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Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
What makes Lance weirder is that even when he was drafted I remember people saying it'd probably take a few years for him to get it together. So I'm not really down on him because he's kinda sucked, because everyone expected him to kinda suck at first, but it's up in the air whether all the missed time means either he's lost a crucial period of development that you just can't recover from or if a change of scenery & more consistent playing time would allow him to figure out the things he should've been figuring out the last couple of years.

I can still imagine a world where out of nowhere 27 year old Trey Lance is pretty good, but I think it'd require the kinda Steve Young path Shanahan was suggesting for Darnold

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Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Play posted:

Yeah almost all those 'off' throws (from memory, haven't rewatched the game) were high-anticipation prayers falling back with a free rusher incoming. First drive was a bit scary since missing throws like that is fine, turning the ball over isn't and he nearly did that a few times. But I thought he got better at handling the constant blitzing as the game went on, like the near touchdown to McCaffrey and the actual touchdown to Deebo were both those kind of throws.

Not that he was anywhere near perfect mind you, he definitely missed some throws he should've made.

Yeah, I think he made a couple of iffy decisions early and his ball placement wasn't on point but on the plus side, I feel like the Giants going all kamikaze pass rush on a short week were trying to create much more disastrous results from a young QB than some erratic ball placement. So there's something to be said for him composing himself, recognizing they were trying to kill him, and just getting the ball to his various YAC monsters before they could succeed, even if he's capable of better on some of the throws themselves.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
"Brock actually takes and hits shots outside the numbers and it made the offense way better pretty much immediately" is basically something I've been torturing everyone within earshot with for nearly a year now, so I appreciate having some backup.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I wasn't expecting the usual supernatural efficiency what with the opponent and the weather and on the road and all that but I was expecting the team to still look like they know how to play football. It's been a minute since I've seen this team look so out of sorts and I have to say: I prefer the other way they'd been doing things.

Brock stunk today and fair is fair so I will accept a week of "Brock Turdy" with grace but I'm not really concerned, a young QB will sometimes be bad against a top defense in bad weather. My cope of choice is that I'm glad his first real bad game was mostly erratic throws when he's generally very accurate, instead of freaking out and making a million terrible decisions.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Incidentally the last time Purdy led a potential game-winning two-minute drive was against the Raiders last year and Robbie Gould missed a 41 yard field goal (tie game though, won in OT)

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I can understand just about any loss in the NFL because it's just that stupid but how do you allow a billion yard a carry and not sack Kirk Cousins

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
This time last year the Niners dropped to 3-4 after getting cut up by Marcus Mariota and then totally thrashed by the Chiefs so while I haven't enjoyed these last two games very much either, I think we should keep some perspective and wait to panic until after losing to Cincinnati

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
There's so much small sample/health/luck variance in football that there are worse things to be than good enough to take advantage if something stupid happens, like three Super Bowls per decade are won by a team like that

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
The picks were backbreakers with the game still up for grabs so I think it's fine to give Purdy his portion of blame and feel generally grouchy about another ugly loss but it's been so funny to spend the day combing comment threads and stuff and seeing people go "no way. dealbreaker. not the guy. we need to move on NOW" and understand they're calling for Sam Darnold

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I think the Niners must've come out of camp/preseason with a pretty concrete sense that they could win a game(s) with Darnold if necessary or they would've just kept Trey around and kept wishing upon a star that he'd come together.

It wouldn't surprise me if Shanny is 100% sincere in thinking Darnold has some late bloomer potential, nothing about those Jets teams looks like a great development environment, and it wouldn't really surprise me if he was fine. Regardless of how he plays (if he plays) I'm still pretty skeptical of the whole QB doesn't matter under Shanahan stuff, what with the six year hunt for a QB he was remotely satisfied with and all. I do think Shanny's great at finding a guy's ceiling but I do think it requires the guy to have a ceiling. If Darnold shows something it'll be because he's capable of something, not just "Shanahan's a magician."

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Shindragon posted:

Like he has to go. Time and time again 49ers been giving uo big rear end yards and long rear end qb runs

53 first downs the last two weeks

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I'm concerned about the suicidal tendencies the Niners offense has suddenly developed, but they averaged like 8 yards per play today, so going forward if they could just stop shooting themselves in the face I think they will be fine.

Meanwhile the defense is trying this "bend don't break" thing where they bend all the way to their own 10 and I do not think that's gonna be good in the long run no matter what the offense does. Like the offense has to be better on the 2-3 plays where their brain is falling out. The defense has to be better on the 60 where they look like they're playing with ten men.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I am NOT lostseason.txt and in fact am predicting the Thanksgiving turnaround, but they have been very annoying these last three weeks.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

MakaVillian posted:

Yeah, it's definitely more about scheme so far. Having said that, another legit pass rusher opposite Bosa helps compensate for the poor scheme by just having more talent.

