Your voters will give up unless you provide a clear roadmap to getting those things back and a clear set of things they can expect when they get there. You have to indicate a willingness to fight and be as ruthless as Republicans are.

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Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Polls were highly suspicious up to mid-October although I could believe Biden would lose the election if it were held right now. Good thing it's a year from now.

Mustang posted:

How is Trump even remotely competitive? Red America is a blight on society.

But these are the same polls that said 2022 was going to be a red tsunami, polling just completely lacks credibility in the year 2023.

If the polls are correct than now, at long last, about a decade later than expected, millennials have become conservative. Apparently profoundly so, and Trump will be our generation's Reagan. That seems to be the main takeaway. Of course, polls could also be wrong.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

It's convenient that ignoring the debates and playing it off as a chad move is the best play for him since he doesn't have the marbles to debate anymore anyway.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

How would there be a civil war? I mean if democrats grew a spine and blue states seceded and sought international legitimacy that'd be neat but I see no indication that they'd do that.

They'd roll over and take 50 years of fascism like they've rolled over and taken losses before.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

BUUNNI posted:

They wouldn’t “roll over” they’d help them like they always have. Dems are just as pro-surveillance, pro-law enforcement, and pro-authoritarian foreign policy as their GOP colleagues. And that’s unfortunately the relationship the duopoly has with itself. The establishment of both parties largely see each other as being co-workers and colleagues.

And people said *I* was baiting...

The party fighting to end the war on drugs, mass pardoning all federal drug convictions, and passing legalization laws state by state is, in fact, different from the party that uses felony disenfranchisement and gerrymandering to lock down the political process of the states it runs with an iron fist.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

They may try the last minute consolidation that dems did in 2020.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

VitalSigns posted:

This project 2025 stuff sounds like a conspiracy theory to me because I can't reconcile the hysteria in the press with the lackadaisical attitude of those actually in power.

If the next Republican is going to use the tools of the surveillance and carceral state to establish a dictatorship, why did Democrats reauthorize the P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act under Trump and expand his surveillance powers, that doesn't sound like the actions of people who believe he's a threat to the Republic. If it's because they only realized the danger after Jan 6, why didn't they repeal it when they had full control of they government.

Or, thanks to Tuberville, important military posts are vacant, ready for Trump to fill with cronies if he gets elected. This is an extremely dangerous thing to allow if Trump is planning to establish a military dictatorship, yet they all they do is scold Tuberville a bit and then let him do what he wants instead of fixing the stupid senate rule he is abusing.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/biden-federal-workforce-gop/index.html

They are making moves to try to protect federal workers. The 'lackadaisical attitude' is just your personal media bubble. People are taking this quite seriously.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

I remember 2008 pretty clearly. First time I'm hearing about this supposed coup fear right now. Considering Bush successfully stole an election I always felt the left was far too passive and compliant about it.

They should've rolled out the Sore Loserman bumper stickers for Trump, for nostalgia's sake.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Democrats' actions should not be taken as a good gauge for how dangerous conservative plans are. Just a sign of how feckless and weak they are.

Republicans had the plan to take over state legislatures, gerrymander to lock in their majorities, then continue winning states and locking them down until they had enough for a Constitutional Convention.

There were plenty states dems controlled in 2010 that could've taken measures--passing independent redistricting commissions, constitutionally enshrining separation of powers. Instead they sat back, did nothing, and got rolled. We are still dealing with this issue.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Moore v Harper had the power to straight up end democracy instantly and we got extremely lucky 2 republicans flipped for a 6-3. If MAGAs win the presidency enough times, they will have enough of a court majority to achieve their goal through this path. Just another avenue that it could all end.

What the current Republican primary establishes is that Trump is daddy. Allegiance to Trump is mandatory to clear the primaries now. The process of replacing the handful of Republicans left that have some iota of statesmanship is ongoing. Best way the left can assist is by rewarding MAGA Republicans with victories.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Every Republican president since Nixon has been punishment on the world designed to make us miss Nixon.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah, thats my guess. i think he tries to run in 2028 but depending on factors doesnt last long either. Outside red states, the OPEN evangelical poo poo/morality police poo poo isnt that popular at least for now.

I could see Ron running successfully in 2028 because fortunately for him, Republican voters have no long term memory and will completely forget how pathetic he was if he hits the ground running with a retooled campaign and aggressive image next time.

Assuming we're still doing the charade of elections by then, of course.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

I also went from 9th to 8th from my 20s to my 30s. Shame alcohol's bad for you otherwise I'd be down to have it more. Love the taste and love that it does a very controllable sort of buzz. I don't have to worry about having a half hit too much and having a nightmare trip or having just a bad headspace for it on some days. It will always be the same and there's something to be said for that.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Primary polls suck and always have sucked. I think they can have some bearing on the general election though. Clinton underperforming her polls severely in Michigan compared to Sanders was arguably a sign of trouble.

Trump underperforming compared to generic republican could be a sign of weakness. Biden underperforming compared to an empty chair in Michigan could be a sign of weakness.

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Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

If Haley had been the nominee I am positive Biden would've stepped down and handed the baton to someone else at the convention.

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