2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Something Awful Forums > Main > General Bullshit > 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Calvin update: It strengthened to a Cat3 with winds at 120mph. Still a bunch of time left between now and when it's projected to make landfall, which is the middle of next week. The models are in consensus that it will hit Hawaii, but it will probably be a tropical storm or depression by then.

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:29

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# ? May 6, 2024 05:32

nine-gear crow: Aug 10, 2013

Have they made it to Gert yet?

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:33

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

nine-gear crow posted:

Have they made it to Gert yet?

Atlantic is on Don. Gotta get through Emily and Franklin and then we'll be blessed by Gert.

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:35

Chief McHeath: Apr 23, 2002

if Gert ends up being the storm that kills me i will either lol or lmao unto my death

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:38

ZeusCannon: Nov 5, 2009; BLAAAAAARGH PLEASE KILL ME BLAAAAAAAARGH; Grimey Drawer

Ehud posted:

Calvin update: It strengthened to a Cat3 with winds at 120mph. Still a bunch of time left between now and when it's projected to make landfall, which is the middle of next week. The models are in consensus that it will hit Hawaii, but it will probably be a tropical storm or depression by then.

Im dumb so I'm going to ask. Why would it weaken? Im mostly familiar with Gulf hurricanes and so long as those are over water it feels like all they do is ramp up why would this be different?

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:41

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

ZeusCannon posted:

Im dumb so I'm going to ask. Why would it weaken? Im mostly familiar with Gulf hurricanes and so long as those are over water it feels like all they do is ramp up why would this be different?

Not dumb at all. I just learned this stuff earlier today because I never pay attention to pacific storms.

The water closer to Hawaii is cooler and the hurricane is moving against the easterly trade winds. Both of those things are bad for storms!

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:45

Bad Purchase: Jun 17, 2019

cold water and/or wind shear usually

less fuel for convection or conflicting upper and lower atmosphere winds that tilt or disrupt the vortex

# ? Jul 14, 2023 21:46

fins: May 31, 2011; Floss Finder

fins posted:

the past track is even more

don forgot something

# ? Jul 16, 2023 23:20

Mumpy Puffinz: Aug 11, 2008; Nap Ghost

fins posted:

Don seems to be a little special.

stop posting pictures of my penis

# ? Jul 16, 2023 23:25

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

baby, what is you doin?

"The depression should turn southward on Tuesday, westward on Wednesday and west-northwestward on Thursday over the open waters of the central Atlantic."

:chaostrump:

Over in the Pacific, Calvin is a tropical storm now. It's still gonna hit Hawaii, but its effects should be pretty minor. Hawaii wins again!

# ? Jul 17, 2023 16:18

ZeusCannon: Nov 5, 2009; BLAAAAAARGH PLEASE KILL ME BLAAAAAAAARGH; Grimey Drawer

Don spinning in circles until it gets to be the forever storm

# ? Jul 17, 2023 20:53

nine-gear crow: Aug 10, 2013

ZeusCannon posted:

Don spinning in circles until it gets to be the forever storm

We have downgraded it to Tropical Storm Don Jr.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 21:07

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

It has been a very quiet month. Barely any activity in the Atlantic since :chaostrump:

back in July.

But we've reached mid-August and this is when things start ramping up.

Three different systems are being tracked right now:

quote:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with
an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or
just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of
the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

# ? Aug 16, 2023 16:06

Shinjobi: Jul 10, 2008; Can't post for 5 hours!; Gravy Boat 2k

For the love of fuckin christ please rain in Texas

# ? Aug 16, 2023 16:39

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Today's 8am update. Every storm's chance of formation has gone up since yesterday.

quote:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated trough of low pressure centered over 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next several days while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 13:30

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

Hoping this is the year we have a hurricane named Heywood Jablowme.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 13:32

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

We might just need to rename the thread and drop the "Atlantic". Remember when :chaostrump:

farted around in the Atlantic, did a bunch of circles and then hosed off?

Well now Hurricane Hillary is brewing in the Pacific. It has the potential to grow to a category 4 and the flooding potential is concerning.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 20:24

big nipples big life: May 12, 2014

hurricane hillary not hitting florida or texas just seems wrong.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 20:27

500excf type r: Mar 7, 2013; I'm as annoying as the high-pitched whine of my motorcycle, desperately compensating for the lack of substance in my life.

big nipples big life posted:

hurricane hillary not hitting florida or texas just seems wrong.

She spent her whole campaign in California, it's like returning home

# ? Aug 17, 2023 20:29

WithoutTheFezOn: Aug 28, 2005; Oh no

The storm name only has one L.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 20:38

Serious_Cyclone: Oct 25, 2017; I appreciate your patience, this is a tricky maneuver

big nipples big life posted:

hurricane hillary not hitting florida or texas just seems wrong.

But Hurricane Hillary skipping the rest of the country and focusing all of its effort on California is a repeat of her 2008 primary campaign strategy

# ? Aug 17, 2023 21:22

dervival: Apr 23, 2014

...seriously though, when was the last time California state got hit by a tropical storm while they're still a tropical storm and not faded down to depression strength? I think there was one in 1939, has there been one since then?

