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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Thread's off to a great start so far.

Actual content:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/hamas-prepared-for-a-long-war-with-israel-as-concerns-for-hostages-in-gaza-grow

Israel is claiming that they've killed more than 1500 Hamas troops inside of Israel.

Even if that number is inflated a bit, that's way more than the "dozens" of troops that were initially reported to have crossed the border.

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008


Looks like Israel's about to get their very own Fallujah.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Cugel the Clever posted:

Things may be heating up with Hezbollah. Both sides seem like they've tried to hold back in the last few days, with violent incidents being sporadic, but neither side is willing to fully ignore what they perceive as the other's aggression, so retaliation is ramping up. Hopefully won't boil over...

They've already threatened to throw in with Hamas if Israel invades Gaza. So things aren't looking promising.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Fivemarks posted:

Huh. Looks like a bunch of early reports of Hamas atrocities were either fake, or blown out of proportion to justify a hardline "We have to kill all the vermin" stance. So, uh....

Got a source for this? Because reporting coming out of well, everywhere, is that you're wrong.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Fivemarks posted:

have you got a legitimate confirmed source that the palestineans are beheading babies? Because that's fake
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/factcheck:-israel-has-no-information-on-hamas-murdering-babi


The claims that a pregnant woman was dissecting alive by Hamas soldiers with Bayonets? Well that happened. IN the 80's. Just it was done to Lbeanese refugees by Christian militiamen with support from the Israelis https://www.arabnews.com/node/2162166/amp

I don't think anyone here posted about either of these things?

Fivemarks posted:

Imperialist and settler colonialist forces love inventing or massively blowing out of proportion atrocities by the people they're imperializing, both to get public support on their side for solving the "native problem" and to justify their own crimes as retribution. Which isn't to say plenty of times, those attacks don't happen- but often they're just another chain in a link of violence started by settler colonialism.

It's a bit like saying that Custer's Last Stand was an evil massacre of a brave american force by evil natives, and not asking "Hey why were those Americans there?"

Please tell us our your view on the 260 people that Hamas murdered at the music festival and the footage of them parading dead women through the streets.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Let's also put aside that jews and arabs have been inhabiting Israel/Palestine for thousands of years. Israelis can only be settlers / colonizers in this context, even though modern day Israel and Palestine themselves were a British colony until after World War II.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Fivemarks posted:

I mean, yeah, Israelis are basically a Settler Colonialist state. Same for White Americans and Canadians and Mexicans and most of the Americas. Same for Australia and New Zealand.

Edit: This is not me saying that genocide or "Push them into the sea is good", mind you.

You have no idea what you're even talking about. You do realize that the vast majority of Israelis are historically from Israel, right? Like their ancestors have lived there for thousands of years?

psydude
Apr 1, 2008


Hey thanks for putting words in my mouth and also making my point at the same time. This guy was literally arguing that all Israelis are colonizers and thus we shouldn't feel bad when they're murdered. I'm as vehemently opposed to Israel's apartheid of Palestine and Netanyahu's cynical exploitation of the rivalry between Hamas and Fatah as anyone, but come the gently caress on.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Fivemarks posted:

I am already going to regret making this post but gently caress it.

Let's say its the 1870's. Where does the line between "Settler Colonialism'd Land" and "Our Land" lay in America?

Edit: I may have said that Israel is a Settler Colonial state, but that doesn't mean the solution to the problem is "Kill'em all and drive them into the sea". I sure as hell didn't say that. I just said it's a Settler Colony, same as America or canada or Mexico or Australia or New Zealand. I certainly don't think any of those states should have their non native populations killed and murdered.

You're really missing the point here - the majority of Israelis are native to Israel just like the Palestinians. There can be more than one ethnic/religious group that have long historical ties to a region.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Diarrhea Elemental posted:

The bolded part makes this ironic, especially considering you got his edit in your quote too.

Did you not read his previous post?

quote:

It's a bit like saying that Custer's Last Stand was an evil massacre of a brave american force by evil natives, and not asking "Hey why were those Americans there?"

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Diarrhea Elemental posted:

We're talking about people who within living memory had their poo poo taken away by force and had their own country turned into an apartheid state against them, with every ugly indignity and outrage possible visited on them constantly. Who exactly is shocked when some of those people absolutely lose their poo poo and, not being morally justified but in a completely unsurprising turn, take out all of that in any direction possible and in the most unspeakable of ways? And if we see a follow-up post:

Conveniently, the state in question has non-native populations concentrated in two geographical areas that are currently subject to gross violation of basic human rights and continued invasion by Israeli settlers colonizing Palestinian settlements. One side is historically native with long ties to the region, one side was disenfranchised in living memory and currently lives under the thumb of the other side currently.

