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Still trying to reconcile my belief that Texas is not very good with a belief that a 12-1 conference championship season is plausible and a very premature worry about being left out of the playoff in that scenario
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Nov 22, 2023 16:04
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Thermos H Christ posted:Still trying to reconcile my belief that Texas is not very good with a belief that a 12-1 conference championship season is plausible and a very premature worry about being left out of the playoff in that scenario this is possible, but, tbqh, with the season UT has had, this would be dumb as hell. the B1G has a ton of frontloaded "competitive teams" sure, but like - Texas has had a stronger schedule than any of them. the Big 12 getting TCU last year should more than force getting UT this year otoh, i'm gonna beat up the CFP folks if not. ur choice buddy
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Nov 23, 2023 08:25
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The Dawgs are gonna do it
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Nov 23, 2023 09:19
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Lady Radia posted:this is possible, but, tbqh, with the season UT has had, this would be dumb as hell. the B1G has a ton of frontloaded "competitive teams" sure, but like - Texas has had a stronger schedule than any of them. the Big 12 getting TCU last year should more than force getting UT this year Undefeated UGA, UW, FSU and Mich/OSU and it’s the only move the Committee has. If Bama beats GA, FSU loses one with the backup or Oregon gets a CCG revenge win, then the Texas who beat Bama or Bama who are Bama debate of doom really kicks off.
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Nov 23, 2023 09:24
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11/24: God Only Bless The Big Ten West ACC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 9 - Louisville, Florida State, North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Boston College, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech Bowl Ineligible Teams: 2 - Pitt, Virignia The Netherrealm: 3 - Virginia Tech (5-6, @ UVA), Syracuse (5-6, vs WF), Wake Forest (4-7, @CUSE) Miami beats BC in a game that kinda somewhat determines bowl order, like BC was going to escape the Northeast, and that's it for ACC Friday action. FSU's the key one going tomorrow; Louisville shouldn't have any issues with a Kentucky that fell apart in the second half of the season and everyone else is deck chairs on the Titanic, but everyone and the committee is waiting to see how FSU does without Jordan Travis. Look stronk against a whatever Gator team and people might be willing to climb back onto the bandwagon. Struggle, and a whole lotta people are going to become Cardinal fans over the next week. The injury's already dropped FSU out of the top 4, meaning nothing less than 13-0 is going to get FSU into the playoff. Also there's Hokies at Hoos and the Cuse/Wake semi Win'n'In, Cuse does get in with a victory while Wake's high enough in the APR Pile that they'd get in with a victory, helped by keeping Cuse out. So there's reason to care. B12 Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 - Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech Bowl Ineligible Teams: 4 - Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston The Netherrealm: 2 - UCF (5-6, vs UH), BYU (5-6, @ OSU) BYU and TCTexas' B12CG opponent is still to be determined and the conference is really hoping it's not the Sooners, but woe to the persons who put their faith into Okie Lite. Meanwhile, TCU's failure to upset Oklahoma ends their season, and I'm eliminating anyone who isn't in the Top 10 of the APR Pile, so that'll do it for Houston. UCF has a chance win or lose vs H-Town, though win is obviously preferred, while BYU needs the upset against the Pokes. B1G Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin Bowl Ineligible Teams: 3 - Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State Nebraska and Iowa gave us the SICKOS~! Game of the Year, if not the Decade, and thus the Huskers need a whole lotta luck to get in, if it's even mathematically possible at this point. Minnesota's going to be bowling unless the cards go complete against them and if that's the case, it's only going to be eligible teams. Illinois needs to beat Northwestern or that's it. Sparty's done and thus most likely sending Penn State to a NY6 Bowl. P12 Bowl Eligible Teams: 7 - USC, Washington, Oregon State, Oregon, Utah, UCLA, Arizona Bowl Ineliigble Teams: 3 - Arizona State, Stanford, Colorado The Netherrealm: 2 - Cal (5-6, @ UCLA), Washington State (5-6, @ UW) Oregon State is a good team who had the misfortune of having two of the best teams in the country right at the end of their schedule. Calling Colorado done even before they lose to Utah tomorrow. Cal needs the win tomorrow most likely to get in, Wazzu needs the upset of upsets. SEC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 9 - Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Auburn Bowl Ineliigble Teams: 2 - Vanderbilt, Arkansas The Netherrealm: 3 - Florida (5-6, vs FSU), South Carolina (5-6, vs. CLEM), Mississippi State (5-7) The weirdness the Egg Bowl blessed us with this Thanksgiving was a mediocre, low scoring affair. #CLANGA could be the first team off the APR Pile is things go their way, 4th if things don't. I think they'll be bowling but it's not a guarantee at this point. Gata and Gamecock need good things to go their way, things more than they deserve. American Bowl Eligible Teams: 4 - Tulane, SMU, Memphis, UTSA Bowl Ineligible Teams: 6 - East Carolina, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Tulsa, Temple, FAU The Netherrealm: 4 - South Florida (5-6, vs. CHA), Rice (5-6, vs. FAU), Navy (5-5, @ SMU) Eliminating FAU as they aren't at the top of the APR Pile. Unless a bowl is willing to wait for the winner of Army/Navy, Middies most likely need to beat SMU tomorrow to get that sixth win and clinch a spot. At least that's the vibe from people who get paid to do this kind of poo poo and not