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Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I think there's an assload of quality defensive linemen out there. Offensive linemen are far more rare.

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Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Sometimes you can puff your chest. Sometimes you rank Zach Wilson over Trevor Lawrence.

https://twitter.com/ustadium/status/1729575145000362203?s=46&t=DcBXErlGIUJUj8quAgYfkQ

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

It was very very clear and understandable that after the Ruggs situation, the Raiders and probably a few other teams were in no position to take Carter given the drag racing leading to the deaths of 2 people thing.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Connor Rogers is pretty respectable and his latest bb is pretty interesting. Caleb #3 overall. Fashanu as OT1. Nabers over Maye.

code:
1	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Ohio State
2	Olu Fashanu		OT	Penn State
3	Caleb Williams		QB	USC
4	Malik Nabers		WR	LSU
5	Drake Maye		QB	North Carolina
6	Joe Alt			OT	Notre Dame
7	Brock Bowers		TE	Georgia
8	Laiatu Latu		EDGE	UCLA
9	Jer’Zhan Newton		DL	Illinois
10	Jared Verse		EDGE	Florida State
https://www.nbcsports.com/college-f...pdated-rankings

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I can’t imagine a scenario where the Jets are picking top 5 and not taking OT1/2.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

A significant number of pro athletes wore hologram bracelets to improve their balance and energy flows. Sports people are very superstitious.

Patrick Mahomes wears the same underwear every game.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Probably for the best. Curious if this means Arch is transferring.
https://twitter.com/QuinnEwers/status/1745491712326127695?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

The Puppy Bowl posted:

So the idea is that Williams may go to the supplemental draft to avoid the Bears in favor of the Panthers?

That's a theory.

It’s a bad one. You have to somehow lose college eligibility to be in the supplementary draft. He has plenty.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

wandler20 posted:

It's exactly the same. The team just forfeits that draft pick the following year. So if you take a player in the first round you lose your first rounder the following year.

Isn’t pay slotting equivalent to the average of the round they’re taken in? He’d still lose money over going #1 overall.

Also he’s not ineligible to continue playing in college so it’s all moot.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

:toot:

https://twitter.com/mzenitz/status/1747301846178312496?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Daniel Jeremiah's first mock. 3 QBs followed by 3 WRs.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1748418124154863762?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Omnikin posted:

Yeah I 100% defer to y'all on the listings. I'm just happy it's playing out like this. And excited for senior bowl/combine
Jets love drafting Senior Bowl guys and Ulbrich is the head coach of one of the teams. I imagine they’ll focus a lot of their scouting there.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005


That’s not really true. There were more draftniks who thought Josh was QB1 than Baker leading up to it. Most thought Darnold.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I hope Sam Darnold gets a ring before any of them.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Everyone loves a Kiper Mock, especially Daltos.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/dr...2-picks-qb-fits

quote:

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC


Are the Bears really going to pass up the chance to take the top quarterback in back-to-back draft classes? I just don't see it. Last year, of course, they got a huge haul from Carolina for trading down, with this pick included in the deal. This year they have to decide whether to keep Justin Fields or trade down again, for a bounty that likely will be even bigger. Here are the two biggest reasons why I'd keep the pick if I were running the Chicago front office:

Williams is a better prospect than Fields. We've now seen three NFL seasons from Fields, and he hasn't put everything together on a consistent basis. There are too many unknowns for a guy with 38 career starts. He has completed just 60.2% of his passes while throwing 40 touchdown passes with 30 interceptions and has averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt in his career. Williams, my top-ranked prospect, is ahead of Fields as a passer -- the USC product has the skill set and instincts to be a top-tier quarterback at the next level.

Taking Williams resets the Bears' quarterback clock, which matters in an age when having a quarterback on a rookie contract means teams can build a better roster around them. If they keep Fields, they'd have to decide on his fifth-year option this spring and then extend his contract within the next year. Are they ready to do that? With a rookie, they'd get four years at a much less expensive cap number before having to pay up.

Now, Chicago doesn't have ideal leverage to trade Fields, but it only takes two suitors to create a market. Remember that when the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen one year after drafting him at No. 10 overall, they got a second-round pick from the Dolphins. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears get a first-rounder in return for Fields.


2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU


The Commanders have a much more straightforward decision than the Bears. Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions in 2023, is not the guy. They have to take a quarterback in a draft that has a clear top tier of three signal-callers: Williams, Daniels and Drake Maye (North Carolina). There's a drop-off in the class after that. With Washington getting an opportunity to take the No. 2 quarterback here, why did I go with Daniels?

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner improved so much in 2023, throwing 40 touchdown passes to just four interceptions while going up against a tough SEC schedule. In December, I went deep on his strengths, weaknesses and future, so you can see my full thoughts on his game there. The bottom line is it's tight between Daniels and Maye on my board, but Daniels would be an tremendous fit for a Washington roster that has some young playmakers on offense. Maye's inconsistency at the end of the season is enough for me to put Daniels at No. 2. The reality, though, is the Commanders just hired their new general manager and still don't have a coach, so there's a lot to figure out about which direction they go.


3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina


It's a total makeover in New England, which will have a new coach and front office structure for the first time since Bill Belichick joined the organization in 2000. New coach Jerod Mayo, whose background is on defense, inherits a total mess on offense. The Patriots ranked second to last in the league in offensive points per game (12.9) and their offensive line ranked last in pass block win rate (43.5%). Linemen Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu and tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are among the team's free agents. What better way to start a new era -- and possible offensive rebuild -- than to take an elite quarterback at the top of the draft?

Maye had some ups and downs in 2023, but he's an outstanding deep-ball thrower in a 6-foot-4 frame. He takes care of the football and has some dual-threat ability. There's a ton to like in his potential. And while the Bears might struggle with the decision to move on from their first-round quarterback picked in the 2021 draft, the Patriots shouldn't agonize much. Mac Jones has regressed enough to make that an easy call this offseason. Quarterback is by far New England's biggest need.


4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State


OK, finally, I can discuss a position other than quarterback. Kyler Murray played well enough after returning from his knee injury to keep the job in Arizona. The plucky Cardinals won four games and showed some improvement throughout the season, but they still finished 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2), 31st in points allowed per game (26.8) on defense and 29th in pass yards per attempt (6.2) on offense. In short, they have big needs on both sides of the ball.

Harrison is one of the best receiver prospects of the past decade, a 6-foot-4 speedster who can run every route and break tackles after the catch. In Arizona, where Marquise Brown is a free agent, he could step into the No. 1 role as a rookie. He has all the tools to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024. The Cardinals also own the Texans' first-rounder in this draft, thanks to last year's trade during Round 1, and they could look to the defense or offensive line there.


