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Yeah if this was a weaker WR class you could probably justify Worthy in the 20s, but there are at least a few second-tier guys this year who are comfortably above him, and a handful more who are arguably on the same level
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Apr 18, 2024 17:26
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Hell his own Texas teammate is super intriguing
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Apr 18, 2024 17:28
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Worthy has some underneath prowess if he can dodge defenders but he's a pure speed guy with tiny hands
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Apr 18, 2024 17:29
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Worthy got absolutely manhandled by the Huskies in the CFP semis.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:30
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Worthy was failed by his lovely QB  But seriously yeah I dunno, Worthy is someone I'm at a complete loss for.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:33
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Yeah the WU game wasn't really him getting bullied as much as it was Ewers not looking at him or overthrowing him
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Apr 18, 2024 17:42
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xbilkis posted:The moment I knew I was suffering from Draft Delirium was last week, when I started wondering if Xavier Worthy was actually secretly worth a mid-first round draft pick and his 40 time was clouding people's judgment/causing them to look at him as Just A Speed Guy. Really got hung up on the fact that he had an ~Early Breakout Year~ Xavier Worthy is one of my favorite guys. He is a lot stronger than he looks for a small guy and he isn't just a pure speed guy. His feet are so loving quick, he has great change of direction, and accelerates very fast. He is so loving fun. He doesn't have a wide catch radius and he isn't winning 50/50 balls, but that isn't his game. If you put him in space, he'll wreck you. Dexo posted:Worthy was failed by his lovely QB That stood out to me. Ewers was not good at all.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:45
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kiimo posted:A Chiefs guy who grinds film did a deep dive on him that convinced him and me that Worthy is absolutely not just a speed guy Yeah, I’ve seen multiple Chiefs leaning draft analysts who are high on Worthy. Tbf, he is going to be a monster if he gets into the right environment who can hide his weaknesses and accenuate his strengths (Chiefs and Miami are the 2 most obvious spots). I think i’d prefer him over Mitchell at the Chiefs.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:50
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Mitchell or Worthy seem fine to for Kc at 32… but I think there’s more potential net value of grabbing one of the LT prospects at 32 and then a second-tier receiver at 64. KC in the third is a rare time I’d support trading up. There’s almost certainly at least one solid WR prospect to be available in the first half of the third round. I’d support KC trading up from the bottom of the third to get such a WR.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:05
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Xavier Worthy in KC would be fun as hell
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Apr 18, 2024 18:13
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If anyone is interested, here's the article. Won't be able to see the clips but this is someone I trustquote:In this year’s “know your draft crush” series, I’m once again examining various wide receivers the Chiefs could target in early rounds of the draft. Fortunately, the 2024 draft is packed with good WR prospects. In an attempt to figure out who would be the best fit in Kansas City, I’m looking at as many as possible, breaking down the film to look at the same traits for each player: Speed/acceleration/agility, releases, route running, hands/catch point work, YAC/playmaking, and an overall takeaway. Here are the guys we’ve looked at so far:
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Apr 18, 2024 18:15
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Sataere posted:That stood out to me. Ewers was not good at all. That's Quinn "best recruit ever" Ewers to you
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Apr 18, 2024 18:18
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Roman going to shock a few CBs assuming nobody touches him at the LOS
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Apr 18, 2024 18:31
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Mitchell or Worthy seem fine to for Kc at 32… but I think there’s more potential net value of grabbing one of the LT prospects at 32 and then a second-tier receiver at 64. If there’s a LT prospect ready at 32, I’d sprint to the podium for them. I just feel that any tackle falling is going to be snapped up by the Ravens and 49ers. If there’s a trade partner and someone like Mims, Fashanu or Latham is falling to the 20s, I’d actually wouldn’t mind a trade up and id usually advocate for the Chiefs to do the opposite (not that Veach ever trades back anyway).
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Apr 18, 2024 18:49
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kiimo posted:If anyone is interested, here's the article. Won't be able to see the clips but this is someone I trust This is an excellent breakdown. Pretty much what I saw.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:57
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This is probably a stupid question, but why is a guy like Keon Coleman a mid round pick while Brian Thomas Jr a top 20? Coleman put up huge numbers with a 2nd rate qb on a offense that wasn't air raid. Good routes, lots of contested catches, played vs everyone's top cb and came out on top. Literally didn't lose. BTJr played alongside Nabers. Nabers looked like a monster, but that left Brian Thomas wide open or against 2nd rate cb's and had the Heisman feeding him. There is a decent difference in the 40 time, but I just don't see the hype to support BTJr. And to be clear, they both seem like 3rd round to me, not that Coleman should move up.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:46
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I've been seeing Keon mock drafted in the late 1st, early 2nd.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:52
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Not to take away from Coleman but Brian Thomas Jr. is fast and tall with great body control. I imagine it's hard to not want that over a guy who got bullied by Caelen Carson and Boston College DBs
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Apr 18, 2024 19:53
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Coleman is fast on the field. He was one of the fastest if not fastest players when they gps'd them at the combine during the workout portion. He can definitely be frustrating tho and should play stronger considering his size. His routes aren't great. He was also hurt most of the season so that probably didn't help.
