- CarlCX
- Dec 14, 2003
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It's the UFC! It's not terrible! Jon Jones was supposed to be here and no one is entirely surprised he's not!
Well, it's Wednesday, so here's double-post writing.
CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 81: REPLANTING A POTTER'S FIELD
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11 FROM MADISON SQUARE GARDEN IN NEW YORK CITY
EARLY PRELIMS PRELIMS 3 PM PST / 6 PM EST | PRELIMS 5 / 8 | MAIN CARD 7 / 10 VIA PAY-PER-VIEW
Every time a championship changes hands, I write a new entry into the endlessly lengthy champion carousel at the bottom of each month's report, and every time there's relevant news or an update on who they'll be fighting next, I append it to the end of their entry.
When Jon Jones won the heavyweight championship of the world this past March, before I wrote his entry, I stared at the wall making the Tina Belcher groan for half an hour.
And when the UFC announced Jon Jones' next title defense this past summer, I wrote this:
Jon Jones is your heavyweight champion, and we are all damned. The UFC finally, formally announced his fight with Stipe Miocic on November 11th; I'll believe it when we get there.
So now we have Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall for an interim title with almost no time to prepare. Which, unless I'm missing one--Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill, Sean Strickland vs Israel Adesanya, the UFC's failed attempt to make Strickland take a short-notice title fight against Khamzat Chimaev, Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski II, and now this--makes five times this year the UFC has tried to set up a fight for the sport's most prestigious world championships with less than a month's notice. It's almost like the divisions and the matchmaking are falling apart.
And what can you do but make like Molly Coddle and just start picking up the pieces.
honestly: it's not bad.
MAIN EVENT: THE HOTTEST POTATO
 LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Jiří Procházka (29-3-1, #1) vs Alex Pereira (8-2, #3)
Normally, I would subject you all to a lengthy rant about the long history of chaos in the Light Heavyweight division, but if you're reading this, chances are I already subjected you to it in a much longer format! If you want the full story, check out The Sins of the Snowball King: A Light Heavyweight Championship History, in all its terrible glory.
But for those who don't want to read 21,000 words about one of the worst weight classes in the sport, or for those who just need a primer, here's a real quick catchup on exactly how we got here:
- Two years ago Glover Teixeira upset Jan Błachowicz to win the title despite being in his mid-forties and on the precipice of retirement
- One year later Jiří Procházka beat Glover in an incredibly exciting fight of the year candidate, necessitating an immediate rematch
- Jiří Procházka promptly exploded his shoulder, went on the shelf for at least a year and vacated the belt
- Glover refused a short-notice fight with Magomed Ankalaev, so the UFC booked Ankalaev vs Jan Błachowicz to fill the void instead
- Despite 90% of media scores going for Ankalaev, the judges scored the fight a draw, meaning no champion
- Instead of involving either man or any other higher-ranked fighters in the mix, the UFC booked Contender Series winner Jamahal Hill vs Glover Teixeira
- This past January, Jamahal Hill beat Glover and we finally had a champion again, meaning everything was fixed!
- Until July, when Jamahal blew out his achilles playing charity basketball and had to vacate the title
- By the time this could be straightened out again Jiří Procházka was healthy, rendering the whole experiment unnecessary
- Also the new top contender is a middleweight with one fight in the weight class
Light Heavyweight was the UFC's premiere division at one point. It wasn't the best--it's never been as good as Welterweight and Lightweight and Featherweight usurped both of them--but it was one of its most popular and most celebrated.
And now we have had seven title strippings or vacations in the last eight years, and the only successful title defense in the last four years (no, Dominick Reyes doesn't count, fight me about it) was against a middleweight who has yet to win at 205 pounds, and as of now, in fact, your Light Heavyweight top ten looks like this:
- Champion-in-absentia Jamahal Hill, who is injured and won't be back for who knows how long
- #1 Jiří Procházka, who broke his poo poo and is only now back after a year and a half
- #2 Magomed Ankalaev, who is currently on a two-fight streak consisting of a Draw and a No Contest
- #3 Alex Pereira, a former middleweight with one fight at 205 pounds in his life
- #4 Jan Błachowicz, the man Pereira beat, whose only victory in almost three years was a fluke injury
- #5 Aleksandar Rakić, the aforementioned fluke injury, who will have been gone almost two years by the time he fights
- #6 Nikita Krylov, who's on a winning streak! Hooray!
