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Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
Was just thinking about how there are quite a few parallels between Brian Thomas Jr and Justin Jefferson. Similar size (BTJ is slightly bigger, but Jefferson has longer arms so kind of a wash), VERY similar explosiveness, similar speed (BTJ actually beats out Jefferson by nearly a full tenth, which shows how our speed expectations have actually increased so much in a short time, but I think in reality they will play at similar speeds). Both were somewhat questioned coming out since they weren't the best or most frequently used wide receivers on their respective teams (BTJ behind Nabers, Jefferson behind Jamarr). They even went to the same school.

My point is, BTJ guaranteed future all-pro, coincidences never lie

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Cash Monet
Apr 5, 2009

kidcoelacanth posted:

i like the ringer podcasts because i like to listen to people talk about football. well, thanks for reading my post

I don't listen to their podcasts but I always like Ben Solak's videos about the top QB prospects.

Just watched this one, shows why a team could talk themselves into McCarthy while also pointing out the red flags.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCfYqzwA5s

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Using media as leverage leading up to draft week. Tale as old as time.

https://twitter.com/ustadium/status/1781385757657006165?s=46

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

Just thinking back to when Tampa traded up to take a 2nd round kicker.

I feel like it's important to mention that he was AWFUL. Like yeah no second round kicker could possibly be worth it but Aguayo was literally the worst kicker in the league by field goal percentage. He was cut after one season :laffo:

Also fun nugget from his Wikipedia, because of course any time you are talking about all time dumbshit draft picks the Jets are going to be mentioned: "Aguayo was the first kicker selected in the second round since Mike Nugent, who was drafted 47th overall in the 2005 NFL Draft by the New York Jets."

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

Doltos posted:

Developing muscles around joints improves joint health but it doesn't prevent injuries. There's no such thing as an injury model that can predict them or a build that can shield against them. It's simply if you put yourself in danger of being hit by the equivalent of a car over and over you're most likely going to get hurt.

AFAIK there's correlation between how flexible athletes are and injury rate, which is why stretching, pilates, yoga and all that poo poo has become a lot more common and in vogue in all football codes and there's strength training you can do to prevent injury and help stabilise joints but most of that are accessory lifts - often lighter weight at a deep stretch.

That being said the problem with Daniels as I see it isn't that he gets hit, its how he gets hit. He gets loving drilled square so often and hit side on because his lateral quickness is pretty average it's going to lead to issues. Cam/Allen do the hitting. Smaller or more slender guys like Vick, Lamar and even someone as small as Russ when he took off don't get hit like that all that often. Sliding and avoiding hits is a teachable skill but its hard to break a bad, life long habit that's ingrained in your muscle memory under duress.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
The idea is that people who get into car accidents but don't react to it generally get less injuries than those who do. It's why drunk drivers walk away from accidents so much. They maintain a loose body throughout the impact and there's no torque or bracing. QBs have adopted this by crumpling down on impact and not trying to fight through sacks.

Open field runners that last a while tend to be ones that give themselves up before contact or get out of bounds. I don't really see how you can avoid injuries if you don't avoid contact.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Doltos posted:

The idea is that people who get into car accidents but don't react to it generally get less injuries than those who do. It's why drunk drivers walk away from accidents so much. They maintain a loose body throughout the impact and there's no torque or bracing. QBs have adopted this by crumpling down on impact and not trying to fight through sacks.

Open field runners that last a while tend to be ones that give themselves up before contact or get out of bounds. I don't really see how you can avoid injuries if you don't avoid contact.

Related to your point is to not fight TOO hard when going down. Essentially, fold your legs when someone is dragging you down or going for the low tackle. If your legs are firmly planted, with cleats dug into the turf, that's when you get serious injuries and why the NFL banned 'hip drop' tackles that take the defender's body weight and slams it into the target's knees or ankles.

Of course we don't want a sport where everyone is collapsing into a limp ball the second they get contact, but I really do think some players are more aware of this than others and are able to think quickly enough to avoid really dangerous situations. I've seen them do it. Better to lift the legs and tumble than to take a big shot to the side of a planted leg.