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Apr 18, 2024 20:00
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A couple mock draft sites are listing Cooper DeJean as a safety now, what happened? Is it leaking that teams are looking at him as a safety instead of a CB now?
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Apr 18, 2024 21:20
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IcePhoenix posted:A couple mock draft sites are listing Cooper DeJean as a safety now, what happened? Is it leaking that teams are looking at him as a safety instead of a CB now? He will most likely be a Safety, but I know the Packers (who think extremely highly of him) view him as a Slot-CB.
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Apr 18, 2024 21:24
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This took a lot longer this year because parenting really cuts into the time you can spend watching a 4th round pick's film cut ups it turns out. Caleb Williams – USC I’ve been thinking about how to talk about Caleb since he took Rattler’s job in all honesty, because he’s always been a guy where you just cannot look past what he physically has at his disposal. We judge Caleb on a curve that is borderline unfathomable—why doesn’t he always make the perfect play every time? Why did he miss his receiver deep when he still had time to gather and make a read? Why is he taking fumbles and sacks behind the line that he has no business taking? I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a guy with his level of both talent and production where I’ve despised his tape this much. I’m going to pause and talk about his physical traits before we discuss the actual play, because there’s no reason to be as negative as some of this report is going to come out. By virtue of how the league works now, scouting is a question of “how is this guy succeeding or failing in the NFL” and trying to back figure those outcomes. There is no world in which Caleb’s physical talent is the issue, barring an Alex Smith caliber injury. He’s listed at 6’1 215, but I would wager he plays a touch heavier just based on that being his listed weight since he was 17 despite being significantly bigger. I don’t see a guy on tape who has trouble seeing over the line, and he moves very well in the event there’s some garbage over the middle although he’s pretty good at staying upright as long as he can to maximize the view. There aren’t really injury concerns here. His arm is fascinating for an NFL guy. I see a very high release where people mistake high for tight. He still can wind up and torque his elbow when he’s off schedule or releasing wide, but I think some of that is him trying to force himself to pause and set before releasing. I think he’s going to be somewhere between above average and high-end velocity in the league—not the Allen/Stafford gun but enough that you’re not going to mistake him for Cousins in the short game, particularly when he steps in while in structure. His ability to throw on air and put distance into the ball is probably top 5-7 in the league from day one, which tells me he genuinely could get to that league leading velocity too if a team will let him step into throws and actually block for him for the first time in like 3 years. His real genius with his arm is his ability to throw with touch or velocity when he’s falling off platform or pressure—some of that is arm angle but some is just having repped those throws a billion times. He has so many throws where he’s either reading hot or has a missed assignment in the blocking where he gets the ball where it should be without having to force a ball out in the way he wants, but let’s put a pin in that idea of forcing balls for later. Honestly, I think his feet are really solid for a guy with the reputation of playing outside of structure and bolting the pocket in scramble mode too. He’s never going to be mistaken for Brady, but he does a really good job of keeping his feet square and transferring momentum into his arm from a solid base—maybe some light overstriding on longer plays where he throws from too wide which probably get picked in the NFL if the ball doesn’t have enough on it, but I think he just ends up sacked on those plays anyways. So why am I bothered by this dude? We can’t talk about Caleb without talking about Lincoln Riley at this point. The man who gave us Baker, Kyler, and some level of Jalen Hurts has essentially the first instance of a quarterback where he’s had him from the beginning with borderline limitless potential. So what is the offensive genius hailed as 1 of 2 big QB whisperers in college doing with his masterpiece? Frantically trying to hide the part where he can’t run the ball or pass block anymore. When Riley takes over the Oklahoma offense, the big innovation is that they start iterating GT Counter and Zone principles to the air raid create traffic and garbage that a defender’s eye discipline can be bothered by. All of his RPO work hinges on this idea that you force the defense’s eyes to the edge or cutback and force them to make a choice on how they’re coving what are ultimately very simple one-back route trees. Every consecutive Riley offense has run the ball less frequently and less effectively, which is fine when your passing game is good enough that you’re only using the run game as a constraint. Enter the USC years—where his OL is bottom half of the Pac 12 and probably bottom 3 in the new Big 10. He wasn’t able to bring the OL coach from Oklahoma with him who seemed to smooth over the inherent difficulties of running what was essentially NFL-caliber GT Counter and Zone plays while still maintaining enough technique and athleticism to handle dropping in pass pro 50 times a game. USC did not have a Tackle on the roster that could execute their