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No that's totally correct. It's often difficult or impossible to find a partner to trade down with, usually it comes entirely at the behest of the team that wants to trade up. You also have to get a good enough deal for it. The theory is mainly that more picks equals more chances to hit, whatever the other conditions.
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Apr 29, 2024 00:47
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Draft grades are stupid because few seem to grade them on a curve of what you had to work with. It's like... Dexo posted:Actually I lied Draft grades are good What a huge shock, the team with overall 1 AND 9 had a good draft. Cool. Philly had a great draft and made the most of their ammunition
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Apr 29, 2024 00:47
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Play posted:No that's totally correct. It's often difficult or impossible to find a partner to trade down with, usually it comes entirely at the behest of the team that wants to trade up. Right. football is such a synergistic game that certain guys might not be high value second contract players but their existence makes it possible for someone else to be that. I'm not saying that gut hunch picking and trading up are more optimal, just that there's way more to it than just more picks for more guys who make more money in their second deal. I've really come to appreciate football cause you can't just flatten things out, there's so much nuance and intangible stuff involved
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Apr 29, 2024 00:55
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kiimo posted:Draft grades are stupid because few seem to grade them on a curve of what you had to work with. tbf, if the Bears had taken like Penix/Fatanu at 1/9 they would have probably gotten a lower grade
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Apr 29, 2024 01:11
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Dexo posted:tbf, if the Bears had taken like Penix/Fatanu at 1/9 they would have probably gotten a lower grade
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Apr 29, 2024 01:17
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you need maybe 3 or 4 different grades rather than 13, until several years later where you can really break it down and it warrants more. the way draft grading goes now is very similar in spirit to how referees spot the ball where ever they want and then measure millimeters after the fact
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Apr 29, 2024 01:22
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kiimo posted:Draft grades are stupid because few seem to grade them on a curve of what you had to work with. I was listening to PFF's draft grade podcast (gotta have something on while walking the dog) and it's really obnoxious listening to guys trying to have it both ways. "The reality is, the first 3 rounds are what matter, you gotta nail those cause there's where impact players come from" *2 teams later* "They absolutely smashed the late rounds, scooping value everywhere, so I had to boost their grade a lot* Like those are both reasonable takes to have, but you JUST said only the first rounds matter??? If I'm being charitable all these professional draft take dudes probably haven't slept in like a month and these stupid grades are the final thing they're asked to do before they can collapse in a heap.
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Apr 29, 2024 03:20
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Docjowles posted:I was listening to PFF's draft grade podcast (gotta have something on while walking the dog) and it's really obnoxious listening to guys trying to have it both ways. "The reality is, the first 3 rounds are what matter, you gotta nail those cause there's where impact players come from" *2 teams later* "They absolutely smashed the late rounds, scooping value everywhere, so I had to boost their grade a lot* Like those are both reasonable takes to have, but you JUST said only the first rounds matter??? This is why I don't listen to football podcasts that are longer than like 30 minutes. That's plenty of time to get your actual takes in, anything longer than that is bound to be chock full of equivocation and doublespeak. Hedging your bets is like an art form in sports media
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Apr 29, 2024 03:23
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Dexo posted:Actually I lied Draft grades are good I hope Robert Mays is grinding Iowa offense tape in response to drafting Tory Taylor
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Apr 29, 2024 03:27
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Docjowles posted:I was listening to PFF's draft grade podcast (gotta have something on while walking the dog) and it's really obnoxious listening to guys trying to have it both ways. "The reality is, the first 3 rounds are what matter, you gotta nail those cause there's where impact players come from" *2 teams later* "They absolutely smashed the late rounds, scooping value everywhere, so I had to boost their grade a lot* Like those are both reasonable takes to have, but you JUST said only the first rounds matter??? As far as I understand it, Days 1-2 are for targeting players you're really really sure about, Day 3 is for taking as many lottery tickets as you can get on players who flashed, or had a great season before having a down season, or were insanely productive but tested poorly at the combine (or vice versa).
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Apr 29, 2024 03:46
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Podcasters love da double speak
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Apr 29, 2024 04:11
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Podcasters love da double speak me too except for when i dont
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Apr 29, 2024 04:38
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SKULL.GIF posted:As far as I understand it, Days 1-2 are for targeting players you're really really sure about, Day 3 is for taking as many lottery tickets as you can get on players who flashed, or had a great season before having a down season, or were insanely productive but tested poorly at the combine (or vice versa). Yeah this is a totally reasonable way to approach it. But that's not what they said they were doing with their grades. I don't really care it was just funny getting take whiplash
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Apr 29, 2024 04:54
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I quite like the Steelers draft.
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Apr 29, 2024 04:57
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Teams trying to put a good draft together would probably have better luck in Vegas. Only bad picks approach obvious.
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Apr 29, 2024 05:29
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Did anyone mention Storm Duck? The Dolphins signed him. https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1782851937366602049?t=q-T1NAywY4mNPXws-vkO-g&s=19
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Apr 29, 2024 06:08
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wandler20 posted:Did anyone mention Storm Duck? What’s the association between 3 cone and shuttle to “being good on the secondary”?? Great name hope he thrives
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Apr 29, 2024 06:18
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wandler20 posted:Did anyone mention Storm Duck? where the hell was this guy when i was soliciting amazing draft names, dammit
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Apr 29, 2024 06:29
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I love draft grades because it's the dumbest garbage and they are always funny. How can anyone look the bears being consensus best boys at drafting by virtue of having #1 and 9# overall while completely handwaving the punter pick in the 4th round and say yep this is a very serious and meaningful endeavour.
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Apr 29, 2024 08:16
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Idgaf about Draft Grades. Get me to training camp and pre-season and let me watch these young guns duke it out.