give it away for free on a dead gay comedy internet message board; I personally could see one of the military-themed bowls holding a spot for the winner of 'Murica's game. On the less flag-humping side, USF needs the win of Charlotte which they should get; Rice's win over FAU isn't as guaranteed but their position on the APR Pile means a bowl should be in the Krispy's future. C-USA Bowl Eliigble Teams: 3 - Liberty, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky Bowl Ineligible Teams: 7 - Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, FIU, MTSU FIU/MTSU aren't high enough in the APR Pile to keep them alive. It's three for C-USA, four once/if Jacksonville State gets their waiver. Independents Bowl Eligble Teams: Notre Dame Bowl Ineligible Teams: 1 - UMass, UConn The Netherrealm: 1 - Army (5-6, vs. NAVY) What I said about Navy extends to Army as well, with the caveat that any and all 6-6 teams would have to be picked ahead of Army. MAC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 5 - Miami, Toledo, Ohio, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan Bowl Ineligible Teams: 6 - Akron, Kent State, Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan The Netherrealm: 1 - Northern Illinois (5-6, @ KENT) Eastern wins, Central/Wesern lose, and thus we're down to NIU at Kent State for the MAC and bowls. I saw where Bill Connelly had Kent State as the worst D1 team in his latest rankings, even worse than some D2 teams, so I feel safe in saying the Huskies are going to a bowl this season. MWC Bowl Eligible Teams: 7 - Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise State, San Jose State, Utah State Bowl Ineligible Teams: 4 - Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State The Netherrealm: 1 - Colorado State (5-6, @ UH) Utah State needs every second to survive New Mexico and earn their bowl bid. Colorado State shouldn't need as tough a time at Hawai'i, plus the weather should be a lot nicer. Sun Belt Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 - Georgia State, Troy, Georgia Southern, Texas State, Coastal Carolina, App State, Arkansas State Bowl Ineligible Teams: 3 - James Madison, Southern Miss, Louisiana-Monroe The Netherrealm: 3 - Louisiana (5-6, vs ULM), Old Dominion (5-6, vs GAST), Marshall (5-6, vs. ARKST), Sun Belt didn't play mid-week? That seems wrong, somehow.
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Nov 25, 2023 05:43
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Playoff Sugar Bowl: #1 Georgia (SEC Champ) vs. #4 Texas (Big 12 Champ) Rose Bowl: #2 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) vs. #3 Oregon (Pac-12 Champ) As of now I stand by what I've said. If we survive Ohio State/Michigan, we'll evaluate from there. NY6 Bowls Cotton Bowl: Florida State vs. Missouri Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Michigan Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Tulane Missouri crushes Arkansas and Penn State blanks Sparty, all but locking up NY6 bowls for them. Tulane clinches a spot in the 'Murica championship game, opponent TBD. Other than Kentucky beating Louisville or the Gators beating the Noles, this looks to be the lineup for the NY6 bowls, exact order TBD. And the rest: pre:Date Time (EST) Game Site Affiliations Projection Dec. 16 11:00 a.m. Bahamas Bowl Jerry Richardson Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina C-USA vs. MAC Liberty vs. Toledo Dec. 16 2:15 p.m. New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana C-USA vs. Sun Belt New Mexico State vs. Troy Dec. 16 3:30 p.m. Cure Bowl Exploria Stadium Orlando, Florida Group of Five conferences James Madison* vs. UCF Dec. 16 5:45 p.m. New Mexico Bowl University Stadium Albuquerque, New Mexico Group of Five vs. MWC Jacksonville State* vs. Boise State Dec. 16 7:30 p.m. LA Bowl SoFi Stadium Inglewood, California MWC vs. Pac-12 UNLV vs. UCLA Dec. 16 9:15 p.m. Independence Bowl Independence Stadium Shreveport, Louisiana Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Kansas vs. Rice Dec. 18 2:30 p.m. Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium Conway, South Carolina Group of Five conferences Louisiana vs. Minnesota* Dec. 19 9:00 p.m. Frisco Bowl Toyota Stadium Frisco, Texas Group of Five conferences Colorado State vs. Texas State Dec. 21 8:00 p.m. Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium Boca Raton, Florida Group of Five conferences Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia State Dec. 22 6:30 p.m. Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida Group of Five vs. SEC Miami vs. Georgia Southern Dec. 23 12:00 p.m. Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium Birmingham, Alabama Group of Five vs. SEC Syracuse vs. Old Dominion Dec. 23 12:00 p.m. Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl Montgomery, Alabama Group of Five conferences Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama Dec. 23 3:30 p.m. Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas Group of Five conferences Army/Navy vs. Arkansas State Dec. 23 3:30 p.m. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium Boise, Idaho MAC vs. MWC Miami Ohio vs. San Jose State Dec. 23 7:00 p.m. 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, Alabama Group of Five vs. Sun Belt Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina Dec. 23 7:30 p.m. Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium Paradise, Nevada Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Rutgers vs. USC Dec. 23 10:30 p.m. Hawaii Bowl Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics Complex Honolulu, Hawaii MWC vs. AAC or C-USA Air Force vs. SMU Dec. 26 2:00 p.m. Quick Lane Bowl Ford Field Detroit, Michigan MAC vs. Big Ten Bowling Green vs. Utah State Dec. 26 5:30 p.m. First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, Texas Group of Five conferences West Virginia vs. App State Dec. 26 9:00 p.m. Guaranteed Rate Bowl Chase Field Phoenix, Arizona Big 12 vs. Big Ten Texas Tech vs. Fresno State Dec. 27 2:00 p.m. Military Bowl Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, Maryland ACC vs. AAC Duke vs. UTSA Dec. 27 5:30 p.m. Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina ACC vs. SEC Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee Dec. 27 8:00 p.m. Holiday Bowl Petco Park San Diego, California Pac-12 vs. ACC Oregon State vs. Clemson Dec. 27 9:00 p.m. Texas Bowl NRG Stadium Houston, Texas Big 12 vs. SEC Kansas State vs. Kentucky Dec. 28 11:00 a.m. Fenway Bowl Fenway Park Boston, Massachusetts AAC vs. ACC Memphis vs. Boston College Dec. 28 2:15 p.m. Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium The Bronx, New York ACC vs. Big Ten North Carolina vs. Maryland Dec. 28 5:45 p.m. Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium Orlando, Florida ACC vs. Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma Dec. 28 9:15 p.m. Alamo Bowl Alamodome San Antonio, Texas Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Oklahoma State vs. Arizona Dec. 29 12:00 p.m. Gator Bowl TIAA Bank Field Jacksonville, Florida ACC vs. SEC NC State vs. Texas A&M Dec. 29 2:00 p.m. Sun Bowl Sun Bowl El Paso, Texas ACC vs. Pac-12 Virginia Tech vs. Utah Dec. 29 3:30 p.m. Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium Memphis, Tennessee Big 12 vs. SEC Iowa State vs. USF Dec. 30 2:00 p.m. Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium Nashville, Tennessee Big Ten vs. SEC Northwestern vs. Auburn Dec. 30 4:30 p.m. Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium Tucson, Arizona MAC vs. MWC Ohio vs. Wyoming Jan. 1 12:00 p.m. ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida SEC vs. Big Ten LSU vs. Wisconsin Jan. 1 1:00 p.m. Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium Orlando, Florida Big Ten vs. SEC Iowa vs. Ole Miss -Minnesota (5-6, vs WIS) -Wake Forest (4-7, vs CUSE) -Rice (5-6, vs FAU) -Mississippi State (5-7) -UCF (5-6, vs HOU) -South Carolina (5-6, vs. CLEM) I don't think we're going to need more than five teams off the APR Pile, so removing everyone after South Carolina since Wake would be eliminated with a loss to Syracuse. Thus, some like Cal now need to win to be in. For me, we end up three shy, so after JMU/Jacksonville State get theirs only Minnesota come off the top of the APR pile. I've got Cuse beating Wake Forest and Rice beating FAU, so after them would be Mississippi State. From there, I have UCF beating Houston and South Carolina losing to Clemson, so three deep would mean the Gamecocks but I don't think we get there, but we shall see. It'll all really depend on how many come out of the Fun Belt. Another run at this tomorrow and then it's onto Championship Week.
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Nov 25, 2023 06:23
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11/25: Lights Out on Pac-12 After Dark ACC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 11 - Louisville, Florida State, North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Boston College, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Syracuse Bowl Ineligible Teams: 2 - Pitt, Virignia, Wake Forest In good news, Hokies beat the Hoos and Cuse downs Wake to give the ACC 11 bowl teams, most among the P5 teams. The less good news is Louisville's loss to Kentucky and FSU not looking great against a Florida team that was hell-bent on self-destructing as hard as humanly possible. I'd have to imagine that Louisville is going to be favored in the ACCCG, even if FSU jumps up to 4th in the penultimate rankings. Cards are locked into the Orange no matter what; either they beat FSU and are the ACC Champs or FSU is 13-0 and headed to the Playoffs, at which point Louisville takes the ACC'd Orange Bowl spot. So they have that going for them, which is nice. B12 Bowl Eligible Teams: 9 - Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech, UCF Bowl Ineligible Teams: 5 - Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, BYU Horns and Okie Lite for the B12 crown, and we'll see if the conference leans on the officials to see things in a certain light. I don't expect Texas to jump above 7, Ohio State isn't going to drop any further than 6th IMO, past both Pac-12 teams. It would be huge for Texas if they do get ranked higher than the Buckeyes on Tuesday, but a B12 title would vault them ahead of an 11-1 OSU team regardless. B1G Bowl Eligible Teams: 9 - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota* Bowl Ineligible Teams: 5 - Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois Everyone on the fence failed today, part of a Big Ten West parting gift. Minny is first off the APR Pile as Cal/Colorado State are playing as I write this, meaning they have some life left but not much. Edit - CSU jobs at Hawai'i, Minnesota is our 82 and final bowl eligible team and will be the last team slotted in the field. P12 Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 - USC, Washington, Oregon State, Oregon, Utah, UCLA, Arizona, Cal Bowl Ineliigble Teams: 4 - Arizona State, Stanford, Colorado, Washington State Cal leads UCLA as I write this, so enjoy this now since it'll be edited in a few hours here. Washington/Oregon is a Win'n'In for the Playoff, which the conference roundly deserves in their twilight hour. Edit - I've seen enough. Cal is in, which knocks out Mississippi State. SEC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 9 - Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Auburn Bowl Ineliigble Teams: 4 - Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State If both Cal and Colorado State lose #CLANGA becomes our last bowl eligible team. Meanwhile, gently caress you Auburn. We were so close to a delicious Alabama loss in the Iron Bowl and you had to go and gently caress up 4th and 31. You can gently caress all the way off. Edit - Cal's win eliminates Mississippi State. If Hawai'i beats CSU, that means only Minnesota will come off the top of the APR Pile. American Bowl Eligible Teams: 6 - Tulane, SMU, Memphis, UTSA, South Florida, Rice Bowl Ineligible Teams: 6 - East Carolina, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Tulsa, Temple, FAU The Netherrealm: 1 - Navy (5-6, vs ARMY) USF/Rice win their winnable games and give the 'Murica a half dozen of teams, plus Tulane in position to go B2B NY6 with a win over SMU next week. Navy did get sunk by the Pony Express which leaves them in limbo; people smarter than I have them on the outside due to