- #7 Johnny Walker, the other half of Ankalaev's No Contest, who is now stuck twiddling his thumbs for a rematch
- #8 Anthony Smith, who's 1 for his last 3 and keeps openly pondering retirement
- #9 Volkan Oezdemir, who, uh, well, he beat a guy named Bogdan Guskov we may or may not ever see again
- #10 Ryan Spann, who's on a two-fight losing streak and can't seem to beat anyone in the top ten
So there's no real champion, there aren't really any up-and-coming contenders, 1/3 of the top ten are openly pondering retirement, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better.
The gyre widens, the void screams, chaos reigns and nothing matters. Which, as a fan of this sport, is an endlessly frustrating cycle I'm deeply irritated to be back in.
But it does lead to some hilarious possibilities, and boy, this fight is one of them.
Honestly, everything about Jiří Procházka is kind of hilarious. He's a Czech samurai who trains in the woods, stabs trees and talks about living by the code of Bushido, but he was inspired to fight by Ranker.com's 19th best action movie of 2008, Never Back Down. He lives a pastoral life in a cottage without gas or heat but he lists his fighting heroes as Scorpion and Liu Kang and tries to imitate moves from Tekken. He's the #1 205-pounder on the planet and fights like a madman with no fear of exhaustion or death, but one fight ago he was nearly knocked out by the desiccated 0-for-his-last-4 remains of Dominick Reyes. He beat Glover Teixeira, and it was the fight of the year, but it was the fight of the year because Teixeira almost killed him repeatedly, too.
He's the best kind of throwback. In an age of carefully-managed offensive output and deeply thought-out strategy, Jiří just wants to punch you until either you've been punched so much you can no longer move or he's punched so much that he can punch no more.
Which is the kind of thing Alex Pereira desperately needs. Pereira was the talk of the town when he got a UFC contract back in 2021 not so much for his 3-1 rookie record, but because he had defeated Israel Adesanya twice as a kickboxer. The UFC carefully navigated him away from anyone who stood a chance at forcing him to grapple, and within three fights, he was getting his shot at the king--and he won! He stopped Israel loving Adesanya and became the Middleweight Champion of the God Damned World. For five months. Then Adesanya killed him dead in two rounds in the rematch. But that was fine, because Pereira, who is as big as Jon Jones, was very, very tired of the weight cut, and had planned to move to 205 pounds, win or lose.
Which he did, this past July, with a triumphant split decision over Jan Błachowicz. And the crowd went--pretty mild. Here's the thing: On his merits as both a kickboxer and a mixed martial artist, Alex Pereira is probably the best striker in the division, and arguably, the UFC. But his guns-blazing aggression got him melted by Adesanya in their second encounter, and the Pereira who showed up against Jan was measured and tentative enough that he wound up just a coinflip away from losing.
Against Jan Błachowicz, however, that's understandable. Jan is smart, tactical and defensive, and the first fighter who presented enough of a grappling threat to stifle Pereira given a chance. Pereira struggled to get his offense together because every combination he threw was a liability.
But Jiří Procházka does not pose that problem. Jiří Procházka, if anything, is the solution to that problem. He chains spinning elbows into other, separate spinning elbows. He throws flying knees and eschews his own defense if it means getting to throw back harder.
This is a wild, powerful, savage of a striker against an extremely measured, technical kickboxer.
And it's also a weirdly historically significant fight. If Jiří wins this fight, he'll have become a two-time UFC champion after just four fights with the company, which is a pretty bonkers statistic that's pretty unlikely to ever be matched. If Alex Pereira wins this fight, he'll have become a two-division UFC champion after just seven fights with the company, which is an insane statistic that probably won't be seen again until the UFC finally caves and adds Women's Atomweight, Men's Super Lightweight and Cruiserweight to the roster.
