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Lum_ posted:if only there was some possible end state to ths conflict that didn't involve the total annihilation of the other side. oh well, nothing for it, guess you got to pick a flag and kill everyone waving the other one. I am interested in this type of post - what IS possible do you think? Using the Israeli army to provide initial security for massive refugee / healthcare / intake centers to process and get healthcare/resources to those in need. A world-sponsored building program to rebuild gaza and provide high quality living conditions to a severely generationally traumatized group of people, to try to stem the violence Demolish the border fences and use community policing and militias in separate / alternating areas to keep a lid on violence and reprisals I realize this is pie in the sky stuff but how do we move forward? Full UN funding and turning Israel into a world heritage site with guaranteed rights and citizenship to all jews and palestinian diaspora?
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Nov 8, 2023 19:41
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 16:50 |
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That's helpful to read, thanks for that
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Nov 8, 2023 20:15
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US abstained on a Security Council ruling against Israel today, so you know things are going good
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Nov 16, 2023 00:01
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my understanding is as follows: 1) Local Hamas commanders had been planning this for years and decided to move ahead likely because of the lack of Israeli forces in the area (they were pulled over to the West Bank at the time) 2) The plan called for the taking of hostages and their eventual release in return for the release of Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli detention centers, a known successful tactic previous to this attack 3) The music festival was not supposed to be happening on that Saturday - but was given the green light to expand to an additional day at the last minute 4) Hamas commanders on the ground adjusted their plans to attack the music festival as well - it was a target of opportunity 5) Due to the lack of Israeli forces and disarray of those that initially responded, it was impossible to capture more hostages, as they were being killed during transport as Israeli forces were killing anything that moved 6) Hostages were then taken in the kibbutz' and Israeli forces killed hostages and their captors alike in trying to recapture the settlements 7) Any Arab found in the vicinity of the breach or in the area for hours afterwards were considered terrorists and killed, leading to multiple additional civilian deaths A humongous military fuckup on both sides in my opinion - a few other notes: - Hours and hours of boredom after crossing into enemy territory lead to marauding, which is a lot of what we saw from Hamas forces that weren't directly involved in hostage taking - The lack of response from Israel initially probably lead to disputes internally among the Hamas leadership over how to proceed - Multiple military hostages were taken as well, we haven't heard much about them as of yet Did I get any of this wrong or backwards?
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Nov 29, 2023 21:23
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Alchenar posted:Uh, 5 to 7 are just things people on the internet are repeating until they convince themselves it's true without anything really backing it up. Hmm, good point - I'll wait for a bit until more scholarly work is done on these points before thinking them ironclad. Thanks! On a lighter note,
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Nov 29, 2023 21:38
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As far as I know independent corroboration of the things that happened on October 7th and afterward have not been allowed by Israel. They've also been specifically targeting journalists inside Gaza, the West Bank, and the Lebanon border areas intentionally, one could go so far as to say 'assassination campaign' due to Israeli overwhelming control and surveillance of the area. When you know the exact location of the homes of journalists and also know their tech signatures, turns out it's incredibly easy to silence them. Haaretz and mondoweiss are the only two *credible news orgs that I've seen suggest that there could have been friendly fire involved in the casualty count *credible based on my understanding not any other metric sorry
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Nov 30, 2023 05:14
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1) America is extremely vulnerable to Iranian attack in Syria, Iraq, all throughout the Persian gulf/red sea span really. Bases that do not have enough dedicated AA to put down a full barrage of missiles, oil and transport infrastructure, etc. Thousands of personnel in the region are at risk and can be liquidated very quickly if Iran gets froggy. Even starting an emergency evacuation would be problematic, as attacks of convenience could be scaled up, and Israel would go basically to Defcon 1 if that happened. The US is only in a position to attack Iran if it 'goes first' - and even then it would be wildly painful, in dollars and lives. 2) People are really not talking about Israel as a nuclear power - a rogue state completely surrounded that is quickly losing support for it's activities. If North Korea tomorrow identified a minority group inside it's borders and started exterminating them - could we stop them without nuclear war? I doubt it. This is clearly where the 'might = right' rubber meets the road. If Israel loses military support from the US, it'll get even more aggressive in it's wars against Iran, Syria, and Lebanon - and it has nuclear weapons while it's opponents do not. If the US starts dramatically evacuating it's personnel from the region to lower their risk of attack, Israel will take that as a signal to go ape. What's the solution here? A general draw down of US assets, signaling to Iran and other adversaries that the US is lowering the temperature while Israel is doing everything in it's power short of nuking Rafah to raise those same temperatures.
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Apr 3, 2024 16:20
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 16:50 |
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Bored As gently caress posted:There's little to no way we are going to draw down forces in Syria and Iraq with ISIS still there. I'm sure that math will stay the same when Iran-linked militias start ramping up drone/mortar/artillery attacks on American bases that generate significant casualties.
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Apr 3, 2024 20:18
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