|
I do think there’s an interesting question related to Stringent’s post, which is if these kind of low intensity operations are legitimately effective as a stand alone measure, or if they just end up generating favorable PR for whoever is on the receiving end. They have been part of America’s recent response to the militia groups in Iraq, but my impression with that was most of the work was done through actual negotiations. If you don’t have a line of communication already built are these just a fool’s errand?
|
#
¿
Apr 14, 2024 16:55
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 21:37 |
|
|
I wouldn’t downplay last night too too much. Despite the rather choreographed nature of the whole thing and extended flight times Iran still put a LOT of stuff in the air for what looks like a decently coordinated ToT.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 14, 2024 17:15
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:The Iranian operation was purely for PR. In that, it wasn't intended to militarily degrade Israel. I was thinking more of Yemen, but yeah you could probably fit the recent Iranian strike under this umbrella as well. It’s a crowd pleaser but won’t actually deter Israel, the only thing that will do that is some third party telling the Israelis to knock it off.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 15, 2024 08:49
|
|
|
Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone. This isn’t enough to deter Israel. I’m almost positive they think the US would go “Aw shucks!” and proceed to fight Iran for them anyway down to the last American. Israel only really responds to threats (when it’s not having a violent meltdown instead). not a value-add fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 16, 2024 |
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2024 20:32
|
|
|
Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2024 21:45
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 21:37 |
|
|
Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2024 22:32
|
|