Is it as much an artifact of the shambles the Light Heavyweight division is in as the quality of either fighter? Oh, absolutely. One hundred percent. We're crowning the King of the Ashes, here. We're in the same territory here as the way the UFC had two cross-divisional champions in its first 22 years of existence and six in its next 8. Should we keep having fun with it anyway?
I mean, gently caress, what's the alternative?
I think history is on Pereira's side, here. I love Jiří Procházka's fighting style, but here's the thing: It succeeds based on his ability to be bigger and tougher and hit harder than whoever's offense he's walking through. Volkan Oezdemir hurt him. Dominick Reyes hurt him. Glover Teixeira almost decapitated him several times. Alex is bigger, stronger, rangier and a much better striker than all of those men--and he has Glover in his corner, as his coach, to draw on. Jiří is not only fighting an incredibly dangerous style matchup, he's doing it after a year of injury recovery. His best chances for success here are going to come from drowning Alex. Put pressure on him, smother him with strikes, force him to defend takedowns to draw his attention away from strikes, and do not, under any circumstances, give him room to chip and counter and time out openings for his combinations.
But Jiří likes to go for the knockout, and his commitment to that hunt will get him hunted in return. Eventually, painfully, I'm picking ALEX PEREIRA BY TKO.
CO-MAIN EVENT: THE BIG GOLD BELT
INTERIM HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Sergei Pavlovich (18-1, #2) vs Tom Aspinall (13-3, #4)
When trying to discuss Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 last month, I said a thing:
This is a great fight. In a company that is absolutely addicted to rematches it is, easily, the most anticipated rematch they could possibly promote. And the fact that it is happening here and now is an absolute failure on the UFC's part.
[...]
It's bullshit that a fight this good and important is getting thrown together this way, it's bullshit that fighters who were promised things by the UFC had them taken away, and it's bullshit that half the consideration for this fight is no longer how much Islam learned about wrestling Volkanovski the first time around, or how much confidence Volkanovski got from going the distance and nearly knocking Islam out, or how Islam's adjusted his cardio, or how Volkanovski's prepared for yet another rematch, one of his specialties.
It sucks to have this rematch in any way compromised when it was completely, totally unnecessary.
Look, it's the worst-kept secret in the world that Jon Jones is here for a good time, not a long time. There's a reason he won the heavyweight title and called out the only person in the entire top fifteen who hasn't actually fought in almost three years. There's a reason he started talking about retiring after he beat Stipe Miocic. There's a reason the UFC made it clear within minutes of announcing this interim championship fight that when Jon Jones DOES come back at some indeterminate point next year, instead of unifying the title or fighting the #1 contender or even pretending to care about whatever else has happened in the division over the 12+ months since last he fought, he will, still, fight Stipe Miocic (and then maybe retire).
Heavyweight is going to have two championships: The vanity title, which belongs to Jon Jones and will come back whenever he does, and the Real title, which is here, being fought over by the, realistically, #1 and #3 heavyweights in the UFC.
And it infuriates me, because Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall are both fighters who deserve to be fighting for a heavyweight championship. I would favor either of them over a Jon Jones or a Stipe Miocic in the present day. Both have proven themselves far more than a Jon Jones or a Stipe Miocic in the present day. If you'd told me Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall was going to determine the post-Jones-retirement world champion in 2024, I would have believed you without question, and I would have been thrilled to see them fight.
With preparation. And full training camps.
For a real belt.
Instead, we're getting it as a two-weeks-notice late-replacement co-main event. The last time a heavyweight championship match didn't main event a card was thirteen goddamn years ago, because Shane Carwin literally murdering Frank Mir wasn't as profitable as Georges St-Pierre vs Dan Hardy. But here we are.
Both men deserve better. Sergei Pavlovich is a living loving wrecking ball. After seven fights and half a decade his entire UFC career can be rewatched in less time than it takes to complete an episode of Frasier. Only three of his fights have ever made it out of a first goddamn round, and the only time he's ever lost it was because Alistair goddamn Overeem sat on top of him and punched him in the face repeatedly. He dropped Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa in less than a minute. Seven months ago he easily sprawled on Curtis Blaydes, one of heavyweight's best wrestlers, and blasted him out in one round. He's on a six-fight first-round knockout streak, and the best way to illustrate just how ridiculous an accomplishment that is requires noting that Lewis, the all-time heavyweight knockout leader in UFC history, never managed more than two in a row.