5. Los Angeles Chargers
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia


Edge rusher? Cornerback? Offensive line? Wide receiver (again)? The Chargers have big questions and still haven't hired a new general manager or coach. This prediction is a shot in the dark until they figure out who's making the decisions. While I could see any of those positions being addressed here, I'm going with a fit I really like based on a different potential need.

Gerald Everett caught 51 passes in 2023, but he averaged just 8.1 yards per reception. L.A. really has to add a playmaker at the tight end position. With Everett hitting free agency, there's a hole for Bowers, who is spectacular after the catch, to fill. He had 26 touchdown catches over three college seasons, showing a stellar ability to stretch the seams. Justin Herbert hasn't had a pass-catcher like Bowers since he entered the league in 2020.


6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU


The Giants got just six games out of quarterback Daniel Jones on the way to a lost season that showed some cracks in the foundation. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale resigned after the season, and the offense under coordinator Mike Kafka struggled with Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito under center. New York's quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 85 times, the most in the league, and the offense ranked 30th in yards per play (4.5). The Giants used top-10 picks on offensive linemen in 2020 (Andrew Thomas) and 2022 (Evan Neal), but I absolutely could see them doing it again, as tackles Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and Olu Fashanu (Penn State) are still available in this scenario.

Still, I keep coming back to getting Jones more help, as he has never played with a true No. 1 wide receiver. Nabers could be that. He's coming off an 89-catch, 1,569-yard season catching passes from Jayden Daniels, and he has a rare combination of speed and route-running ability. He led the FBS with 17 catches of 30-plus yards. The Giants had just 15 total 30-plus yard receptions last season, five of which were from rookie third-rounder Jalin Hyatt.


7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame


The Titans are another team coming off a lost season, and they moved on from Mike Vrabel in the aftermath. They hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as his replacement. Rookie second-round pick Will Levis showed enough promise to get a chance to start at quarterback in 2024, but there are big holes all along the roster, including on a defense that ranked last in the league in interceptions (6).

I keep staring at the Titans' depth chart and wondering whether they should go back to the O-line, though. They took Peter Skoronski at No. 11 a year ago and played him mostly at guard, where he was just OK. Why not solidify the left tackle spot with the top two tackles in this class on the board? Alt was the definition of a stalwart on the left side of Notre Dame's line, where he started 33 games. He gave up just two sacks over the past two seasons. Tennessee ranked 31st in the rate of sacks per dropback (11.1%) in 2023, so putting Levis in a better position to succeed should be a priority.


8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama


Here we go, another team in the top 10 that hasn't yet hired its new coach. The good thing about this projection: I don't have another quarterback with a top-10 grade, so I'm not going to force one to Atlanta. I wonder if it might be a trade suitor for Justin Fields or instead look to the free agent market for Kirk Cousins or cut candidate Russell Wilson. (If the Falcons hire Jim Harbaugh, I reserve my right to predict Michigan signal-caller J.J. McCarthy to join his former coach.)

Let's move to the other side of the ball, where the Falcons ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and 29th in takeaways (16). Veterans Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree led the team with 6.5 sacks apiece. This is a front seven that needs an injection of youth. With Turner, they'd get the best edge defender in this class, a 242-pound outside linebacker who had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons. He ranked eighth in the FBS with a 16.7% pressure rate in 2023.


9. Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington


Chicago likely will take a hard look at the edge rushers in this class to try to find a starter to play on the other side of Montez Sweat, who finished the season with 12.5 total sacks (six for Chicago) after being acquired from Washington. Turner could have been a fit, and I also thought about Laiatu Latu (UCLA), who is the best pure pass-rusher in this class. But with the Bears' second top-10 pick, I want to slot in a playmaker for the new quarterback I gave them at No. 1.

Odunze had 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Huskies in 2023. He played out wide and inside -- 30 of his catches came from lining up in the slot -- and ran every route in the receiving tree. This would be tremendous value for Odunze, who is No. 5 overall on my board. He could be the 1B to DJ Moore, who had a great first season in Chicago. And with Williams throwing them the ball, the Bears' offense would be extremely dynamic.


10. New York Jets
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn Stat
e

One year after the Jets got jumped by the Steelers in Round 1 and lost out on Broderick Jones, here's a chance for New York to get its left tackle of the present and future. It's the biggest void on the offense, especially with Mekhi Becton hitting free agency. As quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes his return to the lineup, he'd be thrilled to have Fashanu protecting his blind side.

At 6-foot-6, 319 pounds, Fashanu has the physical traits and footwork of an elite lineman. He could have been a first-rounder in last year's draft if he had entered. He allowed one sack in 21 career starts for the Nittany Lions. He still hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling.


11. Minnesota Vikings
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson


In my final mock ahead of the 2023 draft, I projected the Vikings taking a cornerback. Instead, they went with wide receiver Jordan Addison, who had a fantastic rookie season, catching 10 touchdown passes. That need in the secondary still exists. Minnesota ranked 28th in passing yards allowed to receivers last season (3,019), and 2022 second-rounder Andrew Booth Jr. hasn't quite figured things out. Let's go back to Clemson -- Booth's former school -- with the selection of Wiggins here. Wiggins was a lockdown defender in 2023, allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage.

Could the Vikings take a quarterback? For sure. Kirk Cousins is a free agent, and I don't think rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall will be the guy long-term. At this point, though, the most likely option might be running it back with Cousins, so adding a starter on defense makes more sense. This obviously could change as we learn more about general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's plans.


12. Denver Broncos
Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA


I love Latu's ability to bend the edge and get after quarterbacks. He's a toolsy pass-rusher who has a variety of moves and always has a plan of attack. He ranked second in the FBS in total pressures (57) and pressure rate (20.4%) this past season, and he ranked first in the same categories in 2022 (55 pressures, 19.1% pressure rate). And did I mention he had 23.5 sacks in that time frame? Those are two seasons of phenomenal production. The questions with Latu will come at the NFL combine in a few weeks, as he medically retired from football because of a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. He was cleared to play for the Bruins, but what will his medical checkups show?

For Denver, adding Latu would be a boost to a pass rush that was just OK last season. The Broncos tied for 21st with 42 sacks, but overall they ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (5.8) and 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.0). Latu has the potential to become a 10-sacks-per-season defender.


13. Las Vegas Raiders
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama


This was another spot in which I thought about slotting in the fourth quarterback in this class, as the Raiders are likely to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell struggled after some early flashes. Ultimately, this might be Las Vegas' best chance to get a true No. 1 cover corner, though, as Arnold took his game to another level in 2023.

