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Diva Cupcake posted:I think the justification for putting the Jaguars as a 2 seed was less that their roster was top tier and Lawrence was elite, and more that they play in the easiest division in the conference and had the easiest division in the opposite conference on their schedule. If they just beat the teams they should beat, 13 wins wasn't out of the question. exactly. no one thinks the Jags are a super talented team just that they have an elite qb in a garbage division
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Oct 11, 2023 04:15
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BlindSite posted:Etienne Ehh, most of those dudes are solid starters or #2s with flashes. There’s no true #1 except maybe Ridley now that he’s back but that’s still not entirely clear yet. More importantly, that’s most of the talent on the team. The rest of the team is at best largely mediocre dudes who won’t embarrass you. There’s Josh Allen and Scherff I guess? In general there’s really no elite talent on the Jags outside of maybe TLaw. I’m honestly shocked anyone’s taking the position that a roster put together by Baalke is in fact very talented.
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Oct 11, 2023 08:46
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yea the Jags are firmly in the "yep, that's a football team" levels of talent. it's not awful but its also not anything to get psyched about
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Oct 11, 2023 22:16
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TLaw in the second half of last season was incredible and absolutely looked elite. He hasn’t shown that yet much this year although there was some of it in the Buffalo game, but it was so impressive. So long as he can channel that again he’s firmly in the elite category for me.
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Oct 12, 2023 08:31
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Was he injured in college too? Constantly, not necessarily huge injuries but he was constantly banged up
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Oct 18, 2023 17:30
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CharlestheHammer posted:I doubt the Packers dump love unless they get a top pick and can gamble on the top prospects i mean if things keeping going the same way that's absolutely what's going to happen. they're in line for a top 5 pick right now
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Oct 30, 2023 21:04
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probably could do some designed rollouts to find out if that helps but that would require some sort of modern offense
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Nov 6, 2023 18:28
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Doltos posted:Stroud and Bryce are different QBs. Bryce was drafted for and will hopefully be used in a short yardage WCO that requires precision and anticipation. He's good at that in the NFL. His team is hot garbage fire and doesn't have the personnel to make him excel. Stroud is doing great but his team is also way better than people were giving them credit for in preseason. Nico Collins and Donovan People-Jones are both good pros that were held back in college by Shea Patterson so no one rates them on either of their teams. Tank Dell is playing great. They have a top 10 offensive line right now somehow despite half of them being injured. Way better coaching too. Stands to reason one of them is going to be playing better than the other. Hell Bryce wasn't even getting this much poo poo until week 8 which is pretty good for a rookie QB. DPJ is on the Lions now, formerly Browns. I assume you mean Noah Brown Also genuine question, why wouldn’t a short accurate dude be good in a Shanahan system? Isn’t it all timing based?
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Nov 7, 2023 04:44
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Cavauro posted:donovan peoples-jones was brought up to bolster the point about Nico Collins' college QB Shea Patterson Oh word, misread that.
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Nov 7, 2023 05:01
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wandler20 posted:Bowles could not generate any kind of pass rush against a bunch of backups which says a lot about his scheme. I think I read somewhere he took around 3.1 seconds to throw and the average is around 2.5 so yeah, he was getting a lot of time to throw and boy did he deliver. Hilariously Kancey finally got quick pressure on that last TD and it didnt matter
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Nov 9, 2023 20:44
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HootTheOwl posted:What's the difference between the two numbers? Does the Y axis count YAC and X is where they caught it? Upper left quadrant is essentially YAC boosted, bottom left is 3 yd curls on 3 and 5, the right hand side is Unleashing the Dragon with the upper right being successfully unleashing the dragon and the bottom right being bad Sexy Rexy. The deltas between the X&Y on the right hand side are interesting. Like Tua looks like he’s throwing it deeper than the yards he’s getting which means someone’s losing yards somewhere or they’re incompletes. Jordan Love seems to love hucking it deep but is not actually getting those yards. Meanwhile CJ Stroud loves going deep and he’s getting nearly all of them completed WHICH IS WILD Purdy loves going intermediate and then gets boosted by great YAC. I think Purdy’s actually getting the most YAC out of his guys which checks out. Mahomes is close. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Nov 9, 2023 |
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Nov 9, 2023 20:52
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I’m going to point out that Andy Dalton started one full game for the Panthers this year which was their highest point total of the year: 27 pts He put up this statline with the same offense, o-line, and receivers: 361 yds 58.6% completion 6.2 y/a 2 TDs 0 INTs 3 Sacks Bryce hasn’t hit 250yds in a single game this year including the Detroit one where they were getting blown out so he had a chance to put up garbage time stats Like the offense is badly designed, badly called, and the talent is poo poo but Bryce has not once shown the ability to put up even an Andy Dalton level game with this same offense. Or put another way what exactly is Bryce bringing to the table to get excited about if you do put him in a different offense? Is it accuracy, vision, arm strength, off platform throws, running ability? Bc tonight he and Bagent looked like the same level of QB. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Nov 10, 2023 |
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Nov 10, 2023 11:31
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Ignoring the Bryce/STroud comparisons for a minute, when was the last time a rookie QB looked as good as Stroud? He looks like loving Peyton Manning back there, it’s wild.
