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Kalli posted:Yeah, which is why he was reportedly trying to lure Brady out of retirement this offseason. The moment Shanahan gets an elite QB, it's over for the league.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:31
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Grozz Nuy posted:Jared Goff has Ben Johnson calling plays for him and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs to carry the load on offense. Let's not pretend he isn't getting help from his supporting cast as well. Goff was very good last year when LaPorta and Gibbs weren’t on the team.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:42
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Goff was very good last year when LaPorta and Gibbs weren’t on the team. Goff has been putting up some numbers for a while. He earned a contract extension. Wonder what they do with Hooker.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:52
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Goff has been putting up some numbers for a while. He earned a contract extension. Wonder what they do with Hooker. Keep him on a rookie deal to be a cheap backup probably. Hooker wasn't some franchise QB take he was injured and old when they drafted him. He's there to lower the cap hit so Detroit can pay/find other players.
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Jan 26, 2024 18:17
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Pain of Mind posted:That is how I interpreted "overall" as well, but what is confusing me is that that statement true is for the examples I gave as well, but I must be interpreting the statement incorrectly since everyone is telling me so (without any playoff qualifiers). It's because you finished your statement with "first round picks are a dime a dozen," which I assume for other people implies that you are including any QB taken in the first round and not just QBs taken first overall.
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Jan 26, 2024 18:48
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The (Bryce) Young QB Thread - Tell me whether this fact is fun or not
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Jan 26, 2024 19:15
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IcePhoenix posted:It's because you finished your statement with "first round picks are a dime a dozen," which I assume for other people implies that you are including any QB taken in the first round and not just QBs taken first overall. I would think the specific examples I gave would override my imprecise wording, but it really does not matter enough to keep relitigating it.
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Jan 26, 2024 19:49
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Black Lighter posted:The (Bryce) Young QB Thread - Tell me whether this fact is fun or not Here's one: Purdy would have been better off had the Niners taken literally anyone else with that last pick and brought him in as a UDFA. The odds of him making it out of camp as a UDFA would have been no different than as Mr. Irrelevant, but he's signing either a one year deal or at most a three-year deal for the absolute minimum, basically what he's making now. The biggest difference is that with a three-year deal, he'd be looking to renegotiate after this season, when he's coming off either an MVP win or at least a very high finish. Instead Purdy got drafted and signed a four-year deal for the minimum and thus has to wait until after the '24 season to cash in, with the risk that he could get hurt and/or turn back into a pumpkin.
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Jan 26, 2024 21:32
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Purdy for Fields straight up. Who would take that?
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Jan 26, 2024 21:35
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OGS-Remix posted:Purdy for Fields straight up. Who would take that? Colin Cowherd.
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Jan 26, 2024 21:38
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C. Everett Koop posted:Here's one: Purdy would have been better off had the Niners taken literally anyone else with that last pick and brought him in as a UDFA. The odds of him making it out of camp as a UDFA would have been no different than as Mr. Irrelevant, but he's signing either a one year deal or at most a three-year deal for the absolute minimum, basically what he's making now. The biggest difference is that with a three-year deal, he'd be looking to renegotiate after this season, when he's coming off either an MVP win or at least a very high finish. Instead Purdy got drafted and signed a four-year deal for the minimum and thus has to wait until after the '24 season to cash in, with the risk that he could get hurt and/or turn back into a pumpkin. That along with worries that another team would go after him in the UDFA market is Lynch's stated reason for drafting him
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Jan 26, 2024 21:44
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A Sneaker Broker posted:The moment Shanahan gets an elite QB, it's over for the league. Part of me wonders if Brady had of signed in San Fran if he would have two more rings instead of one now you mention it.
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Jan 27, 2024 00:30
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BlindSite posted:Part of me wonders if Brady had of signed in San Fran if he would have two more rings instead of one now you mention it. With the roster they have now? He gets two rings minimum.
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Jan 27, 2024 01:17
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OGS-Remix posted:Purdy for Fields straight up. Who would take that? The way Fields holds onto the ball constantly would drive Kyle insane. The Shanahan system wants the QB to read and get the ball out quickly, Fields hasn't shown he can do that consistently at all in Chicago. If they had drafted him from the beginning maybe that wouldn't be the case, but we'll never know.