Tom Aspinall was already the UFC's heir apparent a year ago and if he hadn't blown out his knee fighting Blaydes in 2022 he'd almost certainly have fought for the belt already. He's big, he's British, and unlike most of the people the UFC promotes with those two qualities, he's very, very good at fighting. Where most heavyweights, even Pavlovich, focus solely on power and fury, Aspinall is a genuinely well-rounded athlete who uses his bag of tricks to set up his finishes. And his fights are all finishes. His hands are strong and fast enough to drop guys like Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac, his wrestling is solid enough to just dumptruck Andrei Arlovski at will, and his grappling is scary enough to take a man like Alexander Volkov, who spent almost ten minutes on the ground with Fabricio Werdum, and snap his arm in minutes.
Pavlovich is a physical specimen with fist-based anger issues that no one can stop. Aspinall is one of the most legitimately well-rounded heavyweights in the world. I would have loved to see this fight with three months of camp, and I think, one day, we probably still will.
But on two weeks' notice? When Pavlovich was already preparing to be the backup fighter in case someone fell through, only for the UFC to, of course, not actually use him that way, and Aspinall is coming off the couch? Yeah. SERGEI PAVLOVICH BY TKO. Aspinall's extremely smart and well-rounded, and I think he has the tools to get through Pavlovich's flak field and drag him to the floor, but that takes a lot of practice and timing. In a pinch, you can't beat Pavlovich's power.
MAIN CARD: FINISH HER
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Jéssica Andrade (24-12, #5) vs Mackenzie Dern (13-3, #7)
I have been calling the FBI about arresting Jéssica Andrade's management all year, and inexplicably, history's greatest monsters are still running free. Andrade was riding high at the turn of 2023: She'd taken some time off to rehab injuries and group, she'd decided to focus on Women's Flyweight, and she'd battered Lauren Murphy to justify her status as a contender. And then Taila Santos had to drop out of a fight with Erin Blanchfield, so, with five days' notice, Andrade stepped in to face the most dangerous grappler in the division. And she got destroyed. It was an incredibly silly matchup to take and it led Andrade to go back on her word and drop right back down to strawweight, where, less than three months later, she took a fight with Xiaonan Yan, waded recklessly forward into fire, and got knocked out in less than a round. Ideally, you should take another break. Instead, Jéssica Andrade accepted another late replacement fight against another top-division grappler. This time she got choked out by Tatiana Suarez. That's three stoppage losses across two separate weight classes in six months.
If you're a responsible promoter, this is where you stop, sit your fighter down, and ask them what on Earth they are doing. If you're the UFC, this is when you call Mackenzie Dern and tell her she's got a live one. Management has been trying to fast-track Mackenzie into title contention for four straight years, and the last year has been no different. She was supposed to beat Xiaonan Yan at the end of 2022 and skate right into title contention--in a fight where it was made clear only Dern was up for a shot--but getting outstruck to a majority decision set her back. The UFC gave her seven months to recover, then booked her against the woman they use to put over everyone they want to succeed, Angela Hill. And it worked! Hill's lack of power (I'm sorry, Angie, you're one of my favorites but it's true) meant Dern could walk through her offense and chase her down both standing and on the ground. She couldn't get a stoppage--she may not always win, but Angie's one of the hardest people in the sport to stop--but she could demolish her with multiple 10-8 rounds and walk away with a lopsided decision.