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Nov 13, 2023 00:07
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Doltos posted:RG3 Alaois posted:god RG3's rookie season ruled so much. RG3 did look incredible but he most electric as a runner, he had 2 300yd passing games. Stroud’s already got 4 of those. So in 14 games RG3 had 3200 yds passing, 20 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 65.6% completion, 815 yds rushing, and 7 Rushing TDs. So about 4,015 all purpose yards and 27 TDs. Yea Jesus that was a good year. Stroud in 9 games has 2626 yds passing, 15 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 61.6% completion, 86 yds rushing an 2 rushing TDs. So about 2700 total yds and 17 TDs in 5 less games. drat that’s actually going to be pretty close across a 14 game stretch but Stroud’s numbers will all be as a traditional drop back passer which gives me way more confidence in him long term.
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Nov 13, 2023 03:56
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Just pointing out the Giants with Tommy Devito at QB have scored more points today than the Panthers with Bryce have all season.
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Nov 19, 2023 22:14
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Caleb’s been noticeably worse this year and I’d still take him #1 overall regardless. I’m hoping Jayden falls to the Bucs somehow.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:55
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YOLOsubmarine posted:My favorite thing about Tepper is when he was hired everyone assumed that because he was a minority owner for the Steelers that he’d have learned something and would mostly be hands off and let the football people make football decisions but instead he’s one of the most meddlesome and reactionary owners in the league. It's a good lesson writ large: just bc someone was in a successful organization or worked for a successful leader does not mean they've learned the proper lessons from that time. What I see a lot too is that sometimes all that means is that they know how to keep that successful org afloat not how to get to that place or how to improve it. That and the main lesson I've learned from doing a lot of consulting across different industries is never ever ever hire a boomer with the belief that they can adapt to any situation remotely different than where they're coming from. fsif posted:I'd bet a sizable sum on him being a bust at this point. Rookies that look this bad have low success rates. Probably but the only way to find out is to jettison the garbage coaching staff and try someone else next year. That and they don't have a 1st round pick to get a new rookie QB ala AZ Cardinals and Rosen Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Nov 22, 2023 |
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Nov 22, 2023 00:59
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CharlestheHammer posted:I mean the Panthers don’t even have a first round pick. There is zero reason not to try Young out another year and hope he can be fixed. If he’s still bad by year three you can safely move on the best thing about Bryce being a massive bust in year 2 is they'll finally have a 1st round pick they can use to replace him. so yea, you gotta start him all next year too.
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Dec 12, 2023 01:39
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MrLogan posted:Dude, kettle. ive met Fiz, he would look less out of place on the football field than loving Bryce
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Dec 19, 2023 19:54
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ozymandius1024 posted:I would love to see the alternate reality where Andy Dalton starts the whole year, and how he would have stacked up. Dalton would absolutely have 2-3 more wins for Carolina this year.
