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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Dane Brugler gave Marvin Harrison jr the Larry Fitzgerald comp

wawawewa

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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
I'll be honest with you, the name Caleb Williams makes me think of the Muppet Musicians of Bremen "Mean Old Caleb Siles" song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEFG9jBHSek

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
If the Lions pick the BPA at 29, who is that?

I guess the consensus need position is CB, they're pretty good at nickel/safety/okay at LB. But basically don't have starting caliber corners

Another need is an offensive lineman who can play whenever Jonah Jackson is hurt, and Goff is completely reliant on an intact line.

Could probably also use a DT.

Is it just going to end up being whichever cb like mock drafts are saying?

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Ornery and Hornery posted:

It’s obviously difficult to say at this point.

Generally speaking there are a lot of good OL and WR prospects projected to be around there so I’d say generally just based on probability it would overwhelmingly be one of those two positions. A distant third would be DL.

That's what I was wondering, I'm extremely new to paying attention to NFL draft scouting beyond looking at mocks now and again, but it seems to pay off to draft out of the "there are lots of good X position guys in this year's first" pools, cause your odds of getting a good player seem to pick up a bit.

and picking to bolster a strength instead of to patch a weakness is not a bad idea.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Grozz Nuy posted:

If you sit him for two years you're wasting two seasons of his rookie deal. Anybody who needs to sit for that long just isn't that good of a prospect.

I get the cap argument. We literally have it right now with mr irrelevant and the highest paid and best qb (who was taking a discount but got his contract adjusted to be ahead of Chris Jones in yearly pay).

But what about the fact that all the best QBs sat a year?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...likely-succeed/

I would almost sit my rookie QB for a year just to get that good juju going. If you check that chart it's insane how many of the top qbs sat for at least a year. And Jordache love looks like he's going to be a member of the "sat for at least a year and became great" group

NFL offense is hard and it really seems to help guys processing to participate in practice and be mentored a little bit before setting off. the day 1 starters are not a happy group

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Mel Kuiper impression:

You have a guy... who is a guy... who can be a guy... to be a guy... who guys recognize as...

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Doltos posted:

It's always been weird to me that Mel Kiper only has to work 4 months out of the year and he can't even do that. What kind of jaded entertainer do you have to be to not even watch film or be aware of NFL team needs? It's literally the easiest poo poo and just takes a modicum of effort.

I absolutely love Mel as a TV personality, but they definitely fired the guy who knows more about the thing he's supposed to be covering (Todd McShay)

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

SKULL.GIF posted:

Jesus how many sons of former NFL stars are in this draft? There's like at least four or five.

luther ellis’s son is in, plays d line for the utes

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
What are your personal weird rules of thumb for scouting/the draft?

I've been really into basketball prospect scouting and I have a handful of principles that are sacred to me, but most don't know about or just don't care about them.

Do you guys have any personal tests you use, or weirdly specific lines you won't cross?

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

I'm new at this. I did a bunch of tape watching last year and had a rough tier ranking.

Very logical. Makes sense to me.

Doltos posted:

Here's how I do it:

1. Turn on youtube video of the prospect's toughest match up, watch it
2. Look to see if they're faster/stronger/quicker than everyone else around them or if they display great body control
3. Go google what the offensive and defensive scheme was supposed to be
4. Look up injury history

Appreciate it daltos. It's almost fun to develop those rules of thumb just to have guys who break them succeed every once in a while so that you can use the world's best phrase "exceptions prove rules"

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Doltos posted:

I'd say it's less exception proves the rule and more that there are no rules. I think it's equally as silly to drat someone for having an ugly girlfriend as it is for having small hands. The short arms thing on linemen is bad in my opinion because I've yet to see anything that short arms are that debilitating in the NFL. Against my own preference, body catches are totally viable and plenty of guys catch with their body who also snatch the ball out of the air. I just think that grabbing the ball away from the body displays hand eye coordination and mindfullness to utilize your arms to create separation.

To be fancy, it's a heuristic, not a law

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Doltos posted:

If JJ is QB3 it's based entirely on potential and zero what he showed at Michigan. Even for a Jim Harbaugh offense he was a checkdown machine. He's got not timing on sideline routes or middle seams. I think it's going to be a disaster pick but who knows?

this is my least favorite type of prospect, where both numbers and eye test say …🤷

But there’s all this hype about how real scouts love them due to winning and secret traits that didn’t show on the field

do those guys pan out? ever? genuinely asking

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Cash Monet posted:

In terms of just bottom line production taking a tight end in the top 10 probably isn't good value.

There aren't a ton of guys who can put up wide receiver numbers. Maybe Bowers is one of them, but it's a bigger gamble than taking someone at a higher value position.

Cash Monet posted:

In terms of just bottom line production taking a tight end in the top 10 probably isn't good value.