And those are the two sides of this situation. This is the fifth fight Jéssica Andrade will have in 2023. She's lost three of them. By stoppage. When Mackenzie Dern lost her second fight of 2022 she got a long period of recovery and a fight against someone ranked six slots below her, which, somehow, still pushed her further up the ladder. When Jéssica Andrade gets stopped three times in six months, she gets Mackenzie Dern. I would love it if Andrade put one of those sledgehammers to work and scored an upset victory here, but she's been looking worse and worse every time we see her, and Dern has been steadily improving, and I just cannot help feeling we're seeing a forcible changing of the guard, here. MACKENZIE DERN BY SUBMISSION.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Matt Frevola (11-3-1, #14) vs Benoît Saint-Denis (12-1 (1), NR)
And here, we have our all-action madness fight of the night. Matt Frevola is an accomplished wrestler. Matt Frevola is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt! Matt Frevola does not care about either of these facts. Matt Frevola stopped attempting takedowns in fights years ago. He wants to swing hooks. It is the well from which his joy springs. He's been on a tear recently, punching his way slowly up into the top fifteen, but that all-fun all-the-time style starts to give diminishing returns as you climb the ranks. People assumed his last fight against Drew Dober would see him finally adopt a tactical approach again so as to minimize risk against a fellow big-handed brawler. As it turned out: Nope! Headkicks and superman punches. He actually faked a takedown just to chuck another hook. And it worked. He proved himself the bigger, better gunfighter and knocked Dober dead in a round.
Benoît Saint-Denis is a berserker, too, but he's a comparatively versatile one. He likes to walk forward behind long kicks, he likes to stick people with body shots to get them pinned to the cage, but he doesn't want the fight there. He wants you on the ground. He wants to wrestle you down, get to top position, and just erase your face with his fists and elbows. Benoît Saint-Denis understands that you have felt pangs of self-doubt about your appearance over the course of your life, and he wants to make sure you know that, to him, you are beautiful, because to him, every face is an equally perfect canvas to be Jackson Pollocked with blood and plasma. He's been trying as hard as possible to overcome his UFC debut, which was one of the most one-sided beatings in the company's history, and honestly, he's done pretty loving well: He's on a four-fight winning streak that just saw him stop Ismael Bonfim and Thiago Moisés back to back. He's established himself as relevant in the sport's biggest shark tank.
But Matt Frevola is a real scary shark. Frevola's takedown defense is statistically not the best, but those statistics are lopsided thanks to Arman Tsarukyan dumping him ten times in a single fight. Combined with Benoît's tendency to eat shots as a way of closing distance and getting in on his takedown attempts, MATT FREVOLA BY TKO feels awful likely.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Pat Sabatini (18-4) vs Diego Lopes (22-6)
While thinking about this fight, I came to a realization.
I don't feel great about it! But I also don't feel bad about it. And that, in truth, is the problem. I feel nothing for you, Pat Sabatini. I don't know if this is a problem with you or a problem with me. I like your submission holds! I like your heel hooks! But I cannot find it in myself to muster the energy to care if you win or lose. Maybe it's just because I watched you get wrecked by Damon Jackson and then watched Damon Jackson get wrecked by Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo and I've just been hurt so many times by wrestlers I like not making it to the top that I'm scared to allow myself to emotionally invest in you.
And it's so comparatively easy to get invested in Diego Lopes! He made the incredibly silly choice of taking on the undefeated, top-ten ranked Movsar Evloev on three goddamn days' notice as a late-replacement signee, and he almost beat him! He won a round and he probably hyperextended the poo poo out of Movsar's knee and in a saner world would have gotten a submission, but this is mixed martial arts, where grappling doesn't count and submissions are only real if you die. Lopes lost, but he and his turn-of-the-century-emo haircut came back three months later and submitted the poo poo out of Gavin "Guv'nor" Tucker, which brings me one step closer to never having go hear a ring announcer say "GAVIN "GUV'NOR" TUCKER" ever again, which is only more reason to love him.
But mostly? Sabatini's biggest strengths are his grounded submissions and Lopes, thus far, is a human blender full of discarded leg and arm bones. Sure, Sabatini's never been submitted, but neither had Tucker, and hell, neither had Evloev, and it didn't stop him then. DIEGO LOPES BY SUBMISSION.
