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Dandywalken posted:A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve I got this reference, and thoroughly enjoyed it.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:20
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I imagine that the US and others could have seen this force build-up even without it being intentionally telegraphed, but Iran's immediate declaration of the strike's conclusion definitely suggests they deconflicted the strike with the US behind the scenes.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:25
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That and the publicity campaign to get people ready for the idea it was coming, days before it did. And the subsequent western "actually it's fine they couldn't hurt you anyway... but seriously, just shut up" signalling to Israel afterwards. Unconfirmed as far as I know, but at least one source (of questionable repute) is saying they hit the swimming pool of the airfield commander. If that's true that's a hilarious human touch in a piece of deadly serious theatre.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:47
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hellotoothpaste posted:Just a heads up, what happened wasn’t “telegraphed” so much as is was extremely backchanneled. There were a lot more parties involved to sort of box the whole thing in, versus it all turning into another regional actualwar. Sure, yes. I meant telegraphed in a broad manner meaning that Iran *wanted* everyone to know when the attack was coming so it would be prepared for. I do hope it was enough. They didn't kill anyone. Israel seems a bit on the fence about a response.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:38
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Israel's a fascist rogue state that has always answered every problem with escalatory violence, and whose governments rely on their ability to do so with impunity for populist support. They absolutely want to retaliate, but it seems that the majority of the intercepts were done by their western patrons, and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone." Meanwhile the country that just showed it can reach out and touch them directly is saying that it will do the same, but with less restraint if there is further provocation. Those things combined presumably are causing the hesitation, but I'm confident Israel with overcome that and do the stupidest thing possible and then cry victim. Again.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:54
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone." Consider me supremely doubtful that they're actually going to let Israel suffer any consequences for their actions, and I'm pretty sure Israel knows it.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:09
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Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:19
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone. This isn’t enough to deter Israel. I’m almost positive they think the US would go “Aw shucks!” and proceed to fight Iran for them anyway down to the last American. Israel only really responds to threats (when it’s not having a violent meltdown instead). not a value-add fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 20:32
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Dandywalken posted:A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve Is this a reference to that one wargame where that general did that to bypass blue force SIGINT?
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Apr 16, 2024 20:37
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from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that) such defensive assistance is obviously a big help to Israel in attacking Iran, but I suspect that Biden can manage to ignore that and hold the contradictory positions long enough for the Palestinians to be wiped out
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Apr 16, 2024 20:38
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Subjunctive posted:from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that) Yeah it's this poo poo that worries me. There are numerous people in the Israeli government that would be willing to take the risk against Iran for the cover it would give them to expel Palestinians. I'm sure the US is saying behind the scenes to absolutely not do this, but the arrangement of carrots and sticks doesn't inspire confidence in me.
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Apr 16, 2024 20:51
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Israel has no hope of accomplishing any military action against Iran other than dropping bombs and shooting missiles, ditto for Iran. There have been Israeli attacks on Iran before, without any consequences for Israel, and I don't see why they would start now. Most dislike Iran.
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Apr 16, 2024 21:19
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Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here.
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Apr 16, 2024 21:45
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not a value-add posted:Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here. Israel doesn't necessarily care about US forces in Iraq. And no, Russia would not get involved in Iraq. Russia and Syria had decades of military cooperation between them. Iraq doesn't have that relationship.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:04
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Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:32
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I'd like to imagine a world in which US forces would try to intercept the strikes going in both directions, but I know it's not the one we're living in now.
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Apr 16, 2024 22:35
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not a value-add posted:Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen. I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present.
