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3rd Year: Mac Jones - There's no point in him starting any further, or playing another down in the Pats uniform if they can help it. We know Belichick can be stubborn for the sake of being stubborn, or he may think that Bailey Zappe won't do any better so why throw him to the wolves, or Belichick is waiting for the Raiders to fire McDaniels at the end of the season and he can come back and be the OC again, but Mac has struggled so much that people are thinking it'll end Belichick's time in New England when he's within spitting distance of breaking Shula's all-time wins record. There's no FA who can come in and fix things, so either the Pats go with what little they have or, IMO, trend-break and trade now for... Justin Fields - Someone else who gains nothing by playing another down for their current team. The rep right now feels like Fields has some potential but has absolute dogshit around him, but the more Fields gets exposed out there the more the rep can turn into Fields has nothing to work with but is bad as well. Trading Fields now allows the Bears to maximize whatever return they can get for him, before Fields gets exposed further or hurt, while whoever trades for Fields has half a season to determine if they want to pick up his 5th year option or not. Trey Lance - Someone who needed to go somewhere that would allow him to take meaningful snaps, which was not Dallas. It's hard to see Lance's 5th year getting picked up, though Jerry Jones does whatever the voices in his head tell him to do at any given time, and with such little game tape he'll have to win a backup job in camp. It's a shame that someone with potential and such little XP never got a real chance to gain said XP, but maybe he'll show out in the USXFL and be back in the League that way. Trevor Lawrence - A league average QB, which isn't the worse thing in the world, but not for someone who was considered a generational prospect and had teams drooling from the second he enrolled at Clemson. That lost first year under Urbz hurts more and more, and maybe the Jags can get enough talent around him that Lawrence can progress into a top-10 QB, and maybe the best thing is Lawrence signs a reasonable extension that allows Jacksonville to spend on the other pieces, and maybe Shao Khan can convince his idiot failson to give up his wrestling promotion and try becoming a real boy. Maybe false hope is better than no hope in Jacksonville. Zach Wilson - He's getting more playing time in the NFL then he was going to get otherwise, and now the question is whether he stays in New York next season or if the Jets cut bait and dump Wilson even with a guaranteed year left on his rookie deal. Someone else who will have to turn to the USXFL to extend their career. 2nd Year Brock Purdy - I kept waiting for Purdy to turn back into a pumpkin and he has yet to do so. At this point the Niners need to consider the window as wide open as they can and sign whoever they need to in the off-season and front load their contracts while they have a Pro-Bowl level QB who accounts for chicken scratch against their cap space. If Kittle/CMC/Deebo/etc.. and Purdy himself can stay healthy, the Niners not winning a ring this and/or next season before Purdy joins the 35-40m/y club will be considered a major waste of opportunity. Kenny Pickett - Playing replacement-level football, plain and simple. Have to imagine that Pittsburgh looks to either Cousins in the off-season, or maybe they'll be the latest team to roll the dice on Baker Mayfield, but the results right now should cement Pickett to the bench until he's released from the team. Sam Howell - Decent player on a bad/cursed franchise? I see the 68.6% completion rate, just outside of the top 10, and wonder if there might be something there somewhere else. Then I see the 6:6 TD:INT ratio and wonder if that completion percentage is a mirage. Then I see the 29 sacks and wonder if he's aware of what a pass rush is or if he simply chooses not to acknowledge one. He's league average at 7.1y per attempt, so it's not all dinks and dunks as far as I can tell (NOTE: I do not watch Commanders football unless I have to). The boat long ran aground for Riverboat Ron, so maybe an offensive-minded coach can come in and unlock something, or Howell can go somewhere else, or maybe he can hang around the league for a dozen years and accomplish almost nothing of note. Desmond Ridder - A whatever player on a whatever team in a whatever division. The worst thing for the Falcons is that Ridder fails upwards enough for them to win the division at 8-9 or 7-10, keeping them from the Williams/Maye/Sanders triumverate at the top of next year's draft. Winning the division means they'd be stuck with Ridder for another year, but not winning the division puts them fringe Top 10 and having to give up capital to make a move upwards, unless they want to lose their minds and make Bo Nix a higher pick than he deserves. Rooks Anthony Richardson - I was never a believer in Richardson and thought that his downfall would come midway through