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Dandywalken posted:A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve I got this reference, and thoroughly enjoyed it.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:20
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I imagine that the US and others could have seen this force build-up even without it being intentionally telegraphed, but Iran's immediate declaration of the strike's conclusion definitely suggests they deconflicted the strike with the US behind the scenes.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:25
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That and the publicity campaign to get people ready for the idea it was coming, days before it did. And the subsequent western "actually it's fine they couldn't hurt you anyway... but seriously, just shut up" signalling to Israel afterwards. Unconfirmed as far as I know, but at least one source (of questionable repute) is saying they hit the swimming pool of the airfield commander. If that's true that's a hilarious human touch in a piece of deadly serious theatre.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:47
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hellotoothpaste posted:Just a heads up, what happened wasn’t “telegraphed” so much as is was extremely backchanneled. There were a lot more parties involved to sort of box the whole thing in, versus it all turning into another regional actualwar. Sure, yes. I meant telegraphed in a broad manner meaning that Iran *wanted* everyone to know when the attack was coming so it would be prepared for. I do hope it was enough. They didn't kill anyone. Israel seems a bit on the fence about a response.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:38
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Israel's a fascist rogue state that has always answered every problem with escalatory violence, and whose governments rely on their ability to do so with impunity for populist support. They absolutely want to retaliate, but it seems that the majority of the intercepts were done by their western patrons, and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone." Meanwhile the country that just showed it can reach out and touch them directly is saying that it will do the same, but with less restraint if there is further provocation. Those things combined presumably are causing the hesitation, but I'm confident Israel with overcome that and do the stupidest thing possible and then cry victim. Again.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:54
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone." Consider me supremely doubtful that they're actually going to let Israel suffer any consequences for their actions, and I'm pretty sure Israel knows it.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:09
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Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:19
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone. This isn’t enough to deter Israel. I’m almost positive they think the US would go “Aw shucks!” and proceed to fight Iran for them anyway down to the last American. Israel only really responds to threats (when it’s not having a violent meltdown instead). not a value-add fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 20:32
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Dandywalken posted:A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve Is this a reference to that one wargame where that general did that to bypass blue force SIGINT?
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Apr 16, 2024 20:37
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from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that) such defensive assistance is obviously a big help to Israel in attacking Iran, but I suspect that Biden can manage to ignore that and hold the contradictory positions long enough for the Palestinians to be wiped out
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Apr 16, 2024 20:38
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Subjunctive posted:from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that) Yeah it's this poo poo that worries me. There are numerous people in the Israeli government that would be willing to take the risk against Iran for the cover it would give them to expel Palestinians. I'm sure the US is saying behind the scenes to absolutely not do this, but the arrangement of carrots and sticks doesn't inspire confidence in me.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:51
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Israel has no hope of accomplishing any military action against Iran other than dropping bombs and shooting missiles, ditto for Iran. There have been Israeli attacks on Iran before, without any consequences for Israel, and I don't see why they would start now. Most dislike Iran.
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Apr 16, 2024 21:19
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Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here.
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Apr 16, 2024 21:45
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not a value-add posted:Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here. Israel doesn't necessarily care about US forces in Iraq. And no, Russia would not get involved in Iraq. Russia and Syria had decades of military cooperation between them. Iraq doesn't have that relationship.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:04
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Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:32
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I'd like to imagine a world in which US forces would try to intercept the strikes going in both directions, but I know it's not the one we're living in now.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:35
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not a value-add posted:Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen. I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present.
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Apr 16, 2024 23:06
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PurpleXVI posted:I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present. Indeed. Russia has more than enough on its hands already. The US getting pulled into a Middle East quagmire might alleviate pressure on the Ukrainian front.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:09
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Haven't seen this posted yet. The Navy confirmed the extra-atmospheric interception was with an SM-3. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-used-weapon-combat-first-destroy-iranian-missiles-2024-4
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Apr 17, 2024 15:49
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It's the thought that counts, I guess? https://news.usni.org/2024/04/17/navy-transport-with-equipment-personnel-for-gaza-pier-back-home-after-engine-fire quote:A Navy ship on its way to Gaza with parts for the temporary pier returned home after experiencing a fire, the Navy said Wednesday.
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Apr 18, 2024 00:34
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I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats?
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Apr 18, 2024 01:20
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Madurai posted:It's the thought that counts, I guess? Someone else reported that the parts are being moved to another boat to make the trip instead.
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Apr 18, 2024 03:43
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A.o.D. posted:I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats? For the Gaza port, the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade will send 2 LSVs and 3 LCUs, which will take 30 days to get there, with a MARAD LMSR to do all the really heavy lifting. A lot of this is really dumb since they've been trying to get rid of their vessels and this capability, and the expeditionary support docks are laid up due to phase down with that initiative. The Bobo is the LMSR carrying the important poo poo. The LSVs and LCUs aren't really made to move a lot of poo poo thousands of miles and need a mother vessel to operate from. The LMSRs are much faster than the LSVs anyways so the delay shouldn't be that bad. lightpole fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 14:56
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EFB
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Apr 18, 2024 21:43
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testifeye fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Apr 19, 2024 |
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Apr 19, 2024 04:56
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Some evidence that Israel struck an S-300 in Iran. https://x.com/csbiggers/status/1781436224248435107?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ
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Apr 20, 2024 15:59
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Would be  if that Blue Sparrow-based thing was the culprit
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Apr 20, 2024 18:07
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