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Apr 16, 2024 23:06
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PurpleXVI posted:I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present. Indeed. Russia has more than enough on its hands already. The US getting pulled into a Middle East quagmire might alleviate pressure on the Ukrainian front.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:09
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Haven't seen this posted yet. The Navy confirmed the extra-atmospheric interception was with an SM-3. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-used-weapon-combat-first-destroy-iranian-missiles-2024-4
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Apr 17, 2024 15:49
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It's the thought that counts, I guess? https://news.usni.org/2024/04/17/navy-transport-with-equipment-personnel-for-gaza-pier-back-home-after-engine-fire quote:A Navy ship on its way to Gaza with parts for the temporary pier returned home after experiencing a fire, the Navy said Wednesday.
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Apr 18, 2024 00:34
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I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats?
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Apr 18, 2024 01:20
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Madurai posted:It's the thought that counts, I guess? Someone else reported that the parts are being moved to another boat to make the trip instead.
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Apr 18, 2024 03:43
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A.o.D. posted:I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats? For the Gaza port, the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade will send 2 LSVs and 3 LCUs, which will take 30 days to get there, with a MARAD LMSR to do all the really heavy lifting. A lot of this is really dumb since they've been trying to get rid of their vessels and this capability, and the expeditionary support docks are laid up due to phase down with that initiative. The Bobo is the LMSR carrying the important poo poo. The LSVs and LCUs aren't really made to move a lot of poo poo thousands of miles and need a mother vessel to operate from. The LMSRs are much faster than the LSVs anyways so the delay shouldn't be that bad. lightpole fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 14:56
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EFB
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Apr 18, 2024 21:43
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testifeye fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Apr 19, 2024 |
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Apr 19, 2024 04:56
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Some evidence that Israel struck an S-300 in Iran. https://x.com/csbiggers/status/1781436224248435107?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ
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Apr 20, 2024 15:59
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Would be  if that Blue Sparrow-based thing was the culprit
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Apr 20, 2024 18:07
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I don't know if this is the right place where I can ask, but is Israel really pulling off a genocide? This one person I know who typically has Bad Opinions keeps saying that Biden is supporting Israel's genocide, and that any anti-Israel pushback from the government is despite Biden and from protests instead of him. I replied at the time that Biden listening to the protests and chastising Bibi is typically a good thing, as there's no way that a Republican would ever care about what protestors think. This person is mad that Biden is claiming that Hamas is hiding behind human shields, and I was like "...yeah? Aren't they? Hence the hostages and making tunnels underneath a highly populated city?" I really don't know where's a good place to start in regards to if Israel is committing genocide, so I'd like to ask about that and be less ignorant. For sure Hamas is a bunch of shitheels though who are using human shields, right?
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May 2, 2024 01:24
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Israel is committing a genocide, and their bloodthirst for civilians and aid workers is still shocking even after 6 months of intense slaughter of Palestinians. Evidence is posted directly and explicitly on social media by IDF soldiers, you don’t need to take anyone’s word for it if you would prefer go to the primary (but horrific) sources. Your stopped clock is right this time of day.
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May 2, 2024 01:29
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god please help me posted:I don't know if this is the right place where I can ask, but is Israel really pulling off a genocide? they're doing starvation, direct mass slaughter via military action, indirect mass slaughter via bombings, widespread destruction of property and heritage, forced relocations, and purposeful elimination of rights any one of these could be considered genocide and israel is (and has been) doing all of them e: oh and they're killing kids. just so many dead kids. and they're gleeful about it, too. there's an infamous picture of an IDF soldier holding up a child's sock in some rubble like "haha look at what i found!!!" that someone bought for a few posters in D&D Kith fucked around with this message at 01:45 on May 2, 2024 |
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May 2, 2024 01:42
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god please help me posted:I really don't know where's a good place to start in regards to if Israel is committing genocide, so I'd like to ask about that and be less ignorant. For sure Hamas is a bunch of shitheels though who are using human shields, right? Israel's action don't yet amount to full on extermination, but the scale of civilian death and destruction of the Gaza Strip, to say nothing of the deliberate deprivation of food and water, read to many as a deliberate intent to make the situation untenable for the people of Gaza. Multiple prominent figures in the Israeli coalition government are explicit Jewish supremacists who have effectively called for extermination and even Israeli "liberals" who haven't joined the government are still gung-ho on the "Hamas is an existential threat which must be defeated" rhetoric (nevermind that Hamas is fundamentally incapable of mounting an existential threat—7 Oct was an extraordinary security failure on Israel's part and should never have been possible if Israel were treating Hamas as the enemy it has long painted it as). Add in the rapid expansion of West Bank settlements and pogroms against Palestinians, it's impossible to see talk of a two-state solution as anything but lip service intended to dampen international backlash as a slow-motion ethnic cleansing establishes irreversible facts on the ground.