There aren't a ton of guys who can put up wide receiver numbers. Maybe Bowers is one of them, but it's a bigger gamble than taking someone at a higher value position.

like travis kelce, brock bowers is a TE in name only, ie he is a white guy you can pay less than if he had WR by his name.

he plays like travis kelce, ie wr who blocks a few times per game, not like gronk, or any other actual TE you could name

and wide receivers are drafted in the top 10 every year

so the question is, do you look at his tape and think he is a really good wide receiver, if yes, then draft him. If you don’t, then don’t

imho a lot of people are weighing in without actually knowing how he plays

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Feb 21, 2024

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

BlindSite posted:

I've seen in it in other ball in hand football codes so you would think so.

Tua learned to fall better last offseason, which is legitimately a thing, guys have learned to slide as pros etc.

Cam didn't figure it out because he got thrashed outside of his running plays, refs let guys hit him late in the pocket and lead with their helmet literally every loving game. He was also averse to needles and surgery which undoubtedly shortened his career. He also had really dumb, unscientific opinions on nutrition which hurt over time.

What were his nutrition ideas?

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

BlindSite posted:

At one point he ate so much fish his mercury levels went through the roof because he tried being a pescatarian, then he tried to be a vegan and did raw food or some other stupidity while drinking and smoking cigars on the reg.

that's amazing. like just ordering thousands of dollars of nigiri and feeling amazing before the mercury starts really adding up in your blood

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Brock Bowers is a good value for the Raiders at 13, playing a very shrug of a guy at QB, that power slot stuff turns dump offs and check downs into first downs, will possibly trick people into thinking Aidan (loving gen z rear end QB name) is something more than a scrappy Irish lad

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Relentlessboredomm posted:

didnt they sign Gardner Minshew? I assume that's who's starting

Yeah you're right, I completely missed that. Gardner will inevitably end up hurt though, so just pretend that's already happened and then my post is right.

Maybe Gardner and Brock can make some magic happen together

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

mcmagic posted:

I'm sure Penix loves to hear this lol

I honestly think they mollify him by telling him Cousins is going to miss the opening few games of the season, and he'll get some starting reps.

Cause Cousins tore his achilles on oct 29, probably had surgery a couple days afterwards. That means the season will be like 8 games in by the time he clears a year, which is a normal time to just "be back" from an achilles, with the full recovery taking 1.5-2 years, not full as in status quo ante, but as good as it's going to get.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

wandler20 posted:

And he's in his late 30s so might not heal as fast. He's gonna get Bledsoe'd without playing a snap.

It's crazy, right? The Penix pick at 8 looks like the most extreme and rapid case of buyer's remorse in free agency that I can remember.

Like I hope Cousins bounces back and it's all fine, everything is cool for all time, but this could end in such a brutal fashion.

quote:

https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1925t33/an_achilles_tear_is_almost_always_a_terminal/

This site with citations by numerous peer reviewed sources, tracks NFL recovery of players over the past decade. It is from the fantasy prospective so it doesn't follow non-skill positions. Other studies do, which I read as well. This one just does the best summary. The tl:dr is that only about 30% of full tear/repairs ever return to play in the NFL. Those who do return to play often have an extremely short shelf life. The average injury to return time is about 43 weeks for those who do.

No NFL starting QB ever tore an achilles before Rogers/Cousins. But it's brutal for skill players. I am incredibly dubious either of the two will be anything but a shell of their prior selves. And if they have to throw entirely from their torso up, expect arm/shoulder/back injuries. I think Minnesota dodged an $180 million dollar bullet, or about 45 patriot interceptor missiles worth of dollhairs.

This has to be a "cousins isn't going to come back in prior form ever" panic pick

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 06:23 on Apr 26, 2024

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Doltos posted:

I think Quinyon was far from CB1 and a project boom/bust pick.

Do you like Arnold?

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Forgive me if anyone else has brought this up, but isn't the "always trade down" crowd missing the obvious that this is only a functional strategy if you have someone willing to give a fair value for the trade down?

Takes two to tango and all that. The NFL is very chummy so it wouldn't be surprising if there were plenty of times a team would maybe wish to trade down, but none of their friend-teams were interested, so you just make the pick.


different but related thing
There was a guy on kevin clark's podcast talking about how you should value a draft by the second contract values of the picks, which is fine but the value of the rookie deal is huge part of why a pick in itself is valuable. Teams really like a functional player on a cheap deal. Even if their second contract is just at the median, those initial cheap years are great ROI.

Also ignores developmental guys whose second deals will be lower

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Apr 29, 2024

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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Play posted:

No that's totally correct. It's often difficult or impossible to find a partner to trade down with, usually it comes entirely at the behest of the team that wants to trade up.

You also have to get a good enough deal for it. The theory is mainly that more picks equals more chances to hit, whatever the other conditions.

Right. football is such a synergistic game that certain guys might not be high value second contract players but their existence makes it possible for someone else to be that. I'm not saying that gut hunch picking and trading up are more optimal, just that there's way more to it than just more picks for more guys who make more money in their second deal. I've really come to appreciate football cause you can't just flatten things out, there's so much nuance and intangible stuff involved

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