He picked off five passes and had 12 total breakups as quarterbacks completed just 37.9% of their passes when he was the nearest defender in coverage. He can shut down one side of the field for a defense that improved down the stretch but still has a ways to go to compete in a tough AFC West.


14. New Orleans Saints
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU


Derek Carr had an up-and-down debut season in New Orleans, and his sizable contract almost certainly means he'll be back as the starter in 2024. But what do we know about the playmakers around him? Chris Olave is a star who has put up back-to-back seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. After that? There are big questions. Michael Thomas likely will move on this offseason, while Alvin Kamara has regressed in recent years. And while Rashid Shaheed showed he can be a useful complementary receiver, Carr could use another asset in the receiving game to try to boost this offense.

Thomas, the third of the LSU offensive players off the board in this projection, led the FBS with 17 touchdown catches last season while averaging 17.3 yards per reception. He had just three drops on 93 targets. He can take the top off defenses and be a stellar No. 2 option as a rookie. Plus, the born-and-raised Louisiana kid wouldn't have to leave the state.


15. Indianapolis Colts
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State


One of the top edge rushers could be in play here for the Colts, but I'm leaning toward a like-for-like replacement, as Michael Pittman Jr. could get a megadeal in free agency and leave the team. If that happens, there will be a massive need for a big, physical pass-catcher, which describes Coleman's game.

At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Coleman can box out cornerbacks and go up and get deep balls. He has fantastic body control when the ball is in the air. He had 11 touchdowns after transferring to Florida State from Michigan State. Coleman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce would form an excellent receiving corps for young quarterback Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis.


16. Seattle Seahawks
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan


OK, here's a spot for the next quarterback. While I don't have a first-round grade on McCarthy right now -- a lot can change before Round 1 on April 25 -- he does have first-round arm talent, along with the ability to beat defenses with his legs. He's the type of quarterback teams will take a shot at in the middle of the first round, especially when you consider he just turned 21 a few days ago. He rarely turns the ball over -- he threw 44 touchdown passes and had nine picks over the past two seasons -- and can make every throw. McCarthy just wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm for the Wolverines, because they so often dominated at the line of scrimmage. As of now, I'm betting on a team seeing his upside and trying to take him somewhere in the teens.

For Seattle, the contract Geno Smith signed last March made it clear the team could get out after one season. Smith had a decent season (20 TD passes, 9 INTs), but will he really be here long term? I could see the Seahawks severing ties and starting fresh for whomever the new coach ends up being.


17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa


The Jaguars' collapse to end the season -- they lost five of their final six games and missed the playoffs -- exposed some serious roster issues, and they could have more holes to plug this offseason. That's because top edge rusher Josh Allen and No. 2 wideout Calvin Ridley are free agents, and both could get enticing offers if they hit the open market in March. Ridley is probably more likely to leave, but I just projected five receivers in the top 15 picks, which means Jacksonville might not like the pass-catchers left on the board. That's why I'm pivoting to a defense that struggled down the stretch.

DeJean, who was having an All-America season before he broke his leg in November, allowed just 3.5 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage this past season. He had seven interceptions from 2022-23, including three pick-sixes. He could play in the slot or outside, making him a nice complementary corner with Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell.


18. Cincinnati Bengals
JC Latham, OT, Alabama


We could see a run on offensive linemen starting around here -- this is a really talented tackle class. I have seven tackles ranked among my top 25 overall prospects. Latham started 27 games at right tackle for the Crimson Tide over the past two seasons. He can maul defenders in the run game, but he's also light on his feet as a pass protector. With Jonah Williams headed to free agency, Latham could slot in on the right side and be an instant starter. I could also see the Bengals look toward the defensive tackle class, with Jer'Zhan Newton (Illinois) and T'Vondre Sweat (Texas) still available.


19. Los Angeles Rams
Jared Verse, DE, Florida State


The Rams got outstanding play from two rookie defensive linemen in edge rusher Byron Young (8 sacks) and tackle Kobie Turner (9 sacks), but they're relatively thin along the defensive line. Can they find another impact edge rusher, this time in Round 1, to help a defense that finished 30th in takeaways (15)?

Verse was inconsistent in his two seasons at Florida State, but there's no doubting his talent and 6-foot-4, 253-pound frame. He put up 18 sacks and 81 pressures from 2022-23, with 50 of those pressures coming last season. That's the pass-rush improvement I hoped to see before the season. His next step is creating more turnovers, as he had just one forced fumble for the Seminoles.


20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia


Sure, the Steelers hit on cornerback Joey Porter Jr. with the top pick of Round 2 a year ago, but this is a defense that saw 33-year-old corner Patrick Peterson play more than 1,000 snaps, so there's room for an injection of youth at the position. Lassiter emerged as a lockdown corner for the Bulldogs in 2023, though he had just one career interception, which came all the way back in 2021. Still, he allowed a total of nine receptions for 91 yards as the nearest defender in coverage, and none of those passes went for scores. He could form an elite duo with Porter.


21. Miami Dolphins
Troy Fautanu, G, Washington


The Dolphins could lose two starting offensive linemen in free agency, as center Connor Williams and right guard Robert Hunt are scheduled to hit the market in March. They also likely will have limited cap space, particularly with the potential of Tua Tagovailoa getting a big extension. Why not add an O-line replacement here? There's room to improve, as Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate (49.2%).

Fautanu started 31 career games for the Huskies, spending most of his time at left tackle. I see his future at guard, however, as his 6-foot-4, 317-pound frame and playing style fit on the interior. He allowed two career sacks on nearly 1,250 pass-blocking snaps. It wouldn't shock me if a team drafted Fautanu to play tackle, but I see All-Pro upside for him at guard.


22. Philadelphia Eagles
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State


The Eagles were a disaster at the end of the season, and they have several roster questions to answer this offseason (with a long list of pending free agents). On defense, they have needs at cornerback and safety, and their pass rush was putrid down the stretch. On offense, their line is getting older -- right tackle Lane Johnson turns 34 in May -- and they'll have to replace star center Jason Kelce. Taking Fuaga is a way to add a top-tier talent and figure out the rest later.

Cam Jurgens, a second-rounder in 2022, probably would replace Kelce, which means the right guard spot would open up. Fuaga started 25 games at right tackle for the Beavers, but he could play inside as a rookie before ultimately replacing Johnson. He is a dominant run-blocker with powerful hands and strong lower body.


23. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois


The Texans overachieved and won a playoff game on the back of a stellar rookie class, but they have work to do this offseason. They have cap space to make moves but also have several free agents, including top edge rusher Jonathan Greenard (12.5), tight end Dalton Schultz (59 catches) and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (6 sacks). While I can see Houston pursuing multiple positions with this pick, Newton would both fill a void and be a high-upside selection.

Newton is the best interior pass-rusher in this class; he had 16.5 sacks in three seasons for the Fighting Illini. He improved his pressure rate in every season, showing off an impressive combination of strength and natural talent. He also has versatility, as three of his sacks were from when he lined up as the nose tackle. He could slot into Rankins' spot in the lineup.


24. Dallas Cowboys
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona


The NFL's other franchise in Texas had the opposite rookie class as the Texans, as the Cowboys got very little from their first-year players (unless you include first-team All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey, who played in the USFL). And while they've been known for their tremendous offensive line play for years, both left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin are 33, with Smith now out of contract. Sure, they appear to have hit on 2022 first-rounder Tyler Smith, who has excelled at left guard, but they have to add more talent to their line.

Morgan is one of my favorite pass protectors in this class. I love the way he moves his feet and handles twists and stunts. He started 35 games at left tackle in college, which would make him a perfect fit to replace Tyron Smith.


25. Green Bay Packers
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU


As I mentioned earlier, this is a talented tackle class, and so if Green Bay has a chance to get its blindside protector of the future, it should take it. David Bakhtiari has played just 25 games over the past four seasons because of knee issues, including one in 2023. The Packers can't rely on him coming back.

The 6-foot-6 Suamataia started 23 games for the Cougars over the past two seasons, 12 at right tackle and 11 at left tackle. I love the potential he showed this past season when he gave up three sacks and only eight total pressures. He is a mountain of a man who can move to the second level and take on linebackers in the run game.


26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

Tampa Bay is another franchise with big looming decisions in free agency, as quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. are among the key contributors on track to hit the market. That makes a projection this early really tough. I keep looking at the Bucs' pass rush, though, and wondering if they could try to upgrade, particularly since rookie Yaya Diaby led them in sacks (7.5).

I wrote before the season that Robinson had the potential to break out, but he never quite put it all together, following up a 5.5-sack season in 2022 with four in 2023. His 18% pressure rate was really solid, but it didn't translate into production. Still, I expect Robinson to test well at the combine, and we know NFL teams fall in love with edge rushers who have high-upside traits. Robinson is still a bit raw, but he has tools with which to work.


27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma


We're finally back to Arizona, which almost certainly thought this pick would be much higher when it made the trade with Houston last April. I gave the Cardinals a WR1 at No. 4 overall, and this pick could be a way to solidify their bookends, as they drafted Paris Johnson Jr. at No. 6 a year ago. Johnson spent his rookie season on the right side, but he's suited to play left tackle, as that's where he played his final season at Ohio State. Guyton, however, spent almost all of his time at right tackle for the Sooners; he allowed zero sacks in 2023.

As I wrote in my scouting report on Guyton, NFL teams will covet his physical tools, even though he started just 15 games in college. I could also see the Cardinals take a cornerback here, with Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri) the best available in my rankings.


28. Buffalo Bills
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas


I made a late change with this pick after I watched Josh Allen average 4.8 yards per attempt in the home loss to the Chiefs. His receivers struggled to get open and didn't make enough plays after the catch once they did. Stefon Diggs hasn't had a 100-yard game since mid-October, and Gabe Davis is now a free agent. General manager Brandon Beane can find a useful pass-catcher here.

The 6-foot-4 Mitchell broke out after transferring from Georgia, catching 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 scores for the Longhorns in 2023. He thrived on crossing routes, using his size and quickness to get separation from defenders. He has great hands. The position I almost went with? Nose tackle, because T'Vondre Sweat (Texas) could be a great fit in the middle of the Buffalo defense.

Just a reminder: The final four picks in Round 1 are based on projections from ESPN's Football Power Index.


29. Kansas City Chiefs
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon


Did you expect me to go with another position? Kansas City's receivers really struggled this season, outside of rookie second-rounder Rashee Rice, who might already be their top wideout. Chiefs pass-catchers dropped 38 passes during the regular season, ranking last in the league. That's why I'm giving them a talented playmaker with this pick.

Franklin averaged 17.1 yards per catch in 2023 and had 23 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons. He is a big, 6-foot-3 target with deceptive speed who can break tackles after the catch. This isn't the first time I've projected Kansas City to land a receiver in Round 1 -- I gave them Zay Flowers in my final 2023 mock -- but the hole is too large to not fill here. By the way, this makes seven wideouts in Round 1, which would tie the record for most in a single draft (2004).


30. Detroit Lions
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo


Detroit landed a second-round steal last year in safety/slot corner Brian Branch, who had three interceptions in an excellent rookie season. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to solve this defense's issues defending the pass. The Lions ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.8) and 30th in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,081). Simply put, they have to get better at corner.

Mitchell leveled up this past season, not allowing a single touchdown pass as the nearest defender in coverage, despite being targeted 59 times. He picked off five passes in 2022, but he gave up four scores -- he was much more consistent in 2023, though he only had one interception. I'm excited to see how Mitchell performs at Senior Bowl practices next week.


31. Baltimore Ravens
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri


The Ravens' defense has been spectacular this season, but defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Patrick Queen and safety Geno Stone are all set to be free agents this offseason. While they're likely to bring back a couple of these players and might have young replacements on their roster for others, I see a banged-up cornerback group that could use more depth.

Rakestraw would make six cornerbacks off the board in Round 1, which would be the most since the 2020 draft. He has the versatility to play out wide or in the slot. He had just one interception in four college seasons, but he did have 24 career pass breakups, so he knows how to get his hands on throws. I like Rakestraw's fit in Baltimore.


32. San Francisco 49ers
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia


This makes eight offensive tackles in my first mock for the 2024 class, 25% of the entire first round. That would be the most since the 2008 draft when there were also eight in the top 32 (including the No. 1 overall pick). The 49ers have an obvious need at right tackle, as starter Colton McKivitz allowed 11 sacks in the regular season. They need to upgrade in a deep and talented class.