For the record, I agree with you. But I also think three things can be true simultaneously:

1) Israelis and Palestinians are both native to the contemporary area of Israel and Palestine and in a perfect world they'd both live peacefully among each other and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
2) As was already pointed eloquently, the Israeli government has pursued a policy of colonization inside of Palestine and Israelis living within Palestinian territory are colonizers. Israelis living within Israel are not "colonizers"
3) The Israeli government's policy of containment and apartheid particularly toward Gaza has been an absolute humanitarian and security failure.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

They did comment on it, but didn't say much other than to confirm the findings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...post_type=share

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

bulletsponge13 posted:

The beheading thing sounds much like the fictional war crimes propagandized in every war. I'm not saying it didn't happen, but that it fails the smell test. I have no doubt that militants killed civilians there- possibly in horrific ways that will caste new nightmares into the historical record- beheading babies takes a level of inhumanity few seem to have. The fact that the IDF is denying it, and the only source seems to be the same fake looking newscast, I don't think it happened that way.


Mosst people have no idea what happens to a human body confronted with ballistic science. 5.56 can remove limbs on an adult; shrapnel will fillet you like a trout. This very well could have been like the crimes of Haditha, where the assaulting force just fragged every room, and then swept through.

Bullets do horrible things to tiny bodies.

I'm not really sure how debating exactly how the babies were murdered really changes the fact that babies were murdered, but the IDF isn't denying it anymore.

quote:

And here's another line from the Israeli military update - spokesman Jonathan Conricus says that Hamas militants did behead babies during their deadly wave of attacks at the weekend.

Conricus says a coroner who visited the aftermath of the massacre at Kibbutz Be'eri had seen the children's bodies and confirmed how they died.

"I admit it took us some time to really understand and to verify that report, and it was hard to believe that even Hamas could perform such a barbaric act," he says.

"I think we can now say, with relative confidence, that this is what Hamas did... there were bodies scattered everywhere, mutilated."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...post_type=share

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

That Works posted:

It doesn't change the fact that babies were killed, but there's a bit of a difference between "babies were killed after enemy soldiers fragged multiple rooms" vs "enemy soldiers purposefully cut heads off of children" and that BBC link doesn't really make it any clearer.

For the record, I do agree that it's probably just the result of how bullets work, but it's notable that the IDF has stopped denying it outright.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

bulletsponge13 posted:

E- I'm not supporting either side, but it's hard not to find some sympathy for the people of Gaza; I feel the same way about Hamas as I did about the insurgents in Iraq: what else would we expect? Reminded me of that verse from the Tyler Childers song "Long Violent History".

What limited research has been done suggests that there's actually very little popular support for Hamas among Gazans, but it's not like they really have a choice there.

For their part, Hamas is likely hoping that Israel will overreact and launch a full invasion so they can rack up the IDF body count. And unfortunately, it seems like Israel is going to walk right into it.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

The establishment of the Israeli and Egyptian blockade of Gaza was a result of the Hamas violently seizing power and dissolving the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, which was the internationally recognized governing body. The resulting security and humanitarian disasters were entirely Israel's fault, but most discussions seem to forget that there was a compelling event that prompted it in the first place.

Discussions around this topic are difficult because I think we're all conditioned to believe that everything must have a definitive "good" side and a definitive "bad" side. Dealing with the nuances and complexities of the historical and contemporary realities is exhausting.

psydude fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Oct 12, 2023

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

It's insane that Israel didn't have an OPLAN for how to deal with the removal of Hamas by force.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Haven't seen it posted in here yet, but apparently Israel bombed the airports in Damascus and Aleppo to disrupt Iranian supplies to Hezbollah.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

The HiG and the Taliban shot plenty of recoilless rounds at us in Afghanistan in '13-'14 and had actually started lobbing them into the FOB because they came in at a shallow enough trajectory that they wouldn't always trigger the CRAM. They were more accurate than mortars but obviously had a problem with standoff distance. Still, they'd usually manage to pop off 3-4 at a time before high-tailing it.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Laughing Zealot posted:

Does Hamas even possess rockets/weapons capable of leveling buildings like a hospital?

Sort of. They aren't the Taliban lobbing 107mm rockets at FOBs. They've been supplied with fairly powerful rockets and even SRBMs by Iran (which were on full display during their attack). I don't think it's anything capable of leveling an entire hospital individually, but if one went off and set off a bunch of secondaries then it's feasible.

This was definitely an Israeli airstrike though.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

FrozenVent posted:

How are they getting SRBM into Gaza? I thought Israël had the place tightly locked down.