running schemes and passing schemes at the same time, so he frequently would just pick the guy who could sort of drop and simplify to run more zone runs so that missed blocks wouldn’t completely end their rushing attempts. Unfortunately, this does some strange things to your quarterback when they have to play under these conditions, as Lincoln started calling his offense like a 12 year old Madden player spamming 800 ways to force the ball on a wheel or to the flat with the knowledge that he would absolutely have to win in space to win games. There are two schools for dealing with an elite QB—blitz or max coverage. When you blitz, the rush must get home, or you’re losing coverage integrity the longer you leave your guys in space. Riley’s offense was more or less predicated on that exact gambit the last 2 years. When you label a playcaller arrogant, what you’re saying is that they know exactly what they have on their team and know that their team will make it work. Caleb does that. There are so many reads in games they won where Lincoln calls some type of slot wheel, snag, spot, or double move that just creates the gambit “Caleb, if you can stay alive for 3 second, there’s a touchdown here”, and usually he did just that. The entire Nevada and Colorado tape looks like a guy where he’s just angrily calling plays that will prove the superiority of his QB and receiver, ignoring every other guy on the field to the passage of time. Consequently, Caleb looks absurdly comfortable against pressure and the blitz and will just float around moving until he’s ready to throw, perhaps a bit too long but when there’s only 5 defenders in coverage, you have margin if you’re alive. A lot of the throws that people describe as “off structure” against the blitz for Caleb are him throwing an intended route where he knew what he had and just needed time to get the ball there. The reality is—these throws are within structure because they’re expected. A lot of what look like broken plays where Caleb hits a bomb are in fact just some of the worst blocked shot plays you’ve ever seen. Max coverage is a different beast though. When I’m a DC, my goal is to break the offense’s structure in such a way that I can benefit. If my blitz isn’t getting home, the question becomes how few guys can I send and still get pressure? This year, USC couldn’t consistently block 4. Then, as a playcaller, I’m faced with a different set of problems. It’s no longer “Stay alive and this will be open for you”—it’s “Stay alive but also don’t miss your windows” and this is where a lot of chickens come home to roost for the USC offense now. Lincoln doesn’t like throwing MOF consistently because he can’t keep Caleb in the pocket easily, so better throw to the hashes. Lincoln can’t call designed counter or cutbacks so option looks are the only real way to create backdoors in the running game. Lincoln can’t call dive or tight zone well because his linemen aren’t really road graders and struggle to open lanes in the middle against basic run fits. When you add all those together, and you’re struggling to run your offense against a base defense only rushing 4, the onus is entirely on the QB to hit tight windows against 7 defenders without the advantage of the full field being threatened. Yes, Caleb can punish bad angles and absorb some space scrambling, the dropping 7 or 8 even means he’s not getting that far out before running into a defender. So what does he do? Caleb holds the ball forever against max coverage. If you look at his sack rate and pressure stats, it almost counterintuitively seems that the best bet to get sacks is to rush minimally and make him try to outsmart the defense while running scramble drill behind his OL who have all lost their matchups. His sack rate shows up as significantly higher that a lot of guys in his hype level in the draft almost entirely because he is trying to maximize these moments. This is why I bristle a bit at the idea of him being brilliant out of structure—because he’s not really making those highlight throws consistently post-structure, just when he’s blitzed into them. Coaches in the NFL want guys who can check down and not force balls in these situations at the next level. The genius of Mahomes is that he throws hard checkdowns and consistently maximizes yardage at the margins to make it so that those bombs are actually devastating rather than just what it takes to stay in the game. Caleb is not there yet, though there really isn’t a reason he can’t learn it. Bonecrushing sacks and fumbles, along with stupid arm punts, are just a choice that he makes by virtue of refusing to check down and always going alone in these moments, which could be something that changes when a coach isn’t running scramble rules that allow for it, or it could be an ingrained tendency that Lincoln had to try to account for in the offense. So where does that leave us? Objectively, I think Caleb is the best touch passer at QB1 in a few years—better than Trevor, Fields, or Stroud on that front. I also think he’s got by far the biggest hurdles to overcome on his scheme and tailoring his game. Trevor’s offense hinged on simple reads. Fields and Stroud were meant to maximize the vertical game to the detriment of some short throws. There is no analog for being a hash merchant like Caleb in the NFL because the hash marks aren’t where they were in college. You don’t have the ability to force coverage off an additional 10 yards wide on a whim now. Additionally, how does it work when he’s asked to move protections and hot reads around pre-snap as opposed to reacting to being hot and figuring out where his receiver is about to have space built into the play. You cannot count on your receivers just winning against blitz the same way in the NFL, so there has to be an evolution of his approach