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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

It's the summer. Vegas won the cup and we're all so jaded that no one seems that annoyed by it. Chicago drafted Bedard and that stinks. Some teams are about to spend way too much money on the absolute worst group of unrestricted free agents in league history. Come talk about these things and more right here.

Free Agent Frenzy begins at 11:00 a.m. EDT / 8:00 a.m. PDT on TSN, ESPN+ and NHL TV. Free agency actually opens at noon but absolutely nothing happens for the first 2 hours so maybe do something else for a bit.

e: modnote:

Hand Knit posted:

oh that's a good point. Since twitter is dying, a best practices thing is probably to also post the important info of whatever tweet you're posting

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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Hand Knit posted:

oh that's a good point. Since twitter is dying, a best practices thing is probably to also post the important info of whatever tweet you're posting

Elon making me return to the dark days of hearing about signings full minutes after they happen. I can never forgive him.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

fawning deference posted:

Yeah it's easy to see the value of O'Reilly, guy is a consummate pro, has a Cup, can mentor young players, and is still an effective player at both ends of the ice. He's exactly the kind of player a rebuilding young team would want to sign as the kids grow into their roles.

Or you know, a declining cap anchor that hampers the team's ability to improve if and when it breaks out. One of the two.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

He also got drunk and drove into the wall of a Tim Hortons but a Conn Smythe heals all wounds.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007


Hey now, he didn't hit a wall. He got drunk, rolled his car and was ejected through the windshield because he wasn't wearing a seat belt. His business partner then ripped off his greiving widow and became a billionaire while she died basically penniless.

fawning deference posted:

It's mainstream and fun to laugh at the concept of veteran players having intangibles/locker room presence but it is a real thing that is valuable to mentor young players with. O'Reilly is loved around the league by coaches and players alike and it would be stupid to think he doesn't offer any off-ice value to a rebuilding team, and on the ice he can still play effectively in a middle six role while the kids develop.

I'd say yes and no. We're dealing with humans but a lot of the examples of a great mentor to a young team are retrospective rather than recognized at the time. Plenty of teams have brought in "veteran mentors" and they've done jack poo poo. Most of the best veteran leader types are just solid contributors ala Hossa on the Hawks. It's probably better to ignore that stuff and sign the most talented player.

ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Jul 1, 2023

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

fawning deference posted:

I disagree. Players earn reputations that circulate around the league and GM's pick up on it. "Just throw together the most talented players" is not actually a formula for a winning team most of the time. There has to be a strong culture, players have to gel and buy in. This is especially true i hockey, which is so reliant on team systems and mental steadiness.

Everyone in here knows what I mean when I say "a winning culture" because there are plenty of teams that suffer/have suffered from that, only for new ownership/management to turn it around and develop a winning team.

Winning culture is a retrospective phenonmen. The Hawks won the most cups in the post lockout era playing no system anyone can identify just having lots of cocky, talented players. Toronto has consistently played a disciplined, structured style of hockey and has one playoff round win to show for it. Which of those teams has the "winning culture" and which just "threw together the most talented players?" If Toronto wins two cups in the next four years did they always have winning culture or did they get it when they won? There are lots of ways to win a cup but generally depth rules all.

I'm not saying leadership means nothing but it's not generally an inherent trait to an individual. A free agent is coming into a new locker room with new dynamics and without the support he had with his last team. What worked in St. Louis didn't mean much in Toronto and may not do anything with whoever ROR signs for today. He's still a somewhat useful player but looked very slow with the Leafs. I'd be extremely wary of giving him term, he feels like a quick regression candidate to me. The last thing you want is a $5m 4th line centre holding your good young team back from adding a top four defencemen in two years.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

every guitar guy has to sign in Nashville at some point. It's the law.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007


boy is that ever a rangers signing

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Like he's not great but for 800k lol

He was still on like a 65 point pace last year. That's an incredible deal.

OEL got $2.25m after he got an even bigger buyout

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Jackets signed Fantilli. I guess he was one and done with college.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Eric the Mauve posted:

Honestly shocked the Pens didn't outbid the Rangers for Quick

He's made all the money he'll ever want. He signed with his boyhood favourite team.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Korpisalo 5 years $20m with the Sens.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

s close to the family

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

DSP got huge. Man is enjoying his retirement.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Look when you can sign friends of Connor (Caggiula, Brown), you fuckin do it

Expecting a Zack Kassian deal!!!