next season, when he would be benched with like a 7:18 TD:INT ratio. Turns out he might not even make it that far if the Colts can't keep another franchise QB from being killed. I didn't think he'd ever be accurate enough to be a long-term NFL starter short of a Josh Allen miracle, and said miracle will never occur if he's spending more time on the IL then on the field. Watch Indy panic and be the ones to overpay Cousins next year as they start their QB roulette wheel up once more. CJ Stroud - Early returns are promising. The accuracy needs to come way up but the lack of INTs either show that he has good awareness or he's pants on head lucky to start his career. Houston is still a shitshow and they'll have to put talent around Stroud, but so far so good. Bryce Young - Someone else where it's hard to get a good feel because everything around him is butt. There's decent moments but they are far and few between and asking the Panthers to produce a competent team is making far too big an ask for a franchise that doesn't deserve it. Young might pan out, he might flame out, he might be pounded into dust and left on the side of the road; if I had to make a wager I'd bet on the latter. Jordan Love - A case where you wonder what the Packers could have done with that first round pick when they were the best regular season team in the NFL b2b years. Maybe A-A-Ron doesn't play well enough without being mad at the team, maybe Green Bay selects someone that would hava made a difference. Packers are committed to him through '24 at least, so he'll have a chance to prove whether he's worth a poo poo or not. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Oct 10, 2023 |
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Oct 10, 2023 04:24
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| # ¿ May 14, 2024 20:22 |
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I have made a tier list based on how I think teams feel about their QB. This is their projected Week 1 starting QB, not who is there now. Top row is fairly self-explainatory. Maybe you could argue Lawrence since he's outside of the Top 10 but they're winning in a weak division. Second row requires a bit more. Yeah, Tua's playing real well and Miami's rolling for the most part, but I think there's always going to be that "What happens the next time Tua gets hurt/concussed" in the back of Miami's head. If Miami makes a deep run they'll have to pay him, but I don't know if they can truly give Tua what he's worth, and I can see Tua turning down a below-market offer and going into his fifth year and then getting obliterated. Dak's got three year's left but the last two auto-void, meaning he's really up after '24. Normally this would mean a restructure and extension, but it's Jerry Jones and he did trade for Trey Lance so he might be up to something. If Dallas gets bounced early maybe he dumps Dak and McCarthy. The shine has come off of Purdy a little in these past two weeks. I don't think it's full cause for alarm yet but it's worth keeping an eye on, especially since he's so cheap to replace. Geno's doing fine, the question is if Seattle finds an offer where they can do better. Third row are all guys who are getting paid lots of money and their teams can't get rid of them without not being able to field a team next season. Russ still can't cook, Watson's a strong case in karmic justice, Jones was a mirage, and Derek Carr is just league average. Now, this does lead into the next row... Fourth row is where Kyler is for now, if he was healthy he'd be in the third row. Richardson might be a bust by injury instead of a bust by talent. I'll believe that 40 year old men can return from Achilles ruptures when it happens and not a moment before. Fifth is for Bryce and CJ, it's still early and their teams are bad, real bad in the case of Carolina and looking less bad in the case of Houston. Still, unlike Indy and Richardson there's potential here if both can develop and not be murdered, especially Bryce. Sixth row, if the Bears end up with number one and another top five pick, I think they have to give up on Fields and take a QB, even if the shine is coming off of Caleb Williams. Titans are done with Tannehill, question is if either if the Day 2 QBs they've taken the past two seasons are worth investing in. Baker's been ok and he feels like a Geno Smith situation; you can invest in him on the cheap and if someone better comes along/he falls apart, it's an easy contract to get out of. Seventh row, Ridder is a bum, Jimmy's gotta stop having people believe in him at some point. Stafford should be in the third row given his contract, but I get the feeling that he might be looking at hanging it up, which is why he lands down towards this bottom row. 100m is a lot of walk away from, but he might be interested in walking while he still can. Last row, Jordan Love ain't it. Howell is the latest UNC QB to be trash, a mantle he'll pass onto Drake Maye next season. Pickett was a nice story that's now ended. Pats might be making wholesale organizational changes and who knows how that'll end up.