That being said, luck is still the largest overall factor (not including position), followed by genetics. It's just a fact that some people have strong ligaments and others don't, to the point that some people don't even have them at all. Which is why I think injury history is probably more relevant than size.

Which makes me think, could a sports doctor evaluate the strength of a player's ligaments with a CT scan? Obviously they can see damage but I wonder if they can also determine how thick and healthy they are.

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



I finished my top 100 rankings. Just need to write up some more notes, but it's done. It's mostly less wonky then I thought it would be. There's a few players where I diverge wildly from the consensus (fautanu, wtf film are people watching to put him in the top 10?) , but a lot more that are really close.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

I finished my top 100 rankings. Just need to write up some more notes, but it's done. It's mostly less wonky then I thought it would be. There's a few players where I diverge wildly from the consensus (fautanu, wtf film are people watching to put him in the top 10?) , but a lot more that are really close.

Yeah I don't understand the Fautanu love at all

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

my 380th ranked player is baylor cupp. i know what you'r ethinking. that's insanely high. well just you wait. and in the meantime let's be respectful

The Big Jesus
Oct 29, 2007

#essereFerrari

Play posted:

If I had to choose some odds I really like, they would be:

- A parley of first WR/OL/CB taken with MHJ, Alt, and Quinyon.
- Maye going second overall, and maybe also a perfect top 5 picks bet with that setup.
- AD Mitchel, Quinyon and Xavier Legette unders on positions, Terrion/DeJean overs.
- Maybe I'd go QB over, assuming the top three and JJ and either Penix or Nix to be taken late in the first round by someone trading up.

Curious what anyone else thinks about these, I wasn't really surprised by anything, I think the media probably keeps an eye on the line as well. If you know any dirt on a prospect, now would be the time for some lucrative insider trading.

Arnold has gotten enough chatter that I’d stay away from Quinyon CB1 in a parlay.
Maye second overall is my biggest position this draft by a longshot. His odds got as long as +270 (implied odds of like 30%) two nights ago which was just ridiculous. It’s probably close enough to correct now, with them being roughly even to Daniels. A lot of scuttlebutt has come out of Daniels’ agent not being happy with how the commanders had 20 prospects out at the same time and now he has a visit with the Vikings, who they’d been ignoring earlier. The new GM Peter’s is super tight-lipped, like the 49ers are. People in the org don’t even know it seems. Maye makes more sense for a variety of reasons IMO but I’m biased. Id avoid a top5 exacta. If Maye goes 2 it’s unknown if the pats would go JJM or Daniels, cards and chargers are big time trade candidates. There’s just better bets to place.
AD Mitchell under is a little scary, supposedly some teams have been scared off of him. He’s somebody whose stock has been falling, maybe give it some more time and play the under.
I’ve got a super small position on u4.5 QBs. I just don’t see Nix or Penix making it. It feels like it would take a trade up at the end of the round and I feel like that’s talked about more than it happens.

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

I finished my top 100 rankings. Just need to write up some more notes, but it's done. It's mostly less wonky then I thought it would be. There's a few players where I diverge wildly from the consensus (fautanu, wtf film are people watching to put him in the top 10?) , but a lot more that are really close.

I feel like he’s getting overrated mainly on the back of his supposed versatility but yeah he should definitely be late teens at best

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
https://x.com/MatthewColler/status/1781469376870326751


Lmao

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Spoilers: I have him at 60.

I don't think he's an NFL tackle at all, and I think there are better guards available. If you're looking for a guard with flexibility I like Barton significantly better. I'll have more to say in my notes.

Hopeful I can get it out tonight so everyone can agree that it's a terrible list.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

The Big Jesus posted:

Arnold has gotten enough chatter that I’d stay away from Quinyon CB1 in a parlay.
Maye second overall is my biggest position this draft by a longshot. His odds got as long as +270 (implied odds of like 30%) two nights ago which was just ridiculous. It’s probably close enough to correct now, with them being roughly even to Daniels. A lot of scuttlebutt has come out of Daniels’ agent not being happy with how the commanders had 20 prospects out at the same time and now he has a visit with the Vikings, who they’d been ignoring earlier. The new GM Peter’s is super tight-lipped, like the 49ers are. People in the org don’t even know it seems. Maye makes more sense for a variety of reasons IMO but I’m biased. Id avoid a top5 exacta. If Maye goes 2 it’s unknown if the pats would go JJM or Daniels, cards and chargers are big time trade candidates. There’s just better bets to place.
AD Mitchell under is a little scary, supposedly some teams have been scared off of him. He’s somebody whose stock has been falling, maybe give it some more time and play the under.
I’ve got a super small position on u4.5 QBs. I just don’t see Nix or Penix making it. It feels like it would take a trade up at the end of the round and I feel like that’s talked about more than it happens.