PRELIMS: HANG ON LOOPY, LOOPY HANG ON
FLYWEIGHT: Steve Erceg (10-1, #14) vs Alessandro Costa (13-3, NR)
If the sport hadn't had so much crazy poo poo happen in the past five months, and if the fanbase didn't perennially devalue the Flyweight division, Steve Erceg's UFC debut would have been one of the better stories of the year. Seven years of toiling away in the Australian fight scene got Erceg on the UFC's radar--but as a feeder prospect, brought in to put over one of their newest Contender Series winners, Clayton Carpenter. But the #10 ranked David Dvořák lost his bout against Matt Schnell at the last minute, and Erceg was the lucky last-minute replacement volunteer. And he won! Four months prior Erceg was fighting a 4-3 guy in Perth, and now, he was beating a top ten flyweight in the goddamn world. Which is why, of course, he is ranked in the top ten and fighting for possible contendershipranked four slots below where the guy he beat was and defending his spot against a Contender Series winner. And it's not that I have anything against Alessandro Costa! He's great. He's fun and aggressive and he has an honest-to-god win by flying armbar. He put up a great fight against current top contender Amir Albazi on extremely short notice and he rebounded from ultimately being knocked out by just beating eight shades of hell out of poor Jimmy Flick this past summer.
He's great! He hits hard, he's a vicious opportunist and he kicks people in the legs until their legs stop working, which will always be one of the quickest ways to my heart. But he's also a bit overly aggressive, and Erceg showed a whole lot of promise as a smart, tactical fighter who was able to quickly adjust when his gameplan failed, and boy, I find that real hard to pick against. STEVE ERCEG BY DECISION.
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Tabatha Ricci (9-1, #10) vs Lupita Godinez (11-3, #13)
I'm in a bind, here. Every time Lupita Godinez fights I say the same exact thing: She's one of the best chain wrestlers in the division and if she remembers to wrestle, she'll win. It's as common a catchphrase of mine as "The Ultimate Fighter Number Goes Here (jesus christ)" and "Why are the ranked flyweights/bantamweights/women's competitors on the loving prelims." Which we've ALSO hit within our first two prelims, so thank you for keeping me addicted to Rolaids, UFC. But I can't use my catchphrase this time! Because Tabatha Ricci is a really, really good grappler. The only woman to actually beat her in the UFC thus far was Manon Fiorot, who was able to avoid Ricci's grappling by virtue of being half a goddamn foot taller than her. That fight, in fact, made Ricci go down to 115 just to keep it from ever happening again. Godinez might still be able to take Ricci down--she is, still, an extremely talented, agile wrestler--but for the first time in her UFC tenure, it's not actually her best bet.
So, Loopy: Ignore everything I have ever said. Your best weapon here is your pace. Do what you tried to do to Angela Hill and Cynthia Calvillo and just drown Ricci in offense. The floor is lava, but your fists are like birds holding knives in their beaks. LUPITA GODINEZ BY DECISION.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Mateusz Rębecki (18-1) vs Roosevelt Roberts (12-3)
It's time to watch someone spin the late replacement roulette wheel again. Mateusz Rębecki joined the UFC this year not as the near-undefeated top lightweight out of Poland but instead as a Contender Series winner, because that's all that gets you these days. Rębecki's wrecking ball ways have continued unabated in the UFC, as he walked through late replacement Nick Fiore in his debut and destroyed Loik Radzhabov in his sophomore appearance, but he was really hoping for a good, traditional, pre-scheduled opponent tonight. Unfortunately, Nurullo Aliev busted his leg. So now Roosevelt Roberts is back! Roberts was an early Contender Series baby, a 2018 winner who wound up in the UFC after just six professional fights, no losses, and multiple chances to show off an aggressive grappling game, a great gas tank, and, most importantly, the ability to be a lightweight despite being 6'2". That did not stop him from getting cut in 2021 after dropping three in a row. He was part of The Ultimate Fighter 31 (jesus christ) this past year, and, boy, it's beyond impressive how quickly that entire season has just slipped out of the collective MMA consciousness, but he was eliminated by eventual finalist Austin Hubbard.
