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predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Alaois posted:

JJ McCarthy is not only a bad quarterback but he's also a complete freak that i cant imagine any coach would want to deal with other than jim harbaugh who is also a complete freak in a similar way

Aaron Rodgers is a complete nutcase. Doesn't stop him from footbaw success.






(no JJ is not Aaron Rodgers)

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predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Manoueverable posted:

Penix and McCarthy both sucked tonight, woe be to the team that drafts either

Penix is going to be extremely good for his entire 2.5 year NFL career

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
McCarthy is highly unlikely to bust out as a pro, and you would have to be a complete idiot to take him in the first round (but the Raiders might lol).

But he does have a good (not great) arm, good accuracy, good legs, good judgment, and completed 73 percent of his passes with a good YPA. At worst he's going to carry a clipboard for years and not embarrass himself when he occasionally gets to play.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Diva Cupcake posted:

Probably for the best. Curious if this means Arch is transferring.
https://twitter.com/QuinnEwers/status/1745491712326127695?s=20

I hear someone tracked a Manning chartered private jet heading to Ann Arbor Michigan last night

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

fsif posted:

Is there a single poster in TFF that has Maye above Daniels?

So do the draftniks here think Maye is going to be a Josh Rosen 2.0 bust? Or just that Daniels has greater potential?

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

AndrewP posted:

the arm talent is loving bonkers. Chicago please draft this guy and keep him out of the AFC

Mahomes level arm talent and incredible highlight reel. My only question is that he had 8:seconds to throw in almost all of those clips. To keep plays alive that long in the NFL you need Russell Wilson level escapability. Pretty much no one has that.
So I think that the Bears should pass on Caleb and leave him as a consolation prize for my Commanders.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Dexo posted:

Why and how does that say Daniels vs Maye lol?

Mariota is more of a mobile QB than a pocket passer. I suspect that if you are going to install a new offense and blocking scheme for a new potential franchise quarterback you would also get a veteran stopgap who plays the same style.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Play posted:


I honestly kind of like Nabers better than Harrison in a lot of ways. They are very different, and it would depend on what I need for a team, but I can totally see taking Nabers over Harrison in certain situations. Odunze not so much for me


Isn't Odunze the one that pretty much catches every contested, catchable throw in his area?

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
QBs are far, far more important than anything else, and I like JJ and he helped get us a natty, but if he is taken at the No. 4 pick, then lol lmao

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

wandler20 posted:

Paige Dimakos is a poo poo person.

She actually sounds not much different than every "fake it till you make it" CEO of a startup.. i.e. 98 percent of them.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Cornelius Johnson is sneaking up the board.

Wait am I reading that correctly? A top 1 percent all time combine result for a WR? I would not have guessed that.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Guaranteed to go the the Cowboys now

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

A Sneaker Broker posted:

DUI's aside, who is that one prospect in this year's Draft that is "Your Guy"? If you had to pick one to bank your future on, who?

Marvin Harrison Jr.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
Does it matter that not only are Daniels's stats better than Maye's, but Daniels was getting his numbers while playing in the SEC (plus Florida State) while Maye was getting his numbers while playing an ACC schedule? UNC was 71st in strength of schedule last year and only played 2 teams ranked in the top 25 (and none in the top 20). People seem to knock Daniels for having better wide receivers, but don't say anything about Maye facing slower defenses.

Or is that just not significant?

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

JGdmn posted:

Yeah, it’s outside Fresno. One of those places you only know by accidentally taking a wrong turn. I dated a girl whose family lived in an even tinier town just south of it. The area between 99 and 5 is just dire.

A suburb of Sanger, lol

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Play posted:

Coincidentally, there was an article in the athletic today about draft strategy, human biases, and the undervalued approach of trading down and acquiring future picks.

Thought it was pretty interesting.

It is interesting. Kind of explains why Belichek and Ozzie Newsome were the primary guys consistently trading down - they were the only GMs with enough job security to do it consistently and risk the heat.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

We're all bad at this though. Because it's hard. You'll never account for all the variables that determine NFL success. Even if you're really, really good at scouting you're hitting at what high 50's, low 60's percentage? That's when you get to look at everybody. When you have 8 picks with a whole bunch of additional factors that we don't need to consider when doing ranking like needs, scheme, culture fit, whatever. It's gonna be lower.