And this is why I only gamble with hot air

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

SKULL.GIF posted:

I paid so much more attention to last year's draft than this year's even though the Packers have more top-100 picks now.

Part of it is probably just trusting the process now since last year's draft looks like it could be a home-run for the Packers, but I can't really engage with the nonstop QB talk.

I feel like this draft podcast season has focused more on just the top prospects than previous draft seasons.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

Spoilers: I have him at 60.

I don't think he's an NFL tackle at all, and I think there are better guards available. If you're looking for a guard with flexibility I like Barton significantly better. I'll have more to say in my notes.

Hopeful I can get it out tonight so everyone can agree that it's a terrible list.

This is an insane take. I’m quoting this post for posterity.

His main flaw relative to peers is he’s not as tall. He’s not a perfect prospect but he’s really good.

A more constructive conversation I guess: what film are you watching of his that makes you think he’s so terrible? What game?

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



The list 1-50

1 Malik Nabers WR1
2 Jayden Daniels QB1
3 Marvin Harrison Jr WR2
4 JJ McCarthy QB2
5 Joe Alt OT1
6 Brock Bowers TE1
7 Rome Odunze WR3
8 Caleb Williams QB3
9 Taliese Fuaga OT2
10 Terrion Arnold CB1
11 Amarius Mims OT3
12 Drake Maye QB4
13 Olu Fashanu OT4
14 Laiatu Latu EDGE1
15 Johnny Newton IDL1
16 Byron Murphy II IDL2
17 Chop Robinson EDGE2
18 Nate Wiggins CB2
19 Dallas Turner EDGE3
20 Quinyon Mitchell CB3
21 Jared Verse EDGE4
22 Cooper Beebe IOL1 !!
23 Ladd McConkey WR4
24 Troy Franklin WR5
25 Javon Bullard S1
26 JC Latham OT5
27 Kool-Aid McKinstry CB4
28 Jonathon Brooks RB1 !!!
29 Michael Penix Jr QB5
30 Payton Wilson LB1
31 Graham Barton IOL2
32 Brian Thomas Jr WR6
33 Cooper DeJean CB5
34 Jackson Powers-Johnson IOL3
35 Tyler Nubin S2
36 Adonai Mitchell WR7
37 Ben Sinnott TE2
38 Kamari Lassiter CB6
39 Roman Wilson WR8
40 Edgerrin Cooper LB2
41 Michael Hall Jr IDL3
42 Jordan Morgan IOL4
43 Ricky Pearsall WR9
44 T'Vondre Sweat IDL4
45 Trey Benson RB2
46 Chris Braswell EDGE5
47 Patrick Paul OT6
48 Junior Colson LB3
49 Jermaine Burton WR10
50 Jaylen Wright RB3

General Notes:

Why the gently caress is it formatted like this? Because I do the entirety of my scouting on my phone with a notepad app and YouTube. I do it while my toddler is sleeping on me, which is often. I hate the mobile Google docs spreadsheet app.

QBs: I don't really care about QBs. I'm not that interested in grading them. I just watch a bunch of games for them. I take no notes. I dissect no plays. I just kinda go with whatever my unconscious brain spits out. Yeah they're jacked in my rankings. I don't care.

RBs: I like this class way more than most. I think Brooks, Benson, and Wright are actually good. I do think those guys go earlier than consensus expects

WRs: I put them in the order I liked them. I looked at the numbers, I watched a lot of film, this is how I have them. There's like 30 of them. We're gonna have different orders for them. It's fine.