But, hey: What better way is there to secure a contract than by taking a last-minute fight. It is, potentially, a very interesting matchup. Mateusz is, officially, the smallest lightweight in the UFC. Clay Guida and Rafa Garcia share his height, but at 66", he has by far the shortest reach. Roosevelt Roberts is half a foot taller and has more than half a foot of range on Rębecki. What's more, he's very good at forcing headstrong fighters into the clinch, which is where his big, dangerous guillotine chokes come from. But he's also, y'know, taking this fight on 4 days' notice. Is he in shape? Can he deal with a madman trying to kick his kneecaps apart? It's a dangerous fight, but I'm still going with MATEUSZ RĘBECKI BY TKO.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Nazim Sadykhov (9-1) vs Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3)
This is my sleeper fight of the card, personally. Nazim Sadykhov had a great night back in July. He took on Terrance McKinney, a fighter most people still generally believed in as a potential worldbeater, and he beat him! Tapped him right out! Did he have to cheat repeatedly to do it? Good lord, yes! The sequence that ended the fight relied specifically on Sadykhov defending a takedown by hanging onto the cage for dear life about five times in twenty seconds while Keith Peterson periodically slapped at his hand while not actually halting the action, resetting the position or, indeed, penalizing him in any way. Cheating: It's still the best strategy. Viacheslav Borshchev is one of the most potentially fun fighters to watch in the UFC. His striking is some of the most varied, fluid and dangerous in the Lightweight division, and that is, to be clear, the Lightweight division. His overhands, his leg kicks, his ability to weave combinations out of very limited space and his capacity for keeping opponents guessing by mixing bodyshots and headshots with no warning make him one of the most underratedly potent punchmen mixed martial arts has to offer.
But here's the thing: That offer is void if the opponent so much as dreams of trying to take him down. Slava Claus specced himself completely towards striking. He's been training with Team Alpha Male for years and he still struggles with wrestling in all of its forms. Which is problematic, because Nazim Sadykhov is a Judo and Sambo champion and he also has Matt loving Serra in his corner. But I'm psychically binding him from shooting any doubles. Today, I am both Judge Gabranth and Dana White. All wrestling is forbidden in the interests of fairness. VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV BY TKO.
EARLY PRELIMS: LOSING A WHOLE YEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT: Jared Gordon (19-6 (1)) vs Mark Madsen (12-1)
Jared Gordon is trying to redeem what has been an unfathomably cursed year. Last December the UFC slotted him in as the latest sacrifice on the altar of Conor McGregor Cloning Project #132 Paddy Pimblett, and Gordon extremely clearly upset marketing's apple cart and won the fight, and promptly lost not just a decision, but a unanimous decision, which was unanimously agreed by the fans to be the absolute worst of 2022. The UFC tried to make it up to him by booking him against Bobby Green in April, and that fight ended in a No Contest after Green launched himself headfirst into Gordon's jaw like a Tupolev torpedo and punched him out because the referee had, somehow, missed it. That referee? Keith Peterson. I hate it when Dominick Cruz has a point. In one of the most underratedly boneheaded moves the UFC has made this year, after a fight between Jim Miller and Ľudovít Klein fell apart, the UFC slotted Gordon in as a last-minute replacement, despite Gordon having been knocked out barely a month ago. Unsurprisingly, that fight fell apart before it started. Funnily enough, Mark Madsen, too, is ending the worst year of his professional career. The Danish wrestler spent six years--technically nine, but he took a break from MMA between 2014 and 2018 to do some silly thing called "the Olympics"--as one of the sport's undefeated prospects, a powerful, compact wrestler who overwhelmed everyone he fought. Well, almost everyone. Honestly, when he fought Clay Guida in 2021 and barely scraped out a split decision the world tugged its collar a little about his wrestling prospects against the top of the division. It was, unfortunately, prophetic. The last time we saw Madsen was last November, where he finally lost after simply being outwrestled and outgrappled by Grant Dawson.
Who just got knocked out by Bobby Green. It's like poetry. It rhymes. I like Madsen, but the same way Dawson was too wrestley and strong, I think Gordon's too fast and fluid, and too solid a defensive wrestler himself. JARED GORDON BY DECISION unless a loving light falls out of the rafters and hits him on the head, with the year he's been having.