# ? Aug 17, 2023 21:27

sure okay: Apr 7, 2006

It'll be fun I'm gonna throw a storm party.

A storm party is where I smoke weed and play baldurs gate, while ignoring the storm

# ? Aug 17, 2023 21:48

Chinatown: Sep 11, 2001; by Fluffdaddy; Fun Shoe

Ehud posted:

We might just need to rename the thread and drop the "Atlantic". Remember when farted around in the Atlantic, did a bunch of circles and then hosed off?

Well now Hurricane Hillary is brewing in the Pacific. It has the potential to grow to a category 4 and the flooding potential is concerning.

I live in San Diego and my feet might get wet n stuff. :sigh:

Also can't wash my car this weekend. :sigh:

# ? Aug 17, 2023 21:55

Fluffy Bunnies: Jan 10, 2009

I hope it just rains directly into the lakes and streams that need the water and doesn't cause any nightmare poo poo in CA.

# ? Aug 17, 2023 22:01

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

8am update just dropped. Things are hopping in the Atlantic.

quote:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or
northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By
early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to
increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for further development of this system,
but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is
forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hilary is now a Category 4 (145mph sustained winds) and another disturbance is forming behind it. The Baja and southern California are projected to get 6-10 inches of rain in a very short period of time. It seems almost certain at this point that we're going to see really bad flooding.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 13:09

big nipples big life: May 12, 2014

Yellow looks a bit scary, orange and red seem like they'd just curl around out at sea.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 13:50

dr_rat: Jun 4, 2001

big nipples big life posted:

Yellow looks a bit scary, orange and red seem like they'd just curl around out at sea.

Then b line to the UK. Storms just love randomly trying to destroy the UK.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 13:59

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

https://twitter.com/derek_mafs/status/1692539739637789144?s=20

# ? Aug 18, 2023 15:37

dervival: Apr 23, 2014

did someone leave something heavy on the right side of hil-bill's hurricane, it seems to be listing to the east pretty heavily

# ? Aug 18, 2023 16:09

Planet X: Dec 10, 2003; GOOD MORNING

Why is NHC expressing times in Mountain time when the impacts are mainly on the west coast? Some of the products (also in the SPC pages) are in UTC, which I find annoying.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 17:59

DEEP STATE PLOT: Aug 13, 2008; Yes...Ha ha ha...YES!

Planet X posted:

Why is NHC expressing times in Mountain time when the impacts are mainly on the west coast? Some of the products (also in the SPC pages) are in UTC, which I find annoying.

time for nhc to change to swatch internet time and avoid all the confusion

# ? Aug 18, 2023 18:03

WithoutTheFezOn: Aug 28, 2005; Oh no

Because the storm center was in MDT when it was detected?

�Arrival times will be referenced to 8 AM and 8 PM local time, using a constant time zone that corresponds to where the cyclone is located at the time of the advisory. For example, if a cyclone is located in the Eastern Time Zone at the time of an advisory but is forecast to move into the Central Time Zone during the 5-day forecast period, all times on the graphic will be referenced to the Eastern Time Zone.�

# ? Aug 18, 2023 18:03

Planet X: Dec 10, 2003; GOOD MORNING

WithoutTheFezOn posted:

Because the storm center was in MDT when it was detected?

�Arrival times will be referenced to 8 AM and 8 PM local time, using a constant time zone that corresponds to where the cyclone is located at the time of the advisory. For example, if a cyclone is located in the Eastern Time Zone at the time of an advisory but is forecast to move into the Central Time Zone during the 5-day forecast period, all times on the graphic will be referenced to the Eastern Time Zone.�

That's helpful, thanks. I must have overlooked it.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 18:30

Planet X: Dec 10, 2003; GOOD MORNING

Just thought of all that nasty poo poo in and around the Salton sea that's gonna go flyin

# ? Aug 18, 2023 19:20

Three Olives: Apr 10, 2005

Bad Purchase posted:

frankly i'm not a fan of these hurricanes every year, we ought to put a stop to em

Aren't they our best chance of solving the Florida problem?

# ? Aug 18, 2023 19:25

ZeusCannon: Nov 5, 2009; BLAAAAAARGH PLEASE KILL ME BLAAAAAAAARGH; Grimey Drawer

It almost feels like the Pacific has been more active this season. What with Calvin and Hdawg.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 19:39

Modulo16: Feb 12, 2014; "Authorities say the phony Pope can be recognized by his high-top sneakers and incredibly foul mouth."

Three Olives posted:

Aren't they our best chance of solving the Florida problem?

Maybe, but they provide no benefit to solving the Three Olives problem. So, who�s to say whether we keep �em or not.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 20:04

Bad Purchase: Jun 17, 2019

Three Olives posted:

Aren't they our best chance of solving the Florida problem?

no, half the state economy is now based on federal disaster aid, more hurricanes will actually enrich the state

# ? Aug 18, 2023 20:33

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# ? May 6, 2024 05:32

dervival: Apr 23, 2014

it's fine, disney's just going to get it back in damages anyways

# ? Aug 18, 2023 20:33

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