scheduling needs but I have a hard time thinking that a 5-7 Minny/CLANGA getting in over a 6-6 Middies team. Something will be decided next week, but either Armed Forces/Military bowls seem like they'd be willing to hold a spot open for obvious reasons, but I'm not ESPN so I don't decide how the bowls work. C-USA Bowl Eliigble Teams: 4 - Liberty, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State* Bowl Ineligible Teams: 5 - Sam Houston State, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, FIU, MTSU Jacksonville State gets their waiver and will play their first bowl game in program history, good for them. Liberty remains on the catbird seat if SMU beats Tulane and the committee gives credit to a 13-0 season, even if C-USA is hot garbage. Independents Bowl Eligble Teams: 1 - Notre Dame Bowl Ineligible Teams: 2 - UMass, UConn The Netherrealm: 1 - Army (5-6, vs. NAVY) I feel the same about Army as I do Navy, but bowls don't care about my feelings. I wish they would  MAC Bowl Eliigble Teams: 6 - Miami, Toledo, Ohio, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois Bowl Ineligible Teams: 6 - Akron, Kent State, Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan NIU beats Kent State and is in, giving the MAC a 50/50 split of eligible teams. MWC Bowl Eligible Teams: 7 - Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise State, San Jose State, Utah State Bowl Ineligible Teams: 5 - Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State CSU trails Hawai'i as I write this, so like Cal enjoy this until the game goes final and I change it. Edit - ooooh, that's a heartbreaker CSU. And now we wait and see who will actually play for the conference championship. Sun Belt Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 - Georgia State, Troy, Georgia Southern, Texas State, Coastal Carolina, App State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Marshall, James Madison* Bowl Ineligible Teams: 2 - Southern Miss, Louisiana-Monroe Give it up for the loving Fun Belt with the high score for bowl-eligible teams, especially with JMU getting their waiver! Everyone on the fence won today and enough teams were bad enough for JMU to make it an even dozen and 12 out of 14 in, which is freaking impressive for any conference, much less a P5 who have to survive non-con cash the check slates. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Nov 26, 2023 |
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Nov 26, 2023 06:46
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I enjoy these effort posts. Thank you.
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Nov 26, 2023 07:22
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same. not sure if i will miss these posts or cfb more that's not true it's cfb. but i will still miss these posts!!
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Nov 26, 2023 07:29
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Playoff Sugar Bowl: #1 Georgia (SEC Champ) vs. #4 Texas (Big 12 Champ) Rose Bowl: #2 Michigan (Big Ten Champ) vs. #3 Oregon (Pac-12 Champ) NY6 Bowls Cotton Bowl: Florida State vs. Missouri Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Ohio State Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Tulane I think this is it. Louisville beats FSU for the ACC title, but a 12-1 FSU still lands a NY6 bowl. Michigan to the playoff and Ohio State to the Orange. Otherwise, it's splittin the two SEC teams among the Cotton/Peach and figuring out who gets Tulane. And the rest: pre:Date Time (EST) Game Site Affiliations Projection Dec. 16 11:00 a.m. Bahamas Bowl Jerry Richardson Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina C-USA vs. MAC Liberty vs. Toledo Dec. 16 2:15 p.m. New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana C-USA vs. Sun Belt New Mexico State vs. Troy Dec. 16 3:30 p.m. Cure Bowl Exploria Stadium Orlando, Florida Group of Five conferences Georgia State vs. UCF Dec. 16 5:45 p.m. New Mexico Bowl University Stadium Albuquerque, New Mexico Group of Five vs. MWC Louisiana vs. Boise State Dec. 16 7:30 p.m. LA Bowl SoFi Stadium Inglewood, California MWC vs. Pac-12 UNLV vs. UCLA Dec. 16 9:15 p.m. Independence Bowl Independence Stadium Shreveport, Louisiana Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Kansas vs. Cal Dec. 18 2:30 p.m. Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium Conway, South Carolina Group of Five conferences Georgia Southern vs. Rice Dec. 19 9:00 p.m. Frisco Bowl Toyota Stadium Frisco, Texas Group of Five conferences Utah State vs. Arkansas State Dec. 21 8:00 p.m. Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium Boca Raton, Florida Group of Five conferences Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion Dec. 22 6:30 p.m. Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida Group of Five vs. SEC Miami vs. Coastal Carolina Dec. 23 12:00 p.m. Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium Birmingham, Alabama Group of Five vs. SEC Marshall vs. Jacksonville State* Dec. 23 12:00 p.m. Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl Montgomery, Alabama Group of Five conferences Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama Dec. 23 3:30 p.m. Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas Group of Five conferences West Virginia vs. Texas State Dec. 23 3:30 p.m. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium Boise, Idaho MAC vs. MWC Miami Ohio vs. San Jose State Dec. 23 7:00 p.m. 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, Alabama Group of Five vs. Sun Belt Western Kentucky vs. App State Dec. 23 7:30 p.m. Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium Paradise, Nevada Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Utah Dec. 23 10:30 p.m. Hawaii Bowl Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics Complex Honolulu, Hawaii MWC vs. AAC or C-USA Air Force vs. SMU Dec. 26 2:00 p.m. Quick Lane Bowl Ford Field Detroit, Michigan MAC vs. Big Ten Bowling Green vs. Minnesota* Dec. 26 5:30 p.m. First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, Texas Group of Five conferences Syracuse vs. James Madison* Dec. 26 9:00 p.m. Guaranteed Rate Bowl Chase Field Phoenix, Arizona Big 12 vs. Big Ten Texas Tech vs. Fresno State Dec. 27 2:00 p.m. Military Bowl Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, Maryland ACC vs. AAC Duke vs. UTSA Dec. 27 5:30 p.m. Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina ACC vs. SEC Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee Dec. 27 8:00 p.m. Holiday Bowl Petco Park San Diego, California Pac-12 vs. ACC Oregon State vs. North Carolina Dec. 27 9:00 p.m. Texas Bowl NRG Stadium Houston, Texas Big 12 vs. SEC Iowa State vs. Auburn Dec. 28 11:00 a.m. Fenway Bowl Fenway Park Boston, Massachusetts AAC vs. ACC Memphis vs. Boston College Dec. 28 2:15 p.m. Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium The Bronx, New York ACC vs. Big Ten Clemson vs. Rutgers Dec. 28 5:45 p.m. Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium Orlando, Florida ACC vs. Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State Dec. 28 9:15 p.m. Alamo Bowl Alamodome San Antonio, Texas Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. Arizona Dec. 29 12:00 p.m. Gator Bowl TIAA Bank Field Jacksonville, Florida ACC vs. SEC NC State vs. Texas A&M Dec. 29 2:00 p.m. Sun Bowl Sun Bowl El Paso, Texas ACC vs. Pac-12 Georgia Tech vs. USC Dec. 29 3:30 p.m. Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium Memphis, Tennessee Big 12 vs. SEC Kansas State vs. South Florida Dec. 30 2:00 p.m. Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium Nashville, Tennessee Big Ten vs. SEC Maryland vs. Kentucky Dec. 30 4:30 p.m. Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium Tucson, Arizona MAC vs. MWC Ohio vs. Wyoming Jan. 1 12:00 p.m. ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida SEC vs. Big Ten LSU vs. Wisconsin Jan. 1 1:00 p.m. Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium Orlando, Florida Big Ten vs. SEC Iowa vs. Ole Miss I can't imagine any radical changes on Tuesday so instead I'll do one of my favorite what-if posts, where the poo poo hits the absolute fan and every upset comes to fruition, or as I like to call it, A-Pawwllllll-calypse Now. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 08:32 on Nov 26, 2023 |
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Nov 26, 2023 08:03
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Washington will be in the playoffs, not the dastardly Oregon
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Nov 26, 2023 09:32
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While I would love to see Texas Tech in Arizona, I just don't see them passing up WVU, who finished tied for 3rd with a 6-3 conference record, or a Kansas who is the same 5-4 as TTU, but 8-4 overall. Fort Worth in the Armed Forces bowl is seeming like the most likely, right now, with the Independence in Shreveport also reaaaaaaally wanting TTU as the anchor team. Either one of those will be well attended due to TTU's strong metroplex fanbase, but obviously the 23rd is much preferred for the team thanks to the extra week's worth of practice time. But I don't know if they'll be able to justify jumping two 8-4 teams for a 6-6 team coming off of a 57-7 shellacking. In the Big XII, TTU and UCF are the last two off the pile and so go into the selection of "open" bowl games. Of course, ESPN controls everything and want to put TTU in the Independence, Armed Forces, or even First Responder. I'd also look for ESPN to make as many Big XII vs 4 corners matchups as possible. Arizona vs Oklahoma State in the Alamo (sending OU to play Notre Dame in the pop-tarts, which sounds like another ESPN move). If they can finagle things to have Utah in the Independence, they will. e: I saw somewhere that the Armed Forces and First Responders bowls both jump the independence in bowl selection order when there are enough big xii schools. I didn't see if those two bowls selecting big XII schools were mutually exclusive, eg: only one could select a big xii school. The point about ESPN controlling everything stands here. I'm also following if they give JMU a P5 opponent in their bowl game. These two could be a spot where JMU faces a Big XII school. The Camelia bowl is another possibility. kayakyakr fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Nov 28, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 17:53
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Washington will be in the playoffs, not the dastardly Oregon Not so fast my friend!
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Nov 28, 2023 20:31
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Let's do the boring one first, If the Playoff Started Today, 11/28 Sugar Bowl: #1 Georgia (SEC Champ) vs. #4 Florida State (ACC Champ) Rose Bowl: #2 Michigan (Big Ten Champ) vs. #3 Washington (Pac-12 Champ) NY6 Bowls Cotton Bowl: #7 Texas (Big 12 Champ) vs. #9 Missouri (At-Large) Peach Bowl: #8 Alabama (At-Large) vs. #10 Penn State (At-Large) Orange Bowl: #14 Louisville (ACC Rep) vs. #6 Ohio State (Highest ranked B1G/SEC rep) Fiesta Bowl: #5 Oregon (At-Large) vs. #22 Tulane (Group of 5 Rep) Basically, if the four undefeated conference champions win, they're in, as we all would expect. Washington/Oregon is a Win'n'In for the Playoff. Georgia/Alabama less so; we've already talked about the theory that if Michigan/Washington/FSU all win and Texas wins the B12, that should leave a 12-1 SEC Champ Alabama on the outside looking in, though that's not a guarantee. What is bad news for Texas/Bama is that Ohio State remains ranked above them, although that 13th *~d4t4 P01nT~* would certainly come into play if the Horns/Tide won and would be an easy jump over the idle Buckeyes. As such, Louisville is locked into the Orange win or lose, Ohio State's most likely locked in as their opponents unless Iowa shocks the loving world, Mizzou and the SEC title game loser are almost certainly in the Peach and potentially the Cotton, Tulane most likely won't make a repeat trip to the Cotton so Fiesta against what should be the Pac-12 loser and highest ranked non-Playoff team makes sense, and then it's determining if Texas has to leave the state or not. The only team that's not guaranteed to be here next weekend is Tulane and that'll teach them for leaving the SEC decades ago. This is the boring one, the next one is the fun one.