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Dec 22, 2023 22:35
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Purdy feels like a young version of the Lions Goff. He looks totally dominant for long stretches when things are going well but then he'll just hit a brick wall and single handedly lose games
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Dec 26, 2023 06:51
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AndrewP posted:these are all insanely fantastic outcomes for a Mr. Irrelevant yea its really no hate and the fact he's at that point now means maybe he'll get past that after another year or two shanahan with a kirk or a goff is absolutely a super bowl contender
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Dec 26, 2023 10:34
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hope bryce looks great next week & wins so we can jettison bowles and so the panthers spend all offseason convincing themselves bryce has turned the corner
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Jan 1, 2024 03:08
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Doltos posted:You're not allowed to say Peyton Manning even though he's an example? That's kind of selective bias right there. Lmao this is some disingenuous nonsense and you know it, but sure let's do the comparisons, ignoring the completely insane ones like Steve Young, Aikman, and Bradshaw since they're from the stone age:  A few things pop out to me: - Bryce scored less overall than everyone else who started the same number of games. In fact the only people he outscored were Goff (7 games), Hurts (4 games), Cousins (3 games), and Alex Smith (8 games) and the only one he'd outscore if those dudes played the same number of games is Alex Smith in 2005. - Bryce's completion % is decent but his Y/A is abysmal. Literally only Goff in 7 games and Alex Smith in 8 games back in 2005 had worse Y/A - Bryce is the only dude who did any real rushing and still couldn't manage a single TD which is just bizarre. loving Goff got a rushing TD - Overall his closest comps are probably Geno & Goff which is one dude who required almost a decade to be "good" (read: serviceable for one season) and another who needed an all world offensive coach to unfuck him & who still shits his pants if he plays on the road with less than perfect blocking upfront. - Tied for the worst fumbling with Flacco and Alex Smith, two dudes who had a bad fumbling issue their whole careers - Holy jesus Alex Smith, what an insanely bad year that was back in 05. So Goff is probably his absolute best case scenario from here, best get him some offensive genius ASAP to come in. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Jan 9, 2024 |
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Jan 9, 2024 20:40
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IcePhoenix posted:I wish you had included Y/C because I laughed every time when I looked at Bryce vs whoever I was currently looking at and it would probably be even funnier on a spreadsheet like that (For those wondering Bryce averaged 9.1 yards per completion this year and like everyone else except for one or two guys was above 11) Just for you:  Lmao you were not wrong, he's by FAR the worst and again only Goff is even in his general range
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Jan 9, 2024 20:55
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Of course it can get worse. Josh Rosen was actually worse. You could pick a guy so bad he never even sees the field like Christian Hackenberg. As bad as the odds are that a guy who has a bad season turns it around the odds of finding a franchise QB in the third round are even lower. Bryce is already paid for, taking another QB that has a really high chance of also being bad and then throwing them out behind a bad o line with the worst receivers in the league isn’t going to solve anything for them. Since ya'll keep talking about Rosen being historically bad I added him and uhhhhh he's worse than Bryce but only by a little and mostly bc he throws more picks and has a worse completion %. He's actually a very close comp to Bryce right now  Made it easier to see 
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Jan 9, 2024 21:05
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Doltos posted:Can you explain why you only looked at Y/A and any stat that people had better instead of worse Tannenhill also had 3 more TDs between passing and rushing, a higher Y/C, and less fumbles Flacco put up more 5 TDs between passing and rushing, a higher Y/A, a higher Y/C and slightly more yards in 2009 Cousins is just a bad comp full stop bc he didn't play much early in his career Josh Allen put up 7 more TDs bc while he was a mediocre passer he was still pretty loving amazing on the ground and that was playing in 4 less games than Bryce All of those dudes had better rookie seasons than Bryce.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:13
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Doltos posted:Ah that's the problem then. Bryce Young, the guy who is a WCO pocket passer, didn't run as much as the other guys, as a quarterback. Yea the WCO guy is worse than all the other passers and he's worse than the other dual threat QBs. It's almost like as you're hunting for things to be positive about there's vanishingly little there. And yea gonna disagree that all of those were "bad" rookie seasons. Like you could claim Stafford had a bad rookie year but he also had a 5 TD passing game, which is incredible. Josh Allen, who is the poster child for a bad toolsy QB that became good, ended on a 3TD 1 INT passing performance and threw in another 2 rushing TDs for a 5 TD game. I'd say most of those comparisons you used were mixed and not really bad and the truly bad ones like Goff and Geno are the ones closest to Bryce. Neither of those are exactly comforting, his best chance is to one day have a single good season after being a bust for years or becoming a solid starter if he gets some absolutely perfect offensive setups and coaching.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:23
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Forrest on Fire posted:What offense does Alabama run? Is there a transition from college to the West Coast Offense still? Bryce has easily been the worst of the last 4 Bama QBs in his rookie season. But part of that is Bama wins on all world talent and the QBs haven’t been dudes with a great toolset. They’re mostly there to manage the offense.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:32
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Doltos posted:What are you even talking about? The WCO guy had a comparable season to those people. The numbers are right there. His Y/A is bad which everyone knows and points out. He's got legs and runs but he isn't a run first QB or even uses it as a weapon like Josh Allen. People are being judged by one game? Staffords rookie season was miserable. 1 great game doesn't offset the bad ones. Same with Josh Allen. I'm not hunting for things to be positive over, I think you're hunting for ways to fit a narrative that Bryce Young is the worst QB ever. He had a worse season than the WCO comps and both Allen and Stafford performed better than Bryce in their “miserable” rookie seasons while giving at least one truly inspiring performance so that you could see something in them. Bryce performed worse in the aggregate and his highs are nowhere close to theirs. Like what is this need you have to force optimism about this?
