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If there were an actual formula for October baseball then we'd see teams clustering around said formula. But that's not what happens. Sometimes it's the 2015 Royals with 3 lights-out pen arms and elite defense. Sometimes it's the 2019 Nationals with like literally 4 pitchers they trust who somehow pitch every game that matters. Sometimes it's the 2022 Astros with a lineup that simply refuses to strike out while also hitting for power. Sometimes it's the 2021 Braves with an outfield of Random Dudes they picked up at the deadline who play out of their mind for a month. Sometimes David Eckstein wins World Series MVP. Sometimes a rookie with a 5.72 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, and negative WAR gives up just 2 runs in 9.2 innings. There is no formula. It's just a chaotic tournament that can be fun as hell because of that chaos. This is something that we all (people who follow baseball) fundamentally know. I just wish the culture around the sport also recognized this to some small degree, and I think the soccer model offers a view of a different culture that does this better. bawfuls fucked around with this message at 05:48 on Oct 25, 2023 |
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Oct 25, 2023 05:44
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R.D. Mangles posted:my formula for winning october baseball is having This is just the Twins and it didn't turn out so well in the second round
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Oct 25, 2023 06:18
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R.D. Mangles posted:my formula for winning october baseball is having So, for the Cubs in 2016 that would have been: - Arrieta and Lester - Hendricks - Kris Bryant - Rizzo, Zobrist and Fowler - Contreras and Baez - Heyward - Montero - Cahill, Wood and Strop ?
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Oct 25, 2023 06:19
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R.D. Mangles posted:my formula for winning october baseball is having 
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Oct 25, 2023 06:37
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Timby posted:So, for the Cubs in 2016 that would have been: Wrong, Heyward has an 80 Locker Room Speech tool.
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Oct 25, 2023 06:51
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Baseball is just too random in small sample sizes (like the playoffs) to ever really be predictable. Even the 2001 Mariners lost 46 games in the regular season. They had a 4 game losing streak during the regular season, went to game 5 in the ALDS vs a team that won 25 less games than them and got their asses handed to them 4-1 in the ALCS vs a team that won 21 less games than them.
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Oct 25, 2023 10:26
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Intruder posted:they also had trea turner Trea Turner is dogshit garbage
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Oct 25, 2023 12:03
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the formula for winning playoff baseball is not go back to craig kimbrel one night after him demonstrating to the whole rear end world that his arm is shot to hell
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Oct 25, 2023 17:15
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bawfuls posted:mcmagic is correct that an 84-win negative run differential team should not ever be in position to play in a world series, but the time for that particular objection was at the end of september The Cubs went 1-6 against the DBacks in September so it's kinda hard to argue that they deserved it more because they had a much better run differential.
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Oct 25, 2023 17:16
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shyduck posted:the formula for winning playoff baseball is not go back to craig kimbrel one night after him demonstrating to the whole rear end world that his arm is shot to hell it's crazy because he still throws 97 and that wicked slider, but guys are just teeing off on him like it's BP, 2023 baseball is nuts.
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Oct 25, 2023 17:19
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bawfuls posted:The Dodgers won with two aces one of whom was in fact Clayton Kershaw 2020 wasnt a real World Series lol
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Oct 25, 2023 17:22
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A Buffer Gay Dude posted:2020 wasnt a real World Series lol It involved the Rays choking it away horribly that is pretty real to me
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Oct 25, 2023 17:25
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Kershaw not having to pitch in front of a crowd and finally “getting it done” is just the funniest thing
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Oct 25, 2023 17:26
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shyduck posted:the formula for winning playoff baseball is not go back to craig kimbrel one night after him demonstrating to the whole rear end world that his arm is shot to hell It's funny how we got the Cash/Thomson meme with the "lol gonna put kimbrel in" thing but the meaning has changed completely since before the NLCS
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Oct 25, 2023 18:49
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I'll eventually let go of the bats going cold in Games 6/7. I'm not all that mad about it, just disappointed, and it'll pass. Game 4 is etched in my brain and is probably the most incredulous I've ever been as a sports fan. It was a slow motion train wreck, and everybody, EVERYBODY, saw what was happening (well except for Thomson), from the moment Sanchez was yanked prematurely onward. Maybe this is why I'm handling things better today around here than perhaps most, because I think I knew deep down that was where they gave it all away. shyduck fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Oct 25, 2023 |
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Oct 25, 2023 19:53
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Intruder posted:thinking about rocktober and how when the magic wore off the rockies got absolutely demolished by the sox Look at that pitching staff lmao: Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez Miracle they even won a series never mind two
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Oct 25, 2023 20:07
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Nodoze posted:Look at that pitching staff lmao: Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez DO NOT talk poo poo about josh fogg
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Oct 25, 2023 21:21
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A Buffer Gay Dude posted:2017 wasnt a real World Series lol 
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Oct 25, 2023 22:17
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list of real world series (modern era) - 1972-1974, 1989, 2001, 2003, 2016, ????
