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Black Lighter posted:What's crazy is that there's still a chance he could fall in the draft once reporters and GMs start asking questions about what his dad's been up to since retiring Goes undrafted when every single front office goes mysteriously missing
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Nov 19, 2023 19:43
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Amy Pole Her posted:is center class any good? Seems up in the air if Miami sticks with Williams T Center or shifts him back to guard The only names I've seen thrown around as possible starters/day 2 guys are Zach Frazier from WVU and Sedrick Van Pran from Georgia. There are some other OL guys who could end up kicking inside to center (Graham Barton is one dude Dane Brugler shouted out in his recent top 50), but as far as pure Cs go this class isn't super strong or deep
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Nov 21, 2023 07:50
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I appreciate people being vigilant about trying to root out all forms of bias, but I think maybe we've lost the plot a little bit if we're theorizing that a professional athlete was discriminated against for being the prototypical height for his position, and also for being black (when the player picked over him was also black)
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Dec 5, 2023 22:31
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Also CJ Stroud is a vanilla personality mondo-Christian so he's not really giving off Bad Boy vibes
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Dec 5, 2023 22:33
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MikeCrotch posted:The thing about CJ Stroud was essentially whether you believed OSU v Georgia Stroud was the real guy or if that was just a fluke My whole thing with that game was that Stroud was already a very, very good QB prospect based on the entire body of his work in college to that point...and then in the biggest game of his career, against an elite defense, he had a performance that showed he was capable of performing at an even higher level, in a way that almost explicitly addressed most of the biggest question marks about him as a prospect. During a pre-draft process where people were talking themselves into Anthony Richardson as a possible #1 guy because of his ceiling, I was baffled that people didn't see more significance in Stroud tangibly showing that he could play incredibly well while facing significant pressure and creating out of sequence. He was a high floor, high ceiling guy!
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Dec 9, 2023 09:52
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Think he's generally seen as a Day 2 guy who could possibly slip a lil further than that
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Dec 13, 2023 01:33
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Thinking about wide receivers I was watching/reading some Brian Thomas Jr. stuff the other day and I came away convinced that most years I would develop a smug hipster opinion that he's going to turn out to be the best WR in his class, but this year's draft class has at least three dudes at the top who are completely immune to even the strongest contrarianism Its a good group imo
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Dec 14, 2023 00:49
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There's a good chance it wouldn't be a reach to take OT3 in the 8-10 range. Seen various draft guys who seem super high on Latham, Fuaga and Mims in particular
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Dec 23, 2023 06:00
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I would say he started holding the ball too long because he could get away with it and it frequently led to him producing home-run plays out of sequence. He continued to do it this season despite diminishing returns/more negative plays. Is that because a lot of the USC team around him stunk and he felt compelled to play heroball, or is it because he doesn't know any other way to play? If you could answer that question definitively you would be a very valuable NFL scout
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Dec 27, 2023 07:50
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From what I've read no consensus top EDGE at the moment, with Latu/Turner generally seen as the top guys and Verse + Chop Robinson also in the conversation. Latu has a claim to the best production and technique, but he might have a medical red flag (a neck injury forced him to retire at Washington in 2021 before UCLA cleared him a year later) and he isn't an athletic freak Turner has great traits and production, but I kind of vibe that scouts have a "very good, not necessarily elite" read on him that's keeping him from being the consensus top guy and a surefire top 10 pick Verse was the presumed top guy coming into the year, but he wasn't putting up any numbers for the first part of the year so he slid down the rankings as a result. He came on strong at the end of the year, plus I've read people say that his tape this season is better than his numbers would have you think, so between that and his strength/athleticism I wouldn't be surprised if he bubbled back up during the pre-draft process Chop Robinson is probably the bottom of this group because he hasn't been a consistent producer, but he's shown elite flashes and is another freak athlete who might have the best speed/bend of the class
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Dec 27, 2023 09:38
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Bismack Billabongo posted:Personally I want no part of Bowers, are Odunze or Nabers notably better at getting open fast? Nabers is the better get open/YAC guy; Odunze isn't bad at generating separation necessarily but contested catch stuff is a bigger part of his game
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Dec 27, 2023 18:11
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Still a lot of time for movement. Even once you get past the combine there are plenty of recent examples of the media's read on a prospect being significantly out of whack with what the actual NFL teams think (Levis, Willis, etc.)