Specific players that deviate considerably from consensus:

Chop Robinson and Johnny Newton: The reason I have both these guys higher than some people is because of the suddenness with which they win. Pass rush win rate is all well and good. What I really value is how quickly a defender wins, because I think that's more important in projecting to the NFL. Byron Murphy has an absurd PRWR, and while It can happen quickly for him it's often not. He'll eventually win most matchups with horrifying strength, but in the NFL passes happen fast. I don't really care if you won 3.5 seconds into the play. That's not me crapping on BM2. He's great, but he's a different type of DL than Newton.

Cooper Beebe: I kept moving this guy up my boards and it's because he's the player I'm most sure about. Being sure about prospects is a loosing proposition, but if forced to pick a guy outside the blue chips who I think is a long term plus starter in the NFL it's him. I don't think he's ever gonna be one of the best guards in the league, but he'll be pretty good. I value that more than most I guess.

The Kool-Aid Man: I don't understand why he's slipped down the big boards? Looks really good to me.

Ben Sinnott: I think Sinnott compares favorably with last year's class. I'd put him right in the mix on the TE run last year. He's got good YAC, he's got some unexpected subtly in route running, good body control, finds the hole against zone, really nice transition from catcher to runner. His inline blocking is good. He struggles to identify his target when he's blocking in space, but when he does land he's pretty good. He's closer to Bowers than the next guy is close to him.

Jordan Morgan: Don't like him that much as a tackle, like him a lot as a guard.

Jermaine Burton: He gets an insane amount of separation. It's wild. He's got some red flags with being older, and really not posting a breakout season until the end. It's COVID years. I dunno. High chancw of being wrong here.

A Sneaker Broker
Feb 14, 2020

Daily Dose of Internet Brain Rot
Jermaine Burton as all the goddamn talent in the world (Watch his Texas A&M tape. Good Lord.) However, his off-the-field issues are a big red flag and should draw questions.

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

good stuff to read & look at gareth. thanks. you're my registered on consecutive days bubby unless that was a re-reg

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Jermaine Burton as all the goddamn talent in the world (Watch his Texas A&M tape. Good Lord.) However, his off-the-field issues are a big red flag and should draw questions.

I think the only red flag I've ever heard about Burton is when he hit a lady rushing the field and even then he was shoving through the crowd

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

some people like brugler say burton has never met a coach that didn't hate his guts after a while. semi off field and maybe not true. don't know

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I want to push back on the idea that Washington and NE have to make their move at quarterback now and say that depends on how committed you are to a rebuild. The Bears got supremely lucky in getting the number one pick, but they also made a point of doing a complete teardown and rebuild to put themselves into the position of getting their quarterback this year. No matter their record this year, they were likely to have two top 15 picks to make their move at quarterback and have enough pieces around him to succeed.

Taking a guy without a development plan is how the Bears ended up ruining Justin Fields. It might not work with Caleb, but there is no denying he has been set up incredibly well to succeed. New England and Washington would be way better off long term taking that approach. It isn't even that hard of a sell to the fanbase.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Cavauro posted:

some people like brugler say burton has never met a coach that didn't hate his guts after a while. semi off field and maybe not true. don't know

I dunno I can see it I guess since he takes plays off when he's not the first read and he was kind of a headache in the recruiting process but whatever, he's a WR. They're either saints or psychotics.

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

yea. give him the ball

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Sataere posted:

I want to push back on the idea that Washington and NE have to make their move at quarterback now and say that depends on how committed you are to a rebuild. The Bears got supremely lucky in getting the number one pick, but they also made a point of doing a complete teardown and rebuild to put themselves into the position of getting their quarterback this year. No matter their record this year, they were likely to have two top 15 picks to make their move at quarterback and have enough pieces around him to succeed.

Taking a guy without a development plan is how the Bears ended up ruining Justin Fields. It might not work with Caleb, but there is no denying he has been set up incredibly well to succeed. New England and Washington would be way better off long term taking that approach. It isn't even that hard of a sell to the fanbase.

The bears ruined Fields because the coaches were lovely and he had among the worst surrounding talent in the league for *multiple* years.

If we consider your hypothetical scenario where the bears end up with two top 15 picks, that wouldn’t be enough to get Caleb or <QB2>. That would maybe be enough to get <QB3>. And probably be enough to get <QB4>. So would the bears be noticeably better with JJ McCarthy instead of Fields (and the two other hypothetical top 15 picks)?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Ornery and Hornery posted:

The bears ruined Fields because the coaches were lovely and he had among the worst surrounding talent in the league for *multiple* years.