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Jan 27, 2024 05:42
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Maybe Shanahan and Campbell cracked the code on accident. Shanahan out of not being able to get a top QB, and Campbell out of being meathead-Rainman. In a league where defenses have become complex, suffocating, and impossible to read, complex high flying offenses don't work as well anymore. Wasting high draft picks or 25% of your cap on an elite QB isn't worthwhile, defenses finally caught up. The Lions and SF built offenses that have great running schemes, flat and slot throws, and great lines that work really well against defenses that have been built for 2 decades to beat complicated, long developing passing plays. I think having a bunch of playmakers that can turn short plays into chunks is a lot more important than a mastermind QB now. And having a QB that can just get the ball in one of very limited opening spots to a playmaker is good enough. imo
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Jan 27, 2024 06:34
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The boy geniuses like McVay and Shanahan can’t tell you what to do when the play breaks down. Having a QB that can create is a drat near necessity in today’s NFL.
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Jan 27, 2024 06:46
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The Niners are very much not a great pass blocking offensive line. Like not even a little bit, at all. They have exactly one positive lineman in pass protect.
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Jan 27, 2024 06:57
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Two, Banks is also good. He was just hurt for a good chunk of the year. It's the right side of the line that is a problem, that's gotta be a big priority for them in the draft this year.
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Jan 27, 2024 07:14
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vaginite posted:Maybe Shanahan and Campbell cracked the code on accident. Shanahan out of not being able to get a top QB, and Campbell out of being meathead-Rainman. In a league where defenses have become complex, suffocating, and impossible to read, complex high flying offenses don't work as well anymore. Wasting high draft picks or 25% of your cap on an elite QB isn't worthwhile, defenses finally caught up. Jared Goff was the #1 overall pick (who was traded up for) and has the third highest cap hit for a quarterback in 2023. When he got the current contract it had the most guaranteed money of all time. The fact that folks don't think he's elite, doesn't mean he's not being paid like an elite QB who signed a contract in 2019.
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Jan 27, 2024 07:25
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ_QE7bhL1s Field's stans need to realize this guy is going to make the Bears relevant again. I am sorry.
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Jan 27, 2024 07:28
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Shrimpy posted:Jared Goff was the #1 overall pick (who was traded up for) and has the third highest cap hit for a quarterback in 2023. When he got the current contract it had the most guaranteed money of all time. The fact that folks don't think he's elite, doesn't mean he's not being paid like an elite QB who signed a contract in 2019. Yeah he was the #1 traded up for pick for the Rams, and he was a bust - as far as the Rams are concerned. The Rams would have been much better off trading it down. He did have a huge cap hit to the Lions, but the Lions got a ton of trade for taking taking that salary dump. They traded Stafford for Goff and: A 2021 3rd: Ifeatu Melifonwu CB - started but inconsequential A 2022 1st: Traded Rams 32, and 34 and 66 with Vikings 12 (Jamo) and 46 (Josh Paschal, bust so far) - Jamo is a bust as of now for a 12 but is definitely an asset and might still earn that 12. A 2023 1st: Traded Rams 6 and their 81 with Arizona for 12 (Gibbs), 34 (LaPorta), and 168. The 168 got traded again but the meat of the value in this was 6 for 12 and 34. So they didn't get Goff and a $21mm cap hit, they got Goff with his 21mm cap hit and Gibbs, LaPorta and Jamo on rookie contracts. Is Stafford better in a vacuum? Yeah. Is Stafford better than Goff with LaPorta and Gibbs? Recent history would suggest not. And Stafford has as big a cap hit for the Rams as all of them combined, so I disagree with using Goff as an example of a high draft pick mediocre QB not being that big of a hinderance. The Lions cut the check for Goff's salary this year, but the Ram's are the ones that really paid it. AndrewP posted:The boy geniuses like McVay and Shanahan can’t tell you what to do when the play breaks down. Having a QB that can create is a drat near necessity in today’s NFL. Papercut posted:The Niners are very much not a great pass blocking offensive line. Like not even a little bit, at all. They have exactly one positive lineman in pass protect. Correct, and I'm wrong that the 49ers have a good line, but my point was with how defenses have adapted to passing games, and in a world with limited cap space and top 10 picks being traded for disgusting value, it's better to have a competent QB (Brock, Goff) that can get the ball to playmakers and spend those resources on the players around them. Improv plays are important, but that's much easier - to use your Rams/49ers as an example - when you got Kyren, Puka, Kupp, CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, back there being a loving nightmare for the defense to try and figure out how to cover, and to bail you out. Counterpoint: Mahomes takes up 25% of his team's cap space, and their passing offense has been historically lovely this year. It's not because Mahomes is bad, it's because his