Travis Dermott is available too!

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

grack posted:

Right what the gently caress is Nashville doing?

Rebuild is over, they're going for it

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Koopa Kid posted:

Wild to me that people were still touting his draft pedigree and saying that he could still be a top-4 defender at the start of last season. Great poster child for always asking yourself “what does this guy actually do?” when someone puts up a pretty blue chart about a small 3rd-pair guy with no points.

He got a giant, career ruining concussion with the Canucks. He looked fine but unremarkable when he was healthy. He's a #7 if his brain gets fixed.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

supposedly Blueger and Ian Cole to the Canucks on one year deals which is... surprisingly reserved?

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Is Ian Cole the sexual assaulter that the nhl tweeted about

Oh yeah he is. I'm not happy with the person but at least it's not 3 years like people were saying

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

CBJSprague24 posted:

He's the one who cheated on his wife with the cute, redheaded, engaged ice level reporter in Carolina if that's who you're thinking.

He was also accused of grooming a highschool girl. The league's investigation into it was "well we DM'd her on twitter and she didn't respond. Case dismissed."

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

woof 2 years $7.75m for Orlov

I guess they're gonna move off Pesce?

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Lol wonder if that kills the Tony Deal

Lebrun just said that it will still go through on the 9th

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

grack posted:

Canucks get Blueger at 1x1.9m

I like that

They don't have a right handed centre yet again but otherwise that's fine and reasonable. I wish allvin knew about guys that aren't former Pens or folks Dave Millstein tells him to sign.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

I am mostly happy with what the Canucks did yesterday which is a bizarre feeling for this team on July 1st.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

clean ayers act posted:

my take on the red wings signings is that steve yzerman has decided the wings should permanently finish 10th in the east.

He seemed like he knew exactly what he was doing until yesterday

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

eXXon posted:

You mean $6M because Muzzin is perma LTIR.

You really don't want to be cutting into LTIR too severely if you can avoid it. So the Leafs should probably budget ~$4m to round out their roster at most. Reaves isn't very useful but his salary can almost entirely be buried. Klingberg was a puzzling use of $4m as I genuinely have no idea what he brings to the Leafs that they don't already have in spades.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

grack posted:

Thoughts on Canucks Free Agency so far:

Agreed, all these signings are perfectly sensible and defensible. I'm not super wild about Soucy as he's a guy I've literally never noticed play the sport of hockey in any way but I can live with that contract I guess. Otherwise, one year deals are primo.

Overall, I'm not sure if they're really improved enough to be any different from the last few seasons. The god awful mushy middle where they'll pick 9th - 14th forever. Currently, they'll be going into the playoffs with a D core of:

Hughes - Cole
Soucy - Hronek
Wolanin(?) - Myers
Hirose - Juulsen

Which would be the worst top eight to qualify for the playoffs in the history of the sport. It's not the worst D core in the league anymore (maybe) but it would definitely be the worst in the playoffs if they made it. They'll have to play someone on their off side in the top four because they have literally one NHL quality right shot defenceman. Their only hope is that Filip Johansson or Cole McWard suddenly emerges as a top 4 guy that can play 23 minutes a night with Hughes which is uhhh quite unlikely.

Their forward group is basically the same sans Bo Horvat going gangbusters, so really worse by a fair margin. All their top six is in their primes so there's no real expectation of a step forward from anyone. So realistically this is another treading water year short of a miracle. Not bad enough to be in the running for Celebrini, not good enough to have a realistic hope at the playoffs unless you're one of the many sycophants that flock to this team.

So this is most likely another wasted year at a time when they have to convince Pettersson to stay. I'd say most likely they miss the playoffs and then it's a tall order to get their star to sign long term. If he doesn't they'll finally have to be serious about a rebuild a year from now having passed on the chance to draft back to back home grown first overall picks.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

They are falling victim to the exact same thing they did last year: believing a strong second final third of the season was the true representation of the team, not the horrendous first two thirds. Thing is that both times they've relied on the ability to score their way out of bigger problems while having star level goaltending. Fool me one etc etc

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Domi, Nylander and Bertuzzi? The Leafs of twenty years ago are stacked.