I’m not doubting it, just curious about the mechanics of it from a professional viewpoint.

I have no idea. I do know that they have their own home-grown arms manufacturing base that operates in the aforementioned tunnels beneath the city. If I had to hazard a guess, there's probably a healthy amount of "Red Army carrying disassembled T-34s across the Urals" happening as well.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

IDF is saying the propellant is what caused the explosion. Some of the failed Russian S-300 launches caused fairly big explosions, so I suppose it's plausible.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Some of the rockets that Hamas fired on the first day managed to reach north of Tel-Aviv. One would think that they would have already used their longer range stuff early on, but is it possible that something with that kind of range could do the job?

Israel tends to hand-wave away collateral damage, so the degree to which they're pushing back on this makes me think they're either right or they realize that they really hosed up.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Herstory Begins Now posted:

i am perplexed where the idea that a jdam or a single specific type of palestinian rocket are the only two possibilities even came from

I'm impressed by how much some people are digging in on their preferred narrative.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Per WSJ, a growing number of independent analysts are disputing the notion that it was an air strike. The US has stated flat out that it wasn't, and so far the US military has erred on the side of not commenting on what's happening. The air burst theory really feels like a reach here as well.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-ea...share_permalink

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

It’s true that Israel has committed war crimes and engaged in illegal collective punishment of civilians, proudly, even without mention of the hospital. So if somehow we could know 100000% that Israel was not responsible for the hospital, you still end up with dozens of other Israeli attacks on medical facilities and healthcare workers, civilians, and cutting off good water and electricity to civilians and humanitarian medical and aid supply systems.

You're correct, but the issue is that nobody in power in the Arab world cared about any of those other things. Hamas' propaganda victory around this specific incident has made it impossible for them to quietly side with Israel against Hamas and makes it more difficult for the US and other countries to pressure Israel into a diplomatic solution.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

Well, this simply is not true, jfc,

I hven’t seen an :ironicat: this heavy handed in a long time. Saying “gee, it is shocking how everyone else (not me) is stuck in their own narrative bubble (but not me)”

If it's not true, then why have various Arab states been quietly normalizing diplomatic and trade relations with Israel for the past 5 years?

e: Also who the gently caress pissed in your cornflakes?

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

Dude, you have a LOT of work to do to make a coherent argument that Arab leaders did not care about Israel’s actions over the last two weeks, until the hospital.

Personally, rather than doing that work, I recommend you just admit you wrote something very ignorant and untrue.

It is not going to be hard for poster after poster to dogpile you with evidence that leaders of Arab-led countries (and other countries) did not approve of Israel’s collective punishments and striking civilians over the last couple weeks.

Calm down, I think we're discussing different things and talking past each other. I took the context of your post to mean the post-2006 history of Israel's actions in Palestine up until this current war. Despite Israel's ongoing apartheid and indiscriminate bombing of civilians during that time, Arab leaders still decided to patch things up. Yeah, the last two weeks have changed the tone entirely, but the hospital bombing blew the lid off of the whole affair to a much more substantial degree than anything previously.

psydude fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Oct 19, 2023

psydude
Apr 1, 2008


Did you miss my most recent post, or do you just assume that I'm posting in bad faith here? Because I honestly did think you were talking about the pre-war period since the guy you quoted was talking about his time in the IDF during the 2nd Lebanon war in 2006. For the record, I do agree with everything you posted, and yes, I recognize that many Arab countries have been critical of Israel since they started sealing off and bombing Gaza.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Simply put, the point I was trying to (and apparently failed to) make is for however bad the diplomatic situation deteriorated prior to the hospital bombing, it feels like it was an inflection point in public sentiment where Arab leaders now can't engage constructively with Israel even if they want to.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

US intelligence is saying with high confidence it wasn't an Israeli munition that caused the hospital blast, but that they also can't attribute it to any specific Palestinian militant group.

Non-paywalled link:

https://wapo.st/409oBGd


quote:

The ultimate assessment that the strike was not the result of an Israeli weapon was based on two primary factors, the officials said. First, the damage from the strike was consistent with a rocket, and not an Israeli munition, such as a bomb dropped from the air or an artillery round, which would have caused significant structural damage to the hospital building and left a large crater. Videos and images show “only light structural damage,” one of the officials said.

Second, analysts were able to track the trajectory based on videos shot from four locations. Two cameras captured the flight of the projectile, which analysts judge to have been launched within the Gaza Strip, the official said. The rocket then traveled northeast, and about 10 seconds after launch, the motor became unstable, the official said. The rocket’s plume fluctuated in intensity, and a few seconds later, analysts observed a large flash. That, the official said, was the motor failing.