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Nov 29, 2023 01:32
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So now this is what I project would happen if we had maximum chaos this weekend, or as I like to call it, A-Pawllllll-calypse Now. Here: -#14 Louisville beats #4 Florida State for the ACC Championship -#16 Iowa beats #2 Michigan for the Big Ten Championship -#18 Oklahoma State beats #7 Texas for the Big 12 Championship -#5 Oregon beats #3 Washington for the Pac-12 Championship (yes Oregon is favored but this gets rid of any undefeated teams) -#8 Alabama beats #1 Georgia for the SEC Championship -SMU beats #22 Tulane for the AAC Championship -New Mexico State beats #24 Liberty for the C-USA Championship MAC/MWC/Fun Belt Championship games don't matter for this purpose, but let's root for chaos anyway: -Miami Ohio beats Toledo for the MAC Championship -Boise State beats UNLV for the MWC Championship -App State beats Troy for the Sun Belt Championship So, this leaves us with the following: -12-1 conference champs: Alabama, Oregon -12-1 non-conference champs: Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Washington -11 win conference champs: Louisville, Iowa -11 win non-conference champs: Ohio State, Texas So here's the good/bad news: the only conference champ that's locked into a bowl if they don't make the Playoffs is ACC, hence why I've been saying that Louisville is Orange-bound no matter what happens Saturday. So even if Iowa and Okie Lite shock the world, they're not jumping all the way up into NY6 land. Let's start with the Playoff and the easy two: Oregon and Bama. Each 12-1 conference champs, each took down a Top 4 undefeated team to win their conference. Oregon jumps four spots from #5 to #1 and goes to the Rose, Bama is top 4 but where I'm not so certain yet. Looking at the remaining eight, Louisville and Iowa are 11-win conference champs but impossible to put in the Playoffs, so they're gone. Texas is 11-2, they're an easy Playoff elimination. That leaves five for two spots; FSU/UGA/Mich/UW/OSU. Let's break them down: FSU: Best win: 9/3 vs. #5 LSU. Ranked teams beaten: 2 (#5 LSU/#16 Duke). Sararin: 12 Georgia: Best win: 11/11 vs. #9 Ole Miss. Ranked teams beaten: 4 (#20 Kentucky/#12 Mizzou/#9 Miss/#18 Tennessee). Sagarin: 3 Michigan: Best win: 11/25 vs. #2 Ohio State. Ranked teams beaten: 2 (#10 Penn St/#2 OSU). Sagarin: 1 Wash: Best win: 10/14 vs. #8 Oregon. Ranked teams beaten: 4 (#8 Oregon/#20 USC/#18 Utah/#11 Oregon St.). Sagarin: 13 Ohio State: Best win: #7 Penn St. Ranked teams beaten: 2 (#9 Notre Dame/#7 Penn State). Sagarin: 2 To me, the next one in is Georgia; #3 ranking, 4 ranked teams defeated, most coming down the stretch. FSU is the next elimination; only two ranked wins, one of which was the season opener, and the second lowest Sagarin among the last five. So this now leaves Washington against the two Big Ten teams. Unfortunately for UW, I don't see the committee making this an all SEC vs. Pac-12 affair, whether it's deserved or not. For that reason, UW ends up on the outside. Michigan vs. Ohio State, H2H has to matter and thus we have our four: Rose Bowl: #1 Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 Champs) vs. #4 Alabama (12-1, SEC Champs) Sugar Bowl: #2 Georgia (12-1, At-Large) vs. #3 Michigan (12-1, At-Large) It may not be fair putting both conference champs in against each other, but I have a hard time jumping Bama all the way from #8 to #2-3; no one outside of the top 6 at this point has made the Playoff, though we've never had a clusterfuck like this. And as much as I'd like to book a Big Ten/Pac-12 Rose and an all-SEC Sugar, I just can't. Ducks jump to first, Dawgs and Wolverines drop a spot and give us a rematch from two years ago, Bama goes from #8 to #4. Now the NY6: Cotton Bowl: Missouri (10-2, At Large) vs. Texas (11-2, At-Large) Peach Bowl: Penn State (10-2, At-Large) vs. Florida State (12-1, At-Large) Orange Bowl: Louisville (11-2, ACC Champs) vs. Ohio State (11-1, Highest Ranked B1G/SEC rep) Fiesta Bowl: Washington (12-1, At Large) vs. SMU (11-2, Group of 5 Rep) The easy one, again, is the Orange, with ACC Champ Louisville facing Ohio State, who'll probably end up #5 on Sunday regardless of what happens. Out west in the Fiesta is Washington against SMU, who ends up getting the G5 spot after the two ranked teams, Tulane and Liberty, both lose in their conference championships; New Mexico State and Boise State end up not getting the love over the Pony Express. Mizzou and Penn State didn't lose so they're in their respective bowls; 12-1 FSU isn't dropping that far so they end up in the Peach vs. the Nittany Lions. And then comes the last spot in the Cotton and whether I could move Okie Lite up that much and/or Texas down that much and what do we do with Iowa because they're ranked above the Pokes and beat a tougher team. What ends up saving the Horns is that all the major conferences have to be represented, which keeps Ole Miss out, and I can't move OSU all the way up past Texas. Now, Oklahoma is a different story, but a five-spot drop below four idle teams seems a little much to me. So, in the end, the chaos scenario just readjusts the deck chairs on the Titanic and the only real change comes from who lands the Ground of Five spot. And, of course, the Playoff if started today and in chaos: #5 Washington vs. #12 SMU, winner faces #4 Alabama #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Oklahoma State, winner faces #3 Michigan #7 Florida State vs. #10 Iowa, winner faces #2 Georgia #8 Louisville vs. #9 Missouri, winner faces #1 Oregon Because conference champs are in the Playoff field, that means Okie Lite and Iowa end up in and Texas/Penn State end up on the outside. Mizzou ranked above Penn State effectively makes them the last team in. I'll do one last one Saturday, which a final pass through all the bowls, and then we're onto The University of Army vs. The University of Navy and all of the bowls. C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Nov 29, 2023 |
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Nov 29, 2023 02:20
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I'd be legitimately upset if Tulane isn't selected for a NY6 bowl if they beat SMU. They won their bowl game last year and did about as well as anyone can do this year. I'd say if they get the win, they've absolutely earned the slot.
