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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

BlindSite posted:

I kind of eluded to this before with my post about ranking MVP seasons overall but did Peyton not deserve the MVP award because he had an all universe offensive line and was throwing to
Marvin Harrison
Reggie Wayne
Brandon Stokely
with Edgerrin James in the backfield ?

Correct, Daunte should have been 2004 MVP

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Geno Smith comes to mind

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Relentlessboredomm posted:

Purdy feels like a young version of the Lions Goff. He looks totally dominant for long stretches when things are going well but then he'll just hit a brick wall and single handedly lose games

he's young kirk

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

BlindSite posted:

Jordan Love opened well and then struggled a little bit like 3 weeks in, I'm going to chalk this up to, defenses finding their feet and more film, but he's come out the other side and looked fantastic. Gotta give credit where it's due, especially after the rumours of him not having much between the ears were cropping up in the offseason.

my eye test on Love was that he was correctly identifying open receivers but he kept constantly overthrowing them (and then overcompensating and underthrowing them) and then he stopped doing that and I hate it because I'm a Vikings fan

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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I'm pretty sure Dolphins/Ravens is at noon

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Makes me wonder if some of those sacks were just designed runs and the official statisticians were just like "QB tackled behind LoS must be a sack"

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

The Jaguars have not won a game in Jacksonville this year.

They've won two, or four if you count week 18 and the wild card playoffs from last season

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

FizFashizzle posted:

Not much difference between him and pickles

This isn't a fair comparison. I can understand why people like pickles even if I don't, but I've never understood the Bryce hype.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Henchman of Santa posted:

Bryce was a very fun and dynamic college player whereas Clausen played for Notre Dame.

This response made me laugh thank you.

A Buffer Gay Dude posted:

I dunno this might be one of those wojak bell curve meme situations where you have the insane Bama homers with 69iq on one side saying he’s great, a bunch of weirdo analytics guys with 169iq on the other saying he’s great, and then every normal person in the middle of the distro going “he’s a 5’9” smol bean who played every single college and high school game with a massive talent advantage”

I know that meme is supposed to show the truth is at the ends but let’s ignore that in this case because the obvious middle has it.

I'm never gonna put the time into being like an actual serious talent evaluator or whatever but whenever I see a guy who just very obviously to me has a big problem with arm strength or accuracy it's a giant red flag because you can't get away with the same stuff in the NFL that you can in college and Young very much showed me that first one

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

YOLOsubmarine posted:

His arm isn’t bad, but he really needs to be set to generate drive and he didn’t really have a chance to do that much in Carolina because the line performed poorly. He’s also 5’nothing so he’s going to have to move a lot to finding throwing windows like most other short QBs and that lends itself to him throwing off platform a lot and his throws lose a lot of steam when that happens.

Burrow doesn’t have a great arm either but he makes up for it with accuracy and he’s tall enough to actually stand in and make throws in a collapsing pocket so he can get his feet set and generate more drive.

I get what you're saying, and it's fair, but when I talk about arm strength I mean the entire process that leads to the end result not the strength of his literal arm. If Young can't execute mechanically to generate the same arm strength as someone else with similar raw strength in a game situation then I don't really care what he can do in shorts.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

List of QBs that had a near statistical season as Bryce their rookie year or way worse that are starting right now:

Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Geno Smith
Kirk Cousins
Joe Flacco
Ryan Tannehill

Can you explain what metric you're using to determine "a near statistical season or way worse" because when I look at them this is what I see

Flacco's first season he put up similar numbers with 100 fewer attempts (6.9 yards/attempt vs bryce's 5.5 lmao)
Tannehil had 500 more yards on 40 fewer attempts
Jalen Hurts is another "way more Y/A than Bryce" guy (also he adds way more in the run game than Bryce did)
I'm not sure how I'm supposed to even evaluate Cousins in this one, he was drafted as a backup in the fourth round and had 14 games played at the end of his third year. But if I add all those up then uh...he was way better.
Geno's a pretty fair comparison. He was also drafted 38 spots lower.
Josh Allen had ~2700 yards in 12 games (11 starts) when you add in his rushing, which only puts him ~500 yards behind what Bryce did in 16. And add another one to the list of a way higher yards/attempt
Stafford and Goff are actually decent comparisons.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida


I wish you had included Y/C because I laughed every time when I looked at Bryce vs whoever I was currently looking at and it would probably be even funnier on a spreadsheet like that (For those wondering Bryce averaged 9.1 yards per completion this year and like everyone else except for one or two guys was above 11)

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

Can you explain why you only looked at Y/A and any stat that people had better instead of worse

I don't even know what this argument is. "If you ignore all the things they were significantly better at better at then they were basically the same" ?

Other stuff has been covered but

Doltos posted:

Flacco put up similar numbers on fewer attempts is a near statistical season.

