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The polls have been really loving close this whole time, even the left is infected with "it's nationals turn at the wheel" disease. Do the polls always poll the same set of people? If not, then I don't think any poll can describe a surge or decline over time, I don't know if it's reasonable to say things like "over the last week X has more support" it's just the cohort they happened to get this time supported X more - for small differences anyway. I guess a large change could be a sign of change
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Oct 13, 2023 22:15
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klen dool posted:The polls have been really loving close this whole time, even the left is infected with "it's nationals turn at the wheel" disease. I mean isn't the whole point of statistics to try to ensure that the population sample you take is representative of the population as a whole within some margins of error? Not that I'm saying I believe political polls, but more because there's incentive to fudge them by people with power and money, and less because it's impossible to determine average results from a representative sample.
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Oct 13, 2023 22:32
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Yeah they do random sampling and then correct for oversampling, like if they ended up with 55% of respondents in their sample being men they adjust the results accordingly based on their previous data around election results and polling data. That's why the longer running polls tend to be more trustworthy, because they have lots of historical data to norm stuff off. It's obviously far from a science and that's why they report margins of error and poo poo. There's an unavoidable inherent sampling bias around people who actually answer the phone and talk to a pollster which they have to try and correct for. It also relies on people doing what they claim over the phone, which is not the case - there are always going to be more people who can't be hosed actually going to vote, people tend to be a bit more conservative than they espouse, etc.
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Oct 13, 2023 22:41
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idk what NZ polls are doing but in the US they gotta cook the numbers because they only poll land lines and so get heavily overweighted to old people. based on the numbers they got from the old people with landlines, they then make two guesses: - what are the voting preferences of everybody else - are those people actually going to go vote or are they just whiners like weka
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Oct 13, 2023 22:48
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The two options, voting for a party which supports genocide or whining. I don't think anyone has to guess if I am going to vote bro.bike tory posted:lol this is some smooth brain poo poo alright IDK exactly what you are asking but it seems like the only candidates there who didn't express this this opinion were Grant Robertson and Abe Grey (TOP). bike tory posted:There's an unavoidable inherent sampling bias around people who actually answer the phone and talk to a pollster which they have to try and correct for. How would you even do this unless you can identify some other trait correlated with talking to pollsters, in which case you just correct for that.
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Oct 13, 2023 23:31
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Progressive JPEG posted:idk what NZ polls are doing but in the US they gotta cook the numbers because they only poll land lines and so get heavily overweighted to old people. based on the numbers they got from the old people with landlines, they then make two guesses: I think I heard on TV that they actually call mobile phones here, but no hard evidence to back that up as I've literally never been called by any poling group about anything (and I've never had a land line).
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Oct 13, 2023 23:33
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i got polled by curia during the flag referendum
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Oct 13, 2023 23:47
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I vote what weka shuts the gently caress up about genocide
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Oct 14, 2023 00:11
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klen dool posted:I vote what weka shuts the gently caress up about genocide 
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Oct 14, 2023 00:22
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a worm that actively made newzealand politics worse, pictured above quaint early-2000s tv graphics:
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Oct 14, 2023 04:42
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lol
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Oct 14, 2023 07:47
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Nice, Mt Albert splitting the vote 🙃
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Oct 14, 2023 07:49
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Lol and lmao
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Oct 14, 2023 07:55
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klen dool posted:I vote what weka shuts the gently caress up about genocide If you would like to fawn over liberal supporters of mass murder without pushback there is a forum for that. Personally I think foreign policy is very important, especially to a country like NZ so dependent on trade. Is there a party who thinks it's a bad idea to sail warships past the coast of our biggest trading partner with our dicks out?
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Oct 14, 2023 08:45
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Weka posted:If you would like to fawn over liberal supporters of mass murder without pushback there is a forum for that. Personally I think foreign policy is very important, especially to a country like NZ so dependent on trade. Well you don't have to worry because instead we're getting the parties most likely to do that, and also fall more in-line behind the USA.
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Oct 14, 2023 08:49
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Yeah luxon literally said "isreal has a right to defend itself" like the war criminal human genocide supporter he is
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Oct 14, 2023 08:50
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Weka posted:foreign policy is very important, especially to a country like NZ so dependent on trade. yeah, which is why nz won't and can't buck the trend in any more than the most trivial of ways
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Oct 14, 2023 09:17
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at the end of the day, labour chose to retain that political capital, and what else can I say except it’s paying dividends
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Oct 14, 2023 09:36
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bike tory posted:The same "batshit" Roy Morgan who were the closest to the actual result last time? bump ?
