2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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blight rhino: Feb 11, 2014; EXQUISITE ~~LURKER~~ RHINO; Nap Ghost

Bad Purchase posted:

no, half the state economy is now based on federal disaster aid, more hurricanes will actually enrich the state

dervival posted:

it's fine, disney's just going to get it back in damages anyways

Did that whole thing DeSantis and Disney just fizzle out?

bt bt

where's the demarcation line for a storm to be a typhoon or a hurricane?

Would they call it a different name if it crossed that line?

i feel like i should probably know this.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 20:36

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# ? May 6, 2024 06:41

dervival: Apr 23, 2014

Here's some of a breakdown on the terminology - https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

tl;dr - not super well defined demarcation line, but you could consider the international date line it if you have to. generally a storm system won't move enough that you need to stop calling it a typhoon and start calling it a hurricane or vice versa

if that starts happening regularly we should just be calling them cyclones since that's the more accurate term; everything is generic at that point

not sure where the Disney thing is at, I was being an rear end

# ? Aug 18, 2023 20:49

Cythereal: Nov 8, 2009; I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

blight rhino posted:

Did that whole thing DeSantis and Disney just fizzle out?

Short version: it's bogged down in lawsuits currently working their way through the system. Disney's been winning all of them and Ron DeSantis would like you to know that he's moved on and forgiven Disney so he hopes Disney will move on as well.

# ? Aug 18, 2023 21:10

blight rhino: Feb 11, 2014; EXQUISITE ~~LURKER~~ RHINO; Nap Ghost

dervival posted:

Here's some of a breakdown on the terminology - https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

tl;dr - not super well defined demarcation line, but you could consider the international date line it if you have to. generally a storm system won't move enough that you need to stop calling it a typhoon and start calling it a hurricane or vice versa

if that starts happening regularly we should just be calling them cyclones since that's the more accurate term; everything is generic at that point

not sure where the Disney thing is at, I was being an rear end

Yeah, I saw that site. I was wondering if Calvin would of been a Typhoon. I mean, it doesn't matter at all other than being pedantic.

Cythereal posted:

Short version: it's bogged down in lawsuits currently working their way through the system. Disney's been winning all of them and Ron DeSantis would like you to know that he's moved on and forgiven Disney so he hopes Disney will move on as well.

Lol. Yeah, I'm pretty sure being a Disney hater on the campaign trail wouldn't clock so well.

Hilary is now a Cat 4. Just heard she might drop a year's worth of rain on the SW. Hitting up Mexico now.

It's her turn!11!!!

Historic storms to hit SoCal :

blight rhino fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Aug 18, 2023

# ? Aug 18, 2023 21:18

Haptical Sales Slut: Mar 15, 2010; Age 18 to 49

Ehud posted:

https://twitter.com/derek_mafs/status/1692539739637789144?s=20

Wasn�t she reacting to balloons or something lame lol

# ? Aug 19, 2023 08:06

Oldsmobile: Jun 13, 2006

So, is the water off California now hot enough for a Hurricane to land or will it peter out before hitting like all the historical storms.

# ? Aug 19, 2023 09:29

nine-gear crow: Aug 10, 2013

Oldsmobile posted:

So, is the water off California now hot enough for a Hurricane to land or will it peter out before hitting like all the historical storms.

The water off the coast of the Baha peninsula is apparently relatively cool right now now so it's gonna basically sap all of Hilary's strength before it gets anywhere near Los Angeles, but it's still gonna rip up the coast of Baha California as a Cat 3-to-Cat 1 and dump a dangerous shitload of rain on LA, the Inland Empire and Death Valley.

# ? Aug 19, 2023 09:36

rocket_man38: Jan 23, 2006; My life is a barrel o' fun!!

I live in Poway, so I am not too concerned. I could be wrong though, so we have the basics just in case.

# ? Aug 19, 2023 17:59

ZeusCannon: Nov 5, 2009; BLAAAAAARGH PLEASE KILL ME BLAAAAAAAARGH; Grimey Drawer

So if Hilary makes landfall in Cali will the various stormchasers head out to stream it? Or is that a bit out of their way.

# ? Aug 19, 2023 19:13

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

2pm update.

We have some new friends in the Atlantic. I threw some numbers on the 5 systems that are being watched because it's getting difficult to match them to the various forecasts.

quote:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms east of the center. While environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, a short-lived tropical
depression could form in the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
After that time, additional development is not anticipated since
upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands,
shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since
yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while this
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across
the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests
in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form.
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

5. Near the coast of Africa:
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Hilary is forecast a little further east than originally anticipated.

ZeusCannon posted:

So if Hilary makes landfall in Cali will the various stormchasers head out to stream it? Or is that a bit out of their way.

I'm not sure, but I'm digging up some webcams now.

Cabo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaGsySutfbk

Palm Springs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKRfTQxuuw0

Quad cam (Cabo, Loreto, Manzanillo, Mazatlan)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7moxAXORUM

Ehud fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Aug 19, 2023

# ? Aug 19, 2023 19:29

Mulaney Power Move: Dec 30, 2004

Is it good or bad that they'll get all that rain given the extreme drought?

# ? Aug 19, 2023 19:37

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Mulaney Power Move posted:

Is it good or bad that they'll get all that rain given the extreme drought?

Some areas are going to get some nice drought relief, and many others are at risk of catastrophic flooding. This is the latest advisory that the NHC tweeted out.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1692955099641913513?s=20

# ? Aug 19, 2023 19:43

Hazo: Dec 30, 2004; SCIENCE