There's some risk with taking Mims, as he started only eight games in college because of injuries and NFL picks in front of him on the Georgia depth chart. But his ceiling is incredibly high; at 6-foot-7, 340 pounds, he has the traits to be a future Pro Bowler if he can put it all together. Mims didn't allow a single sack in 372 career pass-blocking snaps.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Kalli posted:

OTC is usually pretty close on this, their comp pick projections:

https://overthecap.com/projecting-the-2024-compensatory-picks

Jags / Eagles / 49ers / Bills get a 3rd, Ravens a 4th
Jets getting 3 7ths is the good poo poo.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

The cap is fake and all but two 1sts and $30m per year to a WR is a very small market of possible teams. Tyreek was a bit older but he didn’t get close to that return.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

there's a very good chance that you'd need to be higher than that for Fuaga. I think he's the 2nd best OT in the draft, but even at the number 3 OT off the board 15 might be a 2 or 3 spots too late. He'd be a ridiculously good fit for the 9ers though.
His floor might be at #10 with the Jets.
https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/1752374368498233375?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

The Rich Hill chart when used in comparison to someone using the Jimmy Johnson, seems to always always always value trading down. No exceptions. Never trade up.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Ornery and Hornery posted:

I think the Rich Hill chart is more correct than the Jimmy Johnson chart.

The main confounding factor comes from Blue Chip QB prospects in which case the top picks skyrocket in value.

If I was owner/GM, I’d almost always trade out of the top 8 unless I needed QB or LT (and maaaaybe WR).

Yeah in this case anyone trading up for MHJ would be massively wrong in value. Basically only ever trade up for a QB.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Alaois posted:

do you really want Mitch Trubisky Again

He is a white guy who went to UNC, therefore....

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I love Daniels but he also had two likely 1st rounders in Nabers and Brian Thomas and an incredible OL compared to the poo poo Maye was working with.

I think both are top 3 pick worthy.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1759968900316275048?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Zierlein has a lot of his scouting profiles available with number grades.

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/all-positions/all-colleges/all-statuses/2024?page=1

Some interesting data points in this. Nabers highest graded overall at 6.86. JC Latham much higher graded than his Alt/Fashanu/Fuaga tier.
https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1760346606501515385?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Cash Monet posted:

Maye is bigger and has a better arm, that alone makes him a better prospect than Wilson.
Wilson has an incredible arm. Quick compact delivery. Can throw from every arm angle.

No head on his shoulders but I'd probably take Wilson's arm over Maye's if we're just comparing body parts.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Is Penix the only potential 1st round QB throwing?

https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1762521121247695161?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I always like Ringer Draft guide if only for the "shades of" comps.
https://twitter.com/DannyBKelly/status/1762553963671367808?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I think that’s both Zierlein and Kiper with Latham as OT1. That’s interesting.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

The Chris Simms QB Rankings are out.
https://twitter.com/CSimmsQB/status/1765428349738918041?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Mike Anderson was 27 as a rookie and rushed for like 1500 yards and 15 TDs. He went downhill pretty fast but so do most RBs.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Kalli posted:

Official comp picks released, 49ers get an extra 3, 4, 5 and 2 6's


Jets get Mr. Irrelevant. Which is fitting, you see. For an irrelevant team.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Canned Sunshine posted:

I'm ignorant on things like this - what does the hat emoji response indicate?
I'm an old but I know this one. Cap (the picture) means 'Lies'.

He said that the report indicating he did not want to play for the Patriots was a lie.

e: Goddamnit fellow old Kalli beat me to it.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1768653330971258995?s=20

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

All for the Vikings trading up and 4 QBs going in the top 10. That would own.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Is Jerry Rice’s kid any good? Worth a 3rd rounder?

xbilkis posted:

Bowers is gonna go to the Jets now that they don't need a T

or he's gonna fall in Cincy's lap

They still need an OT tbh.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Brian Thomas Jr. is loving awesome though and I would be very cool with taking him in a slight trade down. Definitely a mid-1st guy.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Despite the Zach Wilson love, Simms has been generally good with QBs over the years. His most egregious one lately was Garrett Wilson as WR6.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I read the occasional mock draft from Kiper/Jeremiah, use Dane Brugler's Beast as a reference, and watch JustBombsProductions highlight clips. That's about the extent I'll ever care or have time for as far as draft study.

Here's Kiper's latest.

quote:

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The mystery is gone now, right? Justin Fields was sent to the Steelers over the weekend for a conditional Day 3 pick in 2025, which means Chicago's quarterback depth chart looks like this: Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien. The franchise stayed out of the veteran market in free agency. The Bears are going to take a passer with this pick, and all signs point to it being Williams, my top-ranked prospect.

The good thing for the rookie who takes over? He will have solid playmakers around him on offense. The trade for wideout Keenan Allen was a savvy move by general manager Ryan Poles, and running back signing D'Andre Swift will alleviate pressure on the new signal-caller. Allen and DJ Moore are a really good and versatile receiver duo. Poles & Co. also have some flexibility with the No. 9 overall pick: Will they try to help their defense now?

2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Here's where the intrigue begins. Daniels or Drake Maye ... or is it possible J.J. McCarthy is in play? I don't think anyone has a great handle on which quarterback the Commanders prefer just yet. I have Daniels over Maye in my position rankings -- both are in my top six overall -- and McCarthy is a distant fourth. There's no consensus around the league, though, which makes this pick the pivot point in the draft.

One quarterback we know who won't be involved in Washington is 2023 starter Sam Howell, who was dealt to the Seahawks last week. The Commanders brought in Marcus Mariota to serve as the backup to whichever rookie they select. And like the Bears, they have a good pair of wideouts in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, though there are questions along the offensive line.

3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Just like the two teams picking before them, the Patriots traded away their top quarterback from last season, as Mac Jones was sent to Jacksonville last week. New England wouldn't pass up a quarterback here, right? I'm not as confident as I was before free agency began. The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal, and he could be the bridge option to a rookie. But then when you look at their other signings, are we sure they're not thinking beyond 2024 already?

What I'm saying is: If a team that fell in love with the third quarterback in this class offered a bevy of draft capital, wouldn't New England have to consider moving down? That would give the organization multiple first-round picks to improve the entire roster, both this year and in 2025. This is not a team likely to compete this season. Las Vegas, Denver, Minnesota could be options. Sliding down a few spots would still allow the Patriots to add a rookie starter at receiver or offensive tackle, both positions which are deep in Round 1.

Right now, I'm sticking with my gut and Maye, who has a really high ceiling if he can clean up a couple of small issues with his mechanics.

4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

No team needs a wide receiver as much as the Cardinals. Marquise Brown just signed a one-year deal with the Super Bowl champs, making second-year receiver Michael Wilson nominally the No. 1 guy for quarterback Kyler Murray. Luckily, Arizona is in a great spot to add one of my highest-graded wideout prospects of the past decade. The 6-foot-3 Harrison, my No. 2 overall prospect, has elite size, speed, hands and route-running ability -- he has the tools to be a star. This fit makes perfect sense.