best receiver is a million year old tight end. The rest of their receivers are dire. Rice isn't even that good, he's just the one bright spot, promising for a rookie, in an otherwise garbage WR corps. Isiah Pacheco bailed the chiefs out but that guy's getting less than a million a year, and he's loving out the millisecond his contract's up. They won't be able to pay him because Mahomes is getting it all. They better hit every draft pick or they're hosed. Their best defensive player, L'Jarius Sneed, only got $2.7mm and his contracts up. Sell your stock in KC while you still can. TLDR: The resources given to QBs, both in cap space and draft picks, is too much. The best teams of the future are going to shift away from schemes requiring elite pocket passing QBs. We're still building rosters in a world where Peyton Manning cost $10 million in his prime, and defenses weren't built in split-field coverages that crush pass-first teams. imo
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Jan 27, 2024 09:25
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A Sneaker Broker posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ_QE7bhL1s As a Bears fan, non-Fields stan, and author the previous effort post, I hope to god we don't piss away that pick on Williams. We could get so, so much for that pick with the Williams buzz and CJ Stroud FOMO from some desperate GM that is in a win-or-get-fired situation. But we'll probably draft him because Poles and Flus are also in a win-or-get-fired situation, and a good deal that pays off in a year isn't of much value in that situation to the guys making the decision. 
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Jan 27, 2024 09:37
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vaginite posted:As a Bears fan, non-Fields stan, and author the previous effort post, I hope to god we don't piss away that pick on Williams. We could get so, so much for that pick with the Williams buzz and CJ Stroud FOMO from some desperate GM that is in a win-or-get-fired situation. Does anyone think Washington would trade up one spot to guarantee getting Williams? How much would that cost them?
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Jan 27, 2024 10:41
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DickEmery posted:Does anyone think Washington would trade up one spot to guarantee getting Williams? https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=was According to the chart, #1 is worth 3000 and #2 2600, so they'd need probably the #40 overall (500) in a small overpay. Given the hype behind Williams, Chicago could ask for next year's #1 with it's value in flux, but that may be too much of an overpay unless Washington really doesn't like Maye at all. edit - for reference, for the 2023 #1 pick (3000), the Panthers gave up DJ Moore, their 2023 first at #9 overall (1350), #61 overall (292), their 2024 first round pick (3000), and a 2025 second round pick (tbd). So for 3000 points of value the Panthers have traded at least 4642 points of value with more to come, plus an active roster NFL player. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 11:14 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 11:10
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DickEmery posted:Does anyone think Washington would trade up one spot to guarantee getting Williams? Depends on Washington, they got new coaches so they aren’t as desperate to win now, and Maye is an option for them, but if their ownership gets the same Williams-fever everyone else has and we make it clear we own the right to pick him, and are selling to the highest bidder, even WAS would give us a lot. Everyone has CJ Stroud FOMO right now too, it’s like the Texans bought bitcoin in 2009 and everyone else is looking at it a year later, wanting to get rich quick too. This year’s QB class is more touted than last year too (prior to knowing Stroud was gonna be a star) - combine that with a QB starved league, FOMO, and everyone being so high on Williams, that pick is worth a haul even to #2. If we play it right, we could get a future first + late rounds and/or a proven player just for dropping to 2. At worst we could get a future 1st and some picks, maybe a good proven player at a position we lack. We could also get a franchise’s future for trading to someone with a much lower pick. Imagine what a late pick team with a good roster and a poo poo QB might give us. If Washington does sell us the farm, and we drop to 2, we can still trade that 2 down again for another haul to someone who’d settle for Maye. I hope we’re smart enough to do this. If we do draft Williams I sure hope it’s worth the hype, because anything less than as-advertised franchise QB is gonna feel real bad for squandering this opportunity. vaginite fucked around with this message at 11:33 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 11:30
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bryce young is the 10,000 bitcoin pizza
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Jan 27, 2024 11:38
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vaginite posted:TLDR: The resources given to QBs, both in cap space and draft picks, is too much. The best teams of the future are going to shift away from schemes requiring elite pocket passing QBs. We're still building rosters in a world where Peyton Manning cost $10 million in his prime, and defenses weren't built in split-field coverages that crush pass-first teams. I think you're right to say that QBs take up too much cap space, but the idea that teams aren't going to prioritize elite passers is a bit much. It's more likely that the league would push to decouple QBs from the existing cap structure in some way than it would be for coaches and GMs to stop chasing players who can turn a team into an instant contender just by showing up.