100 attempts is three games worth. The only thing "near" to three games is the difference in the Panthers wins and the teams that finished tied for the second pick.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

No, you ignored the INTs for several players which is a way bigger deal than Y/A. I'm sure if Bryce had more INTs than Stafford or something you'd mention that.

100 attempts is 3 games worth, I don't know if stats in those games would deflate or inflate a rookie QB's season, but I'm willing to lean towards more exposure = more mistakes for QBs that struggle in their first year.

I don't really care about INTs for rookies TBH. The difference in "windows" you're throwing to between college and the pros is huge and absolutely takes time to adjust to. More worrying if they're still a problem in years 2 and 3. I also tend to feel like young players will get better the more exposure they get as they adjust to the league, not worse. Especially at the end of the year, as if they had a hot start but fell off as more teams got tape, they've not had a chance to adjust to those adjustments. So if Flacco had those three extra games I would expect them to be on pace or better than what he already did.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

wandler20 posted:

If JJ is starting week 1 for an NFL team next year something went terribly wrong for that franchise.

Probably also not picking him first overall.

Like if Bryce had gone even 5 picks lower (e: and also not cost his team another high first round pick and WR1) I'm not sure any of us would be as critical as we are.

Doltos posted:

I'd argue that INTs should matter for every level just as much as any other QB measurable. It's kind of ridiculous to dismiss them but in the same vein demean a QB for not having a high passing average.

That's fair but I want to point out a key difference wrt Y/A: I'm not bagging on Bryce for not having a high passing average, I'm bagging on him for having an incredibly low one. Going back through 2018 his is the lowest of all qualified QBs and the only others below 6 are Josh Rosen in 2018 (5.8), Foles in 2020 (5.9), and Dobbs this year (5.9).

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

C. Everett Koop posted:

Question for the thread: if Bryce had been a third day pick this year, would you still be on board on giving him more time, or are you scouring the landscape for someone, anyone else to come in and be QB1 in '24?

If Bryce is a third day pick then I assume the Panthers are drafting Caleb, Maye, or Daniels with the first pick because they didn't trade it for him

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Kirios posted:

What they do have is the most talented skill position group in the NFL and a coach I rate very highly in Mike McDaniel. I wonder if we’re looking at a 49er situation (IE: Any quarterback can at least be good in it) with Tua and we don’t realize it.

Been saying this for three years lol. I think Tua is like Purdy though in that he is a factor in how well the system works and you can't just plug and play anyone in the system to get similar results.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

really queer Christmas posted:

This chart says Derek carr was good and I'm sorry but I have eyes that tell me otherwise.

Carr is below the line so the chart is correct

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Mike N Eich posted:

I was on board with this chart until I saw where Nick Mullens was rated

Do you not think he's well below average?

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Dutchy posted:

He is well below average in reality but that chart has him well above average in CPOE, slightly above average in EPA, but below the Mystery Line which implies .. . . ??? Inefficiency? I guess?

On every chart in existence that has a line like that, above the line = good and below the line = bad. The degree by which you are above or below indicates how good or bad you are relative to others.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

fsif posted:

That is a trend line and that is not at all what it means.

Then what does it mean?

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

fsif posted:

It's just showing a positive correlation between the two goofy made up stats. An inverse relationship between the two would show a line traveling from the top left to the bottom right.

In the Mullins case specifically, his EPA/play is a bit lower than one would expect given his CPOE. However, his dot is still squarely in the upper right quadrant, both above and to the right of the red grid lines that represent an average. He's above average in both stats but exceptional in CPOE.

So it's a pretty dumbass chart, is the short of it.

Neat. I still think it's kind of a decent reference though since most of the dots line up pretty well with my opinion on how various QBs have played this season.

Hot Diggity! posted:

Jordan Love is good

We already knew that though :sigh:

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Lovie Smith is forever in the hearts of Texans fans for deciding to win that worthless game.

From what I've seen it sounds like Houston still would have taken Stroud

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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The Vikings are gonna give up the farm to draft Daniels, I can feel it in my bones.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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A Sneaker Broker posted:

They need to go young.

Well he is younger than Penix so it checks out

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Pain of Mind posted:

That is how I interpreted "overall" as well, but what is confusing me is that that statement true is for the examples I gave as well, but I must be interpreting the statement incorrectly since everyone is telling me so (without any playoff qualifiers).

It's because you finished your statement with "first round picks are a dime a dozen," which I assume for other people implies that you are including any QB taken in the first round and not just QBs taken first overall.

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Coldforge posted:

Edit: I guess you could toss Bengals and Vikings in there, too, if you're feeling adventurous.

I'm not sure how anyone could look at what the Vikings backups did this season and include them in the conversation

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