VOTE1 posted:

You are likely right about the mushy middle, the one area that might make a real difference is if the PK can be fixed. Apparently the pickups are mostly good on the PK (I’m not going to pretend I look at the lineups and systems of other teams PK’s), if you can fix the PK to even league average that’s probably 5 games last year they would have won.

Obviously that’s not enough to win a cup, but with a better Demko and good injury luck I think they can make the playoffs.

That’s a lot of ifs to have a 35% chance in a round 1 playoff matchup..

It's a big jump to go from "a partial percentage point over literally the worst penalty kill ever" to "league average." Even under the supposedly vastly improved structure of Tocchet, they were only 21st in the league playing mostly tanking teams. The penalty kill is important, but you're looking at a 10-15GA improvement in a perfect world. That would still leave them significantly underwater in terms of goal differential. Considering something like six teams have made the playoffs since the lockout with a negative goal differential, they're in tough. More likely they see moderate improvement but are still solidly bottom third on the PK.

To me it comes down to the fact that they're banking on the play under Tocchet to be representative of the team's true ability. But that's exactly what happened with Boudreau and it turns out once the new coach bump was gone they went back to all their bad habits and startlingly lack of depth. I deluded myself once, it'll take a lot to convince me it won't happen again.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Eric the Mauve posted:

I think the Leafs are probably going to part ways with Nylander. If it were me and I could only keep one of the big three I'd move Matthews though. I don't think his wrist is ever going to get anything but worse.

That's a mighty big bet to take. He's a year removed from a sixty goal Hart trophy season. Imagine the Pens had given up on Sid after his second concussion. I tend to believe that star players find a way and can recover fully when they're young enough to do so. Moving off Matthews would be giving up on arguably the most talented Leaf ever after one down season.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Diet Crack posted:

So is Colorado actively trying to get worse or what

I think they've done a decent job considering they have a bunch of big money deals and Landeskog out long term. Drouin for $850k is as safe a bet to exceed his cap hit as you can make. The Miles Wood deal is three years too long but at $2.5m that's again a good cap hit. RyJo for $4m is still an effective player. I liked the Ross Colton trade. Their defence is still deep as hell and it's not like they're asking Johnson to be anything more than their #7. I think they're having a good summer and I'd put them at a strong cup contender, among the top two or three.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

If there's anything the past few years have taught us, it's that wingers of all sorts are entirely valueless and not worth signing.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Koopa Kid posted:

You joke but there’s always someone

All the VIRTANEN jerseys vanished from the crowd at Rogers Arena real fast

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

I like that it took him 60 years to learn that some people have different communication styles.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

AntiDepressor posted:

Imagine getting a first and a third for a third line center who can’t stick and then turning those picks around immediately into a worse player who is just taking up roster space at this point. The Bergevin experience!

I always found that trade so bizarre. There was no talk of them keeping the picks. No discussion of any other player. Nothing approaching a negotiation. It was just "we will immediately trade both picks for Christian Dvorak." What a process that was.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

I can't believe the Canucks turned Hamonic into the other Elias Pettersson who's a legitimate prospect after a great season in Sweden.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007


Mediocre wingers haven't had any value in years. It amazes me when teams say "why won't anyone trade for our marginal top six winger?" It's because every team has a thousand marginal top six wingers so don't bother paying anything more than league min or just above. The Canucks may well have to waive one of Boeser or Garland and assign them to the AHL as they'll likely clear.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

rex rabidorum vires posted:

And yet Kasperi Kapanen gets claimed. The NHL is a land of contrasts.

He was really good in St. Louis because this sport is nonsense (or you were slightly blinded by hate, one of the two).

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Kasperi is love Rex.

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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Sabres really, really should be playing Levi in the AHL this year and probably next year too. They get nothing out of moving him straight to the NHL. The prevailing wisdom is you need about 2500-3000 saves at the pro level before you have a clear understanding of a guy's talent. It's best to get that in the minors where the talent is lower and the pressure is less. Gibson is probably signed a couple years too long, but he's pretty close to exactly what they should be looking for as a team that wants to contend for the playoffs while simultaneously developing their blue chip goalie prospect. Sorta like Demko under Markstrom.

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