5. Los Angeles Chargers
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Chargers' salary-cap crunch led to the release of Mike Williams and trade of Keenan Allen, leaving the wide receiver corps depleted. They can't go into the season with Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, who disappointed as a rookie last season, as their top two wideouts. So as much as right tackle could still be in play, this is the spot to nab a receiver to be Justin Herbert's No. 1 target.

In any other draft class, Nabers and Rome Odunze would be the far-and-away top-ranked wideouts -- but this isn't any other draft class. There likely will be three taken in the top 10, and a handful of others throughout Round 1. This is an extremely talented group. What I like about Nabers is his ability to create separation and then break tackles after the catch. He's a fantastic player.

6. New York Giants
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

This would make back-to-back-to-back quarterbacks at the top of the board, and then back-to-back-to-back wideouts right after that. That's how loaded these groups are. The Giants have improved their receiving corps over the past two years -- Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson are their top three guys right now -- but they don't have a true No. 1 guy who can dominate on the outside. They could add that in Odunze, a touchdown machine in a 6-foot-3 frame.

There have been rumblings about New York being a team to watch for the quarterbacks, but I just don't see it. The team is committed to Daniel Jones for at least one more season because of the extension he signed last year, and I think this is too high to take J.J. McCarthy. Are the Giants willing to mortgage their future to try to move into the Patriots' spot at No. 3? The most likely option might be adding a playmaker for Jones and seeing if he can return to his 2022 form. Then again, if Jones struggles, coach Brian Daboll & Co. might again be drafting around this spot in 2025.

7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Nothing over the past month has changed my mind about the Titans taking the draft's top offensive tackle and starting him on the left side as a rookie. In fact, after they released Andre Dillard last week, the need is even more severe. Alt started 33 games at left tackle in college and surrendered just six sacks, four of which came when he was a true freshman in 2021. He would upgrade an O-line that ranked 31st in sack rate per dropback (11.1%) last season.

8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

This is another pairing that makes too much sense. It's a combo of biggest positional need and best available prospect, as Turner is No. 9 on my Big Board. The Falcons, of course, made the biggest splash in free agency by signing quarterback Kirk Cousins, but their defense is mostly the same. They have to get better along the defensive line; as I mentioned in my Mock Draft 2.0, they ranked last in the league in pass rush win rate (30.9%) last season.

Turner had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons, and he improved his pressure rates every season. He's the clear No. 1 edge rusher in this class. New coach Raheem Morris would get the best out of him.

9. Chicago Bears
Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

Before the trade for Keenan Allen, I would have said the Bears should do everything they could to try to get one of the top three wideouts in this class. That's no longer necessary, though Allen will be a free agent in 2025 unless the team gives him extension. Instead, Chicago has options with its second first-round pick. I'm not totally sold on Braxton Jones being the long-term answer at left tackle, which means offensive line could be in play. And a defense that had just 30 sacks last season (31st in the league) could use help too. So let's add an edge-rusher on the other side of Montez Sweat.

Verse's testing numbers at the combine were impressive, even if I didn't love his 2023 tape. He was too inconsistent at times. But at 6-foot-4, 254 pounds, he has a complete set of tools to be a devastating pass-rusher at the next level, if he can put everything together. The Bears have made a few shrewd moves this offseason, and if their rookie quarterback comes in and plays well, they could be challengers in the NFC North.

10. New York Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The Jets have to maximize their window with 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That's what I keep coming back to. So after they were able to sign left tackle Tyron Smith to a one-year deal, who's the player they could take here to make the most immediate impact? For me, it's Bowers, a tremendous pass-catching tight end who could elevate the offense and provide a safety blanket for Rodgers.

Either way, this draft will be a delicate balance for general manager Joe Douglas, who has to think about the future while also trying to win now with Rodgers. That's also why I wouldn't rule out a tackle here; Smith and right tackle Morgan Moses, who the Jets acquired in a trade last week, will be free agents in 2025. It's a tough challenge for Douglas.

11. Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The Vikings are now the most interesting team in this draft. They just acquired another first-round pick in a deal with the Texans (No. 23), giving them the capital to move up and take a quarterback if they got the opportunity. But how far could they move up? Remember, it takes two sides to make a trade. Would the Giants want to risk missing out on one of the top receivers? Would the Titans want to risk missing out on their preferred tackle? Would the Falcons or Bears want to risk not getting the edge rusher they like? There's not an easy match, unless Minnesota is willing to give up a lot of future picks, which is certainly possible.

In this scenario, the Vikings could land their quarterback of the future anyway. With Kirk Cousins gone and Sam Darnold added on a one-year deal, it's clear they have to add competition. All sides point to that competition coming from a rookie. McCarthy is the No. 21 prospect on my Big Board, but I can see why some teams would covet him much higher. He has intriguing physical traits and can make every throw. Either way, if Minnesota really wants to try to move up in Round 1 for a quarterback, I could see it waiting until draft day to see how the board shakes out.

12. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

The Broncos have been quiet in free agency. Are they really comfortable going into the season with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback? They're running out of options, unless they can find a way to move up in the draft ... or if they liked someone from the second tier of passers. Nix, Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) and Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) are likely to be off the board by the time Denver picks again, which is No. 76 overall, as it doesn't own a second-round pick. So could Sean Payton & Co. instead take one here or trade down a few picks in Round 1?

That's the way I'm leaning right now. Nix isn't going to be for every team, but Payton might see a little Drew Brees in him. He's a super-fast processor who can make every throw and was one of the most productive passers in college football the past two seasons. He had 74 touchdown passes and just 10 interceptions after transferring from Oregon. The Ducks' offense relied on quick strikes, though, and he wasn't often asked to push the ball downfield. He averaged just 6.3 air yards per attempt last season, which ranked 120th out of 125 FBS qualifiers. Taking Nix in Round 1 would be a way for the Broncos to try to snag a franchise quarterback, and if they moved down a few spots, they could regain some valuable capital. But again, they have to really believe in his potential to do it.

13. Las Vegas Raiders
JC Latham, OT, Alabama

In my last mock draft, I had the Raiders taking the best interior penetrator in the class in Byron Murphy II (Texas). Well, that no longer makes sense after they gave free agent Christian Wilkins a massive deal, plugging a hole in the middle of their defense. I'm not ruling out edge rusher or quarterback as a possibility with this pick -- they did add Gardner Minshew in free agency to at the very least be a bridge passer -- but I keep staring at their depth chart and wondering who's going to play right tackle. Let's fill that void with Latham, the best right tackle in this class.