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Jan 9, 2024 21:35
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Doltos posted:Considering you threw out one WCO comp because it was Kirk Cousins and then compared Bryce to non WCO QBs means that you aren't interested in arguing you just want to fit a narrative. I think the thread has been ridiculous about the claims on Bryce. It's not forced optimism, it's just pointing out the pessimism. I threw out Kirk bc he literally didn't play more than 3 games his rookie year. Lmao you're being ridiculous here, just say you didn't watch him this year but the one highlight reel you glanced at makes you think he could still turn it around based on how garbage the team was around him. Don't reach for stats when there's nothing to support those claims. Doltos posted:I would also argue QBs do better later in the season because tons of teams are hurt or out of the playoffs. I hate to keep bringing up the same player but the 5 TD game that supposedly saved Stafford's rookie season was against a 1-9 Browns team. Josh Allen's 5 TD game was against a 7-8 Dolphins team that was eliminated and a 27th ranked defense. I mean Bryce played in the NFC south and faced a lot of bad teams this year including a reeling Jags team with everyone hurt and yet he still couldn't manage to have those sorts of incredible flashes. BlindSite posted:I agree with Daltos that Bryce has at least flashed something. Genuinely what did he flash and when? I'm assuming this is either the Detroit or GB game both of which they were getting blown out for at least half of those games and neither of which they won? Master Stur posted:How many of those latter rounds are intended to be starters/franchise and not just backups or taking fliers on a long shot though? I'm not wholly disagreeing that drafting earlier helps your odds as the trend does exist, but I am disagreeing that its such a strong correlation it should factor into the offseason decisions for the Panthers. IMO it just feels like a self-filling prophecy here - QB needy teams are gonna draft their guy with their first pick or trade up to do so, so naturally most QBs intended to be franchise qbs get drafted in the 1st, so the odds get skewed to say "most franchise qbs are first rounders". Some team is gonna talk themselves into three 1sts for Trey Lance or take a ZW and we're all sitting here confused why random QBs go from a 3rd round evaluation to a 1st. Ooooo are you arguing there's some self fulfilling prophecies to QBs in the draft ie that 1st round QBs hit more frequently bc they frequently get more investment? That's an interesting thought.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:07
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Doltos posted:I added Kirk's first 3 seasons together but fine, let's throw out Kirk. I didn't sit down and watch every single Bryce Young game but I think it's perfectly fine to look at a guy delivering NFL throws and saying hey, that guy can deliver NFL throws. The stats are similar and also bolster the original point that there's more than 5 QBs that had bad seasons to start off and are now starters. You're trying to argue for these bad seasons like they're somehow good which is just mind boggling. I think you just want to win an argument. I'm pointing out that he's the worst of this group you're comparing him to, and that a lot of the "bad seasons" when you look at rookie QBs across the board are less terrible and more inconsistent (which is what you'd expect from a rookie). Lmao that last bit is rich coming from you. In general my stance is QB development is incredibly complicated but Bryce had a garbage year and his closest statistical comps are Goff and Geno but Bryce also comes with deep concerns that he'll even hold up in the NFL unlike those other two. pasaluki posted:Incidentally, one of the greatest tragedies of this season is Anthony Richardson not being able to get through a full season to see what he had in him, while this little Ken doll makes it through the whole season playing like crap. With both Howell and Young it's like you give them credit for being tough enough to get the poo poo sacked out of them not but not for actual NFL quarterback play. Richardson got dinged up constantly in college too, don't expect to see many healthy seasons out of him. YOLOsubmarine posted:There’s certainly some truth to that but by the same token those highly drafted QBs are going to the worst teams in the league which makes it much harder to succeed. I doubt Lamar would have done as well if he’d been taken by the Bears. Brock Purdy has certainly benefitted from landing in an amazing situation and having low expectations. Jordan Love got to sit for 3 years and has certainly benefitted from an organization that has been pretty good for like 40 years now. Yea that's one of the fascinating things about QB development, they're so dependent on everything else happening but then sometimes they're monsters even when the surroundings are poo poo (see Marino or Stroud's situation coming into the year). Remember when the general wisdom was sit your QB for as much of the rookie year as you can afford? Then they put in a rookie cap and now you're better off making them get their lumps in the hope that you can get that sweet stretch of rookie QB deal and super bowl roster. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 01:15 on Jan 10, 2024 |
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Jan 10, 2024 01:10
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Doltos posted:Man you were trying to tell me that because Stafford threw 5 tds against a 1-8 Cleveland team that his season was less terrible. I think my analysis is correct. Yea it was less terrible bc he performed better than Bryce and showed some clear flashes. Master Stur posted:Agreed, but we don't really have a good defense for Bryce still performing badly even after the playbook was "streamlined" or simplified or altered or when a new coach came in. I'm not here to defend Reich I think BlindSite made excellent posts about his failings. I just think it took two people to make the output on field as bad as it was. I will once again point out that someone else started a game for the Panthers this year and looked SIGNIFICANTLY better than Bryce so it's not like there's zero evidence that Bryce was part of the problem
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Jan 10, 2024 01:15
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YOLOsubmarine posted:I think a lot of people overestimated how bad the Texans roster was. They were badly coached but the roster was decent if lacking top end talent. Stroud has elevated them but he’s not single-handedly dragging a bunch of losers to relevance. Couldn't you say this about the Panthers too? I mean the defense isn't great but they're playing pretty well. The offense is where there's a huge lack of talent but even then if you had like 1 real receiver and a power blocking scheme it wouldn't look so bad.