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Nov 29, 2023 02:36
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A.o.D. posted:I'd be legitimately upset if Tulane isn't selected for a NY6 bowl if they beat SMU. They won their bowl game last year and did about as well as anyone can do this year. I'd say if they get the win, they've absolutely earned the slot. There's no way they're not; the only other team in the conversation is Liberty and beating New Mexico State isn't going to overrule the Wave beating SMU. Personal note I have a friend who works in Tulane athletics and the sob wouldn't send me a Cotton Bowl champs hat. If they win here I'll need to badger him for some kind of champ swag this time around.
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Nov 29, 2023 02:58
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C. Everett Koop posted:There's no way they're not; the only other team in the conversation is Liberty and beating New Mexico State isn't going to overrule the Wave beating SMU. I'd guess at this point the Tulane-SMU winner gets the NY6 bid either way. If SMU has road wins over Memphis and Tulane that's probably enough to forgive their two losses to P5 opponents, relative to Liberty, who's barely played anyone inside the top 90 in SP+. General Dog fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Nov 29, 2023 |
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Nov 29, 2023 17:33
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This was my feel for the playoff picture on Sunday morning, fwiw. I don't see much in the committee rankings that moves the needle. If everything goes chalk (based on betting lines, that is), I could see there being an Oregon-Texas debate for the last spot, but Oregon seems to have a lot going for it vis-a-vis its regular season dominance, the relative strength of the Pac-12 versus the Big 12, and the opportunity to avenge its one loss. The current committee rankings would seem to indicate they feel that way too, though I generally don't trust much they have to say before the final rankings. Win and in, don't worry about the 1-4 order 1. Georgia (undefeated SEC Champ) 2. Michigan (undefeated Big Ten Champ) 2. Oregon-Washington winner (undefeated/1-loss Pac-12 Champ) 4. Florida State (undefeated ACC Champ) Needs some help: 5. Texas (1-loss Big 12 Champ) - after a lot of arguing, Texas gets the benefit of the head-to-head win 6. Alabama (1-loss SEC Champ) - at this point, probably needs two of Texas, FSU, and Michigan to be upset to make it in If they're upset in the championship game, need losses from Texas or FSU (or both) to get back in 7. Michigan (1-loss) 8. Georgia (1-loss) Theoretically but not realistically in play, even if Florida State and Texas lose Ohio State (1-loss) Washington (1-loss) Definitely Out Florida State (1-loss) Texas (2-loss) Alabama (2-loss) General Dog fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Nov 29, 2023 |
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Nov 29, 2023 17:45
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Can't help but think the committee is praying that either Florida State or Texas loses (read: Florida State), as that really simplifies their decision-making. SEC Champ (either team) Michigan (win or lose) Pac-12 Champ (either team) Texas/Florida State (whichever doesn't lose) If they both win, somebody (Texas, Oregon, possibly Alabama) is going to be a Tiffany-brand one-loss conference champ and get left out. Or maybe they just say "gently caress it, let's be legends" and leave out an undefeated Florida State, which is also an unappealing prospect.
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Nov 29, 2023 18:04
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General Dog posted:This was my feel for the playoff picture on Sunday morning, fwiw. I don't see much in the committee rankings that moves the needle. If everything goes chalk (based on betting lines, that is), I could see there being an Oregon-Texas debate for the last spot, but Oregon seems to have a lot going for it vis-a-vis its regular season dominance, the relative strength of the Pac-12 versus the Big 12, and the opportunity to avenge its one loss. The current committee rankings would seem to indicate they feel that way too, though I generally don't trust much they have to say before the final rankings. I agree with all of this except 1 loss Georgia. It's possible that a 1 loss Georgia brings 'bama in as the 3 seed and pushes FSU out so Georgia can take the 4 seed. I hope that this is not the case because that would be very bullshit. I do think a 1 loss Georgia is higher than a 1 loss Michigan in the pecking order. There is a part of me that's rooting for the worlds worst, chalkiest playoff in the last year of the 4 team. Georgia, Michigan, UW, and FSU. 4 undefeated blue bloods playing in the last 4 team playoff. It's the scenario that ESPN dreamed up when they started killing off the bowl season. I hate that part of me.
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Nov 29, 2023 22:12
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I personally think Georgia-Michigan-Oregon-Texas is the most interesting possible playoff field, because I think it’s a rare one where everyone legitimately has a shot to win the whole thing. I don’t think there’s any potential matchup there where the betting line is more than 7-8 points. I don’t think the committee should screw over FSU to get that playoff, and if Washington just has Oregon’s number this year, then good on them, but that would be a hell of a playoff.
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Nov 29, 2023 22:36
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General Dog posted:I personally think Georgia-Michigan-Oregon-Texas is the most interesting possible playoff field, because I think it’s a rare one where everyone legitimately has a shot to win the whole thing. I don’t think there’s any potential matchup there where the betting line is more than 7-8 points. I don’t think the committee should screw over FSU to get that playoff, and if Washington just has Oregon’s number this year, then good on them, but that would be a hell of a playoff. I'm fascinated by everyone being down on Washington. Is it because of style points? They've just barely beaten a bunch of teams?
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Nov 30, 2023 00:07
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kayakyakr posted:I'm fascinated by everyone being down on Washington. Is it because of style points? They've just barely beaten a bunch of teams? Defense has always been a bit suspect and they just seem to be running out of gas overall. If they beat Oregon again I’d certainly see them in a different light.