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Oct 30, 2023 06:01
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So I guess the plan is fire Reich/whoever the GM is, take Williams 1st, trade Bryce for a 4th maybe?
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Nov 6, 2023 19:25
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YOLOsubmarine posted:I hope this is a joke. lol forgot all about that Trade Bears 25-26 1sts then for the right to have their own 24 first back
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Nov 6, 2023 19:30
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xbilkis posted:Sanders showed some impressive accuracy and processing but it’s hard for me to ignore those sacks even knowing he’s playing behind a dogshit line. Between that and his iffy arm strength, he vibes to me like a guy who ends up a career top-of-the-line backup who could probably perpetually be the 19th best starter if anyone was willing to commit to him long-term. (I also don’t think he ends up declaring this year). I think Sanders has to declare if only to save his life from that line, even if Deion dumps the whole load and 'cruits in a new one. He could be a combine make or break, where a good one brings him into Day 2/fringe Day 1, and a bad one sends him to Round 6-7.
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Nov 18, 2023 19:24
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I have updated my tier list on how teams feel about their QBs. Only seven on the top row, mostly because I'm not sure what's going to happen with Tua and Dak's next contracts. I'm 90% sure that the Fins/Cowboys will pay through the nose, but until that happens I can't place them on the top row. Second row, Geno's play has fallen off some and short of a Seahawks playoff appearance and maybe run, I could see the team taking a flyer on someone like Bo Nix in a later round, assuming that Nix falls to like Day 3. I'm also moving Russ up here; Denver isn't what they planned on being but he's no longer actively hurting the team by being on the field. Carr and Kyler are on row three by virtue of not being hurt at the moment, otherwise they'd be with a lot of the QBs on row 4. A-A-Ron's big return is just so going to be dashed by the Jets' incompetence and being eliminated from playoff contention, what a shame. We'll see how Herbert does with whoever ends up with the Chargers gig but he's not going anywhere. Daniel Jones might be challenged a little bit by DeVito next season. Watson and Joey Jumpoff will be back next year. If Stroud wasn't a rook he'd be on the top row instead of row 5, and if Richardson wasn't hurt he'd be here as well. Levis is going to be the starter going into next season unless he completely shits the bed in these last few games. If the Bears end up picking first I don't see how they don't take Caleb Williams and deal Fields, if only to give a new coach/potential GM a fresh start, plus save money on the QB side unless Fields' agrees to a far below potential market value contract. Baker's been up and down and even a Geno-type contract might depend on Tampa winning the NFC South on the basis that someone has to. Love is signed through next season, but I could also see Green Bay taking someone late and giving them looks in training camp in case Love struggles next year. I still think Stafford's going to hang them up after the year, and whoever ends up taking over in DC is going to want their own QB, and lol if they end up taking Drake Maybe and replace one bad UNC QB with another. Pats are in line for a complete rebuild, Steelers as well though they won't fire Tomlin. Ridder is garbo and why Atlanta can't win a winnable division. Raiders are done with yet another QB and Vikings are destined to be starting someone new next year. lol panthers
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Dec 18, 2023 06:19
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I'm curious, are there any QBs who really make "The Leap" after their initial rookie deals? Brees/Favre come to mind but they had to change teams first, Steve Young started in the USFL. Modern day, with all of the QB camps and such, it feels like if a guy hasn't figured it out in his first couple of seasons, at least year 3 barring Urban Meyer-like situations, it's not gonna happen.