It's part of the reason I'm not a huge fan of drafting the BPA. Odds you've correctly identified the best pick available are real low. Take needs for now and the immediate future. Draft multiple of them.

Plus sometimes you make good picks for players with real talent, but they don't work out for other reasons. They blow out a knee or something.
The more picks the better.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Play posted:

Yeah yeah, I really do know all that. It's still surprising to me, somehow. The fact is that teams have access to a lot of information that the media and the general public do not, which you would think would give them a huge advantage. Knowing these prospects personally, private workouts, meetings, whiteboard sessions, etc. etc. But they're really, actually not any better than if you just compared them to a standard consensus big board. Or barely better, perhaps.

Evaluating human beings, even in one very specific area, is very complicated it turns out! Who would've thought.

And agreed, the whole conclusion of that paper is trade down as often as you can, especially if it's a small trade down but accumulates an extra pick. And even more especially if you can get future picks, which are consistently undervalued.

Volume will result in quality eventually, through both skill and luck. Or maybe it won't, because it's so random that a string of bad luck could ruin every single pick you got for trading down.

Be the Sam Presti of the NFL.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Milton: the strongest qb

Strongest throwing arm since Kelsey Plum

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
Kind of funny that a couple of weeks ago someone posted a very compelling article concluding that trading up is usually dumb, trading down is almost always the right play, because people overvalue their ability to predict what prospect is going to be good.

And now almost everyone ITT is suggesting that their team needs to trade up to get that can’t miss prospect they have fallen in love with. It’s like watching a psychology study play out in real time.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
JJ is simultaneously overrated and underrated.

He's overrated by some because 1) Michigan won the natty (intangibles!!!!!), 2) he showed really well at the combine (measureables!!!!), and 3) although Harbaugh didn't want Michigan to throw very much, JJ occasionally ripped off a highlight pass between defenders that required velocity, timing, and perfect accuracy. He has one throw The play that

He's underrated by some because 1) he threw half as much as the other guys, 2) he totally gagged in the National Semi against TCU two years ago, and 3) he looks like he is 14 years old, with a ridiculous pompadour haircut and a big stupid grin.

In reality, his advanced stats are pretty good, he's pretty cool under pressure, he's got a pretty good arm, he's bigger than he looks, and he could be good or he could suck. Because of the way Harbaugh used him, he's more of an enigma than most QB prospects.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Dexo posted:

It's not bullshit, but it's misleading.

He like Mac Jones and other college QBs have absurdly high "efficiency" deep and intermediate because he just never tries to loving throw it if it's not WAO.

I think he took like probably close to 40-45% less deep/intermediate shots than everyone but JJ McCarthy.

McCarthy was taking more of those shots on third and long. Michigan ran on first and second down so much and they were good at grinding it out, but they were predictable and sometimes they got stuffed. So McCarthy wasn't throwing much, but when he did it was third and long and everyone in the stadium knew it was going to be a pass and he had to throw it even it the receiver was not wide open. McCarthy actually had plenty of attempts on third and long. (McCarthy had 49, Penix had 60, Maye 53, Nix 46, Caleb 44, and Daniels only 29). What he didn't have was a normal number of attempts on first down, or on second and short.

McCarthy's success converting third and long was by far the best in this class. 55% converted to a first down. Nobody else was above 38%. McCarthy also had by far the highest QB rating on third and long, and by far the highest percentage of passes completed while scrambling. This was why the analytics guys started getting hot for him despite the low usage numbers.

I don't know what McCarthy is, but probably isn't Mac Jones 2.0. Nix, on the other hand....

predicto fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Apr 26, 2024

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
Suamataia has everything you want in an OT except being good at blocking

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predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Mega64 posted:

Gonna be interesting seeing him go against Ted Kennedy's BFF Aaron Rodgers.

Wash your mouth out with soap


I knew Ted Kennedy and you, RFK Jr., are no Ted Kennedy

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