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Dec 28, 2023 20:29
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The team around Maye was also not anywhere close to good enough to give him consistently clean pockets/open receivers so it's not like there's not ample tape of him under pressure
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Dec 28, 2023 22:55
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Penix's red flags aren't just injury stuff; he's struggled against pressure and his accuracy looked way shakier in the back half of the season than it did the first half (although he's bounced back in a big way in the Pac 12 championship game and the semifinal, obviously). This semifinal performance is honestly kind of like a milder version of Stroud vs. Georgia where he's not just excelling, but he's doing stuff that flies in the face of some of the biggest criticisms/question marks surrounding him. A potential Michigan matchup would likely give him another opportunity to show he can perform in the face of pressure too
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Jan 2, 2024 05:35
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Please, my father is Michael Penis. You can just call me Michael Penis, Jr.
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Jan 2, 2024 05:38
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xbilkis posted:Penix's red flags aren't just injury stuff; he's struggled against pressure and his accuracy looked way shakier in the back half of the season than it did the first half drat it turns out he didn't just fix all his problems in time for the playoff
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Jan 9, 2024 05:00
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I feel like JJ should just stay in school at this point if he doesn't care too much about Going Out On Top. Test your luck in a (probably) weaker class, see if you can get some shine from playing in a new system presuming Michigan makes a coaching change. Can't imagine anyone talking themselves into him as more than a Day 2 developmental guy at this point
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Jan 9, 2024 05:37
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Caleb officially in. Are there any other prospects of note who haven't declared one way or another yet? https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1746978532503244820
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Jan 15, 2024 20:34
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I think Beck is maybe the most sneaky intriguing 2025 guy. Easy to lump him with every other Good Enough QB on a loaded natty contender but he was making a few impressive throws every Georgia game I saw. Him and McConkey both are "No I swear they're really NFL good" types
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Jan 17, 2024 01:34
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Nosre posted:Has drafting a TE in the top 10 literally ever worked out? Vernon Davis maybe? The last two (Hock and Pitts) are good but not worth the spot imo The best TE drafted in the top 10 in the 21st century is probably Vernon Davis, yeah. He made second-team All Pro once. Even if you expand it to the entire first round, there's a shockingly low correlation between "TEs drafted highly" and "TEs who turn out to be elite in the NFL." Of the 25 first-round TEs since 2000, they've got a grand total of seven All Pro appearances (two first tam, five second team). 5/7 of those appearances are from guys who were drafted 24th or later. Meanwhile the true superstars at the position have basically exclusively been picked in the second round or later. That's why I'd have a really hard time pulling the trigger on Bowers in the top 10, even though I really like him as a prospect. It's just super clear that there is a systemic inability to properly assess how TEs will transfer from the NCAA to the NFL, and I don't know how you could have the hubris to look at that data and say "OK, but this time we're going to be right" xbilkis fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Jan 17, 2024 |
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Jan 17, 2024 18:31
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When you're 0/25 on getting the kind of elite talent you envision out of a top 10 pick at TE, I think it's a pretty decent sample size
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Jan 17, 2024 18:34
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Chop is so good when he's on but from what I gather he was on like 15-20% of the time I actually really like what I saw out of Penn State's other DE Adisa Isaac; I think I'd probably rather grab him on Day 2 than risk a top 15 pick on one of the EDGE guys in this class
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Jan 25, 2024 01:07
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At some point during the predraft process someone better put together a supercut of all the cartoon hits Daniels took over the past couple of years https://twitter.com/TheoAshNFL/status/1749881195213865428
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Jan 25, 2024 04:21
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That's a Chicago Bear right there (someone please give us a second round pick)
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Jan 29, 2024 23:33
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I get that there are great OT prospects in this draft class but I find it odd that Olu has slipped so much. Jordan Reid said he polled a handful of scouts about who the best prospect was at the Senior Bowl and they all said Tyler Guyton. No Alt/Olu there but it's definitely interesting that he was the consensus pick going in over Fuaga at OT (and the consensus top prospect over Latu and everyone else). Seems like the order the OTs come off the board could still be super fluid
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Jan 31, 2024 01:00
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This isn't a novel thought or anything but I assume having a great iOL prospect fall into your lap in the second or third round is going to become an increasingly rare phenomenon as teams shed the old-school perception of G/C as "low value" positions. It's a weakness for so many teams, DTs are getting better and better at pass rushing and defenses are getting more creative about lining up elite DEs on the interior sometimes
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Feb 2, 2024 22:33