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Nov 30, 2023 00:18
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kayakyakr posted:I'm fascinated by everyone being down on Washington. Is it because of style points? They've just barely beaten a bunch of teams? Since the Oregon game, they've been squeaking by teams that Oregon is blowing out
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Nov 30, 2023 00:32
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To be specific, the offense has taken a nosedive since the Oregon game. Penix's accuracy is hosed and he's playing hero ball, his receivers except for Odunze haven't been able to get open consistently, and our starting RB has been running on one foot the last 2-3 weeks yet is the only one seeing the field. The playcalling has not adjusted for any of these factors. The secondary has also been injured to hell since that game but that's not the most glaring issue. At this point I think most people want Oregon more because based on the last month Washington will get blown out by any team they'd face in the playoff.
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Nov 30, 2023 00:53
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UW hasn't been showing dominance on the level that Oregon has, but they've almost always held the lead throughout their games this year. What UW has mostly shown is an inability to step on a team's throat and put them away. They were up 11 on Oregon with an opportunity to make it a three score game and couldn't take advantage, and similar things have happened in just about every game since Arizona. Just about every week I expect it to catch up with them and every week they find a way. It does seem that the losing team tends to have an advantage the second time around.
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Nov 30, 2023 02:23
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I'd love to see JMU in that NY6 slot over Tulane, but that's not going to happen. Also, I wouldn't want Penn State to play them
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Nov 30, 2023 02:28
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https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1730297010119430359 One down, many more to go.
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Nov 30, 2023 20:14
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kayakyakr posted:I'm fascinated by everyone being down on Washington. Is it because of style points? They've just barely beaten a bunch of teams? Biggest beef with college sports is when your loss is one of the biggest factors in seeding or rankings. Washington and Oregon could both end up 12-1 but Oregon would be In the playoff since they won the last game and as the conference champ. Same with Georgia & Bama. I love all that C. Everett Koop does here! But if UW losing to Oregon in PACCG after going undefeated and then having to play the G5 rep in the Fiesta is going to be quite the let down.
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Nov 30, 2023 20:18
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Tank44 posted:Biggest beef with college sports is when your loss is one of the biggest factors in seeding or rankings. Washington and Oregon could both end up 12-1 but Oregon would be In the playoff since they won the last game and as the conference champ. Same with Georgia & Bama. I think the committee generally doesn't show a lot of recency bias, but they do show heavy, designed bias towards winners of P5 conferences. If Georgia and Washington trip at the finish line and get left out, it's because they didn't win their conference and Alabama and Oregon did, not because they lost in December while their counterparts lost in September and October. In the case of the Pac-12, I'm pretty sympathetic to the idea that a championship game isn't needed in this specific case, but the titles are decided the way they're decided, and giving weight to those titles is a perfectly valid thing for the committee to do.
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Nov 30, 2023 20:22
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Yeah it's crazy that this UW team has done something nobody has done in the Pac-12 and has literally the best regular season a UW team has ever had and yet overall it might not end up meaning anything. College football!
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Nov 30, 2023 22:39
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Edna Mode posted:Yeah it's crazy that this UW team has done something nobody has done in the Pac-12 and has literally the best regular season a UW team has ever had and yet overall it might not end up meaning anything. College football! Off by a year. I'm looking forward to arguing over who the top 6 non-champions are rather than leaving out a champion or two because they wound up tripping up.
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Nov 30, 2023 22:54
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Edna Mode posted:Yeah it's crazy that this UW team has done something nobody has done in the Pac-12 and has literally the best regular season a UW team has ever had and yet overall it might not end up meaning anything. College football! What gives a season meaning? I feel like going undefeated against the conference schedule, the only time anyone has ever done it, is still pretty meaningful even if you lose the CG. I can derive meaning from pretty much anything, though. It’s supposed to be fun.
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Dec 1, 2023 22:23
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:What gives a season meaning? For sure, it's more in terms of what typically qualifies as a successful season in college football, which is making the playoff. I would love for this to be remembered as UW's best season... But it won't if they lose.
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Dec 2, 2023 00:57
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Jacksonville State/Louisiana to the New Orleans Bowl.
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Dec 2, 2023 02:11
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Edward Mass posted:Jacksonville State/Louisiana to the New Orleans Bowl. So someone who is technically not supposed to be selected before everyone eligible is home in a bowl  Anyway, Washington is 13-0 and a lock for the Playoff. Oregon at 11-2 is a lock for a NY6, prob the Fiesta but could be wrong. It's good news for Bama/Texas; win tomorrow and they'll jump Oregon and prob idle Ohio State. Outside shot for Ohio State to make playoff if Georgia/Michigan win and FSU/Texas lose.
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Dec 2, 2023 05:47
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Edna Mode posted:For sure, it's more in terms of what typically qualifies as a successful season in college football, which is making the playoff. I would love for this to be remembered as UW's best season... But it won't if they lose. poo poo I just want 9 or 10 wins, a shot at the conference title, and a decent bowl match up. I’ll take 1 of the 3. Fortunately you don’t have to worry about it! Congratulations!
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Dec 2, 2023 05:50
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C. Everett Koop posted:So someone who is technically not supposed to be selected before everyone eligible is home in a bowl if ohio state sneaks back into the playoffs again im going to post very upsetti spaghetti
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Dec 2, 2023 05:50
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:poo poo I just want 9 or 10 wins, a shot at the conference title, and a decent bowl match up. I’ll take 1 of the 3. *fistbump* See you in the Big 10, hopefully our offenses stay awesome.
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Dec 2, 2023 05:52
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