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Jan 27, 2024 12:10
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vaginite posted:This year’s QB class is more touted than last year too (prior to knowing Stroud was gonna be a star) - combine that with a QB starved league, FOMO, and everyone being so high on Williams, that pick is worth a haul even to #2. Not to say this is wrong, but 2021 was also touted as a great draft class and now maybe only one qb is even considered good. The 2020 draft class seems to have been phenomenal, on the other hand.
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Jan 27, 2024 15:24
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vaginite posted:Maybe Shanahan and Campbell cracked the code on accident. Shanahan out of not being able to get a top QB, and Campbell out of being meathead-Rainman. In a league where defenses have become complex, suffocating, and impossible to read, complex high flying offenses don't work as well anymore. Wasting high draft picks or 25% of your cap on an elite QB isn't worthwhile, defenses finally caught up. At least for playoff results, the distribution of the super QBs among the conferences is distorting things a little here. The final four in the AFC was Lamar, Mahomes, Allen and Stroud. Those guys largely don't exist in the NFC, so you're likely going to end up with some bums in the NFC title game
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Jan 27, 2024 16:09
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vaginite posted:Improv plays are important, but that's much easier - to use your Rams/49ers as an example - when you got Kyren, Puka, Kupp, CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, back there being a loving nightmare for the defense to try and figure out how to cover, and to bail you out. Mahomes won a Super Bowl last year with a WR room full of cast offs. Miami assembled a team of track stars and built a YaC focused offense and could only run up the score on bad team then got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. It’s really really hard to build a team with great playmakers and a great o-line. That’s a lot of positions you have to hit on in the draft because you’re not going to find a lot of great tackles or WRs in free agency. And any injuries on the line can be crippling. “Simply build an offense that’s great at the line and across the skill positions,” isn’t exactly a revelation. Having an elite QB gives you way more margin for error at those other positions. That’s one player that can cover for deficiencies in a lot of other positions. You’re also not really factoring in that the cost savings going from an elite QB to a guy at Goff tier isn’t that substantial. Goff is going to get paid a LOT on his next contract. It won’t be Lamar or Burrow money but it’ll easily be above 40m AAV. If he keeps playing well Purdy is going to get paid a lot as well. These guys aren’t getting Geno Smith deals. If you want to underpay a QB enough for it to matter you’re not getting Goff or Purdy level play, you’re gambling on Baker Mayfield or Derek Carr and hoping you can rehab a distressed asset.
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Jan 27, 2024 17:23
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I'd say there should be some sort of focus on reconfiguring the game or contracts or whatever so that everything isn't predicated on the rookie qb contract window.