As a result of the failure, the rocket changed direction, the official said. The rocket came apart and the motor struck the ground, followed by the warhead, which landed at the hospital and caused a large explosion, the official said.

In the days since the strike, analysts have scoured open sources looking for any debris at the site that might tie the projectile to Israel, but they have found none, the official said. No Palestinians have come forward with such evidence as they would be expected to do if they had proof that Israel was to blame, the official added.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Based upon the second paragraph in my quote block, it sounds like the US has access to footage that the news media hasn't seen. And since it hasn't been made available to the public yet, I'm guessing it's not OSINT.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

Give ‘em Cyprus and call it a day.

Ah yes, another former British colony with absolutely no territorial disputes.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Also the second part of the quote very clearly qualifies the statement.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

BUUNNI posted:

This means the US will keep sending as many bombs, munitions, and fuel as the Zionists need. He does go on to say that they will have “conversations” but it’s clear the US is backing a genocide.

It really feels like you intentionally omitted the rest of the quote in your block there.

"but since the beginning we have, and continue to have, conversations about the manner they are doing this."

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

That Works posted:

What does that mean to you?

Because so far they have been getting cover in the UN from the US and I'm not getting the impression the IDF is operating with great restraint here because of outside influence myself.

I take it as a notable departure from the previous (and historical) position that US support for Israel is unqualified and without question. This is probably about as close as we're gonna get to a public rebuke.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

orange juche posted:

But something something rapture Armageddon.

Seriously, the US' Israel policy is significantly driven by evangelical wing nuts who believe that the nation of Israel is essential for Jesus to come back and rapture all the right people and leave the sinners on a ruined earth

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Zionism

Yep. Before the Reagan administration, US policy regarding Israel was (to a large degree) in the interest of counteracting Soviet influence in the region. Since Reagan began recruiting evangelicals into the Republican party, it's become the primary driver.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

PurpleXVI posted:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1829092/Erdogan-Turkey-Israel-war-Gaza

On the one hand, I'm happy that someone is actually standing up for the Palestinians and he's saying a lot of true things. On the other hand, Turkey has so many other war crimes to their name that I was neither expecting them nor given any particular feeling that they'd lessen the war crimes going on.

On the third mutant hand growing out of my abdomen, there's no way he's serious, right? I mean he's an unstable weirdo, but there's not a chance in hell and this just has to be blowhard bullshit for domestic consumption... right?

Erdogan has basically wrecked the Turkish economy, so stoking militant Islamist sentiments is one of the ways he's been distracting from the hyperinflation and poor government response to the earthquake earlier on the year. That, and doubling down on the Gulenist conspiracies and anti-Kurdish angle.

It's extremely unlikely he's going to do anything.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Kith posted:

coordinated efforts to gently caress with children have been a thing for a while

it can be about seeding propaganda, or it can be about just wanting to hurt kids, or a secret third thing that only the freaks who do it understand

Are you seriously implying that the Elsagate thing was an Israeli plot?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

psydude fucked around with this message at 09:31 on Oct 31, 2023

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

WSJ is reporting that the US apparently stopped collecting intelligence in Palestine after 9/11 and just trusted the Israelis to do it instead.

(non-paywalled link)

https://www.wsj.com/politics/nation...share_permalink

Oops.

quote:

WASHINGTON—U.S. intelligence agencies all but stopped spying on Hamas and other violent Palestinian groups in the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S., instead directing resources to the hunt for the leaders of al Qaeda and, later, Islamic State, according to U.S. officials familiar with the shift.

Calculating that Hamas had never directly threatened the U.S. and burdened with other spying priorities, Washington ceded the responsibility to Israel, confident that its aggressive security services would detect any threat, the U.S. officials said. It should have been “a well-placed bet,” said one senior counterterrorism official.

With more than 30 Americans dead and 10 missing, mounting fears of a regional war, and billions of dollars in U.S. military hardware headed to the Middle East since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, some officials say the U.S. misjudged the threat to U.S. national security.

“In terms of intelligence failures, which really do lie mostly on Israel, I think we should also share some blame for missing this event,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a retired CIA operations officer with extensive counterterrorism experience. “Ceding the target to the Israelis now looks to have had consequences.”

...

“I don’t recall at the time anybody saying you were focusing too much on al Qaeda,” a former senior CIA official said.

Emile Nakhleh, who led the CIA’s Political Islam analysis unit, said Israel and the U.S. have misread Hamas before, including when it shocked the West by winning elections in 2006 after Israel left Gaza. U.S. intelligence assessed at the time that important factions within the group favored engagement with Israel, but the prospect was never explored, said Nakhleh, now director of National Security Programs at the University of New Mexico.

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