If we consider your hypothetical scenario where the bears end up with two top 15 picks, that wouldn’t be enough to get Caleb or <QB2>. That would maybe be enough to get <QB3>. And probably be enough to get <QB4>. So would the bears be noticeably better with JJ McCarthy instead of Fields (and the two other hypothetical top 15 picks)?

They ruined Fields when they let a GM draft him and fired that man a year later. At that point, the new GM had to pick between developing a QB he didn't draft or addressing the numerous problems the previous regime left him.

My point with the two top fifteen picks was more to illustrate the unpredictability of the second pick. The Bears were always going to have a top ten pick because that is how they were built. They also spent the last couple years building up a lot of draft captial. They don't have as much this year, but they do have a lot of capital next year. Two first rounders this year and a future first would have allowed them to move with any team willing to trade and I think New Englad would move for that compensation.

I think it is very likely that NE is trading down and the Bears would be able to move into that spot. And one of Daniels/Maye with the supporting cast they have would do very well for them. I've always been of the school of thought that more quarterbacks are ruined than developed.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Sataere posted:

Taking a guy without a development plan is how the Bears ended up ruining Justin Fields. It might not work with Caleb, but there is no denying he has been set up incredibly well to succeed. New England and Washington would be way better off long term taking that approach. It isn't even that hard of a sell to the fanbase.

I'm gonna have to go with cavauro on this one. If you're actually good, your talent will shine through regardless of situation. If you have the drive and dedication, a couple tough years of losing, changing coaches, and taking sacks won't stop you from getting there.

Justin Fields is a potential backup now because he's not that good at throwing a football. Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, they were all always going to disappoint.

The idea that you can 'ruin' someone permanently by fielding a bad team around them, has always seemed like bullshit to me.

The only exception to that is if your protection is so bad that you ruin someone through serious injuries. That could be possible. The narrative of making good QBs permanently bad because the team is bad, I just don't buy that.

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Part 2: 51-100

51 Bo Nix QB6
52 Tyler Guyton OT7
53 Marshawn Kneeland EDGE6
54 Kris Jenkins IDL4
55 TJ Tampa CB7
56 Christian Mahogany IOL5
57 Xavier Worthy WR11
58 Xavier Legette WR12
59 Troy Fautanu IOL6
60 Cole Bishop S3
61 Christian Haynes IOL7
62 Zach Frazier IOL8
63 Darius Robinson EDGE7
64 Ennis Rakestraw Jr CB8
65 Adisa Isaac EDGE8
66 Jeremiah Trotter Jr LB4
67 Kiran Amegadjie OT8
68 Brenden Rice WR13
69 MarShawn Lloyd RB4
70 Malik Washington WR14
71 Ruke Orhorhoro IDL5
72 Mike Sainristil CB9
73 Roger Rosengarten OT9
74 Braden Fiske IDL6
75 Gabriel Murphy EDGE9
76 Javon Baker WR15
77 Johnny Wilson WR16
78 Jaheim Bell TE3
79 Jaden Hicks S4
80 Ja'Lynn Polk WR17
81 Kingsley Suamataia OT10
82 Austin Booker EDGE10
83 Max Melton CB10
84 Braden Trice EDGE11
85 Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S5
86 Keon Coleman WR18
87 Leonard Taylor III IDL7
88 Trevin Wallace LB5
89 Dominick Puni OT11
90 Renardo Green CB11
91 Mehki Wingo IDL8
92 Sedrick Van Pran IOL7
93 Devontez Walker WR19
94 Calen Bullock S6
95 Tahj Washington WR20
96 Mohamed Kamara EDGE12
97 Ja'Tavion Sanders TE4
98 Mason McCormick IOL8
99 Malachi Corley WR21
100 Tracy Jones RB5