here the same way that he’s going to have to learn to settle down and read tight windows from a pocket once he has a line that can actually block for him (although maybe the Bears still can’t do that). As a prospect, I think he looks a lot like Dak with higher end talent and features around him. They had very similar issues where the passing snaps on tape just don’t match a lot of the NFL in the love of Wheels and flats that Mullen and Riley share, but the physical ability and game feel post-snap give them a lot of margin to learn what they need to do at the next level to succeed. Another comparison that comes to mind, ironically, is Fields where the slowness in processing against max coverages ends up leading to them having to run vertically more to force defenses to play more gap sound and create space a different way in the passing skeleton. Another guy that comes to mind is Russell Wilson in terms of trying to succeed by maximizing that which happens outside of the tackles—Russ threw a lot of waggle and jerk routes at Wisconsin the same way Caleb does now, frequently off of plays that extended longer than they needed to. I think Caleb can succeed just because of the enormous margin that his athletic ability and arm will give him, so long as a coach is patient enough to let him rep, but I also see the potential for him to immediately follow the career arc Fields has had where an attempt to try to immediately fit him into NFL schemes leads to his development stagnating in favor of doing the handful of things that keep his team in the game. I have him as QB1, but I don’t believe he’s the caliber of prospect Lawrence or Fields were. I put him in a similar category to Stroud or Murray where he should be QB1, but I don’t believe what’s on tape necessarily justifies overlooking some of the flaws inherent to his game. Drake Maye - UNC I have a lot of takes about football, but one I’m very willing to fight to my last breath is that Phil Longo belongs in the Hague. That’s right—I have to start this eval by talking about the Wisconsin OC, because I probably will never forgive him for the list of QBs he’s effectively destroyed in his efforts to appear “Fun” or “Uptempo”. Let’s talk for a minute about tempo and what the air raid was supposed to do at its purest. Air raid offenses, and a lot of the one back passing concepts they drew from, want to force you to make decisions about how you’re going to cover from the beginning. All Leach wants you to do is “Throw it to the guy who’s loving open” and to have the easiest understanding of who that will be. To help solve the issue, he’ll call things like Mesh and 4 verts where you’re supposed to read, either from the breaks or shifts, what shell the defense is in and throw where you know there will be space because the crossers or straight vertical releases made a DB show their hand. Longo is an air raid guy, and every “air raid guy” is essentially defined by where they break from Leach in approach. Dana likes using the backfield and weird sets in the running game. Lincoln, at Oklahoma at least, brought a Counter based run game that punished attempts to solve the play quickly. Dykes brought in a zone running game to pair with RPO looks that take advantage of the short crosses. Sumlin and Kliff bring in West Coast passing concepts to try to create some more consistent progressions for a QB against even competition. All of them basically spend every waking minute getting told by Leach that they’re running the ball too much or making things too complicated by adding too many plays and options. Not Phil Longo—this dude has like 4 running plays and 8 running plays just like Leach, and his whole theory is “Well if I use tempo and out execute you, that won’t matter”. Consequently, every year, his offense seems to have diminishing returns as a conference realizes “oh, we have like his whole playbook” and starts to make aggressive gameplans to deal with him. Now, there are essentially two types of offensive mindset in college and the NFL—those who care about the “right” play and those who want to out-execute the other team. The latter mindset came in vogue around when the West Coast offense really took off, but it’s infected just about every team out there now. “It doesn’t matter if I call the right play, the QB needs to make it work” is the mindset on display here, and it’s very common with young or college QBs or situations where a coach just reps something to death trying to get a team running it perfectly. If you’re a Leach, or someone like that, this means “hey, we’re going to rep this a million times against some other coverages to try to prep for this week” and even then, it doesn’t necessarily work. Remember how Washington never lost to Wazzu for a while? It’s because “drop 8 and use a weird sim pressure” was essentially unsolvable for how Washington deployed it, and Leach had no interest in building out a counter. Longo is, objectively, the closest thing to Leach on this front where he just refuses to add much to his playbook or really do anything beyond occasionally move faster or slower or occasionally focus his offense on his NFL backs as opposed to his QB for once. That’s a lot of words to say Drake Maye’s early tape doesn’t do it for me. This most recent season under Chip is better, but I would love to see him in an offense that actually challenged him over the middle more to take advantage of his ability to push outside the numbers in more space. You see a lot of glimpses in his tape of what should work—whipping overhand release with elite velocity, fairly quick decisions, size, and enough movement ability that he can give himself a space bubble. Arm strength is pretty good—on par with a Derek Carr or Rodgers where I see a guy who could very easily be top 10 on both velocity and air when his