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Dec 19, 2023 06:08
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No one with that dog in them can be on a team named after a cat MY COLUMN
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Dec 21, 2023 17:55
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Purdy the first QB to go from MVP frontrunner to cut from team in one game.
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Dec 26, 2023 05:21
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I can't believe that the Panthers are about to cut Bryce and he'll be struggling to get a backup job in the UFL here but them's the breaks.
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Jan 1, 2024 04:34
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Bryce is going to break rookie QB records. The ones that David Carr set.
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Jan 5, 2024 20:24
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If the Panthers cut Bryce after 6/1, it's 18m dead cap for '24 and 12m dead cap for '25. Given that they're not going to be good next year or the year after next, consider it avoiding sunk cost fallacy and a move they need to make. Unless their goal is to have the #1 pick in '25 as well...
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Jan 8, 2024 20:20
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BlindSite posted:Look panthers aren't competing for at least a year from here. Our best case scenario is some kind of decent stretch the last 8 games to finish like 8 and 9 in a weak division IF they hire the right coach IF they hit on their GM hire and IF everyone they draft in the mid rounds ends up with rams level production. I'd argue '24 and '25 are wastes already. I don't know the salary cap situation but this isn't something you can fix in just one draft class and FA signing unless you hit on literally everyone. Bryce has no trade value, not with the amount of money he's owed for the next three years. He's not worth even a conditional late day three; a team would rather take their own pick there or go with a UDFA and hope they hit a Brady/Purdy diamond in the rough on the cheap then give away actual value for 3 years and $30m of all but guaranteed bust. The Panthers can either throw Bryce out there for two more years of futility, barring some kind of eventual injury, and tank for high picks in the '25-'26 drafts and hope that someone in one of those two classes emerges as a one-season wonder can't miss QB, a la Cam/Burrow. Or they can acknowledge that Bryce isn't going to get better and that having him on the roster is filling a spot that has more value with quite literally anyone else. If Bryce is the backup and the starter, be it Dalton or Cousins or Carson Wentz or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf or whomever, gets hurt and Bryce is back in then you're back to being sunk. Dump Bryce, either trade that conditional Day 3 to Tennessee for Malik Willis or take a 5th/6th year super duper senior that's started 50+ games and see if they can give you something from nothing and is cheap to get out from if/when they fail as well, and try to set the team up to start to rise in '26 and make the playoffs in '28. For some reason I was reminded of the Cam Panthers about to have their first playoff game and the ESPN promos using RTJ as the soundtrack and everyone was hyped for them. Been a long, long time since then, for sure.
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Jan 9, 2024 05:26
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Question for the thread: if Bryce had been a third day pick this year, would you still be on board on giving him more time, or are you scouring the landscape for someone, anyone else to come in and be QB1 in '24? If you think that the majority of issues were with the coaching/team around Bryce and he can only go up, then fine, keep him. But this assumes that: -Bryce is capable of improving -The team is capable of hiring a capable HC and staff to put together an offense that is suited to his strengths, of what there are I'm not certain. -The team is capable of finding the players around Bryce to put him in a place to succeed. -All of this occurs in the next two seasons, before the 5th year option is due. If you don't believe in all four of those, then the best play is to either trade Bryce for literally anything and get his salary off of your books, or cut him post 6/1 and take the salary cap hit across the next two seasons, when we're all expecting the team to be garbage regardless of who's QB. If Bryce was pick #200, we'd be talking about who the Panthers could either pick Day 2 or who they could sign in FA, because there'd be no conceivable idea that he'd be back and starting in '24. But because he was taken #1, not to mention significant assets were given up to take him #1, he gets to stay due to #1 prestige/salary cap concerns/ego/sunk cost fallacy.