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Oct 25, 2023 23:13
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1955, 1957, 1960, 1963, 1964, 1976, 1981, 2001, 2003
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Oct 25, 2023 23:26
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2016,
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Oct 26, 2023 00:38
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maffew buildings posted:list of real world series (modern era) - 1972-1974, 1989, 2001, 2003, 2016, ???? 89 was made invalid by a natural disaster. 88 was much more legit
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Oct 26, 2023 01:28
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2011 was real good and funny too.
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Oct 26, 2023 20:28
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actually the record clearly shows 2011 was a national tragedy and extremely bad
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Oct 27, 2023 21:34
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I’m a week late as I was on vacation at the right time. Leave after Altuve’s homer, didn’t watch a second of either blowout. This year’s Astros team could hardly be described as bad. Their shortcomings this year simply boiled down to regression and injuries. While you could point to a few suboptimal moves and roster decisions throughout the year, Dusty was pretty low on the list of problems. I doubt that Dusty was telling every pitcher to walk more guys and give up more dingers. Regression: The biggest reason the Astros went from a 106 win team that cruised through the playoffs to a 90 win team that flamed out at the end of the ALCS was guys that played well last year simply didn’t this year, at least not consistently. Framber and Javier were both terrible for stretches. JV (who we’ll just pretend that Mets stint didn’t happen) had some small regression you’d expect with his age, but was far less pronounced than the other two. Hunter Brown’s arm could not withstand his first full season. On the hitting side, last year’s rookie sensation Jeremy Peña hit the sophomore slump hard and was arguably a worse bat than Maldy by September. Maldy himself regressed to a permanently sub-Mendoza hitter and lost the last of his defense as well. I’m very skeptical that he actually had the ability to “call a game” better than an average MLB catcher based on the SP performances this year. Injuries: The season began with Altuve on the shelf from a broken thumb sustained at the end of the WBC. He came back for about a week, then immediately missed another month with an oblique strain. Yordan missed nearly 2 months with an oblique strain as well. Brantley didn’t see the field until the season was nearly over. All played great when healthy, so it’s hard to imagine that both of them missing extended time early in the season cost some games that would’ve made the home stretch easier to manage. Jose Abreu played hurt for way too long and was dreadful the first half of the season. On the pitching side, Luis Garcia earned his TJS rite of passage very early in the season. Lance McCullers did not even get his usual 3 month furlough from the IL this year. Montero got a massive contract as a bullpen guy and immediately reminded everyone why few bullpen arms get such deals. Positives: The bullpen was still mostly good despite Montero. Bryan Abreu and Pressly have been consistent for multiple seasons and will be back next year. Extended playing time for Dubon showed he’s a viable bottom of the order guy instead of a “why does he ever see the field guy” as he seemed last year. Yainer Diaz came out of nowhere to show a ton of promise as a future catcher. Chas McCormick showed he can be an everyday player. Corey Julks flashed some potential early and could well be a major league player with a bit more seasoning. JP France was a nice surprise filling in at SP. He was never expected to be in that role, so no one should be mad that his arm couldn’t hold up all year. Overall, this is just a slightly down year for a good core. There is no reason to not run it back with mostly the same group. Trust that the off-season and right coaching will help Framber, Cristian, and Jeremy bounce back. Please lock Kyle Tucker down. Maybe sign a value outfield bat so Dubon isn’t overexposed. Sign whatever pen guys you need. It doesn’t matter who takes the manager job in the slightest. The team performed equally under Hinch and Dusty. Just let Dana Brown steer the ship and keep Grigori Bagwell out of Crane’s ear.