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Do you do this as a gimmick I don't understand or are you genuinely unable to make a distinction between the relative values NFL teams place on each position because sometimes a RB or a G gets drafted in the top 10
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Feb 2, 2024 23:00
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https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1756483217689804992 Please go in the top 10
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Feb 11, 2024 04:40
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JJ has McCarthy written all over him, it's true. Might as well put it on the back of his jersey
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Feb 11, 2024 05:06
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Has Tee Higgins ever made a mistake in his life? If so I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he would have been put to good use playing in Green Bay with late-career Aaron Rodgers
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Feb 15, 2024 21:04
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I think we're going to get at least a week of McCarthy to the Patriots buzz/speculation at some point during this draft cycle
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Feb 20, 2024 18:40
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Generally speaking, I agree positional value stuff shouldn't be a hard-and-fast rule — if you get a great player at any position with basically any pick, it's at least a good return on your investment, even if it's less likely to be the optimal return on your investment if it's not a "premium position." If you're looking at an RB/IOL/TE/LB/S with a round 1 grade versus a WR/EDGE with a day 2 grade, yeah, sure, go ahead and grab the prospect you're higher on. But it's insane to act like "positional value" is a made-up concept, or that it shouldn't be used at all to inform your decision making when there is plenty of data to back up the notion that drafting a QB/WR/DE/OT in the top 10 has historically produced a better return (with significantly higher upside) than drafting a TE or RB. Obviously every class is different and each individual pick has the potential to defy the larger trend, but there's such a high level of uncertainty with any draft pick that it's almost hubristic to think you can accurately identify the outlier-level TE/RB/G prospects who end up legitimately being worth a top 10 pick. Every once in a while there's a Quenton Nelson type who is such a generational talent that basically everyone agrees that you can basically fully ignore the fact that he plays a "non-premium position," but if you are regularly ignoring positional value over the course of several drafts then you are probably going to have worse results than a team who is equally good at scouting and does factor positional value into their picks
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Feb 21, 2024 00:10
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Although I do still maintain that "No TEs in the top 10" is the one hard-and-fast rule I would adhere to if I was a GM. I just need one example of it paying off for a team this century before I'm personally willing to roll the dice on it
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Feb 21, 2024 00:15
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Doltos posted:It is a made-up concept. It was specifically made up for the draft. There's nothing in any football playbook anywhere, hopefully, that says some positions don't matter as others. It's a complete rejection of the idea of positions in general. 
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Feb 21, 2024 01:02
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Also here's a quote from an actual NFL coach saying his actual NFL GM wouldn't draft a specific position with a top 10 pick https://twitter.com/JeffsBearsTakes/status/1587870803030425603
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Feb 21, 2024 01:08
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a neat cape posted:Yeah LBs are more valuable than OL. The LB franchise tag figure is based on the salary of the highest paid players at the position, who are all edge rushers
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Feb 21, 2024 01:13
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Metapod posted:All 4 teams in the conference championship round had a really good hb and tightend. Probably should value those positions more lol I think there's a pretty easy argument to make that NFL teams generally speaking should place a greater value on high-end talent at "non premium positions", yeah. I'm posting at people who are acting like the basic concept of positional value is a thing online nerds made up though
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Feb 21, 2024 01:16
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Gibbs is basically a shorthand for everything you need to know about the nuances of positional value + Good pick despite being a RB taken in the top 15 + Arguably had a better rookie season than the more highly touted RB drafted ahead of him because his team had a better plan for how to use him than the Falcons did for Bijan (and also because the Lions had fewer holes to fill, which meant they were better positioned to make a "luxury pick") (tl;dr: situation matters) + Pretty good chance that he wasn't the best possible pick for the Lions long-term because of positional value reasons (if Christian Gonzalez is as good as he looked in his first few games, you'd probably rather have a legit CB1 than a very good timeshare RB) + Just because it worked out for the Lions once doesn't mean it was smart for them to ignore positional value again when they used a first rounder on Jack Campbell
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Feb 21, 2024 02:10
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Getting a pre-combine longshot prediction on the record: Chargers end up taking Taliese Fuaga at 5
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Feb 21, 2024 02:16
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Unless someone really loves McCarthy I dunno that you can bank on "a haul" to move down from 5 with those guys off the board. Nabers and Alt and Bowers are nice prospects, but they're not necessarily the kind of prospects who get traded for a big package of picks, especially when there's a deep pool of pass catchers and tackles who will be available in the first round
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Feb 23, 2024 04:43
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