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Jan 10, 2024 06:57
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Maybe the Panthers could luck into getting Pete Carroll given the success he had with a QB who couldn't ride all of the rides at Disneyland.
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Jan 11, 2024 18:26
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One thing I didn't see in that fadeaway article is the recent trend of underthrowing your receiver and letting them draw contact against a DB who never turns their head. You're seeing it a couple of times a game now where a PI comes from a receiver hitting the breaks and plowing into the DB trying to get a ball that's five yards short and drawing a flag that way. It would make sense that fadeaway throws have less juice on them and unless you're an ~!El1t3 GuN5l1nG3r~! with the laser rocket arm those throws aren't going to get entirely to where you want them to. I'm sure DBs are going to start adjusting to those underthrows and how they scheme and cover, which will make those fadeaway throws less viable for all but the most cannon-armed. Still, Love's development has been terrifying to see and if GB can put a team around him, it means the Lions' ascent may be a one and done and we'll be back to the natural order of things soon enough.
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Jan 12, 2024 21:45
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I hope Tepper buys the Hornets and announces his new partner George Shinn and a thousand years of darkness falls upon Charlotte.
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Jan 14, 2024 23:07
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NSFW for language https://twitter.com/MonkeyD_Gucci/status/1747285315037892864 CJ ain't doing rookie stuff. Neither is Bryce but in the other direction.
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Jan 16, 2024 22:58
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Or they could do the right thing and dump Bryce.
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Jan 18, 2024 05:12
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Henchman of Santa posted:In the regular season he threw for 3900 yards, 40 TDs and 4 interceptions on an 11-1 team. Not an insane season but a pretty reasonable Heisman winner. That was a "let's give the Heisman to the QB on the best team" year but no one wanted to give the Heisman to Stetson Bennett so it went to Bryce instead.
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Jan 19, 2024 00:06
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SilvergunSuperman posted:Do you think Car would swap for Richardson straight up at this point? In a heartbeat.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:04
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AndrewP posted:I have decided my take on Purdy, which is that his value-per-dollar is off the loving charts and that’s what matters way more than “is he an elite quarterback” Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:It's a fair consideration. You're getting a majority of the production of a true elite QB for a tiny fraction of the price. It's why the window for the 49ers is really this and next season, before he's extension eligible and you're having to pay him 40m a season and his value is gone.
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Jan 25, 2024 23:38
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Black Lighter posted:The (Bryce) Young QB Thread - Tell me whether this fact is fun or not Here's one: Purdy would have been better off had the Niners taken literally anyone else with that last pick and brought him in as a UDFA. The odds of him making it out of camp as a UDFA would have been no different than as Mr. Irrelevant, but he's signing either a one year deal or at most a three-year deal for the absolute minimum, basically what he's making now. The biggest difference is that with a three-year deal, he'd be looking to renegotiate after this season, when he's coming off either an MVP win or at least a very high finish. Instead Purdy got drafted and signed a four-year deal for the minimum and thus has to wait until after the '24 season to cash in, with the risk that he could get hurt and/or turn back into a pumpkin.
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Jan 26, 2024 21:32
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| # ¿ May 14, 2024 20:22 |
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DickEmery posted:Does anyone think Washington would trade up one spot to guarantee getting Williams? https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=was According to the chart, #1 is worth 3000 and #2 2600, so they'd need probably the #40 overall (500) in a small overpay. Given the hype behind Williams, Chicago could ask for next year's #1 with it's value in flux, but that may be too much of an overpay unless Washington really doesn't like Maye at all. edit - for reference, for the 2023 #1 pick (3000), the Panthers gave up DJ Moore, their 2023 first at #9 overall (1350), #61 overall (292), their 2024 first round pick (3000), and a 2025 second round pick (tbd). So for 3000 points of value the Panthers have traded at least 4642 points of value with more to come, plus an active roster NFL player. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 11:14 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 11:10
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