Edit: It's nice that it happened on the bye week too, to give Young more time to acclimate.

Yeah a lot of the problem with the pass rush, aside from those plays where they've had like three chances in one play to sack Cousins/Burrows and somehow didn't, is someone's getting wide open in like two seconds. Not that I'm complaining about bringing in Young at all but it doesn't seem like a problem you fix with more pass rushers.

That said, if they do figure out the back end, and the tackling gets back to normal such that they actually force some 3rd & longs and can just tee off, the pass rush will be scary as hell. It wasn't too long ago this D was looking dominant so I think they have it in them, but this bye heading into Jacksonville is so crucial. If Trevor Lawrence trots out there and has a career day too, I will be full lostseason.txt.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

trilljester posted:

Nobody cares, but my fantasy team would be very happy if one Tyler Lockett would catch many passes and touchdowns against the Washington Football Team on Sunday.

Also, just checking in with my Faithful Goons, how do we feel about this Sunday? Will the real Niners show up again, or are we going to get the fraud team we've seen the past few weeks?

I'm just really nervous, ugly losing streaks when you actually have expectations are no fun at all

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I enjoyed the viewing experience and the result.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Mustached Demon posted:

It was great viewing up until they put the ravens browns on instead.

Honestly, that was a pretty good watch too.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

MakaVillian posted:

:hmmyes:

Great game in all 3 phases, especially the 2nd half. Run defence was exceptional, Hargrave showed up big time and wow Chase Young was as advertised.

Yeah, plus it seemed like Lawrence basically never had his first guy wide open, unlike Burrow and Cousins. The Niners secondary doesn't have to be incredible, they just have to not lose instantly, because I don't think a lot of pockets are gonna hold up for very long against this d-line (HOT TAKE).

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
It doesn't explain the actual throw but Purdy said in his presser that what he wanted was for Kittle to head towards the sideline/back corner, but when he gestured to the middle to try and bluff the defense Kittle thought he was serious. Which at least explains why Purdy didn't initially scramble and why everyone was bunched up in a really terrible spot.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I guess there are worse things than bending-not-breaking to the tune of 14 points allowed but that was really pushing it.

Offense was awesome except at killing clock, I don't think you could hand me a check for $10 million and make me happier than that Aiyuk TD.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Shindragon posted:

THANK YOU RAMS

Always loved those guys, Same Old Kick rear end Rams, I say

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
https://twitter.com/nwagoner/status/1726640589289226595

small sample size etc on Brock but Jimmy, your deep ball, woof

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

mllaneza posted:

The TD to Aiyuk was 42 yards in the air. Jimmy G doesn't have Aiyuk in his reads on that play, let alone attempt that pass, if Shanahan even has that route installed this week. There are QBs who complete passes with more air under them, but again, small sample size. Purdy has a lot of arm and might have more than he showed on that pass.

Jimmy might attempt it but it goes ten yards OOB

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
It was 1 on 1 to his best receiver with the other teams #1 corner out, of course he should've thrown it

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Lock at least played like he was trying to move the ball. If he'd done the turtle up, 150 yards no picks thing Seattle probably don't cover and then where would they be. I agree, he's not good, but I think more than a couple of teams would like a bad QB that at least crosses the 50 from time-to-time.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Shanahan's great but sometimes people act like he invented the crossing route. It's not like some college one-read thing, Purdy has responsibilities to see things pre- and post-snap and make good throws and decisions, he has to be good at things that bad QBs are bad at. The offense would still probably be good with a bad QB and if you think that just means there's a cap on how much value he can be providing that's fine, but he is actually doing things to make it work as well as it does.

I think part of the thing is there's like three camps:

1. Purdy MVP #1 baby
2. Purdy's pretty good but inflated by environment/has less relative importance and therefore not MVP
3. Purdy is ten spots behind Kyler Murray

and 2/3 get conflated but they're very different things.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I obviously don't fully agree with a lot of anti-Purdy arguments but I do understand where they're coming from. Shanahan QB inflation, a run-heavy offense, lots of skill position talent, all that stuff is stuff to think about and I get why people would have a different conclusion than I do. And you throw in the "what do we mean by value" stuff that afflicts every MVP argument in every sport and of course there's gonna be a lot of disagreement. I like to defend Purdy's general honor as a good QB but I really don't care if other people have a preferred MVP choice (and like I've said, I'm a CMC guy.)