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May 2, 2024 01:44
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god please help me posted:I don't know if this is the right place where I can ask, but is Israel really pulling off a genocide? This one person I know who typically has Bad Opinions keeps saying that Biden is supporting Israel's genocide, and that any anti-Israel pushback from the government is despite Biden and from protests instead of him. I replied at the time that Biden listening to the protests and chastising Bibi is typically a good thing, as there's no way that a Republican would ever care about what protestors think. This person is mad that Biden is claiming that Hamas is hiding behind human shields, and I was like "...yeah? Aren't they? Hence the hostages and making tunnels underneath a highly populated city?" Israel has systematically enacted laws and reforms designed to disadvantage and displace the Palestinian people for decades. Some call this genocide. IDF troopers have also indiscriminately shot and killed Palestinian people who had the misfortune of having literally no where else to go. Some call this genocide. Israel has held up desperately needed food aid at below starvation levels in the name of “security”. Some call this genocide. I call all of it genocide, and Israel an apartheid state and generally “gently caress Israel” is my default stance. I recognize there is nuance in the Israeli viewpoint - I spent some time as a kid in a JCC and first hand suffered indoctrination by the facility’s staff. Great place when you’re 7, but seriously telling kids about how you had to have armed guards because your privileged American rear end felt uncomfortable on your birthright trip that went into the West Bank? Yeah nah. I recognize that the average Israeli my age and younger probably sees things very similarly to me at the broadest of levels - Bibi is a crook, the current government is a poo poo show waiting to fall apart, and the nature of the parliament is such that there is little choice but collation governments which seems to result (in Israel’s case) in governments empowering their most extreme voices in order to eek out those last few seats needed to remain in power. But I have never set foot in Israel, I have never lived through air raids and rocket attacks and the worry that my bus may be blown up. I have had the privilege of living in the US far away from areas of the world where that happens. I recognize that this is a very complex issue that doesn’t have an easy fix. None of that changes my opinion in the slightest that Israel is wrong to wall of Gaza, enforce a social system whereby Palestinians are treated like second class citizens in their own country, directly and indirectly contributing to Hamas’s recruitment efforts with every single interaction with the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas is a parasitic organization that has entrenched itself in the community and they do not deserve assistance or shelter. However that change needs to be lead by the Palestinian people themselves and not by the IDF or the Israeli government. Nothing warranted the attack by Hamas on 7/10, and the retaliation by the IDF was so over the top they are the bad guys, and one day I hope the nation can divorce the idea that the nation of Israel is not synonymous with the Jewish people of the world. TLDR - Israel sucks, and yeah they’re committing genocide. Hamas sucks, but they’re not a good enough reason for the continued misery the IDF is dolling out in Gaza.
