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ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

psydude posted:

Thread's off to a great start so far.

Actual content:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/hamas-prepared-for-a-long-war-with-israel-as-concerns-for-hostages-in-gaza-grow

Israel is claiming that they've killed more than 1500 Hamas troops inside of Israel.

Even if that number is inflated a bit, that's way more than the "dozens" of troops that were initially reported to have crossed the border.

Holy crap. That is a whole bunch of guys doing things across the border, like more than were found already amounts of people. I have a feeling that Israel is going to be in for a bunch more random explosions in the next few weeks.

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ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

M_Gargantua posted:

Hamas, much like Wager, is about the strength of an oversized infantry division, right?

I'm not sure anyone actually knows. I would imagine it is hard to make a count of Hamas members, I don't believe they have membership cards or anything.

Now that I am thinking about it, it might be impossible to get a vaguely accurate number, especially when you factor in other groups that are operating in the area. Right now, it seems like Israel is saying any corpse they come across that is Palestinian is "Hamas".

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Aertuun posted:

This was reposted by one of the journalists on the BBC Verify team. I haven't seen this anywhere else:

https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1710980029977424295

Coming from an observer's perspective, I would very happy if this thread continued to stick closely to reporting on the events taking place. Every other part of the Internet appears to be full of people giving their bad, poorly informed opinions on an incredibly complex conflict with a history that goes back (at least) a century.

That opening drone footage was both interesting and scary. I don't like how easily they attacked infrastructure and kept the drone (presumably) after delivering the payload.

I never thought Hamas would end up with "airstrike" capability.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Don't Ask posted:

ANYWAY, the entire northern region and basically down the the Haifa line is lit up with alerts about aircraft intrusions and there are already rumors of paragliders or similar. Nothing confirmed yet but it seems like it may be a big deal.

e: basically everyone in this area has been instructed to take shelter immediately:



I assume that Israeli RADAR/sensors are capable of seeing the difference between rockets, paragliders, and/or drones. Do we know if they issued a general "take shelter, stuff is in the air" alert or a specific alert about "guys on paragliders" or whatever?

Can we expect confirmation later on from the Israeli military (like what us Americans often do) or will we have to rely on normal reporting from news agencies?

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Crab Dad posted:

How the hell did they collect up enough paragliders to use them for an ongoing assault?

I'm finding myself more and more interested in things like this. I'm really looking forward to the writeups to come explaining how Hamas set up a makeshift air force via wish.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

Are paragliders technicals?

Eventually this thread will tackle hard questions like this. It's still warming up, ask again in about 10 pages.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Terrifying Effigies posted:

Thought this was a useful comparison in terms of putting into context the IDF's response so far.

https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1712506126762197457#m

That is a mind boggling amount of ordinance.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

golden bubble posted:

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1712689503410778179

After announcing that crazy 24 hour deadline to the UN, they've backtracked in just a few hours. I'm pretty sure there isn't an actual plan for the Israeli response besides try not to get lynched by grieving Jewish family members for telling everyone that your billion dollar invincible border wall cannot be pierced by Hamas.

Gotta remember that unlike 9/11, where W. Bush's approval rating shot up from 50% to 90% in a single day, Benjamin Netanyahu's approval rating among Israeli voters has gone down compared to just a week ago.


https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-767880

Where do they expect these people to go? Isn't any potential "safe zone" already over crowded with people who are already attempting to evac?

This really sounds like they are just knee jerking their way through this and hoping their lack of planning/leadership/goals can be forgiven if they drop enough ordinance.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

psydude posted:

It's insane that Israel didn't have an OPLAN for how to deal with the removal of Hamas by force.

This is shocking me as well.

Hamas has been the boogeyman for Israel for as long as I can remember, and then some. How is there not a building filled with various plans and options for what should be considered a likely possibility? Did they really think they were winning the "hearts and minds" of Hamas and no longer needed to plan for crazy poo poo?

If this is the result of their national defense planning, what does their emergency disaster planning look like?

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Liquid Communism posted:

I'm grimly certain no one in Netanyahu's government had a plan for taking out Hamas because their planning was on how to resolve the problem by removing the Palestinian presence in Gaza.

Even then, carpet bombing doesn't seem like an effective method. It feels like the equivalent of a toddler throwing poo poo around.

I thought Israel was more sophisticated than what we are seeing. Their military and intelligence networks have mostly been held as higher level "first world" when media and state actors talk about them. What we are seeing right now is what I would imagine the House GOP would cook up, not a country that was supposedly operating at a higher level.

The whole situation and how Israel is prosecuting their campaign feels like there is no plan. If there ever was a plan, it wasn't a very good one.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

The odds of it being a failed Hamas rocket that "just happened" to directly hit the courtyard of a Hospital inside Gaza, and not a bomb dropped by Israel, who had already announced their intention to bomb that area, and have been doing so for days, is so stupid you guys. Seriously.
Like Israel is just shrugging and going "I dunno, they probably bombed themselves" and you are taking their word for it.

e] Oh also IDF aren't even saying it was Hamas, they're saying it was Islamic Jihad, of course.

Gee goly, I don't know! Maybe it was a gas leak?!?

Edit: to be clear, I agree 100%

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Cugel the Clever posted:

Twitter embeds still work for me :shrug:

Really wish we just jumped to Bluesky, though.

Grand Fromage posted:

Yeah twitter embeds haven't worked for ages and clicking a link brings up a "sorry we can't find that" page since twitter also doesn't work.

It is really hit and miss with Twitter.

Sometimes the link works, other times it doesn't. Sometimes the post displays on mobile, sometimes not. Sometimes the embeds on my desktop browser act like broken tables.

At this point I think it is safe to assume that no one else can see the Tweet link/embed.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.


At least he is being honest. I don't see either side making any form of concessions to make a cease fire possible.

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ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

:negative:

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