So I really admire this Ben Solak guy for making a video about it and his case starts with "here's a 54 yard TD to his fourth option, but in order to make this happen he had to read the defense"

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

shirts and skins posted:

Well I can say one thing for sure

Easton Stick is *not* the MVP

Just as I predicted, without Todd Bonzalez, Sleve McDichael, and Mike Truk to carry him, he's wilting.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I'm pretty sure something like that would be location-based and not log-in based, but Cowboys-Dolphins is the late window Fox game for every market outside of Phoenix/Chicago, so you should be getting that regardless.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
6-1 with a loss to the ravens post bye isn't so bad but did the niners find ways to make that 1 so ugly

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
There were a couple bad breaks but those just tip it (har har) into embarrassing territory, it was an rear end-kicking on merit.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
What needs to happen is the Niners need to go on another 3 game losing streak and then they'll be unbeatable for a month, just in time for the playoffs. This would cost them home field but again, unbeatable, not important.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I don't know enough to have an opinion about him tactically or in-game management or anything but everytime I've seen the Cardinals they've opened up surprisingly competitive before lack of talent catches up to them. So it seems like you could do worse, if you accept the Cards were in no position for a one year miracle turnaround

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Dutchy posted:

I don't know enough to have an opinion about him tactically or in-game management or anything but everytime I've seen the Cardinals they've opened up surprisingly competitive before lack of talent catches up to them. So it seems like you could do worse, if you accept the Cards were in no position for a one year miracle turnaround

I'd like to retract this post and demand a lifetime extension for 49ers legend Jonathan Gannon

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

Carillon posted:

I feel like Purdy just isn't a good QB in the weather. Look back at other games in pouring rain and I think he's pretty similarly? Maybe I'm missing something but he didn't look like he usually does accuracy wise and very much looked like rain-Purdy.

Yeah I think Brock throwing in the rain has to be a real concern. The games where he's thrown interceptions got a lot of press but tonight and Cleveland I think were much worse overall, every checkdown feeling like an adventure is a lot more troubling to me than good good good good good good oh gently caress experience of say the Minnesota game.

That said that early dropped INT was the only time I was shaking my head over his decision making, at least that I can recall. Like his other lesser games, I didn't come out this really down on him or anything.



I don't mind as much as some people when the Niners have a pass happy game plan, but someone in the GDT said something like Kyle has terminal "they'll never see this coming" brain and I feel like that is bang on. The Niners have had drives where they just hang out in the shotgun, throw seven straight passes and score a TD, but he tries it against like, the Ravens pass defense, and in a downpour playoff game. Just way over-thinking it.


Heading into the game my big worry is the Niners D would get cooked on the ground and give up big long drives that would shorten the game and basically create a situation where the game might hinge on 1 or 2 TOs. That's pretty much what happened but thankfully the long drives were typically FGs and the Niners got the TOs. Not an inspiring performance but sometimes you just have to accidentally win a game you're playing like complete garbage in.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Also the nature of their mistakes is just really frustrating, just a lot of missed tackles and wide open cutback lanes and penalties and it's all very annoying. They've buckled down in key spots and it's been enough and it's to their credit, but you can't help but suspect there's a more dominant unit in there somewhere that we've hardly seen a hint of since Thanksgiving or so

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Most valuable WR3 in NFL history is pushing it but on a team that more frequently ran 3 WR sets I can definitely envision Jennings doing that thing Bobby Engram used to do where he catches like 50 balls for 650 yards and 90 first downs somehow

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I think there's blame to go around on specific plays/decisions but really IMO it was a boring ol' lost it in the trenches kind of thing. For about three quarters the o-line was just disintegrating immediately. The Niners probably win with a favorable bounce or two, they probably don't need a favorable bounce or two if Chris Jones isn't eating their lunch.

Anyway,


I found this a really stressful season for some reason, the most anxious I've been about sports fandom since the Mavs title run probably (don't ask how Niners + Mavs happened, it just did), and don't even get the drat title at the end. poo poo.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

YOLOsubmarine posted:

I think if the muffed punt hadn’t happened something else would have. God abhors a vacuum and now that to Patriots are dead the Chiefs have risen to take their place as the team that is simply destined to win it all, more often than not.

*in the weakest, most sorrowful voice imaginable* This.

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Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I don't really have a problem with Shanahan's playcalling in terms of run/pass balance but I think you could argue he should've worked in a couple of RB screens or something to A) get CMC some space and B) give the rush something to think about. During that mid-game offensive lull, it seemed like first down plays were limited to either a hopeless run into traffic or a play action pass where the line had melted before Purdy could even finish the play fake. And then it'd be like 2nd & 18 and 3rd & 11 and poo poo and there are no good options, especially against a really good DB group. That said, "run until they start stacking boxes and setup some PA shots" was basically what I was hoping to see so there's a lotta hindsight to this complaint. If McKivitz even exists as a physical, material presence between Chris Jones and the QB a few times, they probably hit a couple and win.

Not running at the two minute warning is arguable but I don't mind it, the Chiefs got in FG range in like a minute anyway and getting a first down was the only way to make sure Mahomes doesn't get any kind of shot.

Kicking a FG in OT I think is fine, taking the ball is not. I'm not sure why they did that unless they literally just didn't know the playoff rule (which tbf I'd forgotten about until the broadcast said it).

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