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Apr 29, 2024 08:30
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If your draft grades aren't stupid you won't get clicks
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Apr 29, 2024 08:58
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Asproigerosis posted:I love draft grades because it's the dumbest garbage and they are always funny. How can anyone look the bears being consensus best boys at drafting by virtue of having #1 and 9# overall while completely handwaving the punter pick in the 4th round and say yep this is a very serious and meaningful endeavour. The punter pick took them from a solid A to A+
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Apr 29, 2024 11:45
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Anderson Koopa posted:https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams The only problem with the plan is that Milton is not at “NFL backup” levels of play right now. He very much cannot do a lot of basic QB poo poo. I don’t disagree with the rest but he is very much a scratch ticket in that if he doesn’t hit he goes in the bin. He’ll either be starting in two years (lol) or out of the league.
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Apr 29, 2024 11:54
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Joe Milton is either gonna be out of the league in two years or he's gonna be Logan Thomas 2 and have a decade long career after converting to TE
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Apr 29, 2024 12:04
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Milton might be fine as a gimmick player, like a Hail Mary specialist or maybe doing the simpler Taysom Hill stuff. Otherwise, speaking as a Vols fan, the guy is pretty bad at the usual QB stuff.
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Apr 29, 2024 12:19
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Joe Milton might have the strongest arm of anyone that ever played the position Too bad he cant do literally anything else required of a QB
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Apr 29, 2024 15:44
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Asproigerosis posted:I love draft grades because it's the dumbest garbage and they are always funny. How can anyone look the bears being consensus best boys at drafting by virtue of having #1 and 9# overall while completely handwaving the punter pick in the 4th round and say yep this is a very serious and meaningful endeavour. Drafting the best punter in college football is a perfectly cromulent pick, especially after the Bears had some of the worst punting in the league in 2023.
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Apr 29, 2024 15:45
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Asproigerosis posted:I love draft grades because it's the dumbest garbage and they are always funny. How can anyone look the bears being consensus best boys at drafting by virtue of having #1 and 9# overall while completely handwaving the punter pick in the 4th round and say yep this is a very serious and meaningful endeavour. Counterpoint: Anytime the Browns have had 2 first round picks
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Apr 29, 2024 15:46
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Asproigerosis posted:I love draft grades because it's the dumbest garbage and they are always funny. How can anyone look the bears being consensus best boys at drafting by virtue of having #1 and 9# overall while completely handwaving the punter pick in the 4th round and say yep this is a very serious and meaningful endeavour. Um have you seen other teams spend their 1sts?? Not even this draft in particular but historically speaking there's no guarantees.
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Apr 29, 2024 16:02
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in response to the Louisville CB who had a great RAS I wonder if anyone wasn't a coward and signed this guy as an UDFAkiimo posted:Which one of you put your name in the draft
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Apr 29, 2024 16:11
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Imagine if that guy had an unbreakable gumby like flexible body and naturally excreted stick-um so any pass that touched him was a catch. ... he still wouldn't be worth anything because defenders would just rip the ball away from him.
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Apr 29, 2024 16:14
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https://x.com/awfulannouncing/status/1784986497650921600
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Apr 29, 2024 17:51
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If Washington didn't even consider Maye that's a red flag. He's not a perfect prospect but he's shown more promise than McCarthy.
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Apr 29, 2024 18:01
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drat, that's wild. Commanders really matching to the beat if their own drum
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Apr 29, 2024 18:01
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Joe Milton might have the strongest arm of anyone that ever played the position I love him. Like a big ‘ole St. Bernard.
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Apr 29, 2024 18:11
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Washington: let's hire Kingsbury to run an air raid offense! Also Washington: but hell no do we want a QB that has experience in two different variations of an air raid offense. Let's get a running QB instead dumb teams staying dumb
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Apr 29, 2024 19:17
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kiimo posted:Washington: let's hire Kingsbury to run an air raid offense! hey maybe kliffy learned some new tricks over in thailand.
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Apr 29, 2024 19:48
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I'm convinced the Texans wanted one of the two but couldn't remember which so they said gently caress it, sign both, we'll figure it out later.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:07
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Something I wanted to look into about this year's class, since I noticed that there were a lot of prospects I would consider older. The AVERAGE age of Brugler's 400 top prospects was 23.24. That's really something. I would've guessed maybe somewhere in the 22s but 23.24? Prospect age has been falling considerably since 2000; in 2018 it was only 21.7. About a year and a half younger than this year's. The only year recently that has been higher was the covid-affected 2022 draft at 24.11 (!) years of age. Certainly covid played a role, but NIL money seems to also be having a large effect. If players aren't confident about their draft positions, they may prefer to wait since they are getting paid already, and see if they can't raise their standings with another year in college. Quarterback is often looked at as one of the positions where being older may not be a huge deal. However, looking purely at results it seems that quarterback is actually a position where being younger when drafted actually leads to larger increases in total performance than at other positions. Allen was 21, Herbert was 22, Mahomes was 22, Lamar was 21, Stroud was 21, Lawrence was 21. That doesn't prove anything on its own, since most QBs drafted during that time were young and there are also plenty of young busts. But it's true that I'm having trouble thinking about any recent quarterback prospect who was older and also had success, apart from Joe Burrow. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Penix, Daniels and Nix, the older prospects in this draft, vs. Williams, Maye and JJ who fall into the younger category. Mystic Stylez posted:in response to the Louisville CB who had a great RAS I wonder if anyone wasn't a coward and signed this guy as an UDFA I actually, literally believe that I could beat that guy's broad jump.
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Apr 29, 2024 20:13
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kiimo posted:Washington: let's hire Kingsbury to run an air raid offense! Jayden will be with Washington for far longer than Kliff. But also, lol Commanders
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Apr 29, 2024 20:20
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