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Jan 10, 2024 01:24
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Doltos posted:He threw twice the amount of interceptions in 150 less attempts and only completed 53% of his passes for 2.2k yards and an average of 6, which is .5 above Bryce. And how many less fumbles did he have and how many more TDs while playing 6 less games? I mean at this point you're clearly valuing completion percentage and INTs over everything else including fumbles which I mean you do you but I don't. Maybe Y/A, Y/C, and TDs aren't useful either but lots of rookies turn the ball over a poo poo ton (Peyton with that insane INT number), not a lot of rookies can actually score as well or consistently push the ball. Master Stur posted:Yeah that's a thing I've been hung up on myself. Dalton threw for over 300yds and 2tds that one game he played and even matched Bryce's longest pass on the year at 47ish yards. Excluding the GB game, Bryce played just as bad or worse statistically after firing Reich. We can point out all the ways in which Reich's scheme was bad but there's not much there to support that Bryce's main struggles were schematic. Doltos posted:Dalton threw 58 times in that game for a 58% completion rating and produced a Y/A of 6.2 which according to this thread is bad. No one said he was good, just better than Bryce and a good counterpoint that Bryce wasn't in some way part of the problem.
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Jan 10, 2024 02:10
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MrLogan posted:Yes. Why don't you think Tua would get $50m/year in FA? bc he's a tiny little man with a serious concussion history, the most explosive complement of pass catchers in the league, and will almost certainly get dinged up again next year before hitting FA and actually yea someone will definitely pay him. If Miami is smart it won't be them
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Jan 11, 2024 05:35
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Kirios posted:I’m still not convinced Tua’s the guy. He’s accurate, yeah, but his anticipation still just seems okay - he’s more of a throw to a target quarterback than anticipate what the receiver is doing. starting to feel the same after this season. Tua basically falls apart the minute the schematic/talent advantage is nullified a bit, which is always going to happen in the NFL. McDaniel has built the system in such a way that he doesn't have to be some insanely talented high end franchise qb but he does need to hit more vertical routes and play better under pressure otherwise he's going to be the limiting factor on the offense (injuries notwithstanding) it almost makes me wonder what this team looks like with a dude who's got a huge arm but less mid range accuracy
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Jan 11, 2024 05:44
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A Sneaker Broker posted:I'm just thinking of rebuttals as my family of Panther fans are in my ear non-stop for preaching about Stroud early. He's a drat good player. The coaching is good, but it’s not why he’s got the most insane touch on balls thrown with an incredibly quick windup. Like Stroud on any team this year might not have had this level of success but those two parts would’ve had people stoked about him regardless
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Jan 14, 2024 11:03
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I'm still in awe of how insane the Texans turnaround has been this year, even outside of Stroud they got a bunch of talent and DeMeco is a legit good coach. Happy for Texans fans and honestly happy for the rest of us as NFL fans bc holy poo poo Stroud is so much fun to watch. I hope they somehow win the next round too just to make this an even more insane year
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Jan 14, 2024 22:43
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We've never even had a young QB who could consistently deliver mediocrity. It's rough. I see what the Texans and Bengals and Bills and Chiefs and Chargers got and I'm jealous. Baker's cool and all but he's a 2-3 season stopgap at most
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Jan 14, 2024 22:49
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