Latham started 27 games at the position in college, surrendering just two sacks and 16 total pressures. He can also dominate in the run game with his 6-foot-6, 342-pound frame. Las Vegas is remaking its run game without back Josh Jacobs, who signed with Green Bay, and Latham could be an integral part of its rebuild. The Raiders ranked 28th in yards per rush attempt (3.7) last season.

14. New Orleans Saints
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

As I mentioned last month, the Saints have seen 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning struggle for two seasons; how much longer will they trot him out there at left tackle? In a deep and talented tackle class, they could upgrade in Round 1. Fashanu, who only turned 21 in December, has fantastic movement traits as both a pass- and run-blocker. At 6-foot-6, 312 pounds, he looks like he could play tight end. He started 21 games on the left side in college.

New Orleans might also be in the market for a wideout to pair with Chris Olave, who has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to start his career. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) and Xavier Worthy (Texas) are the next receivers up in my rankings.

15. Indianapolis Colts
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Finally, the first cornerback off the board. It's not because this isn't a good group of corners -- it's more about the elite prospects at other positions. I have four CBs in my top 25 overall but don't have top-10 grades on any of them. The best of the bunch is Mitchell, who has been moving up since a spectacular performance in Mobile, Alabama, in early February at Senior Bowl practices. Then he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, making my list of risers. He had six interceptions over his final two college seasons.

As for the pairing in Indianapolis, the Colts don't have a No. 1 corner and desperately have to add talent at the position. Luckily they're in a good spot to do that in this draft.

16. Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

This is another team whose free agent moves haven't filled the need I identified in my previous mock draft. Former starting guard Damien Lewis got a big deal from Carolina, while the other guard spot is going to be an open competition. Seattle has to add O-line reinforcements with this pick.

Fautanu, my top-ranked guard, played mostly as the left tackle in college, starting 28 games. But he played 114 snaps at guard too. And while he has the frame to be a tackle in the NFL (6-foot-4, 317 pounds), I see the potential for him to be an All-Pro guard. He is hard-nosed and nasty when he latches on to defenders. The Seahawks offense will look a lot different with new coordinator Ryan Grubb, but they would do well to add Fautanu to build up the interior of their line.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Jaguars have been busy in free agency, adding defensive tackle Arik Armstead, center Mitch Morse, safety Darnell Savage and wideout Gabe Davis, among others. The position they haven't addressed enough? Cornerback, where they added veteran Ronald Darby but could still require reinforcements to play on the other side of Tyson Campbell. I like the fit of Arnold in Jacksonville, as he took a major step forward in 2023, developing into a shutdown corner. He picked off five passes and allowed only four receptions of 20-plus yards as the nearest defender in coverage.

Wide receiver is another position the Jags could consider. I'm not sold on Davis as a replacement for Calvin Ridley, who signed a big deal with the Titans in free agency. Davis might be better as a No. 3 wideout with a rookie sharing snaps alongside Christian Kirk.

18. Cincinnati Bengals
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Bengals let right tackle Jonah Williams leave in free agency, opening up a void at the position. I don't see a replacement on the roster. They could fill it with Fuaga, one of my favorite prospects in this class. He is phenomenal in both the run and pass game, and he started 25 games at RT for the Beavers.

Cincinnati likely will also have its eyes on the second group of receivers, as it brought back Tee Higgins on the franchise tag but No. 3 wideout Tyler Boyd is still a free agent. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) is a potential fit. I also thought about defensive tackle with Byron Murphy II (Texas) still available in this scenario.

19. Los Angeles Rams
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

I didn't have defensive tackle on my list of needs for the Rams ahead of free agency, but that all changed Friday. Aaron Donald announced his retirement, and the future Hall of Famer leaves a giant hole to fill. L.A. got great play from rookie front-seven defenders Byron Young and Kobie Turner last season, but it has to upgrade its talent level on that side of the ball. I see this pick as either a defensive lineman or a cornerback.

Murphy is the best interior pass-rusher in this class, and at 6-foot-1, 297 pounds, he has a similar build to Donald. I'm not saying he will became a perennially All-Pro, but he has intriguing tools at the position. He had five sacks and created 33 pressures last season. This match makes a lot of sense. The Rams haven't picked in Round 1 since 2016, so we can never rule out a trade down, either.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Just a few weeks ago, at the NFL combine, here's what Steelers general manager Omar Khan said to reporters about quarterback Kenny Pickett: "I have full faith in Kenny." A lot has changed since then, huh? Pickett was traded to the Eagles after Pittsburgh signed Russell Wilson, and then the team traded a conditional Day 3 pick in 2025 for Justin Fields, completing a total overhaul of the QB depth chart. For new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to really thrive, though, the Steelers should add a replacement for wideout Diontae Johnson, who was traded to Carolina.

Thomas, who ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, has a tremendous blend of speed and size (6-foot-3). He caught 17 touchdown passes last season, leading the FBS. Pittsburgh had just 13 total touchdown passes in 2023. Thomas and George Pickens could form an exciting pass-catching duo.

21. Miami Dolphins
Graham Barton, C/G, Duke

Miami has lost a few starters over the past few weeks as a result of their salary-cap situation, including guard Robert Hunt, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker and cornerback Xavien Howard. The organization could go a few different directions with this pick. I still like the pairing of Barton and the Dolphins, though, because of the way he could improve the middle of this O-line. Barton played mostly left tackle in college, but he has the traits to move inside and command the game. Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate (49.2%) last season, so it has to improve.

22. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

This has been an offseason of change for the Eagles, who have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and have seen two stalwarts retire in center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. And after a rough end to their season, coach Nick Sirianni finds himself with a few holes on his roster. I almost slotted in a receiver to add to Jalen Hurts' fantastic set of skill-position talent -- how about Xavier Worthy (Texas)? -- but I see defense as the bigger problem.

Philadelphia ranked 30th in both points allowed per game (25.2) and QBR allowed (55.7), and it was 31st in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,125). Veteran starting corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry are each on the wrong side of 30. Wiggins could step in and play a huge role for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. At 6-foot-1, 173 pounds, he's slender, but he has elite speed. He ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine.

23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU through CLE)
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

We're back around to the Vikings, who acquired this pick in a deal with the Texans last week. I gave them a Kirk Cousins replacement at No. 11, and if they're keeping this selection, they have to address a secondary which ranked 28th in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,019) last season. I like the front-seven additions of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, but Minnesota hasn't made moves at cornerback.

I'm a huge fan of DeJean, who's still recovering from a broken leg suffered in November. He's a ball hawk -- he had seven interceptions over his final 23 college games -- with excellent technique. He also isn't afraid of sticking his head in and making a tackle.

24. Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

How will the Cowboys replace long-time left tackle Tyron Smith, who just signed with the Jets? Based on their lack of moves over the past 10 days, they might be thinking this pick is their best bet. And looking at my rankings, they're probably right. Guyton, Amarius Mims (Georgia), Jordan Morgan (Arizona) and Roger Rosengarten (Washington) could all be in play in the final 10 picks of Round 1. Of those four, only Morgan played the majority of his snaps at left tackle, but I think Guyton has the highest ceiling. He started just 14 games in college; he has outstanding physical tools to mold.

Dallas also has a hole to fill at center, as Tyler Biadasz left in free agency. Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) could be in play.

25. Green Bay Packers
Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA

Green Bay is another team that might seek one of these offensive tackles -- David Bakhtiari was released last week -- but I wonder if this is a landing spot for the best pure edge rusher in this class. Sure, it drafted Lukas Van Ness a year ago in Round 1, but he's more of a power rusher and run-stopper than a true double-digit sack machine.

Latu put up 111 quarterback pressures over the past two seasons, racking up 23.5 sacks. He has elite pass-rushing skills and is already advanced in his technique. The reason he's not a surefire top-15 pick is because he has some medical questions; he medically retired from football due to a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. I love his fit with the Packers, though.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Bucs are running it back from 2023, with quarterback Baker Mayfield, wideout Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David among the players re-signing. General manager Jason Licht has done well with a tough salary-cap situation -- Tampa Bay held a $35.1 million dead-cap charge for Tom Brady last year -- and his team should challenge again to win the NFC South (though Atlanta is improved too).

So how can the Bucs improve with this pick? I see room for a third wideout to take the top off the defense. And what better way to do that than with the fastest prospect in NFL combine history? At 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, Worthy is small, but he is electric with the ball in his hands. He'll help Mayfield's yards-per-attempt average just by running past corners on crossers. He had 26 touchdowns over three college seasons.

27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Chop Robinson, OLB, Penn State

I thought hard about interior offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon), who could be a plug-and-play guard starter in Arizona. But this Cardinals defense needs addressing. They had just 33 sacks last season, which ranked 30th in the league, and they ranked 32nd in both QBR allowed (57.3) and rushing yards allowed (143.2).

The 6-foot-3, 254-pound Robinson had an inconsistent 2023 season -- four sacks, down from 5.5 in 2022 -- but I love his explosion off the ball and his closing speed after he makes a move. He pops on tape every time I watch Penn State from the past two seasons. He also ran an eye-popping 4.48-second 40-yard dash at the combine, an elite number for his size. This is right around the range in which teams will take a chance on high-upside prospects, and that's Robinson.

28. Buffalo Bills
T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State

Buffalo has turned over its safety position, with Jordan Poyer signing in Miami and Micah Hyde still unsigned, but it also must find a way to add talent at cornerback. The organization is up against the salary cap, so the draft likely will be the best way to do that. Kaiir Elam, a first-round pick in 2022, was a healthy scratch at times last season, and he ended up playing in just three games. Could they find a starter this late in Round 1? I think so.

Tampa leveled up in 2023, allowing only one touchdown as the nearest defender in coverage. Recovery from a hamstring injury prevented him from working out at the combine, but I see really solid speed and traits on tape. If the Bills decide to go offense with this selection, a wide receiver to replace Gabe Davis could be the play.

29. Detroit Lions
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

How good is this Detroit roster? General manager Brad Holmes has done a stellar job since he was hired in 2021. He filled the Lions' biggest offseason hole with the trade for underrated cornerback Carlton Davis, which gives him some flexibility here. I'd like to see the Lions add another playmaker for quarterback Jared Goff.

Legette is rising in my rankings after he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash and tested well in the other drills at the combine. While I will quibble with South Carolina for listing him at 6-foot-3 when he's actually 6-foot-1, I won't hold that against him. He had a fantastic 2023 season, with 1,255 receiving yards while averaging 17.7 yards per catch. He dominated cornerbacks on crossing routes, lining up in the slot and outside. This is a way to keep improving the Detroit offense.

30. Baltimore Ravens
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Ravens' trade of Morgan Moses piqued my interest. Do they believe 2022 fourth-rounder Daniel Faalele is ready to step into the starting job at right tackle, or are they planning to draft a tackle? And could the answer be yes to both? I'm leaning toward the latter outcome. Faalele hasn't shown enough to be the entrenched starter, and maybe general manager Eric DeCosta is thinking about the future along the offensive line. This is the draft to do that.

Mims is the perfect case of a high-ceiling, high-risk prospect. The risk comes in that he has started only eight college games because of injuries and draft picks in front of him. The ceiling comes in when you watch him beat up on defenders, and the way he can move his feet at 340 pounds. He didn't allow a single sack at Georgia. Offensive line coaches will want to try to mold him because of his elite tools.

31. San Francisco 49ers
Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington

The 49ers have been able to make several moves in free agency to make tweaks to their roster, acquiring veterans on short-term deals to build out their depth. One position they haven't added? Offensive tackle, where soon-to-be-36-year-old Trent Williams is holding down the blindside and 2020 fifth-rounder Colton McKivitz just started every game on the right side. Williams ranked first in the league in pass block win rate among tackles (95.8%). McKivitz? He was 50th out of the 69 who played in at least 10 games. That's not good enough. I'd like to see San Francisco bring in some competition.

I thought Rosengarten might return to college for another year; he could have been a top-10 pick with some more seasoning. He might be a steal here, though, as the right tackle is aggressive as a run-blocker and solid in pass protection (though he had his worst game of the season in the national championship loss). I really liked his tape when I went back through after the season ended.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Kansas City signed speedster Marquise Brown to a one-year deal in free agency, but that shouldn't prevent the franchise from adding another receiver early in this draft. Mitchell is a rising prospect who could complement Brown and Rashee Rice. He ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the combine and had an 11-foot-4 broad jump, which tied for second among all prospects. He has excellent hands, catching 11 touchdown passes last season. He can make defenders miss after the catch, too.

I also thought about offensive tackle for the Chiefs, but I just slotted in seven above this pick. The last time there were eight OTs taken in Round 1? The 2008 draft. Kansas City has a hole at left tackle if it doesn't bring back free agent Donovan Smith.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I am very here for QBs going 1-4 and the Jets trading up for MHJ.
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1770074950008734106?s=20

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Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Professor Funk posted:

A trade up from 10 to 5 for just a 2025 2nd feels like fantasyland stuff
I would trade our 2025 1st to move up. That feels more realistic.

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