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A.o.D. posted:Perun's content to date have been pretty universally safe for all potential outlets and consumers. His presentation is fairly heavily sanitized and clinical. 70+ minute PowerPoint presentations are explicitly banned in at least four major law of armed conflict treaties, but they weren't written with nonstate actors in mind.
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Nov 5, 2023 19:59
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Count Roland posted:Comparing a floating dock whose construction has not yet started to Kaliningrad is quite the take. Lets see if the dock is even completed. I think the more likely result is a dock, getting built / overseen by Americans, gets blown up along with those Americans, and with catastrophic results for the region. Everyone will use not blowing up the boats as a bargaining chip and eventually it will be determined their presence is aiding the other team and attacks will be motivated. An attack will be costly, but Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will all be willing to pay the price in gold and blood. Even if everything goes perfect and nobody touches the boats and nobody does anything fucky using the boats and somehow foreign aid does come in with no strings attached, it will be decried as an act of western imperialism or an western plot. I think the planners will recognize this and there will be a lot of pushback on building the pier. Unless this gains a lot of support, this is going to die a bureaucratic death. Alchenar posted:Israel does not want a SPOD that's within mortar range of everyone and their mother in Gaza in order to manage logistics into an area that is never more than 12km across. This is all about managing a flow of goods into Gaza in a manner where there is no possibility of smuggling. I think it's also about sovereignty and law of the sea. By setting up controls from the coast, there's more standing for the countries overseeing aid to tell Israel they don't actually get a vote on this unless they want to vote with a missile. Right now if I'm driving through your territorial waters and then on your roads past your checkpoints, you get a say and much of the world powers agree because they don't like the idea of foreign powers doing whatever they like on their soil. From the sea, Israel will have to enforce any kind of claim, that claim will not be consistent with UNCLOS and the US has a long tradition of telling even allies to shove it when they place restrictions beyond UNCLOS on the use of the sea. Israel will still have other levers though, and I don't see this actually happening as described above. piL fucked around with this message at 16:53 on Mar 10, 2024 |
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Mar 10, 2024 16:38
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Vengarr posted:Went looking for why Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in the first place and came across this quote: B. A. Friedman (not the other Friedman thr reader is thinking of) put forward an brief deviation in "On Operations" of how the "myth" of the operational level of war probably emerged from some poor translations of Clauswitz, and how the whole model works better as a dichotomy with operation art as a means vice a trichotomy. I wonder if this war will be used as an example lf what happens when independent and empowered operations level escaping and driving the strategy and tactics vice strategy driving the operations.
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Apr 14, 2024 21:01
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Kchama posted:I don't think they couldn't have telegraphed it? As far as I know, Iran does not have a particularly good route to firing stuff at Israel. It's why they had to shout at everyone in the path not to shoot them down or they'll get big mad. Pretty much anything they could have done to Israel directly would be very obvious. I'd be very interested to see the paths of the strikes if that's available OS somewhere. I suspect that one struggle Iran will have, even if Israel continues to isolate itself from the rest of the world, is convincing all the foreign and local forces in Syria, Iraq, Jordan and the Red Sea that these attacks are not for them in a way that is convincing, not going to be leaked to the Israelis and is a focused strike.
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Apr 15, 2024 00:15
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