Troy Fautanu: I don't hate him. Got a 2nd round grade on him as a guard. That's pretty high! No doubt he's an athlete, but I'll have some more words on that in a minute. Really quick out of his stance. Moves great. He can't play tackle in the NFL. He will get beat cleanly, and he will get beat often. Play Strength: he's not that strong, which in and of itself isn't that big of a deal. The problem, for me, comes when you combine that with some of the more concerning aspects of his film. He punches with two hands a lot, which is something you don't see much anymore in the NFL because rushers are real good at both giving you a small target and swatting them down. In college he's enough of an athlete to overcome the natural imbalance this creates, but in college most rushers aren't good enough to swipe cleanly. He actually has some balance issues in general. He's not as good at sustaining blocks inline as you'd like to see because he's overeager in flowing through the play, which allows defenders to disengage by changing direction. NFL defensive lineman are going to feast on that tendency to carry his momentum, and the balance issues are gonna lead to a lot of holding penalties in the NFL. He gives a lot ground on bull rushes like Patrick Paul, but Paul is a lot cleaner technically. Paul is also pretty passive, whereas Fautanu is very aggressive. He needs to be less aggressive, but more aggressive than Paul. I actually like Fautanu pulling quite a bit. His athleticism lends itself to blocking in space. His lack of strength means he's unable to displace defensive tackles inline in the run game. In the championship game against Michigan Fautanu is getting no where on double teams against Mason Graham. Look, Graham is probably gonna be a top 10 pick next year. It's a tough assignment. It's not gonna get that much easier in the NFL though.

I like a lot of his traits as guard. I'm very skeptical about him as a tackle, especially cause he's god drat old. He's the type of tackle that gonna look pretty good against bottom to middling pass rush teams and get absolutely hammered against top defenses.

I also want to talk about athletic testing, because I think people use stuff like RAS in a counterproductive way. More number is not more better as a player. Athletic testing has extremely limited predictive value, but I rhink there are baselines that are more or less necessary to be good in the NFL. I don't know where exactly those baselines are for each position. It's pretty high for tackles, but it's not Troy Fautanu high. It's almost non-existent for safeties. Tyler Nubin clocking in with a 3.67 RAS. I don't care. An OT posting like a 6.2 or something I think warrants investigation. The short end is a 9.4 RAS OT doesn't have a better chance to succeed than an 8.5 RAS, especially when we're missing the piece that's even slightly meaningful in the agility testing. This is all to say that I think people get enamoured with athletes. Especially ones that perform well on good teams, and Fautanu did perform well in college. That's obviously true. I'm not questioning his athleticism, but I don't see his game translating well.

Jaheim Bell: After Fautanu, and whatever the duck I'm doing with the QBs, this is probably my wildest departure from the consensus. I really like the TE/FB/RB/WR enigma of Jaheim Bell. I don't know what exactly you're gonna do with him. I don't make enough money to figure that out. In the right system, he's gonna create match up nightmares. Kinda want to see him in Miami.

Gabriel Murphy: Has the wins quick thing that I'm a big fan of. Like his film against Fuaga. Like most of his film. He's a bit feast or famine, but I can see him as a pretty explosive rotational piece.

The IDLs: I'm really not a fan of this class. I feel like after Jenkins you're throwing darts at the board. I'm sure some of them will hit, gently caress if I could tell you which ones though.

Gareth Gobulcoque fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Apr 20, 2024

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
I got Mo Kamara in the second round he's so smart and fast. I'm glad you have Braden Fiske appropriately lower than the hype

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



Doltos posted:

I got Mo Kamara in the second round he's so smart and fast. I'm glad you have Braden Fiske appropriately lower than the hype

I don't hate Fiske, I think he'll be a cool rotational piece. He just doesn't have the play strength to be a 3 down guy. It's that athlete thing again.

I like Kamara a lot, and wouldn't argue with putting him higher.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Play posted:

I'm gonna have to go with cavauro on this one. If you're actually good, your talent will shine through regardless of situation. If you have the drive and dedication, a couple tough years of losing, changing coaches, and taking sacks won't stop you from getting there.

Justin Fields is a potential backup now because he's not that good at throwing a football. Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, they were all always going to disappoint.

The idea that you can 'ruin' someone permanently by fielding a bad team around them, has always seemed like bullshit to me.

The only exception to that is if your protection is so bad that you ruin someone through serious injuries. That could be possible. The narrative of making good QBs permanently bad because the team is bad, I just don't buy that.