delivery is consistent. He’s a better velocity thrower than an air thrower right now because his footwork and release occasionally make him flutter balls on longer snaps. I don’t think we need to talk about him like Allen or Fields caliber athletes, but the guy he really reminds me of in how he moves and behaves back there is Sam Darnold, where I see a guy who can move well but does his best when he’s essentially forced into either pocket mode or running outright. They’re both fairly stout and take some hits but are never going to be mistaken for true running threats. That gets into what drives me utterly crazy about him—he doesn’t scramble with any type of plan. Typically, quarterbacks have three responses when they know they’re hot, either move a protection and try to stay in pocket, scramble and either run or throw into obvious space, or find the answer behind the pressure before it gets there. Option 1 doesn’t really happen in college outside of top 20 programs where the offense is heavily NFL-influenced, because there’s just not that many dudes who can do it or that many OL who are experienced enough to make it work. Option 2 is risky because it might work against teams where you’re more talented but then get you hurt when talent evens up. Option 3 sounds like “oh just beat the blitz” but isn’t. What I mean there is that either a quarterback finds space where the blitz is coming and throws to the immediate opening even if the shell is tight or burns the ball and doesn’t take a negative play. Guys like Brady made their entire career on knowing how to make 1 and 3 work. Mahomes gets credit for Option 2 but is actually a genius at 1 and 3 with the ability to do 2. All scrambling and athleticism really gets you is potential margin if you know what to do with it. Maye’s offenses have never provided enough structure around him to build in an obvious plan for play extension beyond “look around”. It’s a cardinal sin of the air raid. If you’re the type of freak Caleb is and have someone like Lincoln who will coach on what a scramble drill should result in, you can make it work. No one in Maye’s orbit felt like doing that, so what I see on tape is a guy who stops moving his feet with any type of intent and just tries to make things happen when he sees them. He basically just finds guys moving around the edge of the numbers and rips it and hopes it works, often from unset feet the second he’s out of the pocket. I’m not a purist on footwork if your arm motion is consistent, but he very very frequently doesn’t spin the ball perfectly when his footwork is off, meaning the ball flutters which is going to screw up timing routes and invite guys in trail to bully him at the next level. The mindset of trying to make things happen doesn’t bother me, but it is concerning that a guy with his number of reps on tape isn’t really feeling or sensing space obviously. A lot of this also wasn’t controllable for him as a prospect. I hate his line’s technique. I hate the reductive schemes. I hate that they never challenged the middle of the field until the past year consistently. He can’t do anything about any of that, so if I had to guess who the guy where being in NFL surroundings might change or demonstrate some things he hasn’t shown, it’s him this year. So what do I want to do with him? If he can land somewhere that the offensive line keeps him clean and lets him operate from structure, he can be an NFL starter. I would compare him right now in terms of physical ability to something between what Darnold or Will Levis are, with very similar issues to both in that he forced a lot of balls into danger and lived or died on scrambling moves. Mentally, Darnold or Jordan Love are what his reads and tendencies remind me of. I would love to watch him from a clean pocket for a year to that we can watch him get the types of structured reps that should help him learn what should be his next steps outside of the pocket. It’s easier to learn to improvise than to learn structure, and I think he just needs more complexity to get to where his scrambling routine can potentially solve problems later on so that there’s space. I have him as my only other surefire first rounder, but I think he’s by far the highest variance prospect this year. I saw someone compare him to Herbert: Herbert was toolsier than this and had significantly worse ball placement in a pistol offense that was built in a lab to minimize his tools in favor of trying to force him to hit tight throws over the middle or slow things down vertically. JJ McCarthy – Michigan I have genuinely no idea how to really articulate how weird JJ’s tape is from an NFL standpoint. Does he throw some Harbaugh classics like Spider Y Banana to Loveland on tape on time? Yup. Did he throw some clean play action deep? Yup. Did he complete some tight sideline throws? Sure thing. His sample size though, despite multiple years starting, is 50% of what I want to be to get an honest feel for him. Michigan’s lack of interest in meaningfully passing the ball is detrimental to him in the sense that you’re trying to figure out what so many of these passes really equate to and why they weren’t putting the ball in his hands more beyond just straight up risk aversion. Michigan’s big renaissance on offense is best described as “let’s actually bother to apply our NFL plays to college”. Suddenly, Harbaugh cared about running formation to boundary (sticking all your big dudes on the short side of the hash), crossing routes, Power RPOs, and shifts to force open additional gaps the way better Stanford teams did. Consequently, a lot of the accolades that usually come with “pro style offense” don’t really matter that much—he has the same ultrawide and unreplicable throws on tape that Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, or Milton have