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Oct 14, 2023 09:36
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klen dool posted:Yeah luxon literally said "isreal has a right to defend itself" like the war criminal human genocide supporter he is maybe that's why he's winning? people seem to love that poo poo
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Oct 14, 2023 09:42
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CODChimera posted:maybe that's why he's winning? people seem to love that poo poo Nah it happened way to late in the election for it to have mattered
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Oct 14, 2023 09:47
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klen dool posted:Nah it happened way to late in the election for it to have mattered This is 100% because national are the *gestures vaguely at nothing* better economic stewards
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Oct 14, 2023 09:53
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It's because people feel like things aren't good and not getting much better so they want 'a change', nevermind what that change is.
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Oct 14, 2023 10:06
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Blackhawk posted:Well you don't have to worry because instead we're getting the parties most likely to do that, and also fall more in-line behind the USA. We've been doing it non-stop for the last 6 years. klen dool posted:Yeah luxon literally said "isreal has a right to defend itself" like the war criminal human genocide supporter he is So did Hipkins. "I think Israel is well within its rights to defend itself." https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/499758/hamas-invasion-and-israel-s-response-a-sequence-of-crimes
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Oct 14, 2023 10:32
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Weka posted:We've been doing it non-stop for the last 6 years. So loving what he's not gonna be the pm anymore so its irrelevant?
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Oct 14, 2023 10:56
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Brain In A Jar posted:This is 100% because national are the *gestures vaguely at nothing* better economic stewards Literally talked to someone a few hrs ago who voted national because they're better at the economy, it's a pervasive lie
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Oct 14, 2023 11:18
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exmarx posted:bump ? A factual post about the polling, and pollling has turned out to be inaccurate. exmarx posted:the greens split a bunch of electorates ? lol show me an electorate close enough that a green party candidate doing a party vote-only campaign would've made a difference
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Oct 14, 2023 12:46
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banks peninsula lol at nicola willis
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Oct 14, 2023 14:12
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exmarx posted:banks peninsula Greens ran party-only there last time and got about the same number of votes, with less of the party vote. exmarx posted:lol at nicola willis this one genuinely mystifies me, how the gently caress is O'Connor one of the ones to keep his seat
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Oct 14, 2023 18:42
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I'm disappointed that none of you voted hard enough, particularly when Hipkins spent the first few weeks of his campaign assuring us that he wasn't going to do anything meaningfully different if elected.
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Oct 14, 2023 19:34
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bike tory posted:Greens ran party-only there last time and got about the same number of votes, with less of the party vote. Greg is a very good candidate for that seat, just the perfect centrist candidate. A cop, but a union man. Bluff, honest exterior in that classic kiwi way. Very few other people could have defeated Dunne there. klen dool posted:So loving what he's not gonna be the pm anymore so its irrelevant? Two reasons, he will be PM for the next 3 weeks, while a great deal of the most visible parts of this genocide are happening. And because it means there is no government you could vote for that doesn't support genocide.
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Oct 14, 2023 19:38
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gently caress off weka you dumb oval office
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Oct 14, 2023 20:21
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Weka posted:Two reasons, he will be PM for the next 3 weeks, while a great deal of the most visible parts of this genocide are happening. And because it means there is no government you could vote for that doesn't support genocide. Yeah we get it, democratic electoral politics are a joke and anything short of destroying capitalism is at best shuffling deck chairs on the titanic, but what would you have anybody do about it? I'm hearing lots of complaining and not a lot of solutions here.
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Oct 14, 2023 21:05
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bike tory posted:this one genuinely mystifies me, how the gently caress is O'Connor one of the ones to keep his seat i think it's because willis campaigned on making thousands of ōhāriu residents jobless lol
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Oct 14, 2023 21:36
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now would be an incredible time for chris (old chris) to boot out the israeli ambassador and declare unconditional support for palestineBlackhawk posted:Yeah we get it, democratic electoral politics are a joke and anything short of destroying capitalism is at best shuffling deck chairs on the titanic, but what would you have anybody do about it? I'm hearing lots of complaining and not a lot of solutions here. we aren't allowed to discuss actual solutions on these forums
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Oct 14, 2023 22:23
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redleader posted:now would be an incredible time for chris (old chris) to boot out the israeli ambassador and declare unconditional support for palestine He could do that if he wasn't a lib that believes in nothing lol
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Oct 14, 2023 22:25
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Blackhawk posted:He could do that if he wasn't a lib that believes in nothing lol it's fun to imagine things 
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Oct 14, 2023 22:29
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Blackhawk posted:Yeah we get it, democratic electoral politics are a joke and anything short of destroying capitalism is at best shuffling deck chairs on the titanic, but what would you have anybody do about it? I'm hearing lots of complaining and not a lot of solutions here.
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Oct 14, 2023 23:14
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imo Chloe holding AKC is one of the more impressive results of the night. This visualisation shows why - it's arranged by right/left party vote and you can see AKC way over with the right-leaning electorates: I am obviously totally impartial and objective about this too.
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Oct 14, 2023 23:44
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looks like lockdowns were good for saving thousands of lives, bad for electoral success
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Oct 15, 2023 00:02
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