BANTAMWEIGHT: John Castańeda (20-6) vs Kyung Ho Kang (19-9 (1))
The last time John Castańeda fought, I had a small existential crisis about it. I wrote of my difficulties with always assuming fighters would fight to their strengths instead of taking into account their foibles and tendencies, and I thought about how Castańeda was a great, fast, well-rounded fighter who tended to occasionally get sloppy in his aggression, and I altered my philosophical trajectory, took that tendency into account, and picked against him. At which point he, of course, fought a fantastic loving fight, jabbed and countered Muin Gafurov all night and won a great decision. So, clearly, the universe is telling me to go back to my old ways and take fighters more directly and literally. But I can't do that, because Kyung Ho Kang is nicknamed Mr. Perfect, which, taken literally, invalidates the whole experiment. Kang's actually going on eleven years in the UFC, which is incredible not just for its longevity, but for the fact that he might, right now, be getting the best wins of his career. Most of his tenure has been spent fighting the Guido Cannettis and Teruto Ishiharas of the world, and while I have an endless well of love for Teruto Ishihara and the happiness he's found living among Team Alpha Male's denizens and only rarely wearing shirts, they're not big resume highlights. Fighting a guy like Cristian Quińonez, who went toe to toe with Khalid Taha and won, and choking him out in two and a half minutes? That's the good stuff.
It's a real close fight, on paper. Castańeda's quicker and his striking's more varied, but Kang's bigger and stronger and I don't think Castańeda's ability to sneak in combinations by making opponents fear takedowns will work. I'm still leaning towards JOHN CASTAŃEDA BY DECISION but this feels like a real, real close fight.
FLYWEIGHT: Joshua Van (8-1) vs Kevin Borjas (9-1)
The Contender Series has become self-aware and is now, officially, eating the UFC itself. Joshua Van won the Fury FC Flyweight Championship last year, which, as with all regional titles, is redeemable for one (1) trip to the UFC. They contracted him for the Contender Series, but, in the show's eternal capacity as a backup roster of desperate fighters who will never say no, he was tapped to fight Zhalgas Zhumagulov on two weeks' notice instead. Best of all: He won! Skip the Contender Series altogether, go straight to Flyweight proper. Kevin "El Gallo Negro" Borjas wasn't too different. His Flyweight title came from Peru's Inka FC, and he, too, traded it for a shot on the Contender Series, and he, too, dealt with reschedulings and replacements before ultimately meeting and beating Victor Dias to earn his contract with the UFC. But who, do you suppose, was that first rescheduling?
Why, it was Joshua Van. That's right, baby: This UFC fight on a UFC event in the UFC is a makeup fight for a Contender Series bout. The mouse is eating the cat. Time is inverting upon itself and rivers are flowing against the pull of a weeping moon. Hell is full, and its contracted fights are running free on our cards. JOSHUA VAN BY DECISION but don't watch it or you'll loving melt like René Belloq witnessing the Ark of the Covenant.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Dennis Buzukja (11-3) vs Jamall Emmers (19-7)
Dennis Buzukja is in a tough spot. He was contracted to the UFC as a replacement for a replacement for another replacement in a desperate bid to keep Sean Woodson on the Sandhagen vs Font card this past August, and, well, he missed weight and got the crap beaten out of him. Which, honestly, is about what you'd expect. Making weight is hard; making weight with 48 hours to prepare is drat near impossible. Making weight on 48 hours' notice and then fighting a real talented boxer who did get a full training camp and also they're almost half a foot taller than you? Good on you for trying at all. But the UFC isn't doing him any favors in his followup. Jamall Emmers has become a sort of prospect gatekeeper for the Featherweight division. Despite almost four years of trying he just hasn't been able to establish himself as a prospect, having traded wins and losses back and forth repeatedly. But he has proven his ability to give big standup-fighting prospects hell. He took Giga Chikadze to a split decision, he beat up Vince Cachero and Khusein Askhabov, and he was out-and-out robbed against Jack Jenkins this summer.
And maybe I think he's too tricky for Buzukja, or maybe I just want something nice to happen to him as penance for bad judging. JAMALL EMMERS BY DECISION.
Early prelims begin in just about half an hour.
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Nov 11, 2023 23:33
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