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Oct 28, 2023 17:49
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bawfuls posted:Can you give an example of this? Not as in a specific team that won 100 and sucked poo poo in October (obvious) but an example of team traits that would predictably lead to 100 wins but also predictable fail in October. Building an offense around slow position players all aiming to hit home runs but who cannot move around the bases at all. Get a guy on 1B -> Hit a 2-run homerun off some team's 4-5th starter and solo shots galore will win 80-100 games and will get absolutely dominated in the first two rounds when you just see the top 3 starters and top half of the opposition's bullpen.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:45
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But you basically described the Phillies who have been really successful the last two postseasons.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:51
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Blind Pineapple posted:I’m very skeptical that he actually had the ability to “call a game” better than an average MLB catcher based on the SP performances this year. Even if they think Maldy's game calling abilities are elite there's no reason they can't hire him as a coach and have him call games from the dugout (although that would require actual signs, I don't think you're allowed to use pitchcom from the dugout?)
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Oct 29, 2023 05:08
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The Phillies were strikeout prone all season long and it feels like the book is out on them now. I don't think they need to anything crazy yet with the roster yet, the window is still wide open, but maybe they can start by trying someone new at leadoff again. Give Stott a crack at it again and stick with it. No disrespect to Schwarber but trying to solo shot your way to a chip is just not gonna happen
shyduck fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Oct 30, 2023 |
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Oct 30, 2023 21:08
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Schwarber had a perfectly find OBP this year, I thought the whole point of him batting leadoff was that he walks a ton and has a good eye He had 126 walks this season
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Oct 30, 2023 21:18
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True contract hitters in the vein of guys like Boggs and Gwynn just don't exist in the numbers they used to. Launch angles and hit velocity has ruined that mindset
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Oct 30, 2023 21:19
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MrMidnight posted:True contract hitters in the vein of guys like Boggs and Gwynn just don't exist in the numbers they used to. Launch angles and hit velocity has ruined that mindset launch angle aka "hit line drives" and exit velocity aka "hit them hard" have been the gameplan for contact hitters literally forever. ted williams talks about it in the science of hitting. there is more focus on home runs now, especially in the postseason, because pitchers are very good at getting strikeouts, because a strikeout is an "unproductive out". it's harder to string together a few hits in an inning to drive in runs, so home runs become a more reliable way of scoring. this isn't "players are too dumb to hit for average like they used to" it's "in the current era of baseball, power is more valuable for scoring runs than it was 40 years ago"
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Oct 30, 2023 21:25
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Launch angle is about turning line drives into fly balls so that when you hit them hard they go over the fence instead of into it
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Oct 30, 2023 21:40
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Intruder posted:Schwarber had a perfectly find OBP this year, I thought the whole point of him batting leadoff was that he walks a ton and has a good eye My intention wasn't to sleight Schwarber, but I just feel like they can get more out of this team.
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Oct 30, 2023 22:15
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Stott's OBP was .747 compared to Schwarber's .817, plus he hit into 6 more double plays, and hit 32 fewer home runs, with 44 fewer RBIs and 87 fewer walks. Now, it should be noted that Stott and Schwarber had DID have the same number of ABs, but Schwarbs had 80 more PAs, which is notable because Schwarbs was only up roughly the amount of times more one would expect given he appeared in more games, but he was more productive and made fewer outs even though he struck out nearly twice the number of times Stott did. Hell, he was even IBB'd five times vs. Stott's once. There's no universe where Stott and Schwarber's batting contributions are similar unless you're looking solely at strikeouts. Now, if you want to talk about how Schwarber is a loving boat anchor of a fielder vs Stott, there you've got an argument.
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Oct 30, 2023 22:53
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The season is over. Here’s the full list of losing teamsMiz Kriss posted:
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Nov 3, 2023 02:45
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TIMELINE OF LOSERS
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Miz Kriss posted:The season is over. Here’s the full list of losing teams Mariners still in it. Refuse to Lose, baby!
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Nov 3, 2023 03:22
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The real losers: Fox Sports
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Nov 3, 2023 03:45
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If it was easier to watch, I'd watch more of it. I'll accept my consulting fee, Fox.
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Nov 3, 2023 03:58
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The real winner is Madison Bumgarner
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Nov 3, 2023 04:04
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