Fields is good and I think he will he fine. And when he does well in Pittsburgh, it will be a very strong case for how important development actually is. The idea that if you are good you will always be good might be true in other sports, but football is too dependent on coaching and development.

Nosre
Apr 16, 2002


Sataere posted:

I want to push back on the idea that Washington and NE have to make their move at quarterback now and say that depends on how committed you are to a rebuild. The Bears got supremely lucky in getting the number one pick, but they also made a point of doing a complete teardown and rebuild to put themselves into the position of getting their quarterback this year. No matter their record this year, they were likely to have two top 15 picks to make their move at quarterback and have enough pieces around him to succeed.

Taking a guy without a development plan is how the Bears ended up ruining Justin Fields. It might not work with Caleb, but there is no denying he has been set up incredibly well to succeed. New England and Washington would be way better off long term taking that approach. It isn't even that hard of a sell to the fanbase.

From the NE perspective, the whole offseason and all of this relies on the hope that they've fixed their offensive coaching staff and do have a development plan now.

If they don't, none of this matters and we'll need to wait 2-3 years for Mayo and Wolf to be fired and do it all again. Because if they can't develop a guy now, they also can't next year or the year after (plus that introduces all sorts of new uncertainties re: the quality of the rookie prospect)

Nosre
Apr 16, 2002


Relentlessboredomm posted:

Yea I was emphasizing OL bc that's where Wash has holes unlike the Pats which have holes everywhere on offense. That's sort of the whole point, Wash has less holes on offense and more high picks to address them

To me there's literally 1 guy's worth of difference in the offensive talent - McLaurin. It's about a wash in TE, RB, and the rest of the receivers.

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?
Having Polk and Coleman as WR17 and WR18 is sure a spicy one.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

wandler20 posted:

Having Polk and Coleman as WR17 and WR18 is sure a spicy one.

I can see it. Polk is a zone poker that finds his spot and then hooks, he wasn't tasked with as much down the field safety work as Odunze and McMillan. Coleman I only love because of his MSU season before transferring and that he flashes a lot of potential if you just send him on slants over and over.

Cash Monet
Apr 5, 2009

Play posted:

I'm gonna have to go with cavauro on this one. If you're actually good, your talent will shine through regardless of situation. If you have the drive and dedication, a couple tough years of losing, changing coaches, and taking sacks won't stop you from getting there.

Justin Fields is a potential backup now because he's not that good at throwing a football. Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, they were all always going to disappoint.

The idea that you can 'ruin' someone permanently by fielding a bad team around them, has always seemed like bullshit to me.

The only exception to that is if your protection is so bad that you ruin someone through serious injuries. That could be possible. The narrative of making good QBs permanently bad because the team is bad, I just don't buy that.

I think a bad situation can ruin a QB because it's way, way easier to form bad habits and traits in a bad situation.

I think Mac Jones is a good example: you saw what his ceiling was his rookie season but then he got worse in consecutive seasons because of what was going on around him. It wasn't just a dip in production either, you could see his processing regressed.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
tbf I don't think Mac Jones was particularly good his rookie season. Extremely overrated if you actually like watched him.
My thoughts generally are I think a great QB within 3-4 years will shine or be above average -> good regardless of situation.

I think you can make pretty much any decent like ~20-25ish QB have a mac jones/Gardner Minshew type season if you do put them in great circumstances, with a great system, that minimizes their weaknesses, and be a solid fringe playoff team. But like that's roughly the ceiling, unless you just loving assemble an allstar team of a roster around them.

It's workable, and it's a choice, but personally it's not what I am seeking with a QB.

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
Mac Jones was a fraud his rookie year. Using him as an example of a team failing a player is uh misguided

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Sataere posted:

I've always been of the school of thought that more quarterbacks are ruined than developed.

I tend to agree. Like if we magically had 32 clones of Andy Reid, head coaching all the teams, then we’d see a lot more qb success.

But I also think QBs are ruined because of more factors than just one season of bad supporting talent.

E: not saying that was your specific argument. Responding more to the idea that a team should not draft a qb just because they have poor surrounding talent.

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Apr 20, 2024

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