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May 2, 2024 01:53
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god please help me posted:I don't know if this is the right place where I can ask, but is Israel really pulling off a genocide? This one person I know who typically has Bad Opinions keeps saying that Biden is supporting Israel's genocide, and that any anti-Israel pushback from the government is despite Biden and from protests instead of him. I replied at the time that Biden listening to the protests and chastising Bibi is typically a good thing, as there's no way that a Republican would ever care about what protestors think. This person is mad that Biden is claiming that Hamas is hiding behind human shields, and I was like "...yeah? Aren't they? Hence the hostages and making tunnels underneath a highly populated city?" By approaching it genocide first, you will find a number of people who will split hairs on whether it's technically a genocide or not or whether all the requirements have been met. But getting into a back and forth on that, specifically, is also a way to dodge on: Forced relocation Starvation and deprivation of water as weapon of war Indiscriminate killing of civilians Targeting of the press Destruction of schools Destruction of the medical system writ large etc. That only speaks to the observed actions that have taken place, not to the discussions being had by Israeli leadership on what they might like to see happen to Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank if given the opportunity. So someone who really wants to say it's not quite genocide is distracting from the conversation about war crimes and crimes against humanity, violation of international law, etc, and instead get to focus on a higher standard of binary argument where they might find more legalese support and questions as to whether the threshold has technically been met on genocide instead of looking at all the examples of actions that are quite obvious.
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May 2, 2024 01:58
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Hamas sucks really bad but they don't have the ability to regularly commit large-scale atrocities so Israel is always going to beat them on the 'who is worse?' front. And yes, Israel is committing a genocide, quite happily too. And it is terrible how many prominent Israelis are happy about it too. Like the cartoonist Kirschen who had a cartoon that was almost word for word "People are saying we're committing a genocide... SO WHY AREN'T WE!!?!?"mlmp08 posted:By approaching it genocide first, you will find a number of people who will split hairs on whether it's technically a genocide or not or whether all the requirements have been met. It may or may not be legally genocide so they can have discussion that when the question comes up in a legal context, but by most other definitions it totally is.
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May 2, 2024 01:59
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Every time someone is like "b-b-but Hamas bad!" I'm like: Yeah Hamas is basically a prison gang. Where did that giant prison with two million prisoners come from?
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May 2, 2024 02:03
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mrmcd posted:Every time someone is like "b-b-but Hamas bad!" I'm like: Yeah Hamas is basically a prison gang. Where did that giant prison with two million prisoners come from? Why didn't the childish Palestinians simply put aside their anger and vote for a better life? 
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May 2, 2024 02:05
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Gonna go against the grain and suggest that Israel is not engaged in genocide. Israel does not have the goal of exterminating the Palestinian people. They'd be fine if that happens, but that is not the goal. They want them somewhere else. Jordan, Egypt, dead, doesn't matter to them but dead isn't the explicit goal. Based on what the actions have been mlmp08 posted:
This is ethnic cleansing. Israel is incontrovertibly engaged in ethnic cleansing which is also a crime against humanity but doesn't rhyme with anything snappy so it's less popular of an accusation.
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May 2, 2024 02:13
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Stultus Maximus posted:Gonna go against the grain and suggest that Israel is not engaged in genocide. Israel does not have the goal of exterminating the Palestinian people. They'd be fine if that happens, but that is not the goal. They want them somewhere else. Jordan, Egypt, dead, doesn't matter to them but dead isn't the explicit goal. The difference between ethnic cleansing and genocide is intent and a LOT of Israelites whose intent matter have declared that they want Palestinians dead. And it is effectively indistinguishable when the way they want them out is 'killing them all until they leave'.
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May 2, 2024 02:48
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So many obstructionists we could shut up if we just. stopped. using. that poor word singularly for everything Ethnic cleansing, or racist mass murder. loving impossible to misconstrue what you accuse someone of with those two. Mixing in cultural erasure in a -cide word was a bad move Israel is perpetrating crimes against humanity. And it's so god drat dark for anyone who remembers them as the Jewish state
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May 2, 2024 03:53
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:So many obstructionists we could shut up if we just. stopped. using. that poor word singularly for everything No they wouldn't shut up. They're obstructionists, not reasonable people. They would just as happily argue that it isn't 'racist mass murder' because hey, the MURDER isn't the point, they're just trying to make them leave! And it's not ethnic cleansing cuz they aren't killing them all, just trying to take their land and make most of them leave!
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May 2, 2024 03:59
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