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Jan 27, 2024 18:01
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'Bad' strategies are usually bad because they're done in stupid ways. See: Giving a massive QB contract can hamper you a lot in the long run...but you'd be stupid not to pay Patrick Mahomes. There was a while when giving a WR a huge contract was considered stupid...but what if that WR is Tyreek Hill or Deebo Samuel? Running backs are replaceable parts you should not give big contracts to....but it's a good idea to do so for Christian McCaffrey. It's not that paying QBs/WRs/RBs is a mistake, it's that you need to build yourself in a way to maximize what you are spending that money on. You don't just pay your stars then put together a roster of whatever pieces and hope it still functions.
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Jan 27, 2024 18:02
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Are you suggesting paying Jalen hurts wasn't a good idea???
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Jan 27, 2024 18:05
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I was just using Mahomes as an example, but I do think paying big money any QB other than Mahomes does put you at a disadvantage against the Chiefs. It doesn't make it a mistake though, just a reality that sucks for teams who have a QB good enough to hold onto (except possibly the Ravens). But in the Eagles case the stupid way they handled things was whatever the hell they thought they were doing with the defense this year. rare Magic card l00k fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 18:24
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Hurts is awful they had to pay him only because the stumbled into a working offense for one year. Really self sabotaging, if you ask me
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Jan 27, 2024 18:25
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Doltos posted:Hurts is awful they had to pay him only because the stumbled into a working offense for one year. Really self sabotaging, if you ask me Shane Steichen made Jalen Hurts a really rich man.
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Jan 27, 2024 19:26
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DickEmery posted:Does anyone think Washington would trade up one spot to guarantee getting Williams? From what I have been hearing, assuming Washington lands a deal with Ben Johnson (their preferred guy), they would be okay with either Maye or Daniels.
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Jan 27, 2024 19:27
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after Hurts, on the cusp of Tua needing to get paid.. it’s really hard to have any faith in giving short Alabama QBs* lots of money. *not a direct comparison, for the guy who got confused last time
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Jan 27, 2024 20:51
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You don’t have to pay Tua $50m a year. Really, you don’t. Put $30m on the table and if he walks, he walks. The Dolphins are the 49ers - the scheme is the star
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Jan 27, 2024 21:06
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vaginite posted:Counterpoint: Mahomes takes up 25% of his team's cap space, and their passing offense has been historically lovely this year. It's not because Mahomes is bad, it's because his best receiver is a million year old tight end. The rest of their receivers are dire. Rice isn't even that good, he's just the one bright spot, promising for a rookie, in an otherwise garbage WR corps. If anything your post just further supports how great and valuable Mahomes is. Despite all the issues you correctly identified about Mahomes’ supporting cast, they are still top 8 in passing yards, passing tds, and completion percentage. So I’m not sure how you are defining “historically lovely” when the passing offense is still in the top 25% of the league. quote:Isiah Pacheco bailed the chiefs out but that guy's getting less than a million a year, and he's loving out the millisecond his contract's up. They won't be able to pay him because Mahomes is getting it all. It is the correct decision to not pay Pacheco, even if they have cap space, which they could easily create if they wanted to. It sucks for RBs but that is the reality. Just spend a bunch of fifth, sixth, and seventh round picks shotgunning the RB position and you’ll find some serviceable backs. quote:They better hit every draft pick or they're hosed. Their best defensive player, L'Jarius Sneed, only got $2.7mm and his contracts up. Sell your stock in KC while you still can. quote:TLDR: The resources given to QBs, both in cap space and draft picks, is too much. The best teams of the future are going to shift away from schemes requiring elite pocket passing QBs. We're still building rosters in a world where Peyton Manning cost $10 million in his prime, and defenses weren't built in split-field coverages that crush pass-first teams. Yeah you are wrong. Defenses and offenses evolve, just because defenses are better against the pass now doesn’t mean they will be forever. And pass defenses aren’t “crushing” offenses, they are just doing better than they have been. Mahomes 2024 cap hit is $10m more than Daniel Jones. There is no allocation of $10m that a team could hypothetically spend which would add more value than that difference in QB quality. You also seem to be operating under the assumption that it’s really easy and reliable to get those top tier playmaking skill position players. Those positions bust in the draft, those positions are expensive, and importantly those positions have shorter careers than quarterbacks.
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Jan 27, 2024 21:08
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