on tape! That gets into what I think his actual best trait is—game sense. When you watch the way JJ reads his protections or moves on PA and in the pocket, he’s a guy who senses pressure well and doesn’t necessarily overreact, accommodating it with actual protection calls, hot reads, and audibles. You cannot run this offense without some sense of timing and pressure margin, and being able to make that work when large men run at you is the single hardest thing to learn. The way he cleanly sees a power RPO or crashing end and gets the ball to where the pressure was is excellent. I do think he’s potentially going to get himself in trouble since he’s not NFL scrambling fast, and he did try to extend plays improperly in college at times, but it’s a different thing than the issue I have with Maye. McCarthy’s arm is decent but could be better. He still aims the ball through his elbows, to the point where I see a guy who occasionally pushes the ball to guys instead of throwing through his stance and aiming with the entirety of his body. This also is giving him a bit of a flutter when he releases too high. It’s most evident when he throws left—because he doesn’t really step into those throws and sprays the ball with less velocity to that third of the field. My sense with this is that he’s had a coach in his life who balled him out a few times for missing tight windows and is more concerned with the placement than speed or clean spirals here which is a healthy mindset in college at least. I’ll put him squarely at the “Joe Burrow” spot on his arm where he’s got enough velocity and air to not get cut for it but not to necessarily add anything to an offense. This is fixable with some cleaner steps into his throws and an attempt to clean up his his wrists to not fire until after his core and elbows finish driving. There’s going to be some fuss about his size too since he’s thin—15 pounds is about all that’s going to take so it’s not worth pretending he’s going to havea problem there. I don’t know how to deal with his vertical throws. He misses short in the middle and wide which is frustrating. Sometimes, this is due to him throwing under duress, but I then have to compare that to some of his deep sideline throws where he tucks a ball perfectly or cleanly throws hard corner and breaks my head a bit. If I see a guy who does this, I get concerned that his INT rate is about to drastically jump in the league because an NFL DC will tell his guys to play trail and turn on the ball. I see a guy who could absolutely break things in a Shanahan tree offense with his ability to sense space and blocks or adjust a read, and his ability to go over the middle cleanly and frequently is a rarity in this class right now. Put him somewhere like Miami where he can be told to throw past his receivers, and I think you can moot some of his issues more easily than other guys in the class. I would compare him right now to Coen-era Levis or ironically a higher-end Cousins where his physical talent and willingness to use the full field are good, but you worry a lot about if he’s going to stretch the edges without some of the margins afforded by college has marks. I call him a fringe 1st rounder, but he will go in the 1st pretty much for sure. Jayden Daniels – LSU The other boom/bust prospect of the class to me—I’ve liked the way that Daniels has made plays when needed and used width of the field deep to create pressure at the sideline from the pocket and in deep play action as a constraint. I’ve always appreciated the way he’s felt where his receivers are and the plan he tends to have. For his own health, he should have fewer plans. I have never seen a guy who is more averse to throwing the ball away when he should. Part of this is just like, what Mike Denbrock does. He creates these offenses with very few hot reads in favor of letting his receivers freelance, which works the best when you have *gestures at LSU WR room*, but that also means that guys who just want to make plays will stay in place and try to throw the goddamn ball. Reader, he did that every time. I see a couple things on tape right away: vertical throws from clean pockets or extended scrambles that are insane margin-driven throws he makes possible and absolute gamebreaking speed. He’s not really the type of careless with the ball that he’s not going to throw a bunch of picks. He’s got some very clean reads in the short and screen game wide. What I don’t see is a guy who is comfortable over the middle. Now, I will 150% tell you that LSU’s receivers coach did not run the cleanest routes this year and won heavily off of athleticism. It could be that his timing isn’t the one that’s off, but my god watching some of his levels or double china concepts are giving me some vapors. Hitting guys late or soft is the type of thing where his leash is going to get very short with an offensive coordinator that isn’t throwing deep or letting him create space wide. I see a guy here who, honestly, reminds me a lot of RG3, right down to the part where he takes some of the stupidest hits possible trying to chase the two zones the coach wants the ball going into. His arm is fine—league average velocity and air at this point. I don’t love his arm angles and think that he trusts his touch too much when he should give up on a throw and either move or burn it. He gathers his feet decently when he’s trying to deliver a ball, so it’s probably not something where he has considerably more arm that he can get with mechanical improvement. The legs are just fascinating here. Jayden senses pressure well, but he doesn’t always react to it the way a guy with his legs should. He senses it and throws through the hit way too often for my liking. I want to see you deliver at the margins and occasionally take hits—I don’t need to see you hit or sacked on like 50% of your drops. This is, on a whole, not sustainable and a sign that this offense predicated itself too much on slow developing verts and screens, and it’s also a sign that the quarterback understands and is trying to execute the offense to his own detriment. He’s fast enough that he should be running pure option consistently as a constraint to push the defense into contain, but Denbrock absolutely loves to make his running QBs into statues with his passing skeletons and teach them it’s okay to hit narrow windows and not use their athleticism, which gets you Desmond Ridder when those windows get smaller in the NFL if the QB doesn’t narrow their own margins. As such, my hope would be that he learns to extend and scramble better in favor of wider windows the way he did to Nabers and Thomas deep this year at times. He’s a 1-cut runner like Griffin, Pryor, or Richardson, which makes me nervous considering he's smaller than any of them and runs into contact, but it just also means that he’s not currently going to get the same gravitational pull of how Lamar changes defensive coverages until he can consistently punish teams for camping wide. I think he’s a legitimate speed threat in the NFL, but I don’t know that you can safely run him more than 5-6 times a game at this size either, meaning his running might not come into play for an offense as much as they hope. I want Jayden to work, but I need a guy who can either make the running threat real without threat of injury (Field, Jackson) or figure out ways to make that passing margin grow with his scrambling (Wilson). I genuinely think the best thing that could happen is for him to go to either an Arians-school team that wants to throw deep or something to the tune of Stefanski where the offense uses running personnel to create the MOF passing game and then threaten the edge. In a Shanahan system, he’s going to get murdered by a rat or cloud in the intermediate zones consistently unless his offense can block long enough to let him throw deep or give him receivers he can time up with well. I think this is possible, but there’s got to be some effort to clean things up between the hashes so that his actual ability to threaten the edge or throw deep matters. Your goal is to turn him into rookie RG3, and you biggest fear is that he either gets hurt the same way or doesn’t progress and becomes Dennis Dixon. I like him somewhere between RG3 and Mitch Trubisky as deep ball merchants where the athleticism is going to dictate a ceiling here, but we just don’t know what missing parts of the game need to be filled in. I like him in the 2nd round—I don’t like burning a 1st on a guy this boom or bust but the league might. Quick hits: Spencer Rattler—covered ad nauseum as a freshman and basically played the same way with worse surrounding talent. I still see a guy who is an immediate top 3-4 velocity thrower who tries to extend or outthrow pressure and tries to beat coverages on ball placement throws he knows are there but can’t guarantee. If he’s on a good to great team, I could see him as a developmental guy with the margin the arm affords, but I just can’t get past some of the picks or the part where no one has figured out a way to scheme open receivers or maximize that arm talent into something that’s actually hard to defend. Reminds me a lot of Nick Foles. Penix—Love his release and athletic upside, hate that he’s a little slight and has injury history. I see throws on tape that look like the top 2 guys in the class, and he has the fastest release here. Some of that offense is replicable in the way it puts the safeties in conflict with switches, but he’s going to have to relearn some short game timing in a way that he can’t just push balls into the far sideline after a safety has tracked deep. More of a hard thrower than a far thrower. Plays like something between DTR and Hendon Hooker last year. Bo Nix—YAC merchant who has played in like 5 offenses and basically got really good at figuring out short/medium spacing because none of the 5 verts high school offense his dad had him run worked when being asked to play for Gus or Dillingham or Stein. Solid physical prospect but nothing special—Daniel Jones esque there. I guess you’re hoping for him to take a step and become Geno or Tyrod as guys who played a lot and can execute structure, but anything that makes him freelance will give someone a heart attack. Tall Colt McCoy. Michael Pratt—Looks like he has the tools in the 5 snaps that really translate? I’d take a flyer in like the 4th on that I guess but genuinely can’t really chart or project much beyond “hey he’s kinda fast and hits good PA/shot calls”. Jarrett Stidtham. Jordan Travis—Cool if he’s healthy but future gadget QB right now. That offense doesn’t really translate to the NFL beyond deep balls and screens, and he’s got basically no pocket presence. Bryce Petty Kedon Slovis—Basically lost all of his velocity to injuries and became a generic air raid guy. Don’t draft him please. Graham Harrell. Joe Milton—Without question the biggest arm I have ever seen in my life, and without question the least accurate QB I have ever seen get this kind of buzz. He would’ve completed 30% of his passes at best in Josh Allen’s college offense. Tyler Bray taken up to 11. Devin Leary—Elite velocity, one speed guy. No sense of pressure or spacing. No real touch throws as a changeup. Will make a west coast coach who likes speed outs happy. Homeless Baker Mayfield Sam Hartman—Exclusive touch thrower coming from 4 years in an offense that doesn’t do anything the NFL does and 1 year with a Notre Dame team that had receivers who couldn’t start in the American. Will probably make a camp team but genuinely no idea what you do with him. No real comparison because what the gently caress is this offense man.
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Apr 18, 2024 21:30
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The engine that drives this thread
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Apr 18, 2024 21:41
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I immediately redistribute all my qb takes to align with TGG
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Apr 18, 2024 22:02
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TheGreyGhost posted:Not Phil Longo—this dude has like 4 running plays and 8 running plays just like Leach, and his whole theory is “Well if I use tempo and out execute you, that won’t matter”. guessing one of these was supposed to be passing
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Apr 18, 2024 22:17
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Vindication for my thoughts on Maye JJ and Jayden
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Apr 18, 2024 22:17
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Grey Ghost should Washington take Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels
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Apr 18, 2024 22:39
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kiimo posted:Grey Ghost should Washington take Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels yea this is my question as well. knowing its going to be Kliff calling the plays
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Apr 18, 2024 22:42
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I'd rather have Maye behind the Commanders' offensive line than Daniels because whoo boy they suck rear end
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Apr 18, 2024 22:54
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I don't like Longo or his stupid haircut
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Apr 18, 2024 22:56
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Doltos posted:I'd rather have Maye behind the Commanders' offensive line than Daniels because whoo boy they suck rear end they absolutely have to use one or both early 2nd rounders on o-line. they literally do not have a LT right now bc they released the only one under contract. the interior o-line should be in an ok place now with the new center brought in so get some tackles
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Apr 18, 2024 23:23
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Doltos posted:I'd rather have Maye behind the Commanders' offensive line than Daniels because whoo boy they suck rear end Ok thank you. I was listening to Mays and Tice the other day and it was driving me nuts. They did their recurring bit about how the Patriots absolutely cannot take a QB because the roster sucks so bad. Which is a totally defensible opinion. But then they moved on to Washington and were like now HERE is a team ready to drop in a rookie QB baby let's go!!!! I don't really see them as very far ahead of New England? They have McLaurin who is way better than any Patriot pass catcher (worth noting he's turning 29 this season) but like what else do they have going for them. The rest of their offensive weapons are nothing special. The line sucks so bad that they nearly set the QB sack record last year, which seems not ideal. I think it's interesting how different the two situations are made out to be when I don't see it as that far apart. They also had a side tangent about how a terrible defense is good for a rookie QB actually because you'll get more reps (???). But in the same breath said the Pats cannot afford to take a QB cause they need picks restock their defense. If you're going to have a weird take about the importance of a bad defense at least apply it consistently. I've been pretty underwhelmed with their podcast this offseason. Robert had Mina Kimes on a few weeks ago and at one point said the 49ers should trade Deebo and simply draft another Deebo. Brilliant, I'll just grab one of the many Deebo's stuck in my couch cushions, guys like that are a dime a dozen.
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Apr 19, 2024 00:10
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I think most of my Maye bad vibes are just being incredibly annoyed at the UNC offense, but I stand firm: QB5.
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Apr 19, 2024 00:10
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I think the CB class might be a bit underrated, there seems to be quite a bit of talent there.
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Apr 19, 2024 00:35
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I don't understand why Grey Ghost isn't getting paid $500k/year as the top scout for the Steelers or whatever
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Apr 19, 2024 01:19
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surf rock posted:I don't understand why Grey Ghost isn't getting paid $500k/year as the top scout for the Steelers or whatever because he actually looks after his infant child, showing a pathetic lack of grit, commitment, and dedication.
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Apr 19, 2024 01:52
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Docjowles posted:I've been pretty underwhelmed with their podcast this offseason. Robert had Mina Kimes on a few weeks ago and at one point said the 49ers should trade Deebo and simply draft another Deebo. Brilliant, I'll just grab one of the many Deebo's stuck in my couch cushions, guys like that are a dime a dozen. When he first started it was an inundation of his content, multiple episodes a week, lengthy episodes, researched content on novel topics. Then he, strategically and prudently, started integrating more guests into the regular rotation to lighten his work load. Eventually he got enough regulars that he could stop appearing on some episodes. He has grown and is now more management/leadership. All the while, the quality of his content has decreased. I used to love his podcast more than all others, now I barely even listen to episodes. Maybe 1 out of 6. F
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Apr 19, 2024 01:53
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The podcast draft coverage as a whole seems lovely this year, across different podcasters. Not sure if that’s me getting more jaded or what. Seems like more content than ever was focused on just the top qb prospects and then the top wr prospects.
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Apr 19, 2024 01:55
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I get his point. He likes Brandon Aiyuk a bunch, and would resign him, and he thinks that since the Niners are about to have to pay Brock Purdy, it's going to be pretty hard to keep both Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel at those salaries. And the defensive players, and everything else. So trading him and trying to get a cost controlled rookie wouldn't be the worst idea eventually. I'm not intimately familiar with the Niners cap situation, but it seems like a pretty logical thing teams that have to pay their QB run into all the time. The thing about the Commies, is that while they definitely need a LT. I have a hard time separating their offensive line play from the Sack elemental that is Sam Howell. Could a QB that isn't magnetically drawn to taking sacks have made their line look better? I would have to watch Commies tape to find that out and I really don't want to do that.
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Apr 19, 2024 02:01
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The WR podcast discourse is grating because there’s this constant contradiction where it’s somehow simultaneously easy to replace elite WRs through drafting but also difficult so teams should get elite WRs through trading. The correct team building approach is simple: if you have an elite WR then you pay the money to keep them. QB, OL, and WR are significantly more important to sustained team success than the other positions. So the niners shouldn’t trade Aiyuk and try to draft a replacement. They should trade expensive non-QB/OL/WR players